Ethan Salas — OGILVIE

Ethan SalasC San Antonio Missions

Age 20 L/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AA HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION267 act + 178 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .284 / .325

PA178

HR3

SB6

K%21

BB%7

BABIP276

ISO98

MLB%6%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED42

scouting grade only

DEFENSE70

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$14M	+$13M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.6	$14M	+$11M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+2.6	$13M	+$9M
2033	Arb-3	$12M	+2.6	$12M	+$6M
Totals		$28M		$80M	+$64M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	A	3 teams	—	290	263	51	8	2	6	21	108	3	5	3	194	261	308	569	114	296	37	7	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	A	3 teams	—	290	254	63	13	2	9	30	75	3	5	3	248	334	421	756	173	312	26	10	335	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A+	2 teams	—	576	526	88	27	2	5	38	169	4	14	4	167	229	255	484	87	231	29	7	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A+	2 teams	—	576	504	106	33	2	8	60	125	4	14	4	210	299	331	631	121	259	22	10	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	41	34	7	1	0	0	4	6	1	2	0	206	308	235	543	29	241	15	10	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	41	32	6	1	0	0	6	5	1	2	0	188	333	219	552	31	214	12	15	262	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	AA	SD	—	267	243	64	10	0	7	17	49	1	14	5	263	314	391	705	128	295	18	6	305	92	-3	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.1
YTD	20	AA	SD	—	267	232	66	11	0	7	27	38	1	14	5	284	360	422	783	138	306	14	10	343	121	+6	+1	+0	+5	+8	2.0
ROS	20	AA	SD	6%	178	163	37	7	0	3	12	38	1	6	2	227	284	325	609	98	277	21	7	280	72	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
ROS	20	MLB	SD	6%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	200	273	200	473		274	18	9	272	66	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	20	AA	SD	—	278	253	66	10	0	7	18	51	1	14	5	261	312	383	696	123	294	18	6	304	91	-3	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.1
TOT	20	AA	SD	—	445	406	101	17	0	10	29	87	2	20	7	249	302	365	667	116	288	20	7	295	84	-8	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	SD	37%	431	395	92	18	1	9	30	90	3	10	3	233	292	352	644	119	278	21	7	287	78	-11	+1	+1	+8	+12	1.1
2028	22	MLB	SD	49%	506	461	110	21	1	12	36	103	4	11	4	239	299	367	666	128	280	20	7	298	86	-8	+1	+1	+9	+14	1.7
2029	23	MLB	SD	55%	520	472	115	22	1	14	39	104	4	11	4	244	307	383	690	140	281	20	8	306	92	-4	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.2
2030	24	MLB	SD	56%	520	472	116	22	1	15	39	103	4	10	3	246	309	392	701	146	282	20	8	311	96	-2	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.4
2031	25	MLB	SD	56%	520	471	116	22	1	15	40	102	4	9	3	246	311	393	703	146	282	20	8	314	99	-1	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.6
2032	26	MLB	SD	56%	520	471	116	22	1	15	40	102	4	9	3	246	311	393	703	146	282	20	8	315	99	-0	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.6
2033	27	MLB	SD	55%	520	470	115	22	1	15	41	102	4	9	3	245	311	391	702	147	282	20	8	315	99	-0	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.6
2034	28	MLB	SD	55%	520	470	115	22	1	15	41	103	4	8	3	245	311	391	702	147	281	20	8	314	99	-1	+0	+1	+9	+15	2.5
2035	29	MLB	SD	53%	520	469	115	22	1	15	42	104	4	8	3	245	313	392	705	147	281	20	8	312	97	-2	+0	-0	+9	+15	2.3
2036	30	MLB	SD	53%	520	469	114	21	1	15	42	105	4	7	2	243	311	388	699	145	279	20	8	309	95	-3	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.1
2037	31	MLB	SD	52%	504	455	109	20	1	14	40	103	4	6	2	240	307	380	687	141	277	20	8	305	92	-5	+0	-2	+9	+14	1.8
2038	32	MLB	SD	56%	481	437	103	19	1	13	38	101	3	5	2	236	301	373	674	137	274	21	8	300	87	-7	+0	-2	+9	+14	1.4
2039	33	MLB	SD	59%	440	399	91	16	1	11	35	94	3	5	2	228	295	356	651	128	270	21	8	292	82	-9	+0	-3	+8	+12	0.9
2027	21	MLB	SD	37%	159	146	33	6	0	3	11	33	1	4	1	226	285	329	614	103	275	21	7	278	71	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2028	22	MLB	SD	49%	250	228	54	10	1	6	18	51	2	6	2	237	298	368	667	132	276	20	7	288	79	-6	+0	+1	+4	+7	0.7
2029	23	MLB	SD	55%	284	259	62	12	1	7	21	57	2	6	2	239	301	375	676	135	277	20	7	296	85	-5	+0	+1	+5	+8	1.0
2030	24	MLB	SD	56%	289	263	64	12	1	8	22	57	2	6	2	243	307	388	694	144	278	20	8	301	89	-4	+0	+1	+5	+8	1.1
2031	25	MLB	SD	56%	292	266	64	12	1	8	22	57	2	5	2	241	303	383	687	143	279	20	8	304	91	-3	+0	+1	+5	+8	1.2
2032	26	MLB	SD	56%	293	266	64	12	1	8	23	57	2	5	2	241	306	383	689	143	278	19	8	305	92	-3	+0	+1	+5	+8	1.2
2033	27	MLB	SD	55%	288	261	64	12	1	8	23	57	2	5	2	245	311	391	702	146	278	20	8	305	92	-3	+0	+1	+5	+8	1.2
2034	28	MLB	SD	55%	285	258	63	12	1	8	23	56	2	4	1	244	311	391	702	147	278	20	8	304	91	-3	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.1
2035	29	MLB	SD	53%	278	252	61	11	1	8	22	56	2	4	1	242	308	389	697	147	277	20	8	302	90	-3	+0	-0	+5	+8	1.0
2036	30	MLB	SD	53%	274	248	59	11	1	7	22	55	2	4	1	238	305	375	680	137	276	20	8	300	87	-4	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.9
2037	31	MLB	SD	52%	263	238	55	10	0	7	21	54	2	3	1	231	299	361	660	130	274	21	8	296	84	-5	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.7
2038	32	MLB	SD	56%	270	244	56	10	0	7	22	56	2	3	1	230	299	357	655	127	270	21	8	290	80	-6	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.5
2039	33	MLB	SD	59%	259	234	52	9	0	6	21	56	2	3	1	222	292	338	629	115	266	22	8	284	75	-7	+0	-2	+5	+7	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3495	3173	753	139	9	91	272	704	25	58	19	237	303	373	675	136	277	20	8	297	86	-57	+4	+0	+62	+99	11.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	141	26	2	17	51	131	5	11	4	239	305	376	681	137	279	20	8	297	86	-11	+1	+0	+12	+18	2.1
Career	—			—	7607	6897	1610	312	17	192	578	1637	58	135	46	233	298	367	665	134	277	22	8	296	85	-129	+9	+2	+136	+216	23.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	137	27	1	16	49	140	5	12	4	233	297	363	660	131	277	22	8	296	85	-11	+1	+0	+12	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	33	28	5	1	0	0	4	8	1	0	1	179	303	214	517	36	250	24	12	255	54	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	17	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	37	35	7	1	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	200	243	229	472	29	280	27	5	219	26	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	17	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	220	191	51	11	2	9	24	57	2	5	2	267	355	487	842	220	328	26	11	366	138	+10	+0	—	—	+6	1.6
2024	18	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	469	412	85	27	2	4	47	98	3	10	3	206	292	311	603	104	256	21	10	274	68	-17	+1	—	—	+13	-0.3
2024	18	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	107	92	21	6	0	4	13	27	1	4	1	228	330	424	754	196	274	25	12	334	114	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	41	32	6	1	0	0	6	5	1	2	0	188	333	219	552	31	214	12	15	262	58	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	11	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
	/162	664	22	1	250	313	411	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#2Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#3Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,503	95	57	242	303	384	+63	+56	13.5	11.3
	/162	664	18	11	242	303	384	+11.9	+10.6	2.6	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Salas (OGILVIE)	20	36→44	39→49	46→42	47	249/302/365	116	288	10	20	20%	7%	84	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	56	-1.3	205/280/294	89	283	5	16	27%	8%	59	-1.1	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Shed Long Jr. 2016 · A	20	42→47	42→50	43→50	42	210/262/309	99	277	9	6	27%	6%	56	-1.3	229/287/360	131	315	13	11	30%	7%	80	+0.4	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	35→45	42→55	45→50	44	176/254/278	102	265	9	7	35%	9%	46	-2.0	196/287/331	135	277	14	9	32%	11%	73	-0.1	224/298/396	172	291	21	8	29%	9%	92	+0.9
●Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	40→47	42→60	46→55	43	200/256/299	99	268	10	9	28%	7%	51	-1.7	204/265/350	146	271	17	13	30%	7%	69	-0.4	226/293/417	190	275	23	21	26%	8%	95	+1.4
✕Jason Martin 2016 · A	20	47→49	40→60	47→50	46	223/277/318	95	286	6	10	24%	7%	64	-0.8	216/268/357	141	296	14	13	30%	6%	71	-0.3	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→49	42→50	47→45	45	219/283/320	101	283	10	12	26%	7%	68	-0.5	232/313/374	142	284	14	9	22%	10%	95	+1.4	227/311/374	147	272	15	9	21%	10%	92	+1.1
✕Edmundo Sosa 2016 · A	20	44→49	41→55	49→50	43	217/268/318	101	262	9	8	21%	5%	61	-1.0	229/266/310	81	299	6	6	24%	4%	56	-1.3	252/297/422	170	304	19	9	23%	4%	99	+0.8
✕Anthony Seigler 2019 · A	20	45→39	38→50	48→55	50	214/284/293	79	268	6	5	22%	8%	61	-1.0	194/272/271	77	286	5	5	31%	9%	52	-1.6	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
●Jorbit Vivas 2021 · A	20	46→56	37→45	49→50	46	217/288/299	82	276	3	11	21%	7%	66	-0.6	248/321/370	122	279	11	7	15%	7%	98	+1.6	245/326/365	120	273	11	9	14%	7%	96	+1.4
●Bo Naylor 2021 · A	21	40→44	44→55	51→50	41	201/254/327	127	274	11	7	30%	6%	57	-1.2	199/281/358	159	276	19	13	33%	10%	79	+0.3	218/311/403	185	271	23	12	27%	11%	99	+1.3
✕Francisco Mejía 2016 · A	20	42→52	40→55	47→40	43	207/264/294	86	261	8	5	24%	6%	53	-1.5	249/288/373	124	302	13	4	21%	4%	83	+0.6	256/302/428	172	302	17	1	21%	5%	103	+1.0
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	45→54	41→50	45→55	47	217/279/316	98	271	8	11	23%	7%	65	-0.7	239/313/375	136	278	16	17	19%	9%	95	+1.4	230/306/371	141	263	18	23	20%	9%	88	+0.7
●Jordany Valdespin 2008 · A	20	43→53	37→50	49→55	48	202/278/277	75	266	4	10	24%	8%	56	-1.3	223/264/322	99	273	7	13	20%	5%	59	-1.1	256/296/403	147	298	17	28	20%	4%	92	+0.7
✕Austin Hedges 2014 · AA	21	45→40	41→60	44→45	44	219/272/319	100	268	7	11	21%	6%	63	-0.8	211/250/317	106	267	10	5	25%	4%	53	-1.5	227/269/415	187	271	26	4	27%	5%	84	+0.4
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
●Josh VanMeter 2017 · AA	22	42→47	44→55	46→50	46	211/265/324	113	252	13	8	22%	7%	61	-1.0	219/271/343	124	274	12	12	24%	7%	69	-0.4	229/304/413	184	278	20	12	24%	9%	99	+1.3
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	43	40→50	42→45	47	204/282/302	97	297	7	6	32%	10%	63	-0.8	179/241/260	81	267	8	5	34%	7%	35	-2.8	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
✕Nelson Quiroz 2021 · A	19	44	37→40	47→40	45	209/268/279	70	271	5	6	24%	7%	50	-1.7	225/289/328	103	278	7	5	20%	8%	72	-0.2	255/307/326	71	293	2	0	13%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Greg Garcia 2011 · A	21	46→54	40	44→50	43	222/277/317	96	274	7	8	22%	5%	65	-0.7	237/310/328	91	301	5	9	21%	8%	82	+0.5	242/351/334	92	309	6	3	21%	13%	98	+0.8
●Ramón Urías 2015 · AAA	21	43→53	41→50	42→50	42	211/273/306	95	261	8	9	22%	5%	61	-1.0	249/310/358	109	302	10	13	20%	5%	89	+1.0	261/328/377	117	313	12	14	20%	5%	99	+1.0