Jake Cronenworth

2B San Diego Padres

Age 33 L/R 5'11" / 187 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBSD	656	.241/.324/.390	17	5	105	0.3
2025	31	MLBSD	515	.246/.371/.377	11	3	116	2.3
2026	32	MLBSD	425	.225/.308/.321	7	9	83	0.4
2027PROJ	33	MLBSD	368	.229/.323/.343	7	6	94	0.7
2028PROJ	34	MLBSD	310	.219/.313/.323	6	2	86	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service7.000First FA2028NTC

2027Ext$11M2028Ext$11M2029Ext$11M2030Ext$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed66

Bat Spd57

xwOBA56

Avg EV38

Barrel%35

Form.233/.312/.361 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .232/.324/.348

CompsRamón Vázquez (age 33) · Jace Peterson (age 33) · Eric Sogard (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8794vR 96

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .323 / .343

PA368

HR7

SB6

K%21

BB%10

BABIP278

ISO109

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

300.235

POWER

Barrel%

356.2

Avg EV

3888.2

Bat Spd

5772.1

SPEED

Sprint

6628.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%22%·22% over 104 PA (60d) · proj 21%

BB%9%▼▼7% over 104 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.128▲.149 over 94 AB (60d) · proj .116

HR/BB3.5%·4.2% over 71 BBE (60d) · proj 3.0%

BABIP.282·.265 over 68 BIP (60d) · proj .283

SLASH.233/.312/.361·proj .232/.324/.348

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1244 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

335

909

—

wRC+

113

▶▶R

wOBA

289

335

▶R

ISO

078

160

▶▶R

BABIP

274

283

▶R

18.8%

19.7%

◀L

BB%

10.5%

11.7%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$11M	+0.7	$3M	-$9M
2028	Ext	$11M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$23M		$2M	-$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	126	111	19	3	1	1	13	26	2	2	1	171	270	243	513	72	214	21	10	244	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	380	314	101	15	6	3	54	57	7	12	7	322	432	436	868	115	381	15	14	389	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	180	158	45	6	0	1	19	19	1	1	1	285	363	342	705	57	317	11	11	323	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	381	328	88	16	5	2	47	69	3	12	5	268	364	366	730	98	333	18	12	332	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	26	25	6	3	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	240	269	360	629	120	300	19	4	279	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	470	418	106	18	4	4	43	69	3	21	3	254	328	344	672	91	291	15	9	303	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	406	344	115	26	4	10	49	62	10	12	5	334	432	520	952	186	382	15	12	419	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	192	172	49	15	3	4	18	30	1	3	1	285	356	477	833	192	324	16	9	365	138	+9	+0	+5	+1	+4	1.9
2021	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	643	567	151	33	7	21	55	90	10	4	3	266	339	460	799	194	283	14	9	349	121	+16	-0	+1	+2	+14	3.4
2022	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	684	587	140	30	4	17	70	131	16	3	0	239	334	390	724	152	275	19	10	324	106	+5	+1	+2	+2	+15	2.5
2023	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	522	458	105	24	7	10	46	97	11	6	1	229	314	378	692	148	267	19	9	308	96	-2	+1	-4	-9	+11	-0.4
2024	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	656	577	139	29	3	17	61	118	11	5	2	241	324	390	714	149	274	18	9	319	105	+4	+0	-3	-12	+14	0.3
2025	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	515	419	103	20	1	11	69	107	15	3	3	246	371	377	748	131	299	21	13	337	116	+10	-1	+1	+2	+11	2.3
2026	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	425	377	85	13	1	7	38	97	7	9	2	225	308	321	629	95	286	23	9	288	83	-9	+1	+1	+2	+9	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3637	3157	772	164	26	87	357	670	71	33	12	245	334	396	729	151	282	18	10	325	106	+27	+2	+3	-12	+79	10.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	126	115	16	2	1	1	9	38	2	2	1	139	214	200	414	61	196	30	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	380	332	97	14	6	2	36	76	7	12	7	292	373	389	762	96	360	20	9	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	180	165	45	6	0	1	13	23	1	1	1	273	330	327	657	55	306	13	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	381	340	76	15	4	2	36	96	3	12	5	224	303	309	612	85	300	25	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	26	25	5	2	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	200	231	280	511	80	259	23	4	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	470	432	106	17	4	3	29	80	3	21	3	245	297	324	621	79	286	17	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	406	358	105	22	4	8	35	73	10	12	5	293	372	444	816	151	340	18	9	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	192	172	50	16	3	4	18	30	1	3	1	291	361	488	850	198	324	16	9	373	138	+9	+0	+5	+1	+4	1.9
2021	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	643	578	153	35	7	20	49	90	10	4	3	265	333	453	786	189	283	14	8	347	121	+16	-0	+1	+2	+14	3.4
2022	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	684	593	143	32	4	17	67	131	16	3	0	241	334	395	729	153	275	19	10	325	106	+5	+1	+2	+2	+15	2.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	522	461	107	26	7	10	44	97	11	6	1	232	314	384	698	152	267	19	8	310	96	-2	+1	-4	-9	+11	-0.4
2024	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	656	580	142	31	3	17	61	118	11	5	2	245	328	397	725	152	274	18	9	323	105	+4	+0	-3	-12	+14	0.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	515	421	105	21	1	11	68	107	15	3	3	249	373	382	755	133	299	21	13	339	116	+10	-1	+1	+2	+11	2.3
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	425	377	86	14	1	7	38	97	7	9	2	228	310	326	637	98	286	23	9	291	83	-9	+1	+1	+2	+9	0.4
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	446	113	16	7	3	46	114	9	14	8	253	335	341	676	87	331	23	9	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	506	425	120	18	7	4	67	83	9	14	8	282	391	386	777	104	340	16	13	353	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	561	505	120	21	4	3	49	120	4	13	6	238	310	313	623	75	305	21	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	561	486	133	22	5	3	66	88	4	13	6	274	364	358	722	84	327	16	12	329	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	496	458	112	20	4	3	29	86	3	22	3	245	294	325	619	81	291	17	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	496	443	112	21	4	4	44	74	3	22	3	253	324	345	670	93	291	15	9	302	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	406	358	105	22	4	8	35	73	10	12	5	293	372	444	816	151	346	18	9	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	406	344	115	26	4	10	49	62	10	12	5	334	432	520	952	186	382	15	12	419	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	192	172	50	16	3	4	18	30	1	3	1	291	361	488	850	198	331	16	9	373	138	+9	+0	+5	+1	+4	1.9
2020	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	192	172	49	15	3	4	18	30	1	3	1	285	356	477	833	192	324	16	9	365	138	+9	+0	+5	+1	+4	1.9
2021	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	643	578	153	35	7	20	49	90	10	4	3	265	333	453	786	189	282	14	8	347	121	+16	-0	+1	+2	+14	3.4
2021	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	643	567	151	33	7	21	55	90	10	4	3	266	339	460	799	194	283	14	9	349	121	+16	-0	+1	+2	+14	3.4
2022	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	684	593	143	32	4	17	67	131	16	3	0	241	334	395	729	153	278	19	10	325	106	+5	+1	+2	+2	+15	2.5
2022	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	684	587	140	30	4	17	70	131	16	3	0	239	334	390	724	152	275	19	10	324	106	+5	+1	+2	+2	+15	2.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	522	461	107	26	7	10	44	97	11	6	1	232	314	384	698	152	270	19	8	310	96	-2	+1	-4	-9	+11	-0.4
2023	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	522	458	105	24	7	10	46	97	11	6	1	229	314	378	692	148	267	19	9	308	96	-2	+1	-4	-9	+11	-0.4
2024	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	656	580	142	31	3	17	61	118	11	5	2	245	328	397	725	152	279	18	9	323	105	+4	+0	-3	-12	+14	0.3
2024	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	656	577	139	29	3	17	61	118	11	5	2	241	324	390	714	149	274	18	9	319	105	+4	+0	-3	-12	+14	0.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	515	421	105	21	1	11	68	107	15	3	3	249	373	382	755	133	303	21	13	339	116	+10	-1	+1	+2	+11	2.3
2025	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	515	419	103	20	1	11	69	107	15	3	3	246	371	377	748	131	299	21	13	337	116	+10	-1	+1	+2	+11	2.3
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	425	377	86	14	1	7	38	97	7	9	2	228	310	326	637	98	289	23	9	291	83	-9	+1	+1	+2	+9	0.4
2026	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	425	377	85	13	1	7	38	97	7	9	2	225	308	321	629	95	286	23	9	288	83	-9	+1	+1	+2	+9	0.4
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	446	113	16	7	3	46	114	9	14	8	253	335	341	676	87	319	23	9	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	561	503	120	21	4	3	49	120	4	13	6	239	310	314	624	76	302	21	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	496	461	112	20	4	3	29	86	3	22	3	243	294	323	617	80	285	17	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	406	358	105	22	4	8	35	73	10	12	5	293	372	444	816	151	340	18	9	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	192	171	50	16	3	4	18	30	1	3	1	292	361	491	852	199	324	16	9	373	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	643	579	153	35	7	20	49	90	10	4	3	264	333	453	785	188	283	14	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	684	596	143	32	4	17	67	131	16	3	0	240	334	393	727	153	275	19	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	522	462	107	26	7	10	44	97	11	6	1	232	314	383	697	152	267	19	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	656	579	142	31	3	17	61	118	11	5	2	245	328	397	725	152	274	18	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	515	427	105	21	1	11	68	107	15	3	3	246	373	377	750	131	299	21	13	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	425	377	86	14	1	7	38	97	7	9	2	228	310	326	637	98	286	23	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	656	579	142	31	3	17	61	118	11	5	2	245	328	397	725	152	274	18	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	515	427	105	21	1	11	68	107	15	3	3	246	373	377	750	131	299	21	13	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	425	377	86	14	1	7	38	97	7	9	2	228	310	326	637	98	286	23	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SD	100%	457	398	92	16	1	9	47	98	9	8	2	232	326	348	674	116	283	21	10	307	94	-3	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	SD	100%	368	320	73	12	1	7	38	79	7	6	1	229	323	343	667	114	278	21	10	304	94	-3	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SD	100%	310	270	61	10	1	6	31	69	6	2	1	223	316	327	643	105	275	22	10	295	86	-5	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	SD	100%	310	270	60	9	1	6	31	69	6	2	1	219	313	323	636	104	270	22	10	292	86	-5	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3947	3427	832	173	27	93	388	739	77	35	13	243	332	390	723	148	282	19	10	323	99	+22	+2	-2	-11	+86	9.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	136	28	4	15	64	122	13	6	2	241	331	385	716	144	280	19	10	323	99	+4	+0	-0	-2	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	6284	5539	1371	277	47	116	573	1211	110	102	36	248	330	377	707	130	295	19	9	315	99	+19	+3	-3	-10	+93	10.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	142	29	5	12	59	125	11	11	4	248	330	379	708	131	295	19	9	315	99	+3	+0	-0	-1	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 406 PAwOBA .411 → .353 (−59)K% 15.3% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.27%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	17.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.07%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.62%
