Esteban Mejia
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
+0.4
WAR
Age 19
RHP
6'3" / 175 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2032
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%12.4%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 10 | 10 | 28 | 121 | 44 | 15 | 0 | 24.7% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 3.25 | 2.97 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 14 | 14 | 52 | 227 | 67 | 31 | 0 | 20.4% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 2.94 | 3.51 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 2 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.20 | — | — |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 43 | 20 | 5 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 19 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 49 | 210 | 50 | 24 | 5 | 23.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | BAL | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 46 | 19 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 49 | 19 | 5 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 53 | 19 | 6 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 57 | 19 | 6 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 3.73 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 61 | 19 | 6 | 26.3% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 3.73 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 61 | 19 | 6 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 3.66 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 61 | 19 | 6 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.68 | 3.67 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 60 | 18 | 6 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.69 | 3.69 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 58 | 18 | 6 | 26.4% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 56 | 18 | 6 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 54 | 17 | 6 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 51 | 17 | 6 | 25.7% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 26 | 85 | 373 | 83 | 61 | 0 | 22.3% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 3.29 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 61 | 200 | 881 | 196 | 144 | 0 | 22.3% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 3.29 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Esteban Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.10 | 24.0% | 14.7% | 145 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Danny Dopico R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 89 |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 89 |
| Matt Walker R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.21 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 178 | +0.54 | 2.42 | 211 | 88 |
| Layonel Ovalles R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.56 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.59 | 17.4% | 3.0% | 146 | +1.03 | 2.60 | 227 | 87 |
| Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.09 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .327 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.20 | 104 | 85 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2028 · 3.15 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.15 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +1.74 | 3.15 | 395 | 85 |
| Alejandro Hidalgo R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.05 | 24.5% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .326 | 5.92 | 18.3% | 1.5% | 143 | +1.87 | 4.05 | 209 | 85 |
| Felix Castro R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.50 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .295 | 4.96 | 14.9% | -1.8% | 97 | +1.46 | 3.50 | 144 | 84 |
| Amilcar Chirinos R 2027 · 3.24 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.24 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .349 | 4.05 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 147 | +0.81 | 2.90 | 178 | 84 |
| Osiris German R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.14 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.12 | 3.11 | 187 | 84 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 84 |
| Scott Williams R 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 83 |
| Brandon White R 2028 · 3.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.14 | 25.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.52 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 166 | +0.38 | 3.14 | 221 | 83 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2029 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 83 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.47 | 3.32 | 206 | 83 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 83 |
| Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.71 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.77 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 157 | +1.06 | 3.71 | 181 | 83 |
| Breidy Encarnación R 2025 · 3.10 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.10 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .239 | 5.24 | 18.1% | 3.6% | 50 | +2.14 | 3.10 | 164 | 83 |
| Alexander Cornielle R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.22 | 24.1% | 14.2% | 2.5% | .329 | 4.39 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 312 | +0.17 | 3.88 | 482 | 83 |
| Joey Gerber R 2029 · 3.01 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.01 | 26.6% | 10.5% | 1.5% | .316 | 4.15 | 9.7% | 1.6% | 16 | +1.14 | 3.01 | 137 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | -$0.3M |
| Totals | $12M | $22M | +$10M | ||