Noble Meyer — OGILVIE

Noble Meyer P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%19.1%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%1.6%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	11	51	15	7	0	100%	2.2	29.4%	13.7%	15.7%	0.0%	4.09	2.35	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	11	51	15	7	0	100%	2.2	29.4%	13.7%	15.7%	0.0%	4.09	2.35	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	11	51	15	7	0	100%	2.2	29.4%	13.7%	15.7%	0.0%	4.09	2.28	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	95%	3.9	20.0%	20.0%	0.1%	3.4%	4.01	5.82	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	95%	3.9	20.0%	20.0%	0.1%	3.4%	4.01	5.82	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	95%	3.9	26.6%	17.2%	9.4%	2.5%	4.01	4.44	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	100%	3.4	18.7%	14.8%	4.0%	1.7%	4.41	4.31	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	100%	3.4	18.7%	14.8%	4.0%	1.7%	4.41	4.31	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	100%	3.4	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	1.4%	4.41	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	3	4	24	5	8	0	100%	1.3	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	3	4	24	5	8	0	100%	1.3	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	MIA	3	3	4	24	5	8	0	100%	1.3	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	6.75	5.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	70	295	61	44	8	100%	5.4	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	2.8%	5.29	5.15	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	72	306	67	41	8	100%	5.6	21.7%	13.5%	8.3%	2.7%	5.01	4.86	+0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	74	314	70	39	9	100%	5.7	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	2.7%	4.79	4.66	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	75	318	72	38	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	2.7%	4.64	4.55	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	75	318	73	37	9	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	2.7%	4.57	4.52	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	74	313	72	37	9	100%	6.2	23.0%	11.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.57	4.56	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	72	304	69	36	9	100%	6.0	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.62	4.65	+0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	69	290	66	36	9	100%	6.2	22.6%	12.2%	10.3%	3.0%	4.71	4.78	+0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	65	273	61	34	9	100%	5.9	22.2%	12.5%	9.7%	3.2%	4.86	4.96	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	34	144	30	22	4	100%	5.7	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	2.6%	5.21	5.07	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	53	224	49	30	6	100%	5.3	21.7%	13.5%	8.3%	2.6%	4.93	4.78	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	62	262	59	33	7	100%	5.6	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	2.6%	4.72	4.59	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	66	279	63	33	7	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	2.6%	4.57	4.48	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	69	291	67	34	8	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	2.6%	4.50	4.45	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	69	291	67	35	8	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.9%	11.1%	2.6%	4.49	4.48	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	67	283	65	34	8	100%	6.1	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.54	4.57	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	65	274	62	34	8	100%	5.9	22.6%	12.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.63	4.70	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	61	258	57	32	8	100%	6.1	22.2%	12.5%	9.7%	3.1%	4.77	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	546	2307	519	286	62	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.26	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	105	23	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		46	45	154	691	140	123	16	98%	3.4	20.2%	17.7%	2.5%	2.3%	4.26	4.91	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	58	200	895	181	159	21	98%	3.4	20.2%	17.7%	2.5%	2.3%	4.26	4.91	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noble Meyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	19.1%	17.5%	2.8%	—	4.88	21.6%	8.0%	217	-0.74	—	—	—
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	91
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	86
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	84
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	83
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	82
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	82
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	81
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	81
Mason Denaburg R 2022 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.3%	16.4%	2.1%	.278	5.84	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+0.89	4.48	151	81
Andre Jackson R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	17.7%	17.3%	1.1%	.342	4.57	22.0%	10.5%	216	+0.13	3.84	459	80
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	79
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	79
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.86	438	79
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.09	4.84
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04