HBP% /PA	2.46%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.39%
Singles /BIP	26.60%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	24.61%
Doubles /BIP	9.22%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	7.46%
Triples /BIP	1.42%	÷1.025	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	1.32%
Home runs /BIP	3.55%	÷1.128	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.73%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .411 → .353; ISO .186 → .153; BABIP .382 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 470 PAwOBA .299 → .276 (−23)K% 14.7% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.68%	÷1.055	×1.220	—	—	16.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.15%	÷1.031	×0.680	—	×1.012	6.11%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.54%
Singles /BIP	22.92%	÷0.965	×0.920	×1.033	×1.012	22.85%
Doubles /BIP	5.16%	÷1.007	×0.910	×1.033	×1.012	4.87%
Triples /BIP	1.15%	÷1.010	×0.880	×1.033	×1.012	1.04%
Home runs /BIP	1.15%	÷0.984	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.94%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 93, 2B 101, 3B 102, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .299 → .276; ISO .091 → .084; BABIP .291 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 26 PAwOBA .272 → .222 (−49)K% 19.2% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.23%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.85%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×1.048	2.82%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.00%	÷1.052	×0.930	—	×1.048	13.90%
Doubles /BIP	15.00%	÷1.091	×0.830	—	×1.048	11.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.970	×0.840	—	×1.048	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 99, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .272 → .222; ISO .120 → .093; BABIP .300 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 381 PAwOBA .325 → .272 (−53)K% 18.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.11%	÷1.017	×1.420	—	—	25.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.34%	÷0.967	×0.750	—	×0.998	9.55%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	0.73%
Singles /BIP	25.10%	÷1.073	×0.920	×1.036	×0.998	22.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.18%	÷1.007	×0.960	×1.036	×0.998	6.08%
Triples /BIP	1.93%	÷1.024	×0.810	×1.036	×0.998	1.58%
Home runs /BIP	0.77%	÷0.917	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.74%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 115, 2B 102, 3B 105, K 103, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .325 → .272; ISO .098 → .086; BABIP .333 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 180 PAwOBA .317 → .291 (−26)K% 10.6% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.56%	÷0.994	×1.220	—	—	12.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.56%	÷1.018	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.24%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.48%
Singles /BIP	27.34%	÷1.013	×0.920	×1.036	×1.027	26.42%
Doubles /BIP	4.32%	÷0.986	×0.910	×1.036	×1.027	4.24%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.146	×0.880	×1.036	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.72%	÷1.008	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.59%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 129, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .317 → .291; ISO .057 → .054; BABIP .317 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 380 PAwOBA .382 → .336 (−45)K% 15.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷1.018	×1.360	—	—	20.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.95%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	—	9.64%
HBP% /PA	1.84%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.44%
Singles /BIP	29.96%	÷1.007	×0.920	×1.040	—	28.47%
Doubles /BIP	5.84%	÷0.945	×0.830	×1.040	—	5.33%
Triples /BIP	2.33%	÷0.956	×0.910	×1.040	—	2.31%
Home runs /BIP	1.17%	÷1.028	×0.800	—	—	0.91%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 101, 2B 89, 3B 91, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .382 → .336; ISO .115 → .106; BABIP .381 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 126 PAwOBA .238 → .187 (−51)K% 20.6% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.63%	÷0.971	×1.420	—	—	30.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.32%	÷1.040	×0.750	—	×1.012	7.53%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.49%
Singles /BIP	16.47%	÷1.011	×0.920	×1.039	×1.012	15.76%
Doubles /BIP	3.53%	÷1.290	×0.960	×1.039	×1.012	2.76%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.039	×1.012	0.87%
