Ethan Anderson — OGILVIE

Ethan AndersonC Chesapeake Baysox

Age 22 S/R 6'1" / 215 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION291 act + 194 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .302 / .374

PA194

HR6

K%24

BB%9

BABIP279

ISO144

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$16M	+$15M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$16M	+$15M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$15M	+$15M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.6	$14M	+$11M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+2.5	$13M	+$8M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+2.2	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$27M		$84M	+$70M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	83	76	17	2	2	1	6	20	0	6	2	224	280	342	623	118	286	24	7	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	83	73	21	4	2	1	9	15	0	6	2	288	366	438	804	151	345	18	11	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	3 teams	—	446	398	85	14	1	3	39	101	2	17	5	214	287	276	563	63	272	23	9	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	3 teams	—	446	380	98	21	1	5	55	84	2	17	5	258	353	358	711	100	312	19	12	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AA	BAL	—	291	262	62	10	0	16	26	75	2	5	1	237	310	458	768	221	269	26	9	323	105	+2	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.6
YTD	22	AA	BAL	—	291	248	67	11	0	17	37	58	2	5	1	270	366	520	886	250	289	20	13	385	153	+17	+1	+0	+5	+8	3.2
ROS	22	AA	BAL	2%	194	174	40	7	0	6	17	47	1	4	1	230	302	374	676	144	276	24	9	305	92	-2	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.8
ROS	22	MLB	BAL	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		281	25	0	306	92	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	AA	BAL	—	295	266	63	10	0	16	26	76	2	5	1	237	310	455	764	218	270	26	9	323	105	+2	+1	-0	+5	+8	1.6
TOT	22	AA	BAL	—	485	436	102	17	0	22	43	122	3	9	2	234	307	424	731	190	273	25	9	316	100	-0	+1	-0	+9	+14	2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	BAL	49%	485	436	101	17	1	16	43	117	3	9	2	232	305	385	690	154	278	24	9	308	94	-3	+1	-0	+9	+14	2.0
2028	24	MLB	BAL	65%	498	448	106	18	1	17	44	118	3	9	2	237	309	395	704	158	280	24	9	313	98	-1	+1	-0	+9	+14	2.3
2029	25	MLB	BAL	73%	512	457	109	18	1	18	46	120	4	9	2	239	314	400	714	162	281	23	9	316	100	-0	+1	-0	+9	+15	2.5
2030	26	MLB	BAL	76%	520	464	111	19	1	18	47	121	4	9	2	239	315	401	715	162	281	23	9	317	101	+1	+1	-0	+9	+15	2.6
2031	27	MLB	BAL	76%	520	463	110	19	1	18	48	122	4	9	2	238	315	400	714	162	281	23	9	317	101	+1	+1	-0	+9	+15	2.6
2032	28	MLB	BAL	76%	519	462	109	18	1	18	48	122	4	9	2	236	313	396	709	160	280	24	9	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.5
2033	29	MLB	BAL	74%	509	453	106	18	1	17	47	121	4	8	2	234	312	391	702	157	279	24	9	314	99	-1	+1	-2	+9	+14	2.2
2034	30	MLB	BAL	73%	499	447	104	17	1	17	46	120	3	8	2	233	308	389	698	157	278	24	9	312	97	-2	+1	-2	+9	+14	2.0
2035	31	MLB	BAL	73%	470	420	96	16	1	15	44	114	3	7	2	229	306	379	685	150	276	24	9	307	93	-3	+1	-3	+8	+13	1.6
2036	32	MLB	BAL	72%	439	392	88	14	1	14	41	108	3	6	1	224	303	372	675	148	272	25	9	302	89	-5	+1	-4	+8	+12	1.2
2037	33	MLB	BAL	72%	398	356	78	12	1	12	37	100	2	5	1	219	296	360	656	140	268	25	9	295	84	-7	+1	-4	+7	+11	0.7
2038	34	MLB	BAL	68%	345	308	66	10	1	10	32	89	2	4	1	214	292	351	643	136	263	26	9	286	77	-9	+0	-5	+6	+10	0.2
2027	23	MLB	BAL	49%	238	214	51	9	1	8	21	57	1	4	1	238	309	402	711	164	283	24	9	308	94	-2	+0	-0	+4	+7	1.0
2028	24	MLB	BAL	65%	325	291	70	12	1	11	29	77	2	6	1	241	314	402	716	162	285	24	9	313	98	-1	+1	-0	+6	+9	1.5
2029	25	MLB	BAL	73%	372	333	81	14	1	13	33	87	3	7	2	243	317	408	725	165	285	23	9	316	100	+0	+1	-0	+7	+11	1.8
2030	26	MLB	BAL	76%	396	354	86	15	1	14	36	92	3	7	2	243	318	410	728	167	286	23	9	317	101	+0	+1	-0	+7	+11	2.0
2031	27	MLB	BAL	76%	396	354	86	15	1	14	36	93	3	7	2	243	318	410	728	167	285	23	9	317	101	+0	+1	-0	+7	+11	2.0
2032	28	MLB	BAL	76%	395	353	85	15	1	14	36	93	3	7	2	241	316	408	724	167	285	24	9	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.9
2033	29	MLB	BAL	74%	378	337	81	14	1	13	35	90	3	6	1	240	317	404	721	163	284	24	9	315	99	-0	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.7
2034	30	MLB	BAL	73%	366	326	78	13	1	13	34	88	3	6	1	239	317	405	722	166	283	24	9	312	97	-1	+1	-2	+7	+10	1.5
2035	31	MLB	BAL	73%	342	305	72	12	1	12	32	83	2	5	1	236	313	400	713	164	280	24	9	308	94	-2	+1	-2	+6	+10	1.2
2036	32	MLB	BAL	72%	317	283	65	11	1	10	29	78	2	4	1	230	306	382	687	152	277	25	9	302	89	-4	+0	-3	+6	+9	0.9
2037	33	MLB	BAL	72%	287	257	57	9	0	9	26	72	2	4	1	222	298	362	660	140	273	25	9	295	84	-5	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.5
2038	34	MLB	BAL	68%	233	209	45	7	0	7	21	60	1	3	1	215	290	349	639	134	267	26	9	287	77	-6	+0	-3	+4	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4049	3620	858	146	10	138	368	971	28	66	16	237	312	397	709	160	284	24	9	310	96	-20	+7	-16	+72	+115	16.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	138	23	2	22	59	156	4	11	3	238	312	398	709	160	286	24	9	310	96	-3	+1	-3	+12	+18	2.6
Career	—			—	6437	5754	1326	219	15	200	585	1540	42	119	29	230	306	378	684	148	278	24	9	305	92	-59	+12	-23	+115	+182	23.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	134	22	2	20	59	156	4	12	3	231	306	379	685	148	279	24	9	305	92	-6	+1	-2	+12	+18	2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	20	17	6	1	0	0	3	6	0	3	2	353	450	412	862	59	545	30	15	395	160	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	63	56	15	3	2	1	6	9	0	3	0	268	339	446	785	179	298	14	10	341	119	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	21	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	80	65	14	1	0	1	12	13	1	0	0	215	346	277	623	62	245	16	15	292	81	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	283	245	63	13	1	3	31	51	1	15	3	257	341	355	696	98	308	18	11	313	98	-1	+2	—	—	+8	0.9
2025	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	83	70	21	7	0	1	12	20	0	2	2	300	402	443	845	143	400	24	14	376	146	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,052	134	65	233	306	388	+72	-8	16.7	14.6
	/162	664	22	11	233	306	388	+11.9	-1.3	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	8	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
	/162	664	24	1	254	313	425	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Anderson (OGILVIE)	22	50	42	47	56	234/307/424	190	273	22	9	25%	9%	100	+2.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brayan Rocchio 2023 · AAA	22	44→54	47→45	46→50	43	221/281/359	138	274	15	13	25%	6%	78	+0.2	230/298/350	120	278	10	16	20%	8%	82	+0.5	226/301/345	120	264	11	17	18%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Ruben Gotay 2005 · MLB	22	52→51	43→45	46→50	46	249/304/365	117	309	9	6	22%	6%	88	+0.9	233/288/356	123	274	11	7	19%	6%	79	+0.3	232/338/349	117	300	9	1	23%	13%	96	+1.0
✕Juan Brito 2023 · A	21	48→49	47→50	48→45	53	234/319/377	143	286	13	11	22%	10%	98	+1.6	227/305/369	142	277	14	9	22%	9%	91	+1.1	218/298/359	141	264	15	9	22%	9%	83	+0.4
●Jemile Weeks 2010 · AA	23	49→59	45	52→55	48	241/305/360	119	290	12	12	21%	8%	88	+0.9	250/308/359	109	296	7	19	17%	7%	88	+0.9	257/326/351	94	310	3	20	17%	8%	89	+1.0
✕Brooks Lee 2023 · A	22	49→50	46→50	41→45	50	242/309/371	129	290	13	6	21%	8%	92	+1.2	241/293/377	136	281	14	6	19%	7%	87	+0.8	240/293/387	147	262	19	6	17%	6%	87	+0.6
✕Angel Martínez 2023 · AA	21	44→47	44→50	48→50	47	218/285/344	126	279	11	11	25%	8%	76	+0.0	225/282/355	130	283	13	10	24%	6%	76	+0.1	227/277/371	143	272	15	13	22%	5%	78	+0.1
●Graham Pauley 2023 · A	22	45→52	46→55	48→50	52	224/303/356	132	269	13	12	22%	9%	86	+0.8	237/303/415	178	282	22	11	24%	8%	102	+1.8	230/299/411	181	267	23	11	23%	8%	96	+1.1
✕Francisco Mejía 2018 · AA	22	52→61	46→55	47→40	42	258/295/389	131	302	14	6	20%	4%	91	+1.1	238/283/390	152	286	17	4	23%	5%	86	+0.8	256/302/428	172	302	17	1	21%	5%	103	+1.0
✕Omar Mendoza 2006 · AAA	23	50→54	44→45	44→45	50	244/303/372	127	286	9	7	18%	8%	89	+1.0	247/297/367	120	295	12	8	20%	7%	85	+0.7	248/297/361	113	293	12	9	19%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Domingo Leyba 2019 · AA	23	48→50	42→50	47→45	47	234/285/336	102	275	9	7	18%	6%	72	-0.2	225/272/364	139	264	15	4	21%	5%	75	-0.0	230/290/372	142	257	18	6	18%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Ehire Adrianza 2012 · A	22	47→49	40→50	50	45	225/284/327	102	291	6	13	24%	7%	70	-0.3	216/275/306	90	281	5	13	23%	7%	60	-1.0	241/326/373	132	289	11	1	19%	10%	97	+0.5
●Ke'Bryan Hayes 2019 · AA	22	50→55	42→50	52→50	48	238/300/350	112	299	8	14	22%	8%	82	+0.5	248/307/389	141	308	12	12	22%	7%	96	+1.5	257/313/393	137	315	12	16	21%	7%	97	+1.3
✕Nick Franklin 2013 · AAA	22	47→50	46→50	53→50	42	232/280/363	131	297	13	13	26%	6%	77	+0.1	232/297/369	137	294	14	12	25%	8%	87	+0.8	224/295/364	140	279	16	11	25%	9%	83	+0.5
✕Luis Santana 2021 · AA	22	50	39→45	48→50	48	235/305/324	89	283	6	8	19%	7%	79	+0.3	210/269/326	116	284	12	9	29%	6%	64	-0.8	207/265/333	126	274	15	8	29%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	47→49	41→45	49→45	50	221/327/317	97	287	8	9	24%	9%	88	+0.9	227/313/341	114	287	11	7	24%	7%	88	+0.9	227/317/342	114	286	11	5	23%	7%	86	+0.4
●Ramón Urías 2016 · AAA	22	51→57	42→50	45→50	41	249/296/354	105	296	10	12	20%	4%	82	+0.5	250/316/377	127	303	13	12	21%	5%	97	+1.5	249/317/382	133	319	14	3	25%	7%	96	+1.0
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	47→45	44→45	47→70	45	231/292/348	118	278	10	9	21%	6%	79	+0.3	221/292/340	119	284	12	26	25%	7%	78	+0.2	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Shawn Zarraga 2012 · A	23	50	40	50→45	45	239/299/331	92	302	7	9	23%	6%	77	+0.1	253/313/348	95	300	6	7	17%	6%	88	+0.9	277/347/362	84	322	4	2	14%	8%	106	+0.8
✕John Aiello 2019 · A	22	47	40→45	47→45	44	219/301/315	96	319	7	7	31%	8%	76	+0.0	197/268/294	97	359	8	6	44%	6%	56	-1.3	215/299/321	106	346	10	3	37%	8%	72	-0.1
●J.P. Crawford 2017 · AAA	22	49→58	40→45	46→50	53	233/299/323	90	271	7	11	17%	8%	75	-0.0	211/291/327	116	266	10	8	23%	10%	73	-0.1	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9