Ethan Anderson

C Chesapeake Baysox
Age 23 S/R 6'1" / 215 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP45OGV rank#106ETA2028MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420A+/A2 orgs83.288/.366/.4381677—.237/.292/.368
202521AA/A+/INTL3 orgs446.258/.353/.35851771—.212/.280/.279
202622AAA/AA/A+BAL397.288/.371/.544247111—.254/.321/.454
2027PROJMLE23MLBBAL4.243/.309/.40000950.0
2028PROJ43% MLB24MLBBAL157.245/.312/.40653980.6
2029PROJ62% MLB25MLBBAL252.246/.314/.40994991.1
Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$8M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
ISO89
Chase%84
wOBA83
wRC+79
K%76
Whiff%68
Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 24, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 62%
CompsLogan O'Hoppe (age 23) · Juan Brito (age 22) · Adley Rutschman (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†95
AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .309 / .400
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%8
BABIP283
ISO147
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
0.00.91.80.00.61.11.31.31.21.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.6$2M+$2M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.1$8M+$7M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.3$8M+$8M
2031Arb-1$4M+1.3$8M+$5M
2032Arb-2$6M+1.2$7M+$3M
2033Arb-3$8M+1.0$5M+$0.9M
Totals $21M $37M +$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202420 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 2017 6100 360 32 353450412862 59545 3015 395 80 — — — — — —
202420 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 6356 15321 690 30 268339446785 179298 1410 341 76 — — — — — —
202521 AAChesapeake Baysox — 8065 14101 12131 00 215346277623 62245 1615 292 72 — — — — — —
202521 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 283245 631313 31511 153 257341355696 98308 1811 313 50 — — — — — —
202521 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 8370 21701 12200 22 300402443845 143400 2414 376 141 — — — — — —
202622 AAANorfolk Tides — 2118 7202 330 10 3894768331.310 444385 1414 549 186 — — — — — —
202622 AAChesapeake Baysox — 351303 8212021 41693 61 271360518878 248286 2012 383 104 — — — — — —
202622 A+Frederick Keys — 2523 10201 140 00 4354406521.092 217500 164 467 144 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202420 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 2018 5100 280 32 278350333683 56462 4010 287 80 — — — — — —
202420 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 6358 13221 4120 30 224274379654 155259 196 280 76 — — — — — —
202521 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 8068 16101 9151 00 235333294627 59262 1911 275 72 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 283258 531012 20661 153 205265275540 70256 237 242 50 — — — — — —
202622 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 2119 6201 240 10 316381579960 263345 1910 443 186 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 351318 7711017 29843 61 242311437749 195276 248 322 104 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 2524 9201 150 00 375400583983 208421 204 381 144 — — — — — —
202420 A MLE2 teams — 8376 18321 6200 62 237293368661 132304 247 282 77 — — — — — —
202420 A RAW2 teams — 8373 21421 9150 62 288366438804 151345 1811 354 77 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE3 teams — 446402 841314 351002 175 209276276552 67262 228 249 55 — — — — — —
202521 A+ RAW3 teams — 446380 982115 55842 175 258353358711 100312 1912 321 55 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLE3 teams — 397361 9214019 32933 71 255321452772 197293 238 332 111 — — — — — —
202622 AA RAW3 teams — 397344 9916024 45763 71 288371544915 256307 1911 397 111 — — — — — —
202420 A MLE2 teams — 8377 18321 6200 62 234293364656 130308 247 282 77 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE3 teams — 446406 841314 351002 175 207276273549 67257 228 249 55 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLE3 teams — 397359 9214019 32933 71 256321454775 198289 238 332 111 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 A MLE2 teams — 8377 18321 6200 62 234293364656 130308 247 282 77 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLE3 teams — 446406 841314 351002 175 207276273549 67257 228 249 55 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLE3 teams — 397359 9214019 32933 71 256321454775 198289 238 332 111 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLEBAL 2% 500453 10818116 401103 92 239305390695 151278 228 309 95 -3 +1 -0 +9 +11 0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXBAL 2% 44 1000 010 00 243309400709 157283 250 315 95 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLEBAL 43% 364329 7913112 30792 61 241309396704 155280 228 313 98 -1 +1 +0 +7 +8 1.5
202925 MLB MLEBAL 62% 404364 8815113 34883 61 242310399709 157280 228 315 99 -0 +1 +0 +7 +9 1.7
203026 MLB MLEBAL 71% 425384 9316114 35933 61 242311399710 157281 228 315 100 -0 +1 +0 +8 +9 1.8
203127 MLB MLEBAL 74% 431389 9416114 36953 61 241310397707 156281 228 314 99 -1 +1 +0 +8 +9 1.8
203228 MLB MLEBAL 75% 430388 9316114 36953 51 239309393701 153280 228 312 97 -1 +1 -0 +8 +9 1.6
203329 MLB MLEBAL 74% 419378 8915113 35943 41 237306386692 149279 228 308 95 -3 +0 -1 +7 +9 1.4
203430 MLB MLEBAL 73% 407368 8514112 34932 31 234302378680 144277 238 304 92 -4 +0 -2 +7 +9 1.1
203531 MLB MLEBAL 72% 374338 7813111 31872 22 230297368665 139274 238 297 87 -6 -0 -3 +7 +8 0.6
203632 MLB MLEBAL 72% 336304 671109 27792 23 224291355646 131270 248 290 82 -7 -1 -3 +6 +7 0.2
203733 MLB MLEBAL 78% 284259 56907 22691 18 218283340623 122265 248 280 76 -8 -3 -4 +5 +6 -0.4
202824 MLB CTXBAL 43% 157142 34605 13341 31 245312406719 161284 228 319 98 -0 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.6
