Kyle Karros
3B Colorado Rockies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+COL | 539 | .311/.393/.485 | 15 | 12 | 83 | — | .242/.303/.364 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AACOL | 302 | .297/.392/.471 | 6 | 7 | 111 | — | .271/.346/.411 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBCOL | 156 | .226/.312/.277 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 0.3 | |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBCOL | 475 | .253/.350/.414 | 13 | 5 | 106 | 1.7 | |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBCOL | 466 | .246/.333/.390 | 11 | 6 | 96 | 1.1 | |
| 2028PROJ98% MLB | 26 | MLBCOL | 458 | .246/.333/.389 | 11 | 5 | 95 | 1.1 | |
| 2029PROJ98% MLB | 27 | MLBCOL | 452 | .244/.331/.386 | 11 | 5 | 94 | 1.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 96 | 81 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 368 | 284 | 652 | 25 | 323 | 18 | 12 | 308 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 60 | 49 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 327 | 450 | 408 | 858 | 82 | 390 | 13 | 17 | 394 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 539 | 472 | 147 | 33 | 2 | 15 | 54 | 123 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 311 | 393 | 485 | 878 | 174 | 391 | 23 | 10 | 388 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 156 | 137 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 312 | 277 | 589 | 51 | 309 | 26 | 10 | 274 | 67 | -6 | +0 | +4 | +2 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 68 | 62 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 306 | 368 | 500 | 868 | 194 | 354 | 18 | 7 | 382 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 234 | 197 | 58 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 45 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 294 | 399 | 462 | 861 | 168 | 362 | 19 | 14 | 383 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 475 | 411 | 104 | 21 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 100 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 253 | 350 | 414 | 763 | 161 | 302 | 21 | 11 | 342 | 106 | +4 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 17 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 400 | 471 | 667 | 1.137 | 267 | 455 | 18 | 12 | 493 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 631 | 548 | 135 | 25 | 3 | 14 | 69 | 141 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 246 | 340 | 380 | 720 | 133 | 304 | 22 | 11 | 325 | 106 | +5 | +1 | +3 | +3 | +14 | 2.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 96 | 84 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 316 | 250 | 566 | 24 | 298 | 24 | 9 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 60 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 245 | 333 | 302 | 635 | 57 | 312 | 20 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 539 | 492 | 119 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 167 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 242 | 303 | 364 | 667 | 122 | 333 | 31 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 156 | 137 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 305 | 270 | 575 | 51 | 309 | 26 | 10 | 268 | 67 | -6 | +0 | +4 | +2 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 68 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 309 | 381 | 690 | 127 | 327 | 22 | 6 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 234 | 207 | 57 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 54 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 275 | 356 | 420 | 777 | 145 | 352 | 23 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 475 | 413 | 99 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 100 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 240 | 335 | 385 | 720 | 145 | 302 | 21 | 11 | 325 | 106 | +4 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 17 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 375 | 412 | 625 | 1.037 | 250 | 428 | 24 | 6 | 415 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 156 | 137 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 234 | 323 | 270 | 593 | 36 | 311 | 22 | 10 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 156 | 130 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 285 | 400 | 331 | 731 | 46 | 349 | 16 | 14 | 341 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 539 | 492 | 119 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 167 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 242 | 303 | 364 | 667 | 122 | 340 | 31 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Spokane Indians | — | 539 | 472 | 147 | 33 | 2 | 15 | 54 | 123 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 311 | 393 | 485 | 878 | 174 | 391 | 23 | 10 | 388 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 458 | 408 | 104 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 110 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 255 | 332 | 365 | 697 | 110 | 334 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 458 | 396 | 108 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 52 | 98 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 273 | 365 | 404 | 769 | 131 | 344 | 21 | 11 | 346 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 429 | 104 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 104 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 242 | 335 | 385 | 720 | 142 | 291 | 21 | 11 | 328 | 108 | +5 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +11 | 1.9 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 492 | 426 | 110 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 103 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 258 | 354 | 423 | 776 | 164 | 308 | 21 | 11 | 347 | 108 | +5 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +11 | 1.9 |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 156 | 137 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 234 | 323 | 270 | 593 | 36 | 303 | 22 | 10 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 539 | 491 | 119 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 167 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 242 | 303 | 365 | 667 | 122 | 333 | 31 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 458 | 408 | 104 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 110 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 255 | 332 | 365 | 697 | 110 | 334 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 429 | 104 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 104 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 242 | 335 | 385 | 720 | 142 | 307 | 21 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 539 | 491 | 119 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 167 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 242 | 303 | 365 | 667 | 122 | 333 | 31 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 458 | 408 | 104 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 110 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 255 | 332 | 365 | 697 | 110 | 334 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 429 | 104 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 104 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 242 | 335 | 385 | 720 | 142 | 307 | 21 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | COL | 100% | 538 | 472 | 110 | 22 | 2 | 11 | 54 | 120 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 234 | 322 | 363 | 685 | 129 | 287 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 96 | -3 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 1.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | COL | 100% | 466 | 410 | 101 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 47 | 104 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 246 | 333 | 390 | 723 | 144 | 301 | 22 | 10 | 324 | 96 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | COL | 98% | 467 | 411 | 96 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 104 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 322 | 362 | 684 | 129 | 287 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | COL | 98% | 461 | 405 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 104 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 321 | 359 | 680 | 127 | 286 | 23 | 10 | 308 | 94 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | COL | 98% | 452 | 397 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 46 | 103 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 319 | 354 | 673 | 124 | 285 | 23 | 10 | 305 | 92 | -4 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | COL | 98% | 438 | 386 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 101 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 316 | 348 | 663 | 120 | 284 | 23 | 10 | 301 | 90 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | COL | 98% | 423 | 373 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 42 | 99 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 224 | 312 | 339 | 651 | 115 | 281 | 23 | 10 | 296 | 86 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | COL | 98% | 404 | 356 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 96 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 306 | 327 | 634 | 108 | 277 | 24 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -9 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | COL | 98% | 458 | 403 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 102 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 246 | 333 | 389 | 722 | 144 | 301 | 22 | 10 | 324 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | COL | 98% | 452 | 397 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 102 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 244 | 331 | 386 | 718 | 142 | 300 | 23 | 10 | 322 | 94 | -3 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | COL | 98% | 443 | 389 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 101 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 242 | 329 | 380 | 709 | 138 | 298 | 23 | 10 | 319 | 92 | -4 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | COL | 98% | 429 | 378 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 43 | 99 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 326 | 373 | 698 | 133 | 297 | 23 | 10 | 315 | 90 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | COL | 98% | 415 | 365 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 97 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 322 | 362 | 684 | 127 | 294 | 23 | 10 | 309 | 86 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | COL | 98% | 396 | 349 | 81 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 316 | 350 | 665 | 120 | 289 | 24 | 10 | 301 | 82 | -9 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +9 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3224 | 2829 | 683 | 132 | 17 | 72 | 330 | 736 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 241 | 330 | 376 | 706 | 135 | 300 | 23 | 10 | 317 | 92 | -25 | +2 | +4 | +13 | +70 | 6.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 570 | 138 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 148 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 242 | 330 | 379 | 709 | 137 | 300 | 23 | 10 | 317 | 92 | -5 | +0 | +1 | +3 | +14 | 1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4756 | 4204 | 986 | 194 | 20 | 91 | 456 | 1127 | 64 | 52 | 14 | 235 | 319 | 355 | 674 | 121 | 297 | 24 | 10 | 304 | 92 | -28 | +2 | +6 | +15 | +81 | 7.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 135 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 62 | 154 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 235 | 319 | 355 | 674 | 120 | 299 | 24 | 10 | 304 | 92 | -5 | +0 | +1 | +3 | +14 | 1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 17 PAwOBA .479 → .415 (−64)K% 17.6% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 32.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 6.58% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .479 → .415; ISO .267 → .215; BABIP .455 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 234 PAwOBA .372 → .337 (−36)K% 19.2% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷0.940 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.03% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 22.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.18% | ÷0.913 | ×0.860 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 10.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.255 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .372 → .337; ISO .168 → .143; BABIP .362 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 68 PAwOBA .372 → .314 (−58)K% 17.6% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.945 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.020 | ×1.050 | 22.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.050 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.970 | ×1.020 | ×1.050 | 2.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .372 → .314; ISO .194 → .153; BABIP .354 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Spokane Indians · 539 PAwOBA .380 → .291 (−89)K% 22.8% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.82% | ÷0.996 | ×1.350 | — | — | 30.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.83% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.79% | ÷0.999 | ×0.910 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 25.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.46% | ÷1.098 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.907 | ×0.820 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.086 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 3.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 81, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .380 → .291; ISO .174 → .126; BABIP .391 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 96 PAwOBA .305 → .257 (−47)K% 17.7% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.71% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.69% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×1.015 | 27.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.946 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.015 | 2.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.910 | ×0.983 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.186 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 97, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .305 → .257; ISO .025 → .021; BABIP .323 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Rockies · 60 PAwOBA .385 → .285 (−100)K% 13.3% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.999 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 10.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.71% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 26.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.137 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 101, 3B 127, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .385 → .285; ISO .082 → .055; BABIP .390 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).