Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 136 | 570 | 117 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.39 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 136 | 570 | 117 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 13.9% | 1.9% | 4.18 | 3.27 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 150 | 613 | 157 | 35 | 7 | 96% | 5.6 | 20.0% | 6.6% | 13.4% | 1.0% | 2.93 | 2.79 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 150 | 613 | 157 | 35 | 7 | 96% | 5.6 | 25.6% | 5.7% | 19.9% | 1.1% | 2.93 | 2.32 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 175 | 731 | 125 | 58 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 3.61 | 3.72 | +3.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 175 | 731 | 125 | 58 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | 3.61 | 3.63 | +3.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 6 | 6 | 25 | 107 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 15.0% | 5.6% | 5.11 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 6 | 6 | 25 | 107 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 15.0% | 5.6% | 5.11 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 21 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 28.8% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 1.4% | 2.70 | 3.33 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 21 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 28.8% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 1.4% | 2.70 | 3.34 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 33 | 137 | 33 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 4.36 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 33 | 137 | 33 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 0 | 25 | 111 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.68 | 5.88 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 0 | 25 | 111 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 5.68 | 5.82 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 2 | 58 | 237 | 48 | 16 | 5 | 4% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 3.59 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 2 | 58 | 237 | 48 | 16 | 5 | 4% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 2.1% | 3.59 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 26 | 114 | 37 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 17.6% | 4.0% | 5.96 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 26 | 114 | 37 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.5% | 10.5% | 21.9% | 4.4% | 5.96 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 47 | 1 | 44 | 181 | 42 | 20 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 47 | 1 | 44 | 181 | 42 | 20 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 23.2% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 21 | 0 | 24 | 104 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SF | 36 | 0 | 37 | 158 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SF | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | SF | — | — | 61 | 262 | 46 | 22 | 8 | — | — | 17.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | SF | — | — | 61 | 258 | 46 | 22 | 8 | — | — | 18.0% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 47 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 41 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SF | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 35 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 5.23 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SF | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 29 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 5.23 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 376 | 21 | 456 | 1932 | 371 | 174 | 59 | 6% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.30 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 9 | 200 | 847 | 163 | 76 | 26 | 6% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 327 | 91 | 712 | 2982 | 555 | 243 | 73 | 28% | 2.2 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.91 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 92 | 26 | 200 | 837 | 156 | 68 | 21 | 28% | 2.2 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Borucki (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.10 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 153 | +0.70 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.51 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 241 | 74 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 73 |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 71 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 71 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 70 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 70 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 70 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 69 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 202 | 69 |
| Chris Narveson L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 69 |
| Dana Eveland L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .272 | 4.91 | 14.7% | 10.0% | 21 | +1.08 | 2.42 | 129 | 69 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 69 |
| Dan Jennings L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 244 | 69 |
| David Huff L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 67 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 67 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.21 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .376 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 53 | +0.64 | 4.07 | 424 | 66 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.92 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.40 | 22.8% | 18.4% | 138 | -0.52 | 2.22 | 405 | 66 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.05 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.90 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.85 | 3.72 | 181 | 65 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 65 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 1.30 | 4.74 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |