Luke Stevenson

C Everett AquaSox

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A+ K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#124ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AModesto Nuts	100	.280/.460/.400	1	1	107	—	.232/.370/.329
2026	22	A+SEA	474	.243/.409/.488	22	8	87	—	.180/.313/.355
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBSEA	1	.195/.316/.356	0	0	95	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	24	MLBSEA	178	.199/.318/.363	6	2	97	0.7
2029PROJ62% MLB	25	MLBSEA	271	.202/.319/.367	9	3	98	1.2

Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%95

Chase%91

ISO88

wOBA83

wRC+81

Whiff%26

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 17, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 66%

CompsZack Collins (age 23) · Nathan Hickey (age 23) · Sergio Pedroza (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .316 / .356

PA1

HR0

K%35

BB%14

BABIP284

ISO169

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$35M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.4	$8M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+1.3	$7M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$1M
Totals		$21M		$41M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Modesto Nuts	—	100	75	21	4	1	1	23	19	2	1	0	280	460	400	860	120	364	19	23	399	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	474	367	89	24	0	22	98	139	5	8	4	243	409	488	896	245	319	29	21	396	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	100	82	19	3	1	1	16	25	2	1	0	232	370	329	699	98	330	25	16	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	474	394	71	18	0	17	71	188	5	8	4	180	313	355	668	175	270	40	15	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	100	82	19	3	1	1	16	25	2	1	0	232	370	329	699	98	321	25	16	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	100	75	21	4	1	1	23	19	2	1	0	280	460	400	860	120	364	19	23	399	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	474	394	71	18	0	17	71	188	5	8	4	180	313	355	668	175	280	40	15	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	—	474	367	89	24	0	22	98	139	5	8	4	243	409	488	896	245	319	29	21	396	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	100	82	19	3	1	1	16	25	2	1	0	232	370	329	699	98	330	25	16	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	474	395	71	18	0	17	71	188	5	8	4	180	313	354	667	175	270	40	15	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	100	82	19	3	1	1	16	25	2	1	0	232	370	329	699	98	330	25	16	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	474	395	71	18	0	17	71	188	5	8	4	180	313	354	667	175	270	40	15	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	512	431	85	17	2	17	71	182	5	7	2	197	318	362	680	165	287	36	14	309	95	-3	+1	+1	+9	+11	0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	195	316	356	672	161	284	0	0	306	95	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	42%	419	354	71	14	1	14	58	145	4	5	2	201	320	369	689	168	288	35	14	312	97	-1	+0	+1	+7	+9	1.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	62%	436	370	75	15	1	15	59	148	4	5	2	204	321	373	694	169	288	34	14	314	98	-1	+0	+2	+8	+9	1.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	71%	441	375	77	15	1	15	59	147	4	5	2	206	321	375	695	169	288	33	13	314	99	-1	+0	+2	+8	+10	1.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	74%	440	375	77	15	1	15	58	145	4	4	2	207	320	374	693	167	287	33	13	313	98	-1	+0	+2	+8	+10	1.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	75%	439	376	77	15	1	14	56	143	4	4	2	207	318	371	688	164	286	33	13	311	97	-2	+0	+1	+8	+10	1.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	74%	430	368	75	15	1	14	55	142	4	3	2	204	315	364	679	160	285	33	13	307	94	-3	-0	+0	+8	+9	1.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	79%	417	357	72	14	1	13	53	139	4	3	2	201	311	356	667	154	282	33	13	302	91	-5	-0	-0	+7	+9	1.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	SEA	76%	382	328	65	13	1	11	48	129	3	3	2	197	306	345	652	148	278	34	13	297	87	-6	-0	-1	+7	+8	0.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	SEA	74%	345	296	57	11	1	10	43	118	3	1	7	191	300	332	632	141	273	34	12	289	82	-8	-3	-2	+6	+7	0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	42%	178	150	31	6	1	6	24	62	2	2	1	199	318	363	681	164	285	35	13	309	97	-1	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	62%	271	229	46	9	1	9	37	92	3	3	1	202	319	367	686	165	285	34	14	311	98	-1	+0	+1	+5	+6	1.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	71%	314	266	54	11	1	10	42	105	3	3	1	204	319	369	687	165	285	33	13	311	99	-0	+0	+1	+6	+7	1.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	74%	323	275	57	11	1	11	42	107	3	3	1	205	318	368	685	163	285	33	13	310	98	-1	+0	+1	+6	+7	1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	75%	328	280	58	11	1	11	42	107	3	3	1	205	316	365	680	160	284	33	13	308	97	-1	+0	+1	+6	+7	1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	74%	316	269	55	11	1	10	41	104	3	2	1	202	313	358	671	156	282	33	13	304	94	-2	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	79%	331	283	57	11	1	10	42	110	3	2	2	199	309	350	659	151	279	33	13	300	91	-4	-0	-0	+6	+7	0.9
2035	31	MLB CTX	SEA	76%	291	250	49	9	1	9	37	98	2	2	2	195	304	340	644	145	276	34	13	294	87	-5	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	SEA	74%	257	221	42	8	1	7	32	88	2	1	5	189	298	327	625	138	271	34	12	286	82	-6	-2	-2	+5	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2609	2223	449	87	9	83	339	873	24	21	15	202	314	361	675	159	286	33	13	304	94	-20	-2	+3	+47	+57	8.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	554	112	22	2	21	84	217	6	5	4	202	313	363	676	161	285	33	13	304	94	-5	-0	+1	+12	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4533	3852	771	155	11	146	605	1543	43	45	28	200	315	360	675	160	286	34	13	307	94	-28	-2	+4	+71	+86	13.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	552	111	22	2	21	87	221	6	6	4	201	316	362	678	161	288	34	13	307	94	-5	-0	+1	+12	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 474 PAwOBA .389 → .297 (−92)K% 29.3% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.32%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	39.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.68%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	14.86%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	0.86%
Singles /BIP	18.86%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.966	×1.012	16.78%
Doubles /BIP	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.966	×1.012	8.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.966	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.65%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.012	8.10%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .389 → .297; ISO .245 → .190; BABIP .319 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 100 PAwOBA .391 → .327 (−63)K% 19.0% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.00%	÷1.045	×1.360	—	—	24.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.00%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×1.015	16.30%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.58%
Singles /BIP	26.79%	÷0.989	×0.920	×0.999	×1.015	25.25%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.067	×0.830	×0.999	×1.015	5.63%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷1.097	×0.910	×0.999	×1.015	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	1.79%	÷0.759	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.91%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 52, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 119, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .391 → .327; ISO .120 → .110; BABIP .364 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Charles Johnson'94-'05 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,385 PA	6.6	4,385	167	6	235*	316*	421*	+78	+0	21.1	19.6
/162	664	25	1	+11.8	+0.0	3.2	pk7: 18
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Rick Wilkins'91-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,435 PA	3.7	2,435	81	9	235*	324*	416*	+40	+0	12.4	12.7
/162	664	22	2	+11.0	+0.1	3.4	pk7: 13
#5Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	2.8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
/162	664	25	0	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.9	2,610	84	22	203	312	364	+47	+15	9.6	9.0
/162	664	21	6	+11.9	+3.8	2.4	pk7: 8
#6Randy Hundley'64-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,797 PA	5.7	3,797	82	12	236*	295*	383*	+68	+0	8.0	8.7
/162	664	14	2	+11.8	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Stevenson (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	195/315/358	163	287	7	3	35%	14%	95	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Collins 2018 · AA	23	37→42	48→50	41→40	47	185/278/325	140	290	16	2	39%	11%	72	-0.7	204/302/356	152	310	17	3	36%	12%	88	+0.4	199/306/353	154	293	17	2	34%	13%	89	+0.4
✕Nathan Hickey 2023 · A	23	43→40	54→50	43→40	51	219/317/402	183	298	22	3	32%	12%	104	+1.6	202/283/351	149	288	17	4	34%	10%	80	-0.2	186/266/323	137	264	16	3	34%	9%	65	-1.0
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→46	56→60	38→45	48	221/315/416	195	294	24	3	32%	10%	107	+1.8	229/303/389	160	305	18	7	29%	8%	96	+1.0	227/297/375	148	293	16	7	27%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	40	45	42→45	52	200/295/324	124	280	13	6	32%	12%	78	-0.3	181/261/276	95	256	9	6	31%	9%	54	-2.0	150/230/223	73	210	7	4	31%	8%	29	-1.4
✕Dalton Rushing 2024 · A	23	45→42	52→55	48→30	54	226/343/400	175	303	19	4	30%	12%	114	+2.3	233/320/402	169	303	21	3	28%	9%	105	+1.7	235/318/410	176	300	23	1	28%	9%	106	+1.0
✕Trevor Hauver 2023 · AA	24	39→49	49→50	46→40	52	197/302/348	151	285	17	3	34%	12%	86	+0.3	215/302/354	139	314	14	3	33%	10%	87	+0.4	220/306/357	138	316	13	2	32%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Travis Scott 2008 · A	23	44	50→55	43→40	44	227/287/376	149	291	18	3	28%	7%	86	+0.3	223/277/378	155	288	18	5	28%	7%	83	+0.1	216/269/375	159	274	18	3	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
●Tom Murphy 2014 · AA	23	42→38	50→65	42→45	39	211/276/367	156	300	17	5	34%	6%	81	-0.1	212/267/380	168	296	20	5	34%	6%	80	-0.1	247/319/462	214	314	30	2	30%	9%	119	+1.2
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	38→48	51→50	38→40	46	201/294/355	155	278	19	2	33%	10%	86	+0.3	220/281/359	139	288	16	3	28%	7%	80	-0.1	222/277/356	134	285	15	2	27%	6%	76	-0.3
●Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	39→49	53→55	47→50	53	204/313/377	173	277	21	10	32%	12%	97	+1.1	230/312/390	160	287	19	10	25%	10%	99	+1.3	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Jared Greenwood 2007 · A	24	39	50→55	43→45	42	206/271/353	147	290	19	7	35%	8%	75	-0.5	204/266/329	125	321	14	6	38%	7%	68	-1.0	169/232/282	113	281	12	0	42%	7%	41	-1.0
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→47	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	273	20	4	27%	8%	95	+0.9	222/285/357	135	279	14	3	25%	8%	81	-0.1	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8
✕Ian Rice 2018 · AA	24	39→40	51→50	41→30	50	208/291/361	154	264	19	3	29%	10%	85	+0.2	201/283/316	115	282	12	3	31%	9%	72	-0.7	183/271/276	93	265	9	1	32%	9%	58	-0.9
✕George Valera 2023 · AAA	22	44→43	52→50	44→45	49	222/309/386	165	300	20	6	31%	10%	97	+1.1	215/293/359	144	302	17	6	32%	10%	85	+0.2	222/290/363	141	290	16	5	28%	8%	82	+0.0
●Ryan Lavarnway 2011 · AA	23	46	51→55	44→30	44	232/301/393	161	302	19	2	29%	8%	96	+1.0	237/301/389	152	290	18	2	24%	7%	95	+0.9	237/299/380	143	282	17	1	22%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Reese Havens 2011 · AA	24	44→40	51→45	40	47	226/302/384	157	284	19	4	27%	8%	94	+0.9	217/290/338	121	306	12	4	31%	9%	79	-0.2	202/280/307	105	288	10	3	31%	9%	65	-0.5
✕Robert Kral 2013 · AAA	24	49→41	45→55	43→40	56	235/331/363	129	304	12	5	25%	12%	100	+1.3	206/298/347	141	257	15	4	25%	11%	84	+0.2	189/290/335	146	224	17	2	24%	12%	77	-0.2
✕Nick Weglarz 2010 · AA	22	45→48	49→50	43→45	53	225/318/378	152	281	17	5	25%	11%	99	+1.2	223/313/373	150	295	15	5	28%	10%	96	+1.0	210/302/356	146	295	15	3	32%	10%	86	+0.2
✕Addison Barger 2023 · AAA	23	45→49	53→55	46→45	39	228/286/397	168	324	21	7	35%	6%	91	+0.7	226/292/382	156	293	18	7	28%	8%	90	+0.6	222/291/386	164	273	18	6	25%	8%	89	+0.4

Luke Stevenson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps