Bryce Mayer — OGILVIE

Bryce Mayer P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 93

ERA4.06

FIP4.06

K%23.4%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%15.3%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5055

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.97	—
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.84	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.1%	4.11	3.30	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	30.2%	7.3%	22.9%	2.2%	4.11	2.66	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	14	11	52	220	74	30	7	79%	3.7	27.2%	15.0%	12.2%	3.8%	3.46	4.80	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	12	12	65	274	64	22	8	100%	5.4	23.4%	8.1%	15.3%	2.8%	4.06	4.06	+0.4
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	23.4%	8.1%	15.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	HOU	—	—	117	494	138	52	15	—	—	28.0%	10.6%	17.4%	3.0%	3.79	4.39	+1.4
2026 FULL	24	MLB	HOU	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	23.4%	8.1%	15.3%	2.9%	4.11	3.72	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	HOU	12	12	68	287	68	23	8	100%	5.7	23.8%	8.0%	15.8%	2.8%	4.04	4.02	+0.6
2028	26	MLB	HOU	11	11	68	287	69	23	8	100%	6.2	23.9%	8.1%	15.9%	2.8%	4.03	4.02	+0.6
2029	27	MLB	HOU	11	11	67	283	68	23	8	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	2.9%	4.06	4.07	+0.5
2030	28	MLB	HOU	11	11	65	274	65	23	8	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	3.0%	4.12	4.16	+0.4
2031	29	MLB	HOU	10	10	62	262	62	22	8	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.1%	4.22	4.29	+0.2
2032	30	MLB	HOU	10	10	58	247	57	22	8	100%	5.8	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	3.3%	4.37	4.47	+0.1
2033	31	MLB	HOU	9	9	54	230	52	21	8	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.2%	13.5%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	-0.1
2034	32	MLB	HOU	8	8	50	213	47	20	8	100%	6.3	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	3.8%	4.76	4.90	-0.2
2027	25	MLB	HOU	5	5	30	127	30	10	4	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.0%	15.8%	2.9%	4.09	4.07	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	HOU	8	8	45	190	45	15	5	100%	5.6	23.9%	8.1%	15.9%	2.9%	4.08	4.07	+0.3
2029	27	MLB	HOU	9	9	52	220	52	18	6	100%	5.8	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	2.9%	4.11	4.12	+0.3
2030	28	MLB	HOU	9	9	55	232	55	19	7	100%	6.1	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	3.1%	4.17	4.21	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	HOU	9	9	54	228	54	20	7	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.2%	4.27	4.34	+0.1
2032	30	MLB	HOU	9	9	53	224	52	20	8	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	3.4%	4.42	4.52	+0.0
2033	31	MLB	HOU	8	8	50	211	48	19	8	100%	6.2	22.8%	9.2%	13.5%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	-0.1
2034	32	MLB	HOU	8	8	47	198	44	19	8	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	3.9%	4.82	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			65	65	387	1634	382	141	53	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.6%	14.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.01	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	197	73	27	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.6%	14.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.01	+3.3
Career	—			38	29	146	621	157	68	16	76%	3.8	25.2%	10.9%	14.4%	2.6%	3.82	3.77	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—			52	40	200	851	215	93	22	76%	3.8	25.2%	10.9%	14.4%	2.6%	3.82	3.77	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Mayer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.06	23.4%	8.1%	2.8%	—	4.04	23.9%	15.8%	203	-0.02	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	88
Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	88
Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	3.2%	.256	5.06	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.37	3.69	333	86
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	23.0%	8.8%	3.5%	.359	4.87	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.67	4.20	118	83
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	20.2%	8.6%	3.9%	.261	4.28	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.36	3.41	368	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	82
James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP-	3.53	19.7%	7.9%	2.0%	.310	4.16	22.1%	13.7%	194	+0.63	3.53	352	81
Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	19.2%	5.7%	2.9%	.311	6.73	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.92	3.81	106	81
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	24	SP-	4.53	19.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.278	5.41	19.6%	8.0%	66	+0.88	3.96	260	80
Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.312	4.78	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.43	4.25	412	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	79
Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP-	4.06	16.5%	6.3%	2.8%	.285	5.72	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.66	4.06	178	79
Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP-	4.24	21.6%	6.2%	4.0%	.340	4.51	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.27	4.24	146	79
Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	23.3%	9.3%	3.6%	.260	4.34	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.06	3.68	323	79
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	20.3%	8.7%	2.4%	.309	3.63	21.4%	13.2%	123	-0.14	1.87	232	78
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	24	SP	3.59	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.20	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.39	2.15	702	78
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	78
Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	21.1%	7.1%	2.9%	.244	3.56	23.9%	18.1%	56	-0.23	3.56	167	78
Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	22.3%	5.7%	3.0%	.262	3.13	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.44	3.13	137	78
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	17.0%	6.5%	3.4%	.293	4.16	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.22	3.50	472	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	62	23.4%	8.5%	1.19	4.22
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58