Joe Elbis — OGILVIE

Joe Elbis P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.5 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%15.8%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD5060

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	54	218	59	7	4	83%	4.5	18.8%	3.9%	14.8%	2.6%	3.52	3.44	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	54	218	59	7	4	83%	4.5	27.1%	3.2%	23.9%	1.8%	3.52	2.26	—
2022	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	10	50	14	4	0	100%	3.3	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	0.0%	9.00	2.55	—
2022	19	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	10	50	14	4	0	100%	3.3	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.00	1.50	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	504	97	51	10	100%	4.8	14.6%	11.7%	2.9%	2.6%	3.75	4.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	504	97	51	10	100%	4.8	14.6%	11.7%	2.9%	2.6%	3.75	4.78	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	504	97	51	10	100%	4.8	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	2.0%	3.75	3.87	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	15.6%	9.4%	6.1%	2.0%	3.39	4.06	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	15.6%	9.4%	6.1%	2.0%	3.39	4.06	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	19.9%	8.3%	11.5%	1.6%	3.39	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	ARI	2	2	12	51	8	5	1	100%	6.0	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	2.8%	4.81	4.81	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	159	672	120	56	19	100%	5.7	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	2.8%	4.63	4.55	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	161	681	129	54	19	100%	5.8	19.0%	7.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.48	4.40	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	161	681	134	53	19	100%	6.0	19.7%	7.8%	11.9%	2.8%	4.39	4.34	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	159	670	132	53	19	100%	6.1	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	2.8%	4.38	4.37	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	154	650	128	52	19	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	147	621	120	51	19	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.52	4.59	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	138	584	111	50	19	100%	6.0	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	3.3%	4.67	4.77	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	129	545	101	49	19	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.5%	4.85	4.97	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	119	504	92	47	19	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.3%	8.8%	3.8%	5.06	5.19	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	68	287	51	24	8	100%	5.7	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	2.6%	4.55	4.47	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	107	452	86	36	12	100%	5.9	19.0%	7.9%	11.1%	2.6%	4.40	4.32	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	128	540	106	42	14	100%	6.1	19.7%	7.8%	11.9%	2.6%	4.31	4.26	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	135	570	113	45	15	100%	6.1	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	2.7%	4.29	4.28	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	137	578	113	47	16	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.1%	11.6%	2.8%	4.34	4.37	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	134	566	110	47	17	100%	6.1	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.50	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	127	536	102	46	17	100%	6.0	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.57	4.67	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	120	507	94	45	17	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.3%	4.74	4.86	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	112	473	86	44	17	100%	5.9	18.2%	9.3%	8.8%	3.6%	4.95	5.08	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	179	1069	4513	862	376	132	100%	6.0	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.50	4.15	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	161	70	25	100%	6.0	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.50	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		63	61	314	1335	213	125	30	97%	5.0	15.9%	9.4%	6.5%	2.2%	3.72	4.17	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	849	135	80	19	97%	5.0	15.9%	9.4%	6.5%	2.2%	3.72	4.17	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Elbis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	15.8%	9.0%	2.8%	—	4.43	18.8%	10.8%	482	-0.38	—	—	—
Jordan Milbrath R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	15.4%	8.7%	2.7%	.350	4.06	18.1%	6.6%	180	-0.30	3.19	386	90
Michael Lorenzen R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	14.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.289	3.56	20.1%	12.0%	214	-1.02	3.17	1,178	89
Brandon Barker R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	14.2%	7.8%	3.1%	.283	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	128	-0.25	3.69	463	88
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	88
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	87
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	87
Will Warren R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP	3.83	18.4%	8.6%	2.2%	.299	4.06	23.5%	14.5%	424	+0.23	3.82	695	87
Barrett Astin R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP	3.98	15.0%	9.9%	1.6%	.304	3.77	18.4%	10.9%	152	-0.21	3.71	303	87
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	87
Rainy Lara R 2015 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP	4.33	13.9%	7.5%	2.7%	.305	4.94	11.4%	2.4%	108	+0.61	4.33	242	87
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	86
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	86
Benton Moss R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	15.8%	7.8%	2.1%	.297	4.75	15.1%	9.1%	172	+0.85	3.90	310	86
Nick Martinez R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	13.6%	7.5%	2.4%	.288	4.74	13.3%	7.5%	287	+0.52	2.94	1,134	86
Bret Helton R 2016 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	12.7%	10.4%	2.7%	.276	4.74	13.7%	2.8%	177	-0.08	4.02	312	86
Jeff Thompson R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP	4.51	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	.306	4.40	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.11	3.67	321	85
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	85
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	85
Dylan Covey R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	12.9%	8.3%	1.6%	.278	4.82	16.3%	6.0%	260	+0.89	3.59	614	85
Jose Reyes R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP	4.25	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	.289	5.11	11.0%	2.8%	100	+0.86	4.25	225	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	148	18.7%	8.4%	1.17	4.61
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14