Noble Meyer

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#934ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	19	18	74	4.01	4.44	26.6%	17.2%	—	K 20.0% · BB 20.0% · FIP 5.82
2025	20	A+MIA	19	19	65	4.41	3.44	24.3%	12.8%	—	K 18.7% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.31
2026	21	AMIA	3	3	4	6.75	6.60	20.8%	33.3%	—	K 20.8% · BB 33.3% · FIP 5.56
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.36	5.36	20.4%	16.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIA	5	5	26	4.99	4.87	21.9%	13.9%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIA	7	7	37	4.75	4.62	22.7%	12.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsKohl Franklin (age 22) · Peyton Pallette (age 22) · Dane Acker (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%20.4%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	11	51	15	7	0	100%	2.2	29.4%	13.7%	15.7%	0.0%	4.09	2.35	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	11	51	15	7	0	100%	2.2	29.4%	13.7%	15.7%	0.0%	4.09	2.28	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	95%	3.9	20.0%	20.0%	0.1%	3.4%	4.01	5.82	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	95%	3.9	20.0%	20.0%	0.1%	3.4%	4.01	5.82	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	95%	3.9	26.6%	17.2%	9.4%	2.5%	4.01	4.44	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	100%	3.4	18.7%	14.8%	4.0%	1.7%	4.41	4.31	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	100%	3.4	18.7%	14.8%	4.0%	1.7%	4.41	4.31	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	100%	3.4	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	1.4%	4.41	3.44	—
2026	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	3	4	24	5	8	0	100%	1.3	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	6.75	5.56	—
2026	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	3	4	24	5	8	0	100%	1.3	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	6.75	5.56	—
2026	21	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	3	4	24	5	8	0	100%	1.3	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	6.75	6.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	16.0%	4.5%	2.9%	5.36	5.36	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	52	222	49	31	6	100%	5.2	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	2.8%	5.07	4.95	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	52	222	50	28	6	100%	5.8	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	2.8%	4.83	4.70	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	46	195	45	23	6	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.7%	11.5%	2.8%	4.66	4.55	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	46	195	46	23	6	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.52	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	45	190	44	22	5	100%	5.6	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.56	+0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	26	110	24	15	3	100%	5.2	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	2.7%	4.99	4.87	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	37	156	35	20	4	100%	5.3	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.62	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	38	160	37	19	4	100%	6.3	23.2%	11.7%	11.5%	2.7%	4.58	4.47	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	40	169	39	20	5	100%	5.7	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	2.7%	4.50	4.44	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	41	173	40	20	5	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	2.7%	4.49	4.48	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	181	764	176	93	21	100%	5.8	23.0%	12.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.64	4.18	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	194	103	23	100%	5.8	23.0%	12.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.64	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		46	45	154	691	140	123	16	98%	3.4	20.2%	17.7%	2.5%	2.3%	4.26	4.91	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	58	200	895	181	159	21	98%	3.4	20.2%	17.7%	2.5%	2.3%	4.26	4.91	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 4 IPFIP 5.56 → 6.78 (+1.22)K% 20.8% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.740	15.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	33.33%	—	×1.180	39.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.56 → 6.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 65 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.31 (+0.90)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.770	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.84%	—	×1.150	14.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.006	×1.250	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 40 IPFIP 5.22 → 6.64 (+1.42)K% 23.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.46%	—	×0.770	18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.88%	—	×1.150	20.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷0.935	×1.250	4.48%

Result: FIP 5.22 → 6.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 34 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.77 (+1.40)K% 30.5% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.50%	—	×0.740	22.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.31%	—	×1.180	19.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷0.888	×1.300	2.08%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 7 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.20 (+0.85)K% 26.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.47%	—	×0.740	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.180	13.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.924	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noble Meyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.74	22.6%	9.8%	151	-0.62	—	—	—
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	89
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	86
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	86
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	85
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	4.95	20.8%	4.6%	139	-0.20	4.42	301	83
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	82
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	80
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	80
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	80
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	202	79
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	79
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	79
Andre Jackson R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	17.7%	17.3%	1.1%	.342	4.57	22.0%	10.5%	216	+0.13	3.84	459	78
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	22.4%	13.0%	1.10	4.86
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35