Joe Elbis
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 150 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.2 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 103 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 109
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
K%15.8%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%6.9%
ROS IP104
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 54 | 218 | 59 | 7 | 4 | 83% | 4.5 | 18.8% | 3.9% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 3.52 | 3.46 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 54 | 218 | 59 | 7 | 4 | 83% | 4.5 | 27.1% | 3.2% | 23.9% | 1.8% | 3.52 | 2.26 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 3 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 2.55 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 3 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 28.0% | 8.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 1.50 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 115 | 504 | 97 | 51 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 14.6% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 4.85 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 115 | 504 | 97 | 51 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 3.87 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 135 | 563 | 112 | 47 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.6% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 3.39 | 4.11 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 135 | 563 | 112 | 47 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 3.39 | 3.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 155 | 656 | 104 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.81 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 28 | 159 | 672 | 120 | 55 | 19 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.55 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 28 | 161 | 681 | 129 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.40 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 161 | 681 | 134 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.34 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 159 | 670 | 132 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 128 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 147 | 621 | 120 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 111 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.77 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 101 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.97 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 86 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.43 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 106 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 113 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.41 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 113 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 110 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 102 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.81 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 94 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 161 | 957 | 4041 | 776 | 330 | 125 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.21 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 69 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 63 | 61 | 314 | 1335 | 213 | 125 | 31 | 97% | 5.0 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 3.72 | 4.23 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 39 | 200 | 849 | 135 | 80 | 20 | 97% | 5.0 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 3.72 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Elbis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 15.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.43 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 482 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.99 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .297 | 4.91 | 17.2% | 3.9% | 150 | +0.92 | 3.99 | 297 | 90 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.18 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .350 | 4.12 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 180 | -0.06 | 3.26 | 386 | 89 |
| Brandon Barker R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.53 | 14.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .283 | 4.36 | 16.0% | 6.0% | 128 | -0.17 | 3.66 | 463 | 89 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.61 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.58 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 214 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 1,151 | 88 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.59 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 364 | -0.12 | 4.33 | 485 | 88 |
| Brady Feigl R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.81 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 122 | +1.96 | 3.81 | 257 | 87 |
| Blayne Weller R 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 16.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .326 | 5.67 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 103 | +1.52 | 4.15 | 254 | 87 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .299 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 14.5% | 424 | +0.26 | 3.80 | 651 | 87 |
| Rainy Lara R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .305 | 4.82 | 11.4% | 2.4% | 108 | +0.60 | 4.22 | 242 | 86 |
| Barrett Astin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 15.0% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .304 | 3.84 | 18.4% | 10.9% | 152 | -0.11 | 3.84 | 303 | 86 |
| Nick Martinez R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 13.6% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .288 | 4.84 | 13.3% | 7.5% | 287 | +0.62 | 2.97 | 1,073 | 86 |
| Kyle Luckham R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .286 | 4.39 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 357 | -0.19 | 4.01 | 482 | 86 |
| James Needy R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.93 | 14.2% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .326 | 2.82 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 36 | -2.11 | 2.82 | 167 | 86 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.59 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.79 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.20 | 4.21 | 347 | 86 |
| Bret Helton R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.73 | 12.7% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .276 | 4.91 | 13.7% | 2.8% | 177 | +0.18 | 4.05 | 312 | 86 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.57 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .306 | 4.28 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.29 | 3.46 | 321 | 85 |
| Benton Moss R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.78 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .297 | 4.76 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 172 | +0.98 | 3.78 | 310 | 85 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .323 | 5.46 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.22 | 4.24 | 193 | 85 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .315 | 3.90 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.34 | 3.74 | 459 | 85 |
| Jose Reyes R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.03 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.81 | 4.22 | 225 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 152 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 1.15 | 4.57 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Dallas Keuchel ('23) | 9 | 132 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |