Esteban Mejia — OGILVIE

Esteban Mejia P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%24.5%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$72M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL4050

CMD4050

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$10M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Arb-1	$7M	+2.2	$10M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$11M	+2.1	$9M	+$4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$21M		$50M	+$40M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	24.7%	15.5%	9.2%	0.0%	3.25	2.97	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	24.7%	15.5%	9.2%	0.0%	3.25	2.97	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	36.4%	12.4%	24.0%	0.0%	3.25	1.55	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	20.4%	16.9%	3.6%	0.0%	2.94	3.51	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	20.4%	16.9%	3.6%	0.0%	2.94	3.51	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	29.5%	13.7%	15.9%	0.0%	2.94	2.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	15.8%	29.9%	-14.1%	1.9%	9.80	6.59	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	15.8%	29.9%	-14.1%	1.9%	9.80	6.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	BAL	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	21.4%	25.4%	-4.0%	1.4%	9.80	5.30	—
ROS	19	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	6	26	6	4	1	100%	6.2	24.5%	15.9%	8.5%	2.7%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
2026 TOT	19	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	59	302	65	74	5	—	—	21.6%	24.5%	-2.9%	1.6%	9.28	6.41	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	108	454	107	66	12	100%	5.4	23.5%	14.5%	9.0%	2.7%	4.83	4.81	+0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	147	621	151	80	17	100%	5.4	24.3%	12.8%	11.4%	2.7%	4.63	4.52	+0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	BAL	32	32	175	739	188	85	19	100%	5.5	25.4%	11.5%	13.9%	2.6%	4.38	4.23	+1.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	BAL	32	32	175	740	193	78	19	100%	5.5	26.1%	10.6%	15.5%	2.6%	4.17	4.03	+1.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	BAL	31	31	175	740	198	74	19	100%	5.7	26.7%	10.1%	16.7%	2.6%	4.01	3.90	+2.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	BAL	30	30	175	740	201	72	19	100%	5.8	27.1%	9.7%	17.4%	2.5%	3.89	3.81	+2.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	175	740	202	71	19	100%	6.0	27.3%	9.7%	17.7%	2.5%	3.83	3.79	+2.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	173	729	199	71	19	100%	6.0	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	2.6%	3.83	3.83	+2.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	167	707	192	70	19	100%	6.0	27.2%	9.9%	17.3%	2.7%	3.88	3.91	+2.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	160	675	182	68	19	100%	5.9	27.0%	10.1%	16.8%	2.8%	3.98	4.04	+1.6
2037	30	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	150	635	169	66	19	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.4%	16.2%	3.0%	4.12	4.22	+1.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	140	592	155	64	19	100%	6.1	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	3.3%	4.30	4.42	+0.8
2039	32	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	130	548	141	61	19	100%	5.9	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	3.5%	4.51	4.65	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	53	224	53	32	6	100%	5.3	23.5%	14.5%	9.0%	2.8%	4.90	4.88	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	107	452	110	58	13	100%	5.6	24.3%	12.8%	11.4%	2.8%	4.70	4.59	+0.5
2029	22	MLB CTX	BAL	27	27	148	625	159	72	17	100%	5.5	25.4%	11.5%	13.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.29	+1.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	BAL	29	29	157	663	173	70	18	100%	5.4	26.1%	10.6%	15.5%	2.7%	4.23	4.09	+1.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	BAL	29	29	161	680	182	68	18	100%	5.6	26.7%	10.1%	16.7%	2.7%	4.07	3.96	+1.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	BAL	28	28	164	692	188	67	18	100%	5.9	27.1%	9.7%	17.4%	2.7%	3.95	3.87	+2.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	BAL	28	28	166	701	192	68	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	9.7%	17.7%	2.7%	3.89	3.85	+2.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	BAL	27	27	164	692	189	67	19	100%	6.1	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	2.7%	3.89	3.89	+2.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	159	671	183	66	19	100%	6.1	27.2%	9.9%	17.3%	2.8%	3.95	3.98	+1.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	BAL	25	25	152	642	173	65	19	100%	6.1	27.0%	10.1%	16.8%	3.0%	4.05	4.11	+1.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	143	604	161	63	19	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.4%	16.2%	3.2%	4.20	4.30	+1.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	133	562	147	60	19	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	3.4%	4.38	4.50	+0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	123	519	134	58	19	100%	6.2	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	3.7%	4.60	4.74	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		322	322	1831	7730	2043	816	223	100%	5.7	26.4%	10.6%	15.9%	2.9%	4.19	3.79	+24.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	223	89	24	100%	5.7	26.4%	10.6%	15.9%	2.9%	4.19	3.79	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		46	46	132	624	120	140	5	100%	2.9	19.2%	22.4%	-3.2%	0.8%	5.73	4.77	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	70	200	945	182	212	8	100%	2.9	19.2%	22.4%	-3.2%	0.8%	5.73	4.77	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Esteban Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	24.5%	15.9%	2.7%	—	4.47	24.6%	11.9%	430	-0.46	—	—	—
Mick Abel R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	25.8%	16.9%	3.5%	.242	4.88	20.9%	7.4%	326	-0.07	2.24	528	83
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	83
Biembenido Brito R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP	4.64	24.7%	18.5%	2.3%	.301	5.37	18.7%	-1.3%	91	+0.73	3.58	130	82
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	80
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.86	438	80
AJ Smith-Shawver R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP	3.74	25.5%	15.4%	1.5%	.327	4.89	23.2%	12.3%	212	+1.15	3.74	323	79
Luis Perales R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP	3.74	23.9%	16.6%	1.0%	.253	4.39	23.9%	10.2%	116	+0.65	2.34	248	78
Eric Silva R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	19	SP	5.03	20.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.306	4.89	17.3%	5.6%	163	-0.14	4.68	299	78
Jeisson Cabrera R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	19	SP	3.79	20.0%	13.0%	1.3%	.312	4.42	21.3%	5.8%	51	+0.63	3.78	244	78
Ricardo Yan R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP	4.00	20.5%	14.6%	1.4%	.271	4.43	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.43	3.62	300	76
Reggie Lawson R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	19	SP	4.73	21.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.313	4.68	18.5%	7.2%	145	-0.05	4.19	293	76
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	76
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	76
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP	4.03	24.5%	12.8%	2.5%	.326	5.91	18.3%	1.5%	143	+1.88	4.03	272	75
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	75
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	75
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	75
Gerelmi Maldonado R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	19	SP	4.82	20.9%	16.4%	2.5%	.292	5.40	19.7%	-3.7%	91	+0.58	3.83	225	74
Reny Artiles R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	24.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.419	5.64	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.30	4.34	165	74
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.6	152	26.2%	10.9%	1.07	4.18
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45