Esteban Mejia
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 19
RHP
6'3" / 175 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126116vR 107
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
K%23.8%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 10 | 10 | 28 | 121 | 44 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 24.7% | 15.5% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 3.25 | 2.97 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 10 | 10 | 28 | 121 | 44 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 36.4% | 12.4% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 3.25 | 1.55 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 52 | 227 | 67 | 31 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 20.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 2.94 | 3.51 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 52 | 227 | 67 | 31 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 29.5% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 2.94 | 2.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 15 | 15 | 42 | 217 | 47 | 57 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 16.0% | 31.0% | -15.0% | 2.4% | 8.08 | 6.99 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.8% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.8% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.77 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 107 | 491 | 112 | 94 | 11 | — | — | 22.8% | 19.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 6.04 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 103 | 58 | 12 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 147 | 621 | 144 | 72 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.46 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 32 | 32 | 175 | 739 | 179 | 78 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.22 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 33 | 33 | 180 | 760 | 189 | 76 | 20 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.9% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.06 | +2.8 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 32 | 32 | 180 | 760 | 193 | 73 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.4% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 3.94 | +3.1 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 196 | 71 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 3.87 | +3.2 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 198 | 71 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 16.8% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 3.85 | +3.3 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 195 | 70 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.89 | +3.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 188 | 69 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +2.9 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 178 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.7% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.10 | +2.5 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 165 | 65 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.28 | +2.0 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 152 | 63 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.48 | +1.5 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 138 | 61 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 4.57 | 4.71 | +1.1 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 105 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 148 | 625 | 151 | 66 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.27 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 170 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.9% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.11 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 30 | 166 | 701 | 178 | 67 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.4% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 3.99 | +2.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 29 | 29 | 168 | 709 | 183 | 66 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 16.5% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 3.92 | +2.9 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 28 | 28 | 171 | 722 | 188 | 67 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 16.8% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 3.90 | +3.0 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 185 | 66 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +2.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 178 | 65 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.03 | +2.6 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 169 | 64 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.16 | +2.3 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 157 | 62 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.34 | +1.8 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 144 | 60 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.55 | +1.4 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 131 | 58 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 329 | 329 | 1872 | 7906 | 1990 | 791 | 227 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.2% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +34.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 213 | 84 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.2% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 122 | 565 | 111 | 124 | 5 | 100% | 3.1 | 19.7% | 22.0% | -2.3% | 0.9% | 4.80 | 4.73 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 64 | 200 | 926 | 182 | 204 | 9 | 100% | 3.1 | 19.7% | 22.0% | -2.3% | 0.9% | 4.80 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Esteban Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 23.8% | 13.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.42 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 430 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Eric Silva R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.91 | 20.1% | 12.6% | 3.5% | .306 | 4.97 | 17.3% | 5.6% | 163 | +0.06 | 4.59 | 281 | 85 |
| Adrian Heredia R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.78 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .300 | 5.09 | 15.7% | 2.9% | 81 | +1.31 | 3.39 | 125 | 83 |
| Reggie Lawson R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.65 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 3.0% | .313 | 4.94 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 145 | +0.29 | 3.86 | 293 | 82 |
| Jeisson Cabrera R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.79 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .312 | 4.42 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 51 | +0.63 | 3.69 | 224 | 82 |
| Josh Knoth R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.25 | 19.7% | 13.1% | 2.1% | .326 | 3.51 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 33 | -0.74 | 3.51 | 118 | 82 |
| Nate Dohm R 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 81 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.66 | 25.5% | 15.4% | 1.4% | .327 | 5.01 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 212 | +1.35 | 3.66 | 280 | 81 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.47 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.30 | 3.83 | 358 | 81 |
| Alejandro Hidalgo R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.23 | 24.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .326 | 5.90 | 18.3% | 1.5% | 143 | +1.67 | 4.23 | 251 | 81 |
| Brandon Young R 2029 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 80 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 80 |
| Tanner McDougal R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.23 | 19.7% | 16.9% | 3.0% | .285 | 5.09 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 233 | -0.14 | 3.96 | 302 | 80 |
| Dylan Jordan R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.96 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 25.0% | 10.6% | 72 | -0.19 | 3.77 | 148 | 80 |
| Mick Abel R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.97 | 25.8% | 16.9% | 3.5% | .242 | 4.96 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 326 | -0.01 | 2.24 | 528 | 80 |
| Levi Wells R 2029 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 132 | -0.47 | 3.70 | 192 | 80 |
| Adrian Navas R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.67 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .272 | 5.34 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 145 | +1.67 | 3.67 | 204 | 79 |
| Biembenido Brito R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.62 | 24.7% | 18.5% | 2.3% | .301 | 5.30 | 18.7% | -1.3% | 91 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 130 | 79 |
| Owen Murphy R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.23 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .325 | 4.15 | 24.9% | 14.7% | 149 | -0.08 | 3.05 | 239 | 79 |
| Beck Way R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.53 | 23.1% | 16.5% | 2.4% | .250 | 4.90 | 19.8% | 5.4% | 246 | +0.37 | 3.99 | 433 | 78 |
| Tanner Burns R 2029 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 155 | 25.0% | 10.2% | 1.07 | 4.18 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |