Joe Elbis

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#237ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	AARI	3	3	10	9.00	1.50	28.0%	8.0%	—	K 20.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 2.55
2023	20	MIX2 levels	24	24	115	3.75	3.87	19.2%	10.1%	—	K 14.6% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.78
2024	21	MIX2 levels	24	24	135	3.39	3.35	19.9%	8.3%	—	K 15.6% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.06
2025	22	No MLB games played
2026	23	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	1	1	1	4.59	4.59	18.7%	8.6%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	9	9	55	4.39	4.34	19.7%	8.1%	0.6
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	13	13	78	4.32	4.29	20.3%	8.0%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

CompsMicah Owings (age 24) · Trystan Vrieling (age 23) · Tyler Herb (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%18.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP155

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$18M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	54	218	59	7	4	83%	4.5	18.8%	3.9%	14.8%	2.6%	3.52	3.44	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	54	218	59	7	4	83%	4.5	27.1%	3.2%	23.9%	1.8%	3.52	2.26	—
2022	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	10	50	14	4	0	100%	3.3	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	0.0%	9.00	2.55	—
2022	19	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	10	50	14	4	0	100%	3.3	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.00	1.50	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	504	97	51	10	100%	4.8	14.6%	11.7%	2.9%	2.6%	3.75	4.78	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	504	97	51	10	100%	4.8	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	2.0%	3.75	3.87	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	15.6%	9.4%	6.1%	2.0%	3.39	4.06	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	15.6%	9.4%	6.1%	2.0%	3.39	4.06	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	19.9%	8.3%	11.5%	1.6%	3.39	3.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.7%	8.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.59	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	127	537	106	43	16	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.1%	11.7%	2.9%	4.48	4.43	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	117	496	101	40	14	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.41	4.38	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	112	471	96	38	14	100%	5.9	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	106	446	91	37	14	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.46	4.49	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	98	414	83	35	13	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.4%	11.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.62	+0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	89	375	74	33	13	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.4%	4.70	4.80	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	80	336	65	30	12	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	3.6%	4.88	5.00	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	70	296	56	28	12	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.9%	5.09	5.23	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	55	232	46	19	6	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.1%	11.7%	2.7%	4.39	4.34	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	78	329	67	26	9	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.29	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	86	363	74	29	10	100%	6.1	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.32	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	89	376	76	31	11	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.40	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	86	363	73	31	11	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.46	4.52	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	80	338	67	29	11	100%	6.2	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.70	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	73	308	60	28	11	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	3.4%	4.77	4.89	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	65	274	52	26	10	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.7%	4.97	5.11	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	611	2581	513	219	79	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.51	4.18	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	72	26	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.51	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		63	61	314	1335	213	125	30	97%	5.0	15.9%	9.4%	6.5%	2.2%	3.72	4.17	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	849	135	80	19	97%	5.0	15.9%	9.4%	6.5%	2.2%	3.72	4.17	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 90 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.97 (+0.85)K% 20.1% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.05%	—	×0.770	15.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.75%	—	×1.150	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷0.875	×1.250	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 45 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.22 (+0.41)K% 19.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.58%	—	×0.810	15.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.100	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷1.229	×1.200	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 74 IPFIP 4.49 → 5.53 (+1.04)K% 18.3% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.29%	—	×0.770	14.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.28%	—	×1.150	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷0.952	×1.250	3.60%

Result: FIP 4.49 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 41 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.38 (+0.74)K% 21.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.02%	—	×0.740	15.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.180	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷1.003	×1.300	0.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 10 IPFIP 1.75 → 2.55 (+0.80)K% 28.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.740	20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.180	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.062	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.75 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL D-backs · 40 IPFIP 2.36 → 3.80 (+1.44)K% 28.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.93%	—	×0.680	19.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.52%	—	×1.250	3.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.986	×1.400	3.57%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.36 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 14 IPFIP 1.88 → 2.48 (+0.60)K% 22.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.740	16.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×1.180	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.923	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.88 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Elbis (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.41	20.1%	12.1%	356	-0.18	—	—	—
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	90
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	90
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	87
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	86
Brian Howard R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	17.6%	8.1%	2.0%	.356	5.50	17.6%	8.5%	180	+1.74	3.67	490	86
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	86
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	86
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	86
Austin Voth R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	17.7%	8.6%	1.9%	.275	4.29	18.5%	10.7%	364	+0.57	3.41	1,057	85
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	85
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	84
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	84
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	84
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	84
Reggie McClain R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	15.0%	6.2%	3.3%	.315	4.26	16.2%	9.0%	227	-0.18	2.99	452	84
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	84
Max Rajcic R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	18.7%	8.5%	2.7%	.307	4.65	17.6%	8.2%	159	+0.54	3.15	413	84
Jose Reyes R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP	4.25	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	.289	5.11	11.0%	2.8%	100	+0.86	4.25	225	83
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.27	19.7%	10.4%	253	+0.39	3.86	496	83
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	106	19.7%	8.4%	1.22	4.59
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*