Bryce Mayer — OGILVIE

Bryce Mayer P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.06

FIP4.06

K%23.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%15.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5055

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.97	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.97	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.84	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.3%	4.11	3.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.3%	4.11	3.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	30.2%	7.3%	22.9%	2.2%	4.11	2.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	23	20	98	403	132	47	15	87%	4.3	26.7%	12.2%	14.5%	4.3%	3.21	4.73	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	23	20	98	403	132	47	15	87%	4.3	26.7%	12.2%	14.5%	4.3%	3.21	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	HOU	17	14	69	279	100	34	7	82%	4.1	35.8%	12.2%	23.7%	2.5%	2.61	2.99	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	HOU	6	6	29	124	32	13	8	100%	4.8	25.8%	10.5%	15.3%	6.5%	4.66	5.79	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	6	24	6	2	1	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.1%	15.6%	2.8%	4.06	4.06	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	104	427	138	49	16	—	—	32.2%	11.5%	20.8%	3.7%	3.26	4.70	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	97	410	98	32	12	100%	5.7	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	2.8%	4.05	4.03	+1.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	97	410	98	32	12	100%	6.1	23.9%	7.8%	16.1%	2.9%	4.04	4.02	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	96	404	96	32	12	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	2.9%	4.06	4.07	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	93	392	93	32	12	100%	6.2	23.6%	8.1%	15.6%	3.0%	4.12	4.16	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	374	87	31	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	3.2%	4.22	4.29	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	83	352	81	30	12	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.6%	14.5%	3.4%	4.37	4.47	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	78	328	81	27	12	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	3.6%	4.39	4.40	+0.5
2034	32	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	72	304	73	26	12	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.5%	15.6%	3.8%	4.53	4.62	+0.2
2035	33	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	66	279	66	25	11	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.0%	14.7%	4.1%	4.74	4.87	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	43	182	43	14	5	100%	6.1	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	2.8%	4.01	3.99	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	65	274	66	22	8	100%	5.9	23.9%	7.8%	16.1%	2.8%	4.00	3.98	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	74	312	74	25	9	100%	6.2	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	2.8%	4.02	4.03	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	78	329	78	27	10	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.1%	15.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.11	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	78	329	77	27	10	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	3.1%	4.17	4.24	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	75	317	73	27	10	100%	6.2	23.0%	8.6%	14.5%	3.3%	4.32	4.42	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	71	300	74	24	10	100%	5.9	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	3.5%	4.34	4.35	+0.4
2034	32	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	67	283	68	24	11	100%	6.1	24.2%	8.5%	15.6%	3.7%	4.47	4.56	+0.2
2035	33	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	62	262	62	24	10	100%	6.2	23.7%	9.0%	14.7%	4.0%	4.68	4.81	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	612	2585	614	213	83	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.2%	15.5%	3.2%	4.23	3.90	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	201	70	27	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.2%	15.5%	3.2%	4.23	3.90	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		47	38	192	804	204	84	26	81%	4.1	25.4%	10.4%	15.0%	3.2%	3.61	4.03	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	838	213	87	27	81%	4.1	25.4%	10.4%	15.0%	3.2%	3.61	4.03	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Mayer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.06	23.6%	8.1%	2.8%	—	4.04	23.8%	16.0%	290	-0.02	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	91
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	87
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	86
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	82
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	81
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	81
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	81
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	81
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	80
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	80
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	80
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	79
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	78
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	84	23.8%	8.2%	1.24	4.24
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88