Home runs /BIP	1.18%	÷1.142	×0.880	—	×1.012	0.92%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 158, 3B 130, K 94, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .238 → .187; ISO .072 → .050; BABIP .214 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#2Tony Bernazard'79-'91 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,243 PA	6.4	4,243	75	113	258*	339*	404*	+15	+5	17.1	17.2
/162	664	12	18	+2.4	+0.7	2.7	pk7: 17
#3Wayne Garrett'69-'78 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,913 PA	5.9	3,913	61	38	236*	346*	370*	+15	+13	15.2	16.0
/162	664	10	6	+2.5	+2.2	2.6	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.5	4,315	100	42	242	328	386	+15	-1	15.6	15.2
/162	664	15	6	+2.4	-0.1	2.4	pk7: 15
#4Jeimer Candelariolast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,576 PA	5.4	3,576	110	19	237	316	412	+8	-5	12.7	13.0
/162	664	20	4	+1.6	-0.9	2.4	pk7: 13
#5Jim Lefebvre'65-'72 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,417 PA	5.1	3,417	74	8	250*	327*	411*	+11	-10	13.0	13.0
/162	664	14	2	+2.1	-2.0	2.5	pk7: 13
#6Yangervis Solartelast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,645 PA	4.0	2,645	75	6	258	315	408	+9	+3	9.4	9.4
/162	664	19	2	+2.4	+0.7	2.4	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Cronenworth (OGILVIE)	33	—	—	—	—	230/324/345	114	283	7	6	21%	10%	94	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ramón Vázquez 2010 · MLB	33	51→58	42→45	47→50	54	243/321/352	109	295	9	4	20%	10%	93	+0.8	226/289/307	81	280	6	5	20%	8%	71	-0.8	215/270/270	55	269	2	2	20%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Jace Peterson 2023 · MLB	33	48→57	48→50	56→55	53	237/323/383	145	302	15	18	26%	11%	101	+1.4	217/300/331	114	276	12	17	24%	10%	81	-0.1	203/293/293	90	259	9	21	23%	10%	71	-0.6
✕Eric Sogard 2020 · MLB	34	51→57	46→45	51→55	55	252/323/386	134	281	13	10	16%	9%	102	+1.5	241/299/354	113	277	11	9	17%	7%	85	+0.2	229/279/295	66	271	4	6	16%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Alejandro De Aza 2017 · MLB	33	49→59	46→50	48→55	48	239/311/378	139	299	13	12	24%	8%	95	+1.0	230/295/350	120	278	11	10	21%	7%	83	+0.1	229/290/342	113	276	9	10	20%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Mitch Maier 2013 · MLB	31	48→56	44→50	52→50	52	233/310/352	118	296	11	9	24%	10%	89	+0.5	228/298/350	122	308	13	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	259/340/362	102	329	10	11	22%	11%	97	+0.3
✕Grégor Blanco 2017 · MLB	33	53→62	41→45	53→60	53	252/321/364	112	298	7	17	18%	9%	95	+1.0	226/294/336	110	291	9	19	24%	9%	79	-0.2	209/277/318	109	271	11	19	26%	8%	68	-0.6
✕Jesse Castillo 2016 · AAA	33	56→61	43→45	50	52	269/329/383	114	307	10	15	16%	8%	103	+1.5	260/317/379	119	305	12	13	18%	8%	97	+1.1	260/318/374	114	305	13	12	18%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Jose Munoz 2012 · AAA	33	47→49	42→45	48→50	55	225/305/333	108	269	8	9	19%	10%	82	+0.0	204/276/298	94	265	8	8	25%	9%	64	-1.3	184/260/260	76	239	7	5	25%	9%	48	-1.0
✕Kolten Wong 2024 · MLB	33	47→57	48→50	49→55	50	236/312/381	145	271	15	14	19%	8%	97	+1.1	224/292/346	122	271	13	11	22%	7%	81	-0.1	199/253/270	71	252	6	8	23%	5%	47	-0.5
✕Rob Brantly 2022 · MLB	33	48→58	44→50	49→30	46	237/304/353	117	273	12	5	18%	6%	88	+0.4	223/289/315	92	269	7	5	19%	5%	74	-0.6	211/277/285	74	257	5	1	19%	5%	60	-0.5
✕David Freitas 2022 · MLB	33	49→59	46→45	47→40	51	243/313/370	127	289	14	7	21%	9%	95	+0.9	217/275/333	116	267	12	7	23%	7%	72	-0.7	204/257/306	102	247	11	0	22%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Brock Holt 2021 · MLB	33	53→63	42→45	46→50	52	254/332/364	110	317	8	8	21%	9%	100	+1.3	227/298/337	110	278	9	11	20%	9%	81	-0.1	209/282/298	90	256	4	12	19%	9%	65	-0.5
✕Cliff Pennington 2017 · MLB	33	45→54	41→45	53→55	49	220/289/318	98	277	9	8	23%	9%	73	-0.6	208/275/300	92	278	9	9	26%	8%	64	-1.3	187/258/263	76	251	7	9	27%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Joe Thurston 2013 · AAA	33	45→55	45	48→50	46	223/283/347	123	257	13	10	19%	6%	78	-0.3	227/290/321	94	267	8	11	17%	7%	74	-0.5	228/292/308	81	267	6	10	16%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Garrett Stubbs 2024 · MLB	31	47	45	54→50	51	229/307/352	123	286	12	11	24%	9%	88	+0.4	218/290/318	100	282	10	12	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/276/286	82	265	9	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Eddy Alvarez 2023 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	47→55	44	246/327/389	143	329	14	11	28%	7%	105	+1.7	214/293/350	136	282	14	20	28%	8%	84	+0.1	188/271/315	127	244	14	25	28%	8%	66	-0.6
✕Mike Freeman 2021 · MLB	33	49→59	45	43→55	47	236/307/357	121	310	13	8	27%	8%	89	+0.5	216/290/328	112	289	11	8	27%	9%	76	-0.4	185/264/270	85	252	8	6	28%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Nick Martini 2023 · MLB	33	47→57	45→50	46→45	48	229/310/351	121	293	12	7	25%	8%	89	+0.5	222/301/372	150	271	16	3	24%	8%	91	+0.7	211/294/352	141	254	15	0	23%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Yosmany Guerra 2016 · AA	33	47→57	43→40	47→45	50	228/293/340	112	279	10	8	22%	8%	80	-0.2	250/305/342	92	290	4	7	14%	7%	84	+0.1	257/314/353	96	298	5	5	15%	7%	88	+0.3

Jake Cronenworth

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps