Luke Stevenson — OGILVIE

Luke StevensonC Everett AquaSox

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION305 act + 203 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .298 / .308

PA203

HR5

K%35

BB%13

BABIP267

ISO128

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED34

scouting grade only

DEFENSE56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$12M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+2.1	$12M	+$9M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+2.0	$10M	+$7M
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+1.8	$8M	+$4M
Totals		$21M		$68M	+$56M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Modesto Nuts	—	100	81	21	3	1	2	17	23	2	1	0	259	400	395	795	136	339	23	17	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Modesto Nuts	—	100	75	21	4	1	1	23	19	2	1	0	280	460	400	860	120	364	19	23	399	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	SEA	—	305	257	43	12	0	8	41	119	3	5	1	167	289	307	596	140	261	39	13	270	65	-12	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.3
YTD	22	A+	SEA	—	305	232	55	17	0	10	66	85	3	5	1	237	412	440	852	203	319	28	22	381	150	+17	+1	+0	+5	+9	3.2
ROS	22	A+	SEA	0%	203	172	31	7	0	5	27	71	2	3	1	180	298	308	606	128	276	35	13	289	79	-5	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.5
ROS	22	MLB	SEA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						273	0	0	278	71	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	A+	SEA	—	306	258	43	12	0	8	41	119	3	5	1	167	288	306	594	140	259	39	13	270	65	-12	+1	-0	+5	+9	0.3
TOT	22	A+	SEA	—	508	429	74	19	0	13	68	190	5	8	2	172	293	307	600	135	264	37	13	277	71	-17	+1	-0	+9	+14	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	SEA	43%	520	443	86	19	1	14	67	178	5	6	1	194	307	336	643	142	282	34	13	295	84	-9	+1	-0	+9	+15	1.6
2028	24	MLB	SEA	58%	520	444	90	19	2	15	66	173	5	6	1	203	313	356	668	153	284	33	13	301	89	-7	+1	-0	+9	+15	1.8
2029	25	MLB	SEA	65%	520	445	92	19	2	16	65	169	5	6	1	207	315	366	681	160	285	32	12	305	91	-5	+1	-0	+9	+15	2.0
2030	26	MLB	SEA	68%	520	445	92	19	2	16	65	168	5	6	1	207	315	366	681	160	285	32	12	307	93	-4	+1	-0	+9	+15	2.1
2031	27	MLB	SEA	68%	520	444	92	19	2	16	66	168	5	5	1	207	317	367	684	160	284	32	13	307	93	-4	+1	-0	+9	+15	2.1
2032	28	MLB	SEA	68%	520	444	90	19	1	16	66	169	5	5	1	203	313	358	671	155	284	32	13	306	92	-5	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.0
2033	29	MLB	SEA	66%	520	444	90	19	1	16	66	170	5	5	1	203	313	358	671	155	283	33	13	304	91	-5	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.8
2034	30	MLB	SEA	66%	520	444	89	19	1	15	66	171	5	5	1	200	311	349	660	149	281	33	13	301	89	-7	+1	-2	+9	+15	1.6
2035	31	MLB	SEA	65%	500	427	84	18	1	14	64	166	5	5	1	197	308	342	650	145	278	33	13	297	86	-8	+1	-3	+9	+14	1.3
2036	32	MLB	SEA	65%	475	408	78	16	1	13	60	160	4	4	1	191	301	331	632	140	274	34	13	292	81	-10	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.9
2037	33	MLB	SEA	65%	397	341	65	13	1	11	50	136	3	3	1	191	299	331	631	141	270	34	13	285	76	-11	+0	-4	+7	+11	0.4
2038	34	MLB	SEA	60%	324	277	51	10	1	8	41	113	3	2	1	184	296	314	610	130	263	35	13	277	70	-11	+0	-5	+6	+9	-0.1
2039	35	MLB	SEA	56%	265	228	38	7	0	6	33	94	2	2	0	167	278	276	554	110	256	35	12	267	63	-11	+0	-6	+5	+8	-0.4
2027	23	MLB	SEA	43%	225	192	37	8	1	6	29	77	2	3	1	193	305	339	643	146	279	34	13	285	77	-6	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.5
2028	24	MLB	SEA	58%	302	258	52	11	1	9	38	100	3	3	1	202	311	357	668	155	281	33	13	291	81	-6	+0	-0	+5	+9	0.8
2029	25	MLB	SEA	65%	337	289	58	12	1	10	42	110	3	4	1	201	308	353	661	152	282	33	12	295	84	-6	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.0
2030	26	MLB	SEA	68%	354	304	62	13	1	11	44	114	3	4	1	204	311	362	672	158	282	32	12	297	85	-6	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.1
2031	27	MLB	SEA	68%	354	303	62	13	1	11	45	115	3	4	1	205	313	363	676	158	281	32	13	297	85	-6	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.1
2032	28	MLB	SEA	68%	354	303	62	13	1	11	45	115	3	4	1	205	313	363	676	158	281	32	13	296	85	-6	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.0
2033	29	MLB	SEA	66%	345	295	59	12	1	10	44	113	3	3	1	200	310	349	659	149	280	33	13	294	83	-7	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.9
2034	30	MLB	SEA	66%	341	292	58	12	1	10	43	112	3	3	1	199	308	349	657	151	278	33	13	291	81	-7	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.7
2035	31	MLB	SEA	65%	325	278	54	11	1	9	41	108	3	3	1	194	304	338	642	144	276	33	13	288	78	-8	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.5
2036	32	MLB	SEA	65%	307	262	50	10	1	8	39	103	3	3	1	191	303	328	631	137	272	34	13	282	74	-9	+0	-2	+5	+9	0.3
2037	33	MLB	SEA	65%	256	220	41	8	1	7	32	88	2	2	0	186	295	327	623	141	267	34	12	276	69	-9	+0	-3	+5	+7	0.1
2038	34	MLB	SEA	60%	195	166	30	6	0	5	25	68	2	1	0	181	295	307	603	127	260	35	13	268	63	-8	+0	-3	+3	+6	-0.2
2039	35	MLB	SEA	56%	147	127	21	4	0	3	18	52	1	1	0	165	274	268	542	102	253	35	12	259	56	-7	+0	-3	+3	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3843	3290	646	133	11	110	485	1275	34	38	10	196	306	344	650	147	278	33	13	288	79	-92	+4	-16	+69	+109	7.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	556	109	22	2	19	82	216	6	6	2	196	306	345	651	149	277	33	13	288	79	-15	+0	-3	+12	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	6424	5487	1089	226	17	183	819	2129	61	64	13	198	309	346	655	147	282	33	13	298	86	-100	+8	-25	+115	+182	18.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	555	111	23	2	19	83	215	6	6	1	200	310	351	661	151	284	33	13	298	86	-10	+1	-3	+12	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Modesto Nuts	—	100	75	21	4	1	1	23	19	2	1	0	280	460	400	860	120	364	19	23	399	164	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	12	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
	/162	664	19	1	227	312	387	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,843	112	38	199	305	349	+63	+20	11.6	10.2
	/162	664	19	6	199	305	349	+10.9	+3.4	2.0	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Stevenson (OGILVIE)	22	30→41	40→53	30→34	60	172/293/307	135	264	13	8	37%	13%	71	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	39	46→45	42→45	52	198/293/324	126	277	14	6	32%	12%	75	-0.0	179/260/273	94	259	9	6	32%	9%	47	-1.9	150/237/225	75	215	8	4	32%	9%	24	-1.2
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	43	40→50	42→45	47	204/282/302	97	297	7	6	32%	10%	63	-0.8	179/241/260	81	267	8	5	34%	7%	35	-2.8	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
