Reid VanScoter

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AASEA	22	22	101	4.01	3.18	20.6%	7.0%	—	K 16.7% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.03
2025	26	AASEA	21	21	87	5.38	4.26	18.2%	8.6%	—	K 14.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 5.34
2026	27	MIX2 levels	46	0	52	4.70	2.67	25.8%	10.3%	—	K 21.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.13
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	1	0	1	4.94	4.94	16.3%	10.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBSEA	16	0	17	4.96	5.01	16.8%	10.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBSEA	23	0	24	5.04	5.13	17.0%	10.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsChad Bell (age 28) · Carlos Teller (age 28) · Matt Whitehouse (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%16.3%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	143	605	157	35	6	100%	5.7	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	1.2%	3.27	2.93	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	25	25	143	605	157	35	6	100%	5.7	26.0%	5.8%	20.2%	1.0%	3.27	2.19	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	412	85	29	7	100%	4.6	16.7%	7.7%	9.0%	2.5%	4.01	4.03	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	412	85	29	7	100%	4.6	16.7%	7.7%	9.0%	2.5%	4.01	4.03	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	412	85	29	7	100%	4.6	20.6%	7.0%	13.6%	1.7%	4.01	3.18	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	21	21	87	396	72	34	11	100%	4.1	14.7%	9.4%	5.3%	4.2%	5.38	5.34	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	21	21	87	396	72	34	11	100%	4.1	14.7%	9.4%	5.3%	4.2%	5.38	5.34	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	21	21	87	396	72	34	11	100%	4.1	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	2.8%	5.38	4.26	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	233	60	24	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	0.9%	4.70	3.13	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	233	60	24	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	0.9%	4.70	3.13	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	52	233	60	24	2	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.3%	15.5%	0.9%	4.70	2.67	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.3%	10.4%	5.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	53	0	55	234	39	25	7	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	2.9%	4.96	5.01	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	45	0	47	198	34	21	6	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.7%	6.2%	3.1%	5.04	5.13	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	16	0	17	72	12	8	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	2.9%	4.96	5.01	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	23	0	24	101	17	11	3	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.7%	6.2%	3.1%	5.04	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	41	175	30	19	5	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	3.1%	5.01	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	92	24	0%	1.1	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	3.1%	5.01	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		114	68	383	1646	298	134	36	60%	3.4	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	2.2%	4.14	3.81	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	36	200	860	155	70	19	60%	3.4	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	2.2%	4.14	3.81	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 33 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.27 (+0.57)K% 29.2% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.810	23.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 19 IPFIP 4.33 → 4.53 (+0.19)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.22%	—	×0.860	17.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.48%	—	×0.900	12.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.33 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 87 IPFIP 4.18 → 5.34 (+1.16)K% 18.2% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.810	14.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.59%	—	×1.100	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.800	×1.200	4.16%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 101 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.03 (+0.85)K% 20.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.63%	—	×0.810	16.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.04%	—	×1.100	7.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.70%	÷0.820	×1.200	2.49%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 143 IPFIP 2.19 → 2.93 (+0.74)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.95%	—	×0.770	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×1.150	6.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.012	×1.250	1.22%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.19 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reid VanScoter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	16.3%	10.4%	2.8%	—	5.07	16.9%	6.2%	102	+0.13	—	—	—
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	78
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	77
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	77
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	76
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	75
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	74
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	74
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	73
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	73
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	72
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	71
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	71
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	71
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	70
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	70
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	69
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	69
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	69
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	67
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.7%	10.6%	1.13	4.97
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*