Joe Elbis — OGILVIE

Joe Elbis P Hillsboro Hops

+1.1 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.8 · 2029

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.8%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.2%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	A	Visalia Rawhide	12	10	54	218	59	7	4	18.8%	3.9%	2.6%	3.52	3.46	+0.9
2022	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	10	50	14	4	0	20.7%	9.4%	0.0%	9.00	2.55	+0.3
2023	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	24	24	115	504	97	51	10	14.6%	11.7%	2.7%	3.75	4.83	+0.6
2024	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	15.6%	9.4%	2.0%	3.39	4.06	+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	ARI	22	22	120	507	100	49	14	19.8%	9.6%	2.8%	4.55	4.55	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	ARI	25	25	139	587	122	53	16	20.8%	9.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.39	+1.4
2028	25	MLB	ARI	28	28	153	645	137	56	18	21.3%	8.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.31	+1.7
2029	26	MLB	ARI	29	29	160	674	145	58	19	21.5%	8.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.29	+1.8
2030	27	MLB	ARI	30	30	162	686	148	59	19	21.5%	8.6%	2.8%	4.30	4.30	+1.8
2031	28	MLB	ARI	29	29	162	684	147	59	19	21.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.31	4.32	+1.8
2032	29	MLB	ARI	29	29	158	669	143	59	19	21.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.37	+1.7
2033	30	MLB	ARI	28	28	154	649	137	57	19	21.2%	8.9%	2.9%	4.39	4.43	+1.5
2034	31	MLB	ARI	27	27	148	626	131	56	19	20.9%	9.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.50	+1.3
2035	32	MLB	ARI	26	26	142	601	124	55	19	20.7%	9.1%	3.1%	4.54	4.59	+1.1
2036	33	MLB	ARI	25	25	136	574	117	53	18	20.3%	9.3%	3.2%	4.63	4.69	+0.9
2037	34	MLB	ARI	23	23	129	546	109	52	18	20.0%	9.5%	3.3%	4.73	4.80	+0.7
2038	35	MLB	ARI	22	22	122	514	101	50	17	19.6%	9.7%	3.4%	4.84	4.92	+0.5
2039	36	MLB	ARI	21	21	114	481	92	48	17	19.2%	10.0%	3.5%	4.97	5.05	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			63	61	314	1335	213	125	30	15.9%	9.4%	2.3%	3.72	4.20	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—			40	39	200	849	136	80	19	15.9%	9.4%	2.3%	3.72	4.20	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Elbis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	19.8%	9.6%	2.8%	—	4.33	21.2%	12.4%	451	-0.22	—	—	—
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	96
Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	93
R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	93
Will Warren R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	18.4%	8.6%	2.2%	.299	4.10	24.1%	14.5%	424	+0.27	3.31	571	93
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	1.9%	.280	3.89	20.4%	11.7%	142	+0.34	3.55	252	93
Colton Eastman R 2025 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	19.4%	7.9%	3.4%	.304	4.97	17.0%	2.8%	155	+0.64	4.19	349	92
Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP-	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	3.89	14.2%	7.6%	150	-0.19	3.89	262	92
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	92
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	92
Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	19.3%	10.7%	2.5%	.315	4.02	18.1%	9.4%	296	-0.15	3.77	420	91
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.76	18.2%	12.0%	120	+0.10	3.66	229	91
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	91
Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	90
Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP-	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.11	19.9%	13.7%	154	+0.20	3.91	262	90
Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.52	19.2%	11.6%	445	+0.40	4.07	663	90
Alex FaGalde R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP-	3.79	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	4.98	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.19	3.79	279	89
Tommy Wilson R 2026 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP-	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	89
Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	89
Chris Devenski R 2027 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	16.8%	7.2%	2.7%	.298	2.89	27.7%	21.7%	236	-1.19	2.10	608	89
Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.06	15.9%	4.9%	91	+0.11	3.95	193	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.8	$16M	+$15M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.8	$16M	+$15M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.8	$17M	+$16M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.7	$16M	+$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.5	$15M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.3	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$20M		$93M	+$73M