Max Rajcic

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 240 lbs AAA ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AASTL	25	24	131	4.33	3.89	23.1%	7.7%	—	K 18.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.11
2025	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	118	4.96	4.43	18.4%	9.9%	—	K 15.2% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.91
2026	24	MIX2 levels	32	1	50	3.26	3.70	26.9%	10.0%	0.5	K 24.4% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.89
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	4	4	24	4.91	4.91	18.3%	9.5%	0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBSTL	11	11	66	4.83	4.82	18.9%	9.2%	0.4
2029PROJ86% MLB	27	MLBSTL	10	10	62	4.80	4.81	19.1%	9.2%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJeff Niemann (age 25) · Carlos Torres (age 26) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%18.3%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	489	123	27	6	100%	5.4	19.0%	6.4%	12.5%	1.5%	2.48	3.15	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	123	489	123	27	6	100%	5.4	25.2%	5.5%	19.6%	1.2%	2.48	2.39	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	24	131	568	131	44	18	96%	5.2	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.7%	4.33	4.11	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	24	131	568	131	44	18	96%	5.2	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.7%	4.33	4.11	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	24	131	568	131	44	18	96%	5.2	23.1%	7.7%	15.3%	3.2%	4.33	3.89	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	543	100	54	15	100%	4.4	15.2%	9.9%	5.2%	3.3%	4.96	4.91	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	543	100	54	15	100%	4.4	15.2%	9.9%	5.2%	3.3%	4.96	4.91	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	118	543	100	54	15	100%	4.4	18.4%	9.9%	8.5%	2.8%	4.96	4.43	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	50	201	54	20	6	3%	1.6	24.4%	7.8%	16.6%	3.4%	3.26	3.89	+0.4
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	50	201	54	20	6	3%	1.6	24.4%	7.8%	16.6%	3.4%	3.26	3.89	+0.4
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	50	201	54	20	6	3%	1.6	26.9%	10.0%	16.9%	3.0%	3.26	3.70	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	9	39	8	6	1	0%	1.5	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.6%	5.00	4.77	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	4	4	24	101	19	10	3	100%	6.0	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	3.2%	4.91	4.91	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	348	66	32	11	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.2%	9.6%	3.2%	4.83	4.82	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	72	306	58	28	10	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.80	4.81	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	67	281	54	26	9	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.3%	9.8%	3.3%	4.83	4.87	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	61	259	49	24	9	100%	6.1	18.9%	9.5%	9.5%	3.5%	4.92	4.98	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	55	233	43	23	9	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	3.7%	5.06	5.16	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	66	279	53	26	9	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.2%	9.6%	3.2%	4.83	4.82	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	62	262	50	24	8	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.80	4.81	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	48	23	8	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.3%	9.8%	3.3%	4.83	4.87	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	56	236	45	22	8	100%	6.2	18.9%	9.5%	9.5%	3.5%	4.92	4.98	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	51	215	40	21	8	100%	6.4	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	3.7%	5.06	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	49	304	1284	244	123	43	89%	5.5	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	3.3%	4.88	4.54	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	32	200	845	161	81	28	89%	5.6	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	3.3%	4.88	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		107	75	422	1801	330	149	48	70%	3.9	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	2.7%	3.84	4.06	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	36	200	854	157	71	23	70%	3.9	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	2.7%	3.84	4.06	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 41 IPFIP 3.49 → 3.89 (+0.40)K% 28.4% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.40%	—	×0.860	24.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×0.900	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 73 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.66 (+0.54)K% 22.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.36%	—	×0.810	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.39%	—	×1.100	9.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.105	×1.200	1.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 45 IPFIP 6.06 → 6.72 (+0.66)K% 12.7% → 10.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.67%	—	×0.860	10.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.22%	—	×0.900	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷0.869	×1.100	5.73%

Result: FIP 6.06 → 6.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 131 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.11 (+0.24)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.06%	—	×0.810	18.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.75%	—	×1.100	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.386	×1.200	2.74%

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 61 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.22 (+0.62)K% 21.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.91%	—	×0.770	16.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.17%	—	×1.150	8.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷1.093	×1.250	0.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 62 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.07 (+0.98)K% 28.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.740	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.78%	—	×1.180	4.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.010	×1.300	2.16%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Rajcic (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	18.3%	9.5%	3.2%	—	4.83	19.0%	9.8%	222	-0.08	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	86
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	86
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	85
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	80
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	78
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	78
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	78
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	78
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	77
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	77
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	77
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	76
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	76
John Patterson R 2003 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP-	4.44	17.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.305	3.64	22.7%	15.5%	337	-0.80	2.90	454	75
Burke Badenhop R 2008 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	16.1%	9.2%	3.2%	.308	3.13	18.0%	11.5%	203	-1.54	2.67	512	75
Sergio Mitre R 2006 · 4.89 FIP	25	SW	4.89	16.4%	9.0%	3.7%	.276	3.91	12.4%	6.8%	201	-0.98	3.55	602	74
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	74
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	74
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	65	18.9%	9.5%	1.29	4.88
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*