Bryce Mayer

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP40OGV rank#404ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AHOU	3	2	6	2.84	1.84	33.3%	13.3%	—	K 33.3% · BB 13.3% · FIP 1.97
2025	23	MIX3 levels	21	16	88	4.11	2.66	30.2%	7.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.44
2026	24	MIX2 levels	24	21	102	3.53	3.89	33.1%	12.1%	—	K 27.3% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	1	1	2	4.54	4.54	26.4%	10.6%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBHOU	8	8	48	4.45	4.44	26.2%	10.2%	0.5
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	11	11	64	4.45	4.46	25.8%	10.1%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 6.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 72%

CompsIsaac Coffey (age 24) · Riley Gowens (age 24) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%26.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.97	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.97	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.84	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.3%	4.11	3.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.3%	4.11	3.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	30.2%	7.3%	22.9%	2.2%	4.11	2.66	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	102	423	140	51	16	88%	4.2	27.3%	12.5%	14.8%	4.3%	3.53	4.75	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	102	423	140	51	16	88%	4.2	27.3%	12.5%	14.8%	4.3%	3.53	4.75	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	102	423	140	51	16	88%	4.2	33.1%	12.1%	21.0%	3.8%	3.53	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	26.4%	10.6%	15.8%	3.6%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	109	459	120	47	16	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.2%	15.9%	3.5%	4.50	4.49	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	101	428	111	43	15	100%	6.0	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.5%	4.50	4.51	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	96	403	103	41	14	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.2%	15.4%	3.6%	4.54	4.58	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	375	95	39	14	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	3.7%	4.63	4.70	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	81	342	85	36	13	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	3.9%	4.78	4.88	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	72	304	74	33	13	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.0%	13.5%	4.1%	4.96	5.08	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	48	203	53	21	7	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.2%	15.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.44	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	64	270	70	27	9	100%	5.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.4%	4.45	4.46	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	72	304	78	31	11	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.2%	15.4%	3.5%	4.49	4.53	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	73	308	78	32	11	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	3.6%	4.57	4.64	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	69	291	72	31	11	100%	5.8	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	3.8%	4.72	4.82	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	64	270	66	30	11	100%	5.8	24.4%	11.0%	13.5%	4.0%	4.90	5.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	390	1647	417	171	60	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.4%	14.9%	3.6%	4.60	4.28	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	214	88	31	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.4%	14.9%	3.6%	4.60	4.28	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		48	39	196	824	212	87	27	81%	4.1	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	3.3%	3.77	4.06	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	841	217	89	27	81%	4.1	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	3.3%	3.77	4.06	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 69 IPFIP 2.99 → 4.00 (+1.00)K% 35.8% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.84%	—	×0.810	29.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.19%	—	×1.100	13.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.01%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.99 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 33 IPFIP 5.68 → 6.20 (+0.52)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.860	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.81%	—	×0.900	10.62%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.68 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 41 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.41 (+0.60)K% 28.1% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.770	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.62%	—	×1.150	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.297	×1.250	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 159).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 29 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.85 (+0.72)K% 27.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.61%	—	×0.810	22.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.96%	—	×1.100	9.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷1.057	×1.200	2.54%

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 18 IPFIP 1.51 → 2.75 (+1.24)K% 39.0% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.96%	—	×0.740	28.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.79%	—	×1.180	9.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.005	×1.300	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.51 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 6 IPFIP 1.97 → 3.01 (+1.04)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.180	15.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.118	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.97 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Mayer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.52	25.9%	15.7%	306	-0.02	—	—	—
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	81
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	78
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	78
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	77
Ty Madden R 2024 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP-	5.04	22.7%	8.8%	5.0%	.355	4.39	19.3%	9.7%	98	-0.65	4.39	458	77
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	77
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	77
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	77
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	77
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	77
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	76
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	76
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	76
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	76
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	75
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	75
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	75
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	96	25.6%	10.4%	1.42	4.61
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Buzz Capra ('71-'77, 4 WAR*)	2.7	109	22.1%*	10.5%*	1.51*	4.21*
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30