Liam Hicks
C Tampa Bay Rays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AADET | 494 | .264/.385/.357 | 6 | 3 | 84 | — | .242/.331/.317 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBMIA | 390 | .247/.349/.346 | 6 | 2 | 106 | 2.0 | |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBTB | 554 | .284/.372/.434 | 18 | 3 | 125 | 4.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBTB | 445 | .259/.346/.397 | 12 | 3 | 112 | 2.3 | |
| 2028PROJ | 29 | MLBTB | 445 | .256/.343/.390 | 12 | 2 | 109 | 2.0 | |
| 2029PROJ | 30 | MLBTB | 445 | .253/.339/.381 | 11 | 0 | 106 | 1.7 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 32 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 344 | 125 | 469 | 150 | 12 | 22 | 260 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 22 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 381 | 188 | 568 | 250 | 23 | 14 | 285 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 120 | 88 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 273 | 448 | 409 | 857 | 136 | 278 | 9 | 22 | 383 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 57 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 478 | 571 | 652 | 1.224 | 174 | 525 | 11 | 12 | 527 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 316 | 253 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 49 | 52 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 269 | 411 | 368 | 778 | 99 | 325 | 16 | 16 | 361 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 56 | 45 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 311 | 446 | 400 | 846 | 89 | 394 | 20 | 18 | 392 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 85 | 69 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 449 | 553 | 522 | 1.075 | 72 | 508 | 9 | 19 | 484 | 213 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 494 | 406 | 107 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 64 | 58 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 264 | 385 | 357 | 742 | 94 | 289 | 12 | 13 | 340 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 390 | 332 | 82 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 349 | 346 | 695 | 99 | 278 | 14 | 11 | 317 | 106 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +8 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 554 | 479 | 136 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 56 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 284 | 372 | 434 | 806 | 150 | 286 | 10 | 10 | 358 | 125 | +17 | +1 | +1 | +10 | +12 | 4.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 944 | 811 | 218 | 29 | 2 | 24 | 99 | 111 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 269 | 362 | 398 | 761 | 129 | 283 | 12 | 10 | 341 | 117 | +19 | +1 | +2 | +17 | +20 | 6.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 32 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 250 | 111 | 361 | 121 | 19 | 12 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 22 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 333 | 176 | 510 | 211 | 32 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 120 | 97 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 237 | 362 | 351 | 713 | 113 | 243 | 12 | 14 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 57 | 49 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 367 | 446 | 510 | 957 | 143 | 397 | 16 | 7 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 316 | 267 | 63 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 63 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 236 | 350 | 330 | 680 | 94 | 289 | 20 | 11 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 56 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 245 | 339 | 327 | 666 | 82 | 324 | 27 | 11 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 494 | 429 | 104 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 242 | 331 | 317 | 648 | 75 | 266 | 14 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 390 | 332 | 84 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 253 | 354 | 355 | 710 | 102 | 278 | 14 | 11 | 325 | 106 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +8 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 554 | 482 | 135 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 53 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 280 | 364 | 436 | 800 | 156 | 286 | 10 | 10 | 353 | 125 | +17 | +1 | +1 | +10 | +12 | 4.1 |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 32 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 250 | 111 | 361 | 143 | 19 | 12 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 32 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 344 | 125 | 469 | 150 | 12 | 22 | 260 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 199 | 163 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 30 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 270 | 383 | 380 | 764 | 110 | 301 | 15 | 12 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 199 | 150 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 327 | 477 | 460 | 937 | 133 | 351 | 11 | 18 | 413 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 457 | 392 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 95 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 232 | 338 | 314 | 652 | 82 | 295 | 21 | 11 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 457 | 367 | 113 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 75 | 71 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 308 | 442 | 401 | 842 | 93 | 371 | 16 | 16 | 388 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 494 | 429 | 104 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 242 | 331 | 317 | 648 | 75 | 273 | 14 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 494 | 406 | 107 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 64 | 58 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 264 | 385 | 357 | 742 | 94 | 289 | 12 | 13 | 340 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 390 | 332 | 84 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 253 | 354 | 355 | 710 | 102 | 286 | 14 | 11 | 325 | 106 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +8 | 2.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | Miami Marlins | — | 390 | 332 | 82 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 349 | 346 | 695 | 99 | 278 | 14 | 11 | 317 | 106 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +8 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 554 | 482 | 135 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 53 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 280 | 364 | 436 | 800 | 156 | 280 | 10 | 10 | 353 | 125 | +17 | +1 | +1 | +10 | +12 | 4.1 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 554 | 479 | 136 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 56 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 284 | 372 | 434 | 806 | 150 | 286 | 10 | 10 | 358 | 125 | +17 | +1 | +1 | +10 | +12 | 4.1 |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 32 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 250 | 111 | 361 | 121 | 19 | 12 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 199 | 167 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 30 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 263 | 383 | 371 | 755 | 108 | 284 | 15 | 12 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 457 | 391 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 95 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 233 | 338 | 315 | 653 | 82 | 294 | 21 | 11 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 494 | 434 | 104 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 331 | 313 | 645 | 74 | 266 | 14 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 390 | 335 | 84 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 251 | 354 | 352 | 706 | 101 | 278 | 14 | 11 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 554 | 485 | 135 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 53 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 278 | 364 | 433 | 797 | 155 | 286 | 10 | 10 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 494 | 434 | 104 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 331 | 313 | 645 | 74 | 266 | 14 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 390 | 335 | 84 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 251 | 354 | 352 | 706 | 101 | 278 | 14 | 11 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 554 | 485 | 135 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 53 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 278 | 364 | 433 | 797 | 155 | 286 | 10 | 10 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 496 | 436 | 112 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 257 | 344 | 398 | 742 | 141 | 267 | 12 | 10 | 333 | 112 | +7 | +0 | -2 | +9 | +11 | 2.