202925 MLB CTXBAL 62% 252227 56919 21552 41 246314409723 163285 228 321 99 -0 +0 +0 +4 +5 1.1
203026 MLB CTXBAL 71% 303273 6811111 25662 41 246315409724 163285 228 321 100 -0 +0 +0 +5 +7 1.3
203127 MLB CTXBAL 74% 317285 7012111 27702 41 245314407721 162285 229 320 99 -0 +0 +0 +6 +7 1.3
203228 MLB CTXBAL 75% 321289 7112111 27712 41 244313403715 159285 228 318 97 -1 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.2
203329 MLB CTXBAL 74% 308277 6711110 26692 31 241310396706 155283 228 314 95 -2 +0 -1 +6 +7 1.0
203430 MLB CTXBAL 73% 296268 641119 24672 21 238306388694 150281 238 309 92 -3 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.8
203531 MLB CTXBAL 72% 271246 571008 22631 12 234301377678 144278 238 303 87 -4 -1 -2 +5 +6 0.4
203632 MLB CTXBAL 72% 242220 49807 19571 22 228294364659 136274 248 295 82 -5 -0 -2 +4 +5 0.2
203733 MLB CTXBAL 78% 223202 44706 18541 16 221287349635 127269 248 285 76 -6 -2 -3 +4 +5 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 26902429 58097687 22260616 2817 239307391698 152282 238 311 91 -23 -1 -9 +48 +58 7.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650587 13923121 541464 74 237305387692 150279 228 311 91 -5 -0 -2 +12 +14 1.8
Career— MLE — 50104530 106117511150 410113130 7529 234302377679 143278 238 303 91 -32 +1 -12 +73 +88 12.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650588 13723119 531474 104 233301372674 139277 238 303 91 -5 +0 -2 +12 +14 1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 351 PAwOBA .372 → .322 (−50)K% 19.7% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.66%÷1.000×1.220——23.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.68%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0278.40%
HBP% /PA0.85%—×0.850—×1.0270.75%
Singles /BIP20.94%÷1.000×0.970×1.010×1.02721.08%
Doubles /BIP5.13%÷1.000×0.860×1.010×1.0274.58%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×1.010×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP8.97%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0277.19%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .372 → .322; ISO .248 → .203; BABIP .286 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 25 PAwOBA .454 → .381 (−72)K% 16.0% → 21.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.00%÷1.000×1.310——20.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.00%÷1.000×0.600—×0.9982.40%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP36.84%÷1.000×0.870—×0.99831.99%
Doubles /BIP10.53%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9988.19%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850—×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷1.000×0.880—×0.9984.62%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .454 → .381; ISO .217 → .184; BABIP .500 → .421. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 21 PAwOBA .534 → .443 (−90)K% 14.3% → 17.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.29%÷1.000×1.200——17.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.000×0.690—×1.05010.35%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.930—×1.05019.53%
Doubles /BIP13.33%÷1.000×0.830—×1.05011.62%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP13.33%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0509.80%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .534 → .443; ISO .444 → .347; BABIP .385 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 283 PAwOBA .310 → .242 (−67)K% 18.0% → 23.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.02%÷1.013×1.310——23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.95%÷0.944×0.600—×1.0127.05%
HBP% /PA0.35%—×0.770—×1.0120.28%
Singles /BIP23.71%÷0.990×0.870×0.968×1.01220.40%
Doubles /BIP6.70%÷1.010×0.780×0.968×1.0125.07%
Triples /BIP0.52%÷1.091×0.850×0.968×1.0120.39%
Home runs /BIP1.55%÷1.229×0.880—×1.0121.12%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .310 → .242; ISO .098 → .074; BABIP .308 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 80 PAwOBA .292 → .275 (−17)K% 16.2% → 19.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.25%÷1.044×1.220——19.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.00%÷0.987×0.700—×1.04211.09%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.850—×1.0421.11%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.957×0.970×1.024×1.04224.95%
Doubles /BIP1.92%÷0.970×0.860×1.024×1.0421.82%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950×1.024×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP1.92%÷1.248×0.780—×1.0421.25%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .292 → .275; ISO .062 → .047; BABIP .245 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 63 PAwOBA .338 → .280 (−57)K% 14.3% → 18.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.29%÷1.035×1.360——18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.52%÷0.997×0.690—×1.0156.69%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0150.00%
Singles /BIP19.15%÷0.988×0.920×0.973×1.01517.59%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷1.216×0.830×0.973×1.0154.30%
Triples /BIP4.26%÷0.943×0.910×0.973×1.0154.05%
Home runs /BIP2.13%÷0.952×0.800—×1.0151.81%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .338 → .280; ISO .179 → .150; BABIP .298 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 20 PAwOBA .386 → .287 (−99)K% 30.0% → 39.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.00%÷0.993×1.310——39.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.00%÷0.947×0.600—×1.0279.76%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP45.45%÷1.048×0.870—×1.02738.75%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷0.980×0.780—×1.0277.43%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.026×0.880—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .386 → .287; ISO .059 → .044; BABIP .545 → .462. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .