Kyle Karros — OGILVIE

Kyle Karros3B Colorado Rockies

Age 24 R/R 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.302 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION323 act + 215 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 1843vR 107

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .323 / .377

PA215

HR5

K%23

BB%11

BABIP288

ISO143

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

903.7%

xwOBA

560.315

POWER30

Barrel%

336.1

Avg EV

5189.2

Bat Spd

3870.1

EYE55

Chase%

909.2%

SPEED50

Sprint

4027.0

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 247 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

189

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

260

285

▶R

ISO

058

064

▶R

BABIP

272

287

▶R

20.7%

23.8%

◀L

BB%

10.3%

13.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.302 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.2	$9M	+$9M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$20M	+$19M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$19M	+$18M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.6	$17M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$9M	+2.4	$14M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+2.2	$12M	+$5M
Totals		$29M		$91M	+$71M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	156	136	32	3	1	0	16	35	3	3	0	235	329	272	601	37	314	22	10	271	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	156	130	37	4	1	0	22	25	3	3	0	285	400	331	731	46	349	16	14	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	539	499	109	19	2	10	27	174	9	12	5	218	271	325	596	106	310	32	5	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	539	472	147	33	2	15	54	123	9	12	5	311	393	485	878	174	391	23	10	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	3 teams	—	458	407	96	24	2	5	42	114	6	7	0	236	316	342	658	106	313	25	9	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	3 teams	—	458	396	108	25	3	7	52	98	6	7	0	273	365	404	769	131	344	21	11	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	MLB	COL	—	323	278	73	18	2	9	40	68	3	3	0	263	361	439	800	176	315	21	12	348	124	+9	+1	-0	+1	+9	2.0
YTD	24	MLB	COL	—	323	278	73	18	2	9	40	68	3	3	0	263	361	439	800	176	315	21	12	356	131	+11	+1	-0	+1	+9	2.2
ROS	24	MLB	COL	100%	215	188	44	10	1	5	23	49	2	2	0	234	323	377	700	143	290	23	11	314	99	-0	+0	+2	+1	+6	0.9
ROS	24	MLB	COL	100%	215	188	48	12	1	5	23	49	2	2	0	255	343	410	752	154	313	23	11	328	109	+2	+0	+2	+1	+6	1.2
FULL	24	MLB	COL	—	538	466	121	30	3	14	63	117	5	5	0	260	354	427	781	167	317	22	12	340	118	+11	+1	+2	+2	+15	3.2
TOT	24	MLB	COL	—	538	466	117	28	3	14	63	117	5	5	0	251	346	414	760	163	304	22	12	334	114	+9	+1	+2	+2	+15	2.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	COL	82%	644	563	132	31	3	14	69	146	7	7	1	234	326	375	700	140	288	23	11	314	99	-1	+1	+6	+2	+18	2.7
2028	26	MLB	COL	82%	632	552	129	30	3	14	68	143	7	7	1	234	325	375	700	141	288	23	11	315	99	-0	+1	+6	+2	+18	2.7
2029	27	MLB	COL	82%	619	539	125	29	3	13	68	140	7	7	1	232	326	369	695	137	288	23	11	315	99	-0	+1	+5	+2	+18	2.6
2030	28	MLB	COL	82%	607	529	123	29	3	13	67	138	6	6	1	233	326	372	698	140	287	23	11	314	99	-1	+1	+5	+2	+17	2.4
2031	29	MLB	COL	82%	594	517	119	28	3	12	66	137	6	6	1	230	324	366	690	135	286	23	11	312	97	-2	+1	+4	+2	+17	2.2
2032	30	MLB	COL	82%	583	507	116	27	3	12	65	136	6	5	1	229	324	365	688	136	285	23	11	309	95	-3	+1	+3	+2	+17	1.9
2033	31	MLB	COL	82%	571	497	111	26	2	11	63	135	6	4	1	223	318	350	668	127	282	24	11	305	92	-5	+0	+2	+2	+16	1.6
2034	32	MLB	COL	82%	559	486	107	25	2	10	62	134	6	4	1	220	316	342	657	121	278	24	11	299	87	-8	+0	+1	+2	+16	1.2
2035	33	MLB	COL	82%	482	421	89	20	2	8	53	118	5	2	0	211	307	325	632	114	273	24	11	291	81	-10	+0	+0	+2	+14	0.6
2036	34	MLB	COL	77%	408	356	74	16	2	7	45	102	4	1	0	208	304	323	627	115	266	25	11	282	74	-12	+0	-1	+1	+12	-0.0
2027	25	MLB	COL	82%	528	460	117	28	3	13	57	119	6	6	1	254	344	413	757	159	311	23	11	328	109	+5	+1	+5	+2	+15	2.8
2028	26	MLB	COL	82%	518	452	115	28	3	13	56	117	5	6	1	254	343	416	759	162	311	23	11	329	110	+6	+1	+5	+2	+15	2.8
2029	27	MLB	COL	82%	508	442	113	27	3	13	56	115	5	6	1	256	346	419	764	163	311	23	11	329	110	+6	+1	+4	+2	+14	2.8
2030	28	MLB	COL	82%	498	435	109	26	3	12	55	114	5	5	1	251	341	407	748	156	310	23	11	328	109	+5	+1	+4	+2	+14	2.6
2031	29	MLB	COL	82%	487	425	106	26	2	12	54	112	5	5	1	249	341	405	746	155	309	23	11	325	107	+4	+1	+3	+2	+14	2.4
2032	30	MLB	COL	82%	478	417	102	25	2	11	53	111	5	4	1	245	337	393	730	149	308	23	11	322	105	+3	+0	+2	+2	+14	2.1
2033	31	MLB	COL	82%	468	408	99	24	2	11	52	110	5	4	1	243	335	392	728	150	305	24	11	318	101	+1	+0	+2	+2	+13	1.8
2034	32	MLB	COL	82%	458	399	95	23	2	10	51	110	5	3	1	238	332	381	713	143	300	24	11	311	96	-2	+0	+1	+2	+13	1.4
2035	33	MLB	COL	82%	395	345	80	19	2	8	43	97	4	2	0	232	324	368	692	136	295	25	11	303	90	-4	+0	+0	+1	+11	0.9
2036	34	MLB	COL	77%	316	275	61	14	1	6	35	79	3	1	0	222	316	345	662	124	287	25	11	293	82	-6	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5025	4383	1076	256	24	115	550	1174	52	44	8	245	337	394	730	148	308	23	11	319	102	+13	+6	+30	+19	+142	21.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	139	33	3	15	71	152	7	6	1	245	336	393	730	148	308	23	11	319	102	+2	+1	+4	+2	+18	2.8
Career	—			—	7067	6197	1406	317	32	134	734	1701	80	73	13	227	317	353	670	126	289	24	10	302	89	-85	+9	+36	+25	+200	19.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	129	29	3	12	68	156	7	7	1	226	316	351	667	125	289	24	10	302	89	-8	+1	+3	+2	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	96	81	21	2	0	0	12	17	2	0	0	259	368	284	652	25	323	18	12	308	94	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2023	21	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	60	49	16	2	1	0	10	8	1	3	0	327	450	408	858	82	390	13	17	394	160	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	539	472	147	33	2	15	54	123	9	12	5	311	393	485	878	174	391	23	10	388	155	+33	+0	—	—	+15	5.0
2025	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	156	137	31	4	0	1	15	41	2	0	0	226	312	277	589	51	309	26	10	274	68	-6	+0	+4	+2	+4	0.4
2025	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	68	62	19	4	1	2	5	12	1	0	0	306	368	500	868	194	354	18	7	382	151	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	234	197	58	17	2	4	32	45	3	7	0	294	399	462	861	168	362	19	14	383	151	+14	+1	—	—	+7	2.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	156	137	31	4	0	1	15	41	2	0	0	226	312	277	589	51	309	26	10	274	68	-6	+0	+4	+2	+4	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	13	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
	/162	664	18	5	233	301	384	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,656	112	51	228	317	359	+20	+22	13.0	12.2
	/162	664	13	6	228	317	359	+2.4	+2.6	1.5	pk7: 11
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#5Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#6Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kyle Karros (OGILVIE)	24	40	30	50	55	251/346/414	163	304	14	5	22%	12%	114	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Lou Marson 2011 · MLB	25	47→54	40	51→50	52	224/299/323	99	276	7	11	21%	9%	76	+0.0	218/303/304	86	282	5	11	22%	10%	72	-0.2	224/319/287	63	297	1	9	22%	12%	73	-0.1
✕Carter Kieboom 2023 · MLB	25	44→50	45→50	43→45	52	220/315/340	120	274	14	5	24%	10%	89	+0.9	222/293/341	119	290	14	7	27%	8%	78	+0.2	231/290/331	100	300	10	7	25%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Choo Freeman 2005 · MLB	25	46→49	45	49→45	57	223/312/353	130	268	11	9	21%	11%	89	+1.0	234/287/348	114	301	11	8	24%	7%	76	+0.1	234/285/336	103	304	9	7	25%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB	25	44	46→45	47→45	46	220/285/349	129	256	15	7	20%	6%	77	+0.1	226/286/352	126	257	15	8	18%	6%	78	+0.2	233/280/331	98	262	9	1	14%	4%	68	-0.2
●José Fermín 2023 · AAA	24	44→50	43→45	45→55	52	215/294/321	106	241	11	11	16%	8%	74	-0.1	232/319/362	130	252	13	19	14%	9%	95	+1.4	256/343/399	143	276	14	28	13%	10%	110	+1.2
✕Matt Antonelli 2009 · MLB	24	43→52	44→45	48→50	53	214/296/327	114	253	11	11	20%	9%	76	+0.1	210/286/325	115	251	11	8	20%	9%	71	-0.3	209/285/325	116	249	10	5	20%	8%	67	-0.2
●J.P. Crawford 2019 · MLB	24	41→51	43→45	49→50	50	203/285/318	115	257	10	8	24%	9%	69	-0.4	241/318/362	121	299	10	9	21%	9%	94	+1.3	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9
✕Andrew Knizner 2020 · MLB	25	49	46→50	47→40	45	245/295/372	127	277	15	5	18%	5%	87	+0.8	221/293/330	109	267	11	5	21%	8%	76	+0.0	218/299/361	142	257	17	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Mark Mathias 2019 · AA	24	44→47	44→50	52→50	46	217/293/343	126	288	11	10	27%	8%	79	+0.3	231/291/365	134	292	12	13	24%	7%	83	+0.6	246/320/384	138	320	15	17	26%	9%	98	+1.0
✕Bryan Lavastida 2023 · MLB	24	42→44	45	50→55	44	212/277/334	122	277	12	12	27%	7%	69	-0.4	218/287/339	121	283	12	21	26%	7%	75	-0.0	219/292/337	118	281	12	27	25%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Ruben Gotay 2007 · MLB	24	46→51	44→45	44→50	45	227/276/346	118	267	11	8	20%	6%	72	-0.2	239/310/365	126	291	12	8	21%	9%	91	+1.1	232/338/349	117	300	9	1	23%	13%	96	+1.0
✕Gilberto Celestino 2023 · MLB	24	48→53	40→45	48→55	48	228/297/323	94	294	8	8	24%	8%	75	-0.0	235/307/327	92	305	8	12	24%	9%	80	+0.4	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Brendan Rodgers 2021 · MLB	24	44→50	45→50	49→45	40	223/272/347	123	282	13	8	26%	5%	70	-0.3	236/289/362	126	280	13	2	20%	6%	82	+0.5	233/290/354	121	275	12	0	19%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Hudson Haskin 2023 · AA	24	46→44	44→40	49→50	42	223/302/343	120	303	11	11	28%	6%	83	+0.6	215/302/318	103	314	9	18	32%	8%	77	+0.1	198/295/280	82	307	7	24	34%	8%	62	-0.4
✕German Duran 2009 · MLB	24	47→50	49→50	48→45	43	239/281/389	150	276	16	8	20%	5%	85	+0.7	214/257/311	97	256	9	6	20%	5%	54	-1.4	202/242/268	66	242	6	4	19%	4%	34	-1.2
✕Tim Hummel 2004 · MLB	25	47→45	48→45	48→30	53	236/303/381	145	259	16	7	16%	9%	92	+1.2	225/287/344	119	253	12	5	16%	7%	76	+0.1	217/276/322	104	246	9	2	15%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Aaron Luna 2011 · AAA	24	43→44	49→50	50→45	49	217/325/371	154	268	16	7	25%	9%	101	+1.8	232/318/376	144	295	16	9	26%	8%	98	+1.6	231/316/372	142	294	19	8	27%	7%	96	+0.7
✕Andre Lipcius 2022 · AA	24	43→49	45→50	48→45	46	216/277/342	126	275	12	7	26%	8%	71	-0.3	233/304/373	140	288	16	8	23%	9%	91	+1.1	234/306/379	145	288	18	7	24%	9%	90	+1.0
✕Corey Joyce 2023 · AAA	24	43	48→45	49→50	47	214/311/358	144	295	16	11	31%	10%	92	+1.2	211/307/316	105	308	10	14	32%	10%	79	+0.3	212/300/316	104	302	10	14	31%	9%	72	-0.1
✕Francisco Urbaez 2022 · AAA	24	49→56	40→45	48→45	48	235/302/331	96	291	6	6	21%	7%	79	+0.3	234/297/336	102	294	9	7	22%	7%	78	+0.2	254/315/364	110	294	7	6	15%	7%	91	+0.7