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 445 | 391 | 101 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 259 | 346 | 397 | 743 | 138 | 270 | 12 | 10 | 334 | 112 | +6 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 2.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 445 | 391 | 99 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 341 | 391 | 732 | 137 | 266 | 12 | 10 | 329 | 109 | +5 | +0 | -3 | +8 | +10 | 2.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 445 | 391 | 98 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 251 | 337 | 382 | 720 | 131 | 264 | 13 | 10 | 324 | 106 | +3 | -0 | -4 | +8 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 416 | 366 | 90 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 332 | 371 | 703 | 125 | 260 | 13 | 10 | 318 | 101 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 374 | 330 | 80 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 325 | 356 | 680 | 116 | 256 | 13 | 9 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -5 | +7 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 321 | 283 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 316 | 338 | 653 | 106 | 250 | 14 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -5 | +6 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB MLE | TB | 96% | 255 | 226 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 305 | 317 | 622 | 95 | 243 | 15 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -6 | +0 | -6 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 445 | 391 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 256 | 343 | 390 | 733 | 134 | 269 | 12 | 10 | 330 | 109 | +5 | +0 | -3 | +8 | +10 | 2.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 445 | 391 | 98 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 43 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 253 | 339 | 381 | 721 | 128 | 267 | 13 | 10 | 325 | 106 | +3 | -0 | -4 | +8 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 416 | 366 | 91 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 334 | 370 | 704 | 122 | 264 | 13 | 10 | 318 | 101 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 374 | 330 | 81 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 327 | 355 | 682 | 114 | 259 | 13 | 9 | 310 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -5 | +7 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 321 | 283 | 66 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 318 | 337 | 655 | 104 | 253 | 14 | 9 | 299 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -5 | +6 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB CTX | TB | 96% | 244 | 216 | 49 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 307 | 317 | 624 | 93 | 246 | 15 | 9 | 286 | 79 | -6 | +0 | -6 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3189 | 2788 | 703 | 95 | 6 | 78 | 312 | 406 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 252 | 340 | 374 | 714 | 122 | 269 | 13 | 10 | 322 | 101 | +14 | +1 | -25 | +57 | +69 | 11.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 568 | 143 | 19 | 1 | 16 | 64 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 252 | 340 | 373 | 713 | 121 | 268 | 13 | 10 | 322 | 101 | +3 | +0 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 2.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4827 | 4203 | 1044 | 155 | 9 | 105 | 471 | 661 | 103 | 27 | 5 | 248 | 339 | 365 | 703 | 116 | 270 | 14 | 10 | 317 | 101 | +20 | +1 | -27 | +65 | +79 | 14.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 566 | 140 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 63 | 89 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 247 | 337 | 362 | 699 | 115 | 269 | 14 | 10 | 317 | 101 | +4 | +0 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 494 PAwOBA .337 → .292 (−45)K% 11.7% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.74% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.96% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.24% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.28% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 22.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 4.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.43% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .337 → .292; ISO .094 → .081; BABIP .289 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 316 PAwOBA .355 → .303 (−52)K% 16.5% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.46% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.51% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 11.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.80% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 3.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.88% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.97% | ÷0.875 | ×0.840 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷1.074 | ×0.940 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.24% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .355 → .303; ISO .099 → .091; BABIP .325 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 56 PAwOBA .383 → .293 (−90)K% 19.6% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.64% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 10.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.29% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 29.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .383 → .293; ISO .089 → .080; BABIP .394 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 120 PAwOBA .387 → .326 (−61)K% 9.2% → 12.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.17% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 12.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.67% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 14.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.78% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 18.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.79% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 6.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷0.912 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.26% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .387 → .326; ISO .136 → .128; BABIP .278 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Rangers · 57 PAwOBA .523 → .392 (−130)K% 10.5% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.990 | ×1.440 | — | — | 15.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.28% | ÷0.996 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 7.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.26% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 3.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.50% | ÷1.012 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 33.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.039 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.045 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 1.85% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .523 → .392; ISO .174 → .127; BABIP .525 → .397. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 22 PAwOBA .293 → .229 (−64)K% 22.7% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.007 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.985 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.09% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 6.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.039 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 22.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.123 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .293 → .229; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Rangers · 32 PAwOBA .256 → .172 (−84)K% 12.5% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.88% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 12.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 12.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.064 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 113, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .256 → .172; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .150 → .121. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .