Luke Stevenson — OGILVIE

Luke StevensonC Everett AquaSox

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A+ K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION474 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP271

ISO158

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED34

scouting grade only

DEFENSE56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.4M
Totals		$22M		$34M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Modesto Nuts	—	100	75	21	4	1	1	23	19	2	1	0	280	460	400	860	120	364	19	23	399	156	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	100	82	19	3	1	1	16	24	2	1	0	232	370	329	699	98	320	24	16	325	106	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	100	82	19	3	1	1	16	24	2	1	0	232	370	329	699	98	316	24	16	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	100	75	21	4	1	1	23	19	2	1	0	280	460	400	860	120	364	19	23	399	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	100	82	19	3	1	1	16	24	2	1	0	232	370	329	699	98	320	24	16	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	100	82	19	3	1	1	16	24	2	1	0	232	370	329	699	98	320	24	16	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	SEA	—	474	403	68	17	0	17	62	195	5	8	4	169	287	337	625	169	262	41	13	276	73	-15	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	SEA	—	474	367	89	24	0	22	98	139	5	8	4	243	409	488	896	245	319	29	21	396	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	SEA	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		274	33	11	293	84	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	SEA	—	483	411	69	17	0	17	63	198	5	8	4	168	286	333	619	165	260	41	13	276	73	-15	+0	-0	+9	+10	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	43%	341	292	56	12	1	12	43	123	3	4	2	192	302	363	665	171	276	36	13	298	88	-5	+0	-0	+6	+7	0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	58%	520	446	88	19	1	18	64	183	5	6	2	197	305	365	670	168	280	35	12	303	91	-5	+0	-0	+9	+11	1.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	65%	520	446	90	19	1	19	64	179	5	6	2	202	309	377	685	175	281	34	12	306	93	-4	+0	-0	+9	+11	1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	68%	520	446	91	19	1	19	64	178	5	6	2	204	311	379	690	175	281	34	12	307	94	-4	+0	-0	+9	+11	1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	68%	520	446	90	19	1	19	64	178	5	5	2	202	309	377	685	175	281	34	12	307	94	-4	+0	-0	+9	+11	1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	68%	520	445	89	19	1	18	65	179	5	5	2	200	309	369	677	169	280	34	12	306	93	-4	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	66%	520	445	88	18	1	18	65	180	5	5	2	198	307	364	671	166	279	35	12	304	92	-5	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	66%	520	445	87	18	1	18	65	181	5	5	2	196	305	362	667	166	277	35	12	301	90	-6	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	SEA	65%	412	354	69	14	1	14	51	145	4	4	1	195	303	359	662	164	274	35	12	297	87	-6	+0	-3	+7	+9	0.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	SEA	65%	383	329	62	13	1	12	48	136	3	3	1	188	297	343	641	155	270	36	13	292	84	-7	+0	-4	+7	+8	0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	SEA	65%	343	294	54	11	0	11	43	124	3	3	1	184	294	333	627	150	265	36	13	285	79	-9	+0	-4	+6	+7	0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	SEA	60%	293	253	45	9	0	9	36	107	2	2	1	178	285	320	605	142	258	37	12	277	73	-9	+0	-5	+5	+6	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	43%	148	127	24	5	0	5	19	54	1	2	1	189	299	346	646	157	273	36	13	288	88	-2	+0	-0	+3	+3	0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	58%	302	259	51	11	1	10	37	106	3	3	1	197	304	363	667	166	277	35	12	293	91	-3	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	65%	337	290	58	12	1	12	41	116	3	4	1	200	305	372	678	172	278	34	12	296	93	-3	+0	-0	+6	+7	1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	68%	354	305	61	13	1	12	43	121	3	4	2	200	305	367	672	167	278	34	12	297	94	-3	+0	-0	+6	+8	1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	68%	354	304	61	13	1	12	44	121	3	4	2	201	308	368	676	168	278	34	12	297	94	-3	+0	-0	+6	+8	1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	68%	354	304	60	12	1	12	44	122	3	4	1	197	305	362	667	164	277	34	12	296	93	-3	+0	-0	+6	+8	1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	66%	345	296	59	12	1	12	43	119	3	3	1	199	307	368	675	169	276	34	12	294	92	-3	+0	-1	+6	+7	1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	66%	341	292	57	12	1	11	43	119	3	3	1	195	305	356	661	161	274	35	13	291	90	-4	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	SEA	65%	268	231	44	9	0	9	33	94	2	2	1	190	297	346	643	156	271	35	12	288	87	-4	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	SEA	65%	248	213	39	8	0	8	31	88	2	2	1	183	293	333	626	150	267	35	12	282	84	-5	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.3
