Esteban Mejia

P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#257ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Orioles O…	10	10	28	3.25	1.55	36.4%	12.4%	—	K 24.7% · BB 15.5% · FIP 2.97
2025	18	MIX2 levels	14	14	52	2.94	2.31	29.5%	13.7%	—	K 20.4% · BB 16.9% · FIP 3.51
2026	19	ABAL	22	22	52	9.80	5.85	21.4%	25.4%	—	K 15.8% · BB 29.9% · FIP 6.59
2027PROJ	20	MLBBAL	—	—	0	5.81	5.81	20.3%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBBAL	8	8	42	5.62	5.54	20.4%	17.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBBAL	14	14	77	5.24	5.04	22.4%	15.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsTanner McDougal (age 20) · Kohl Franklin (age 22) · Nolan Perry (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%20.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.3%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$51M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$21M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	24.7%	15.5%	9.2%	0.0%	3.25	2.97	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	24.7%	15.5%	9.2%	0.0%	3.25	2.97	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	36.4%	12.4%	24.0%	0.0%	3.25	1.55	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	20.4%	16.9%	3.6%	0.0%	2.94	3.51	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	20.4%	16.9%	3.6%	0.0%	2.94	3.51	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	29.5%	13.7%	15.9%	0.0%	2.94	2.31	—
2026	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	15.8%	29.9%	-14.1%	1.9%	9.80	6.59	—
2026	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	15.8%	29.9%	-14.1%	1.9%	9.80	6.59	—
2026	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	21.4%	25.4%	-4.0%	1.4%	9.80	5.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	20.0%	0.3%	2.7%	5.81	5.81	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	85	357	73	63	10	100%	5.6	20.4%	17.6%	2.8%	2.7%	5.55	5.47	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	106	445	100	68	12	100%	5.6	22.4%	15.2%	7.3%	2.7%	5.17	4.97	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	114	481	114	65	13	100%	5.4	23.7%	13.5%	10.2%	2.6%	4.84	4.64	+1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	116	491	120	61	13	100%	5.5	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	2.6%	4.59	4.43	+1.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	116	490	122	58	13	100%	5.8	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.6%	4.41	4.29	+1.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	116	491	124	58	13	100%	6.1	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	2.6%	4.33	4.27	+1.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	114	479	121	57	13	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.31	+1.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	108	458	115	55	13	100%	6.0	25.1%	12.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.36	4.39	+1.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	101	427	106	52	12	100%	5.9	24.8%	12.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.46	4.52	+1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	92	389	95	49	12	100%	6.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	3.1%	4.60	4.70	+0.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	83	351	85	45	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.3%	4.78	4.90	+0.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	75	315	74	42	11	100%	6.2	23.6%	13.3%	10.4%	3.6%	4.99	5.13	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	42	177	36	31	5	100%	5.2	20.4%	17.6%	2.8%	2.8%	5.62	5.54	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	77	325	73	49	9	100%	5.5	22.4%	15.2%	7.3%	2.8%	5.24	5.04	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	96	405	96	55	11	100%	5.6	23.7%	13.5%	10.2%	2.8%	4.91	4.71	+0.9
2031	24	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	104	439	108	55	12	100%	5.5	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	2.7%	4.65	4.49	+1.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	106	448	112	53	12	100%	5.9	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.7%	4.47	4.35	+1.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	108	456	115	54	12	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.39	4.33	+1.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	108	456	115	54	13	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	2.8%	4.39	4.38	+1.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	103	435	109	52	13	100%	6.1	25.1%	12.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+1.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	96	405	101	50	12	100%	6.0	24.8%	12.2%	12.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.59	+1.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	88	372	91	47	12	100%	5.9	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	3.2%	4.68	4.78	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	79	334	80	43	12	100%	6.1	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.5%	4.86	4.98	+0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	71	300	71	40	11	100%	5.9	23.6%	13.3%	10.4%	3.7%	5.08	5.22	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		187	187	1077	4549	1106	581	134	100%	5.8	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.70	4.28	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	205	108	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.70	4.28	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		46	46	132	624	120	140	5	100%	2.9	19.2%	22.4%	-3.2%	0.8%	5.73	4.77	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	70	200	945	182	212	8	100%	2.9	19.2%	22.4%	-3.2%	0.8%	5.73	4.77	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 52 IPFIP 5.30 → 6.59 (+1.29)K% 21.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.38%	—	×0.740	15.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.36%	—	×1.180	29.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.30 → 6.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 40 IPFIP 2.36 → 3.62 (+1.26)K% 30.1% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.11%	—	×0.680	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.20%	—	×1.250	17.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.36 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 12 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.14 (+0.87)K% 27.5% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.740	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.180	13.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.899	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Orioles Orange · 28 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.97 (+1.38)K% 36.4% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.680	24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.40%	—	×1.250	15.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.992	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Esteban Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.99	22.3%	7.1%	304	-0.82	—	—	—
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.81	21.3%	8.0%	253	-0.15	3.82	323	91
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	82
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	81
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	80
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	80
Marlon Nieves R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	19	SP	5.63	17.9%	20.0%	2.8%	.300	4.19	18.6%	1.2%	134	-1.44	3.82	187	80
Justin Lange R 2022 · 5.00 FIP	20	SP	5.00	20.2%	21.8%	1.5%	.303	4.73	24.7%	5.9%	85	-0.27	4.55	144	80
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	79
Noble Meyer R 2024 · 5.82 FIP	19	SP	5.82	20.0%	20.0%	3.4%	.198	4.31	18.7%	3.9%	65	-1.51	4.31	139	78
Moises Nova R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.05	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.56	3.42	219	78
Marlon De La Cruz R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	18	SP	5.31	17.1%	20.9%	1.8%	.306	5.34	13.8%	-6.9%	101	+0.03	4.35	140	77
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	76
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	76
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	75
Matthew Thompson R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP	5.03	17.6%	13.8%	3.0%	.376	5.27	18.2%	3.8%	339	+0.24	5.03	411	75
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	75
Jeter Martinez R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	18	SP	4.72	18.1%	21.1%	0.9%	.282	4.90	15.6%	-0.4%	129	+0.18	3.52	216	75
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	74
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	100	23.9%	13.4%	1.09	4.74
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Oliver Pérez ('22)	7.3	86	23.9%	11.8%	1.22	4.37
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*