✕Johnny Monell 2008 · A	22	43→44	44→50	44→45	48	213/288/328	115	279	11	8	27%	9%	73	-0.1	232/294/362	130	291	12	8	23%	7%	84	+0.6	211/282/355	144	277	15	6	28%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Jose Lobatón 2007 · A	22	44	42→50	42→30	47	210/289/319	109	299	10	4	31%	9%	71	-0.3	219/282/346	127	299	13	3	29%	8%	75	-0.0	237/323/373	135	298	13	0	23%	11%	96	+0.7
✕Nick Weglarz 2010 · AA	22	43→47	50→55	43→45	52	219/309/374	155	273	17	5	26%	10%	94	+1.3	217/305/375	158	289	17	5	29%	10%	92	+1.2	201/293/358	157	285	18	3	34%	10%	82	+0.2
✕Ryan Costello 2019 · A	23	42→39	50	42→30	47	216/285/369	154	277	17	4	28%	9%	82	+0.5	201/276/334	133	299	14	4	35%	9%	69	-0.4	168/256/295	127	261	14	0	39%	10%	50	-1.2
✕Travis Scott 2008 · A	23	44	50→55	43→40	44	225/284/373	148	289	18	3	28%	7%	82	+0.5	223/277/378	155	288	17	5	28%	7%	81	+0.4	217/270/376	158	275	18	3	27%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Zack Collins 2018 · AA	23	35→43	46→50	41→40	45	175/265/301	125	286	14	2	41%	11%	57	-1.2	193/291/339	146	301	16	3	37%	12%	78	+0.2	188/297/338	150	281	16	2	36%	13%	78	+0.2
✕John Whittleman 2009 · AA	22	42→43	43→50	39→45	50	207/286/324	116	284	10	3	29%	10%	71	-0.3	192/271/317	125	262	13	3	30%	10%	63	-0.8	171/259/324	153	234	18	1	34%	11%	58	-0.8
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→39	47→50	43→30	48	212/291/346	133	289	14	4	30%	9%	79	+0.3	204/289/349	145	281	18	3	32%	10%	79	+0.3	185/276/320	135	253	18	0	33%	10%	64	-0.4
✕Omar Martinez 2023 · A	22	41→38	43→45	42→40	46	200/285/309	109	287	11	5	32%	9%	67	-0.5	192/271/311	119	296	14	5	37%	9%	62	-0.9	177/257/291	114	276	14	3	39%	9%	48	-1.3
●Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	41→51	50→55	44→50	53	208/315/362	154	287	18	6	32%	12%	94	+1.3	214/303/389	175	277	22	11	29%	11%	95	+1.4	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→47	48→55	44→50	42	222/291/369	146	290	16	5	28%	6%	85	+0.7	222/279/379	157	280	19	8	27%	5%	82	+0.5	216/269/391	176	255	23	12	26%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2017 · A	21	42	46→55	45	43	208/273/344	136	295	12	8	32%	8%	70	-0.3	203/271/341	138	294	15	8	34%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	43	47→55	44→40	40	216/276/351	135	296	16	5	32%	6%	74	-0.1	215/261/351	136	287	16	3	30%	5%	67	-0.5	218/304/386	168	282	22	0	30%	10%	93	+0.6
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	44→51	48→50	37→45	54	224/307/363	140	262	17	3	22%	10%	90	+1.0	226/294/350	124	277	12	5	22%	8%	81	+0.4	227/302/380	153	255	18	0	19%	8%	92	+0.6
✕George Valera 2023 · AAA	22	41→39	52→50	44→45	48	212/297/379	167	288	20	6	33%	10%	90	+1.0	210/286/357	147	298	17	6	33%	9%	79	+0.3	202/278/340	138	285	17	4	33%	9%	70	-0.2
●Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→45	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	91	+1.1	228/295/390	162	293	20	2	28%	8%	92	+1.2	224/293/375	150	280	19	1	26%	8%	86	+0.7
✕Zach Fisher 2014 · A	22	43	43→50	43→30	45	214/269/331	117	256	10	3	21%	6%	65	-0.7	231/281/356	125	295	12	4	25%	6%	76	+0.1	248/294/394	147	309	16	0	25%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	40→39	42→50	46→55	56	195/303/310	115	269	9	11	28%	13%	76	+0.0	199/299/319	120	254	11	20	24%	12%	76	+0.0	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6