2037	33	MLB CTX	SEA	65%	221	190	35	7	0	7	27	80	2	2	1	184	292	332	624	147	262	36	12	276	79	-5	+0	-3	+4	+5	0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	SEA	60%	176	151	26	5	0	5	22	65	1	1	1	172	282	305	586	132	256	37	12	268	73	-6	-0	-3	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3448	2962	575	119	7	115	427	1205	29	34	14	194	302	356	657	161	277	35	12	290	90	-43	+1	-13	+62	+75	8.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	108	22	1	22	80	227	5	6	3	194	300	355	655	161	275	35	12	290	90	-8	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5521	4731	929	193	11	188	689	1920	52	55	20	196	305	361	666	165	279	35	12	301	90	-69	+3	-20	+97	+117	13.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	557	109	23	1	22	81	226	6	6	2	196	304	359	663	163	278	35	12	301	90	-8	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.2	3,448	119	34	197	301	363	+62	+20	11.3	10.1
/162	664	23	7	+11.9	+3.8	2.2	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Stevenson (OGILVIE)	22	30→41	40→53	30→34	60	181/295/343	162	274	6	3	38%	13%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Collins 2018 · AA	23	36→42	48→50	41→40	47	183/275/321	138	287	16	2	39%	11%	70	-0.8	198/295/339	141	302	15	3	36%	12%	82	-0.0	193/300/335	143	284	15	2	34%	13%	81	-0.0
✕Nathan Hickey 2023 · A	23	43→39	54→50	43→40	50	221/318/403	183	306	22	3	33%	11%	105	+1.7	199/280/347	148	284	17	4	34%	9%	78	-0.3	183/261/317	134	259	15	3	34%	9%	62	-1.1
✕Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	41→51	50→55	44→50	52	209/313/362	153	287	18	6	32%	12%	94	+0.9	209/299/374	165	271	20	11	29%	10%	91	+0.7	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	39	45	42→45	51	196/292/318	122	278	13	6	32%	12%	76	-0.4	179/261/272	93	255	9	6	31%	9%	53	-2.1	154/237/226	72	219	7	4	31%	9%	32	-1.3
✕Travis Scott 2008 · A	23	44	50→55	43→40	44	225/284/373	148	289	18	3	28%	7%	84	+0.2	224/278/380	156	289	18	5	28%	7%	84	+0.1	218/272/379	160	276	18	3	27%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→46	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	92	+0.7	231/296/389	158	293	19	2	27%	7%	93	+0.8	227/294/372	145	279	18	1	25%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Ryan Costello 2019 · A	23	41→39	50	42→30	47	214/284/368	154	274	17	4	28%	9%	84	+0.1	201/278/335	134	291	14	4	33%	9%	74	-0.6	169/258/297	128	251	15	0	37%	11%	56	-1.3
✕Nick Weglarz 2010 · AA	22	43→47	49→50	43→45	52	218/308/366	148	271	16	5	25%	10%	93	+0.8	216/304/360	144	286	15	5	28%	10%	89	+0.5	203/293/344	141	285	15	3	32%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	106	+1.8	229/303/387	158	305	17	7	29%	8%	95	+1.0	228/299/376	148	295	16	7	27%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Tom Murphy 2014 · AA	23	41→38	50→65	42→45	39	211/275/365	155	299	17	5	34%	6%	80	-0.2	209/263/374	165	291	20	5	34%	6%	78	-0.3	247/319/462	215	314	30	2	30%	9%	117	+1.1
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	42→43	48→55	44→40	40	214/273/349	135	292	16	5	32%	6%	75	-0.5	216/262/352	136	287	16	3	30%	5%	72	-0.7	215/301/376	160	280	21	0	29%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Omar Martinez 2023 · A	22	42→38	44→45	42→40	47	204/290/318	114	288	12	5	31%	9%	75	-0.5	196/278/320	124	295	14	5	35%	10%	71	-0.8	181/265/299	118	275	15	3	37%	10%	59	-1.2
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→40	47→50	43→30	48	216/294/353	138	287	15	4	29%	9%	84	+0.2	203/288/334	131	275	15	3	30%	10%	78	-0.3	186/276/303	117	251	14	0	30%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Darrien Miller 2023 · A	22	38→41	47→45	50→45	48	196/307/325	129	265	16	7	30%	10%	84	+0.2	187/296/284	97	258	8	5	29%	10%	71	-0.8	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
●Travis Ishikawa 2006 · A	22	45→49	53→55	41→45	45	227/302/408	181	315	21	3	33%	9%	99	+1.3	217/278/374	157	300	17	3	32%	7%	83	+0.1	256/319/421	164	308	18	6	22%	8%	105	+1.0
●Ryan McMahon 2016 · A	21	46→56	50→55	39→45	38	226/281/386	160	329	16	5	35%	6%	86	+0.3	237/289/380	143	335	13	8	31%	6%	87	+0.4	230/313/394	163	297	19	6	28%	10%	99	+1.3
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	41→51	47→50	40→50	47	212/289/339	127	271	16	4	28%	9%	79	-0.2	238/325/362	124	309	12	10	25%	10%	97	+1.1	268/364/419	151	313	19	10	19%	10%	122	+2.5
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→46	48→50	44→50	42	221/289/365	144	293	15	5	29%	6%	85	+0.2	216/274/354	138	278	15	8	27%	5%	76	-0.4	209/263/347	138	261	16	9	26%	5%	69	-0.7
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	39→49	53→50	38→40	47	207/302/378	171	280	22	2	33%	10%	93	+0.8	222/284/365	143	292	17	3	29%	7%	83	+0.1	224/279/359	135	291	15	2	27%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Johnny Monell 2008 · A	22	43→44	44→50	44→45	48	213/288/328	115	279	11	8	27%	9%	76	-0.4	232/294/362	130	290	12	8	23%	7%	85	+0.2	226/287/350	124	285	13	8	24%	7%	78	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps