Max Rajcic — OGILVIE

Max Rajcic P Memphis Redbirds

+0.3 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2029

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%17.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%7.8%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2029

K†4045

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	A+	Peoria Chiefs	23	23	123	489	123	27	6	19.0%	6.4%	1.5%	2.48	3.14	+3.0
2024	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	25	24	131	568	131	44	18	18.7%	8.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.10	+1.8
2025	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	27	27	118	543	100	54	15	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	4.96	5.02	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	6	1	13	57	15	4	1	23.2%	7.4%	1.9%	3.46	3.14	+0.3
ROS	24	MLB	STL	22	22	120	507	90	50	16	17.8%	9.9%	3.2%	5.01	5.01	+0.4
2026 Total	24	MLB	STL	—	—	133	564	105	54	17	18.6%	9.6%	3.1%	4.86	4.83	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	STL	24	24	134	564	107	53	18	19.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.86	4.81	+0.7
2028	26	MLB	STL	26	26	140	593	117	55	19	19.8%	9.2%	3.2%	4.76	4.72	+0.9
2029	27	MLB	STL	26	26	143	605	121	55	19	19.9%	9.2%	3.2%	4.71	4.70	+1.0
2030	28	MLB	STL	26	26	143	605	121	55	19	19.9%	9.2%	3.2%	4.71	4.72	+0.9
2031	29	MLB	STL	25	25	140	591	117	55	19	19.8%	9.2%	3.3%	4.74	4.76	+0.9
2032	30	MLB	STL	25	25	136	573	112	54	19	19.6%	9.3%	3.3%	4.79	4.83	+0.7
2033	31	MLB	STL	24	24	131	553	107	52	19	19.4%	9.5%	3.4%	4.86	4.90	+0.6
2034	32	MLB	STL	23	23	126	531	101	51	18	19.1%	9.6%	3.5%	4.94	4.99	+0.4
2035	33	MLB	STL	22	22	120	507	95	50	18	18.8%	9.8%	3.6%	5.03	5.08	+0.3
2036	34	MLB	STL	21	21	114	482	89	48	18	18.4%	10.0%	3.7%	5.13	5.19	+0.1
2037	35	MLB	STL	20	20	108	454	82	46	17	18.1%	10.2%	3.8%	5.24	5.31	-0.0
2038	36	MLB	STL	18	18	100	424	75	44	16	17.6%	10.5%	3.9%	5.37	5.45	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			81	75	385	1657	295	142	42	17.8%	8.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.08	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—			42	39	200	860	153	74	22	17.8%	8.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.08	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Rajcic (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	17.8%	9.9%	3.2%	—	4.74	19.6%	10.4%	417	-0.27	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	24	SP-	4.52	18.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.271	5.93	20.6%	7.6%	119	+1.41	4.52	358	93
Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	16.2%	10.3%	3.0%	.290	4.81	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.10	4.71	160	92
Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP-	4.80	15.0%	8.6%	3.4%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.80	106	91
Jackson Wentworth R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP-	4.95	16.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.95	124	90
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	90
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP-	5.13	18.8%	10.2%	4.2%	.327	3.98	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.15	2.65	315	90
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	24	SP-	4.18	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	3.95	17.0%	8.9%	127	-0.23	3.95	373	89
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	89
Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	89
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	24	SP-	5.28	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.42	22.2%	10.9%	274	-0.86	3.98	481	89
Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	3.96	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.48	3.22	907	89
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	88
Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.65	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.35	269	88
Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	13.9%	8.2%	3.3%	.292	2.10	19.9%	14.5%	15	-2.67	2.10	252	88
Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	88
Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP-	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	88
Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.6%	10.0%	2.0%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.30	4.09	171	88
Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.17	347	88
Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	16.3%	8.9%	2.8%	.277	3.52	21.8%	12.7%	44	-0.88	3.52	128	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1.0M
Totals		$8M		$27M	+$19M