Mickey Gasper

C Worcester Red Sox
Age 31 S/R 5'9" / 205 lbs AAA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.824 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202428AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs448.310/.435/.492126116—.277/.364/.428
202428MLBBOS23.000/.217/.00000-10-0.1
202529AAA/INTL2 orgs273.277/.388/.48911498—.229/.303/.372
202529MLBMIN110.158/.259/.2322243-0.0
202630AAABOS242.337/.456/.56697125—.275/.360/.431
202630MLBBOS225.251/.359/.4661001292.1
2027PROJ45% MLB31MLBBOS107.238/.331/.398311030.4
2028PROJ53% MLB32MLBBOS133.233/.324/.38441970.2
2029PROJ58% MLB33MLBBOS127.225/.316/.36731910.0
Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.824First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$1M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$4M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA56
Avg EV44
Bat Spd43
Barrel%40
Speed33
Form.230/.328/.417 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .231/.322/.388
CompsDioner Navarro (age 31) · Ryan Doumit (age 31) · Michael McKenry (age 31)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 103103vR 103
AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .331 / .398
PA107
HR3
K%19
BB%10
BABIP270
ISO151
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +0.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+1BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -2.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +4.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.70+0.7WAR
0.00.51.00.30.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT60
xAVG
130.221
POWER60
Barrel%
406.9
Avg EV
4488.7
Bat Spd
4370.6
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
3326.7
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%22%▼▼24% over 71 PA (60d) · proj 19%
BB%11%▲13% over 71 PA (60d) · proj 11%
ISO.187▲.267 over 60 AB (60d) · proj .157
HR/BB6.3%▲▲11.6% over 43 BBE (60d) · proj 4.3%
BABIP.256·.184 over 38 BIP (60d) · proj .260
SLASH.230/.328/.417▲proj .231/.322/.388
Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 130 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
37
93
—
wRC+
38
26
◀◀L
wOBA
225
207
◀L
ISO
—
087
—
BABIP
261
108
◀◀L
K%
24.3%
20.4%
▶▶R
BB%
10.8%
8.6%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2024
Service   0.824 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.5M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $2M +$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201822 ROKPulaski Yankees — 172139 36609 30212 00 259398496894 237245 1217 394 77 — — — — — —
201923 A+Tampa Tarpons — 8978 25502 7163 20 321398462859 141377 188 382 96 — — — — — —
201923 ACharleston RiverDogs — 343288 671708 44638 10 233350375725 142268 1813 330 55 — — — — — —
202125 AASomerset Patriots — 4035 12221 262 20 3434106001.010 257379 155 427 149 — — — — — —
202125 A+Hudson Valley Renegades — 2622 7101 262 00 318423500923 182400 238 414 98 — — — — — —
202226 AASomerset Patriots — 270214 571418 44539 32 266412453865 187314 2016 386 99 — — — — — —
202327 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 7868 13201 8162 20 191295265560 74235 2110 266 28 — — — — — —
202327 AASomerset Patriots — 188156 42606 26275 81 269390423813 154290 1414 368 88 — — — — — —
202428 MLBBoston Red Sox — 2318 0000 481 00 217217 3517 153 -10 -3 +0 -0 +2 +0 -0.1
202428 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 204169 621408 30204 11 3674735921.065 225380 1015 464 139 — — — — — —
202428 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 176142 401304 26225 30 282410458868 176303 1215 384 94 — — — — — —
202428 INTLCriollos de Caguas — 6853 11110 1372 20 208382264647 57239 1019 317 101 — — — — — —
202529 MLBMinnesota Twins — 11095 15102 10203 20 158259232491 74176 189 232 43 -7 +0 -2 +7 +2 -0.0
202529 AAASt. Paul Saints — 208179 5114010 25384 20 285385531915 246313 1812 402 90 — — — — — —
202529 INTLToros del Este — 6552 13201 1182 20 250400346746 96279 1217 351 124 — — — — — —
202630 MLBBoston Red Sox — 225191 489110 27395 01 251359466825 215266 1712 364 129 +8 -0 +0 +8 +5 2.1
202630 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 242196 661809 42391 71 3374565661.022 230377 1617 443 125 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 358304 6310112 41679 21 207319365684 158225 1911 310 96 -2 +0 -2 +17 +8 2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201822 ROK MLEPulaski Yankees — 172150 28407 19302 00 187287353640 167181 1711 282 77 — — — — — —
201923 A+ MLETampa Tarpons — 8980 21502 5233 20 263330400730 138330 266 310 96 — — — — — —
201923 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 343305 551307 27878 10 180265292557 111220 258 249 55 — — — — — —
202125 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 4036 12221 172 20 333385583968 250355 182 389 149 — — — — — —
202125 A+ MLEHudson Valley Renegades — 2623 6101 182 00 261346435781 174343 314 313 98 — — — — — —
202226 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 270227 521216 31659 32 229345370715 141280 2411 315 99 — — — — — —
202327 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 7871 12201 5192 20 169244239483 70209 246 209 28 — — — — — —
202327 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 188164 38505 18335 81 232326354680 122258 1810 299 88 — — — — — —
202428 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 2318 0000 481 00 217217 3517 153 -10 -3 +0 -0 +2 +0 -0.1
202428 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 204180 561306 19244 11 311389483872 172325 129 374 139 — — — — — —
202428 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 176151 361003 17265 30 238335364699 126251 1510 307 94 — — — — — —
202529 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 11095 15102 10203 20 158259232491 74176 189 232 43 -7 +0 -2 +7 +2 -0.0
202529 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 208188 431205 16464 20 229303372675 144277 228 301 90 — — — — — —
202630 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 225191 478110 27395 01 246354455810 209266 1712 359 129 +8 -0 +0 +8 +5 2.1
202630 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 242211 581506 27471 71 275360431791 156320 1911 353 125 — — — — — —
201822 ROK MLEPulaski Yankees — 172150 28407 19302 00 187287353640 167184 1711 282 77 — — — — — —
201822 ROK RAWPulaski Yankees — 172139 36609 30212 00 259398496894 237245 1217 394 77 — — — — — —
201923 A MLE2 teams — 432385 761809 3211011 30 197278314592 117248 257 262 63 — — — — — —
201923 A RAW2 teams — 432366 9222010 517911 30 251360393753 142292 1812 340 63 — — — — — —
202125 AA MLE2 teams — 6658 18322 3154 20 310385534919 224381 235 359 129 — — — — — —
202125 AA RAW2 teams — 6657 19322 4124 20 333415561977 228386 186 422 129 — — — — — —
202226 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 270227 521216 31659 32 229345370715 141289 2411 315 99 — — — — — —
202226 AA RAWSomerset Patriots — 270214 571418 44539 32 266412453865 187314 2016 386 99 — — — — — —
202327 AA MLE2 teams — 266235 49705 23527 101 209298302600 94246 209 273 71 — — — — — —
202327 AA RAW2 teams — 266224 55807 34437 101 246362375737 129274 1613 338 71 — — — — — —
202428 AAA MLE4 teams — 471408 10626010 476812 61 260353397750 137287 1410 332 111 — — — — — —
202428 AAA RAW4 teams — 471382 11328112 735712 61 296424469893 173319 1215 398 111 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLE3 teams — 383341 711609 31809 60 208291334626 126245 218 277 74 — — — — — —
202529 AAA RAW3 teams — 383326 7917013 46669 60 242352414766 172266 1712 344 74 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 467402 10623117 54866 72 264359453812 189294 1812 356 127 — — — — — —
202630 AAA RAW2 teams — 467387 11427119 69786 72 295409517926 222323 1715 405 127 — — — — — —
201822 ROK MLEPulaski Yankees — 172149 28407 19302 00 188287356642 168181 1711 282 77 — — — — — —
201923 A MLE2 teams — 432386 761809 3211011 30 197278313592 117243 257 262 63 — — — — — —
202125 AA MLE2 teams — 6659 18322 3154 20 305385525910 220350 235 359 129 — — — — — —
202226 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 270228 521216 31659 32 228345368713 140280 2411 315 99 — — — — — —
202327 AA MLE2 teams — 266234 49705 23527 101 209298303602 94244 209 273 71 — — — — — —
202428 AAA MLE4 teams — 471409 10626010 476812 61 259353396749 137274 1410 332 111 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLE3 teams — 383340 711609 31809 60 209291335627 126242 218 277 74 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 467404 10623117 54866 72 262359450810 188294 1812 356 127 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202428 AAA MLE4 teams — 471409 10626010 476812 61 259353396749 137274 1410 332 111 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLE3 teams — 383340 711609 31809 60 209291335627 126242 218 277 74 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 467404 10623117 54866 72 262359450810 188294 1812 356 127 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202731 MLB MLEBOS 45% 380332 7616111 40715 52 231325388713 157260 1911 320 103 +1 +0 -3 +7 +8 0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202731 MLB CTXBOS 45% 10793 22503 11202 10 238331398729 159270 1910 326 103 +0 +0 -1 +2 +2 0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202832 MLB MLEBOS 53% 250219 501017 26483 21 226318374693 149256 1910 312 97 -1 +0 -6 +4 +5 0.4
202933 MLB MLEBOS 58% 220192 42816 23433 11 219311358669 139251 2010 302 91 -2 -0 -6 +4 +5 0.0
202832 MLB CTXBOS 53% 133116 27604 14262 10 233324384708 151265 2011 318 97 -0 +0 -3 +2 +3 0.2
202933 MLB CTXBOS 58% 127111 24503 13252 10 225316367684 142260 2010 308 91 -1 +0 -3 +2 +3 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 618531 11421119 6811813 41 215319365684 151239 1911 311 94 -4 +0 -9 +22 +13 2.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650558 12022120 7212414 41 215320366685 151239 1911 311 94 -4 +0 -9 +23 +14 2.5
Career— MLE — 32352825 646137785 31464269 439 229321372693 144265 2010 307 94 -4 +0 -16 +30 +23 3.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650568 13028117 6312914 92 229321371692 143265 2010 307 94 -3 +0 -10 +18 +14 2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 242 PAwOBA .436 → .353 (−83)K% 16.1% → 19.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.12%÷1.000×1.200——19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.94%÷1.000×0.690—×0.96211.25%
HBP% /PA0.41%—×0.940—×0.9620.37%
Singles /BIP24.84%÷1.000×0.930×0.999×0.96222.20%
Doubles /BIP11.46%÷1.000×0.830×0.999×0.9629.15%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.999×0.9620.00%
Home runs /BIP5.73%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9623.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .436 → .353; ISO .230 → .177; BABIP .377 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 208 PAwOBA .390 → .301 (−89)K% 18.3% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.27%÷0.989×1.200——22.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.54%÷1.022×0.690—×0.9727.57%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.940—×0.9721.76%
Singles /BIP19.15%÷0.944×0.930×0.989×0.97218.14%
Doubles /BIP9.93%÷0.938×0.830×0.989×0.9728.45%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.989×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP7.09%÷1.253×0.700—×0.9723.85%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .390 → .301; ISO .246 → .159; BABIP .313 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 204 PAwOBA .454 → .374 (−81)K% 9.8% → 11.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.80%÷1.004×1.200——11.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.71%÷1.049×0.690—×0.9829.49%
HBP% /PA1.96%—×0.940—×0.9821.81%
Singles /BIP26.85%÷1.036×0.930×0.994×0.98223.53%
Doubles /BIP9.40%÷0.951×0.830×0.994×0.9828.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.143×0.970×0.994×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP5.37%÷0.996×0.700—×0.9823.71%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .454 → .374; ISO .225 → .178; BABIP .380 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 176 PAwOBA .381 → .307 (−75)K% 12.5% → 14.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.50%÷1.033×1.220——14.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.77%÷1.025×0.700—×0.9589.67%
HBP% /PA2.84%—×0.850—×0.9582.31%
Singles /BIP19.17%÷1.004×0.970×0.989×0.95817.54%
Doubles /BIP10.83%÷1.165×0.860×0.989×0.9587.57%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.950×0.989×0.9580.00%
Home runs /BIP3.33%÷1.018×0.780—×0.9582.45%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .381 → .307; ISO .176 → .135; BABIP .303 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASomerset Patriots · 188 PAwOBA .361 → .299 (−62)K% 14.4% → 17.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.36%÷1.006×1.220——17.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.83%÷0.973×0.700—×0.9689.63%
HBP% /PA2.66%—×0.850—×0.9682.19%
Singles /BIP23.26%÷0.987×0.970×0.962×0.96821.27%
Doubles /BIP4.65%÷0.958×0.860×0.962×0.9683.89%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950×0.962×0.9680.00%
Home runs /BIP4.65%÷1.033×0.780—×0.9683.40%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .361 → .299; ISO .154 → .120; BABIP .290 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 78 PAwOBA .260 → .209 (−51)K% 20.5% → 24.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.51%÷0.998×1.200——24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.26%÷1.059×0.690—×0.9926.63%
HBP% /PA2.56%—×0.940—×0.9922.39%
Singles /BIP19.23%÷1.029×0.930×0.993×0.99217.12%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷0.903×0.830×0.993×0.9923.48%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.048×0.970×0.993×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP1.92%÷1.017×0.700—×0.9921.31%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .260 → .209; ISO .074 → .056; BABIP .235 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 270 PAwOBA .381 → .315 (−66)K% 19.6% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.63%÷0.998×1.220——24.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.30%÷0.985×0.700—×0.97811.33%
HBP% /PA3.33%—×0.850—×0.9782.77%
Singles /BIP21.12%÷0.983×0.970×0.963×0.97819.62%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷0.972×0.860×0.963×0.9787.24%
Triples /BIP0.62%÷0.969×0.950×0.963×0.9780.57%
Home runs /BIP4.97%÷1.032×0.780—×0.9783.67%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 94, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .381 → .315; ISO .187 → .152; BABIP .314 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 40 PAwOBA .426 → .389 (−37)K% 15.0% → 17.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.00%÷1.024×1.220——17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.00%÷1.036×0.690—×0.9883.29%
HBP% /PA5.00%—×0.850—×0.9884.20%
Singles /BIP24.14%÷1.008×0.940—×0.98822.24%
Doubles /BIP6.90%÷0.905×0.870—×0.9886.55%
Triples /BIP6.90%÷0.900×0.920—×0.9886.97%
Home runs /BIP3.45%÷1.053×0.780—×0.9882.52%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .426 → .389; ISO .257 → .239; BABIP .379 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .