Noble Meyer — OGILVIE

Noble Meyer P Beloit Sky Carp

+0.0 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2030

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.7%

IP68

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2030

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	5	11	51	15	7	0	—	—	—	4.09	—	—
2024	19	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	20.0%	20.0%	3.5%	4.01	5.85	-0.7
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	18.7%	14.8%	1.7%	4.41	4.30	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	MIA	12	12	68	288	62	37	8	21.4%	12.7%	2.8%	4.83	4.83	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	MIA	13	13	72	302	68	34	8	22.5%	11.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.53	+0.4
2028	23	MLB	MIA	14	14	74	314	73	32	9	23.3%	10.3%	2.7%	4.44	4.33	+0.6
2029	24	MLB	MIA	14	14	76	322	77	31	9	23.8%	9.7%	2.7%	4.29	4.20	+0.8
2030	25	MLB	MIA	14	14	77	326	79	31	9	24.2%	9.4%	2.7%	4.19	4.12	+0.9
2031	26	MLB	MIA	14	14	77	326	79	30	9	24.4%	9.3%	2.7%	4.13	4.09	+0.9
2032	27	MLB	MIA	14	14	77	323	79	30	9	24.4%	9.3%	2.7%	4.11	4.10	+0.9
2033	28	MLB	MIA	14	14	76	319	78	30	9	24.3%	9.4%	2.8%	4.12	4.13	+0.8
2034	29	MLB	MIA	13	13	74	312	75	30	9	24.2%	9.5%	2.8%	4.15	4.18	+0.7
2035	30	MLB	MIA	13	13	72	302	73	29	9	24.0%	9.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.24	+0.7
2036	31	MLB	MIA	13	13	69	292	69	28	9	23.8%	9.7%	2.9%	4.27	4.31	+0.6
2037	32	MLB	MIA	12	12	66	280	66	28	8	23.5%	9.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.40	+0.5
2038	33	MLB	MIA	12	12	63	267	62	27	8	23.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.44	4.50	+0.3
2039	34	MLB	MIA	11	11	60	254	58	26	8	22.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			43	42	150	667	135	115	16	20.2%	17.2%	2.4%	4.19	4.90	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			57	56	200	887	180	153	21	20.2%	17.2%	2.4%	4.19	4.90	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noble Meyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	21.4%	12.7%	2.8%	—	4.35	23.2%	12.8%	222	-0.48	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	93
Tyler Vogel R 2027 · 4.87 FIP	22	SW	4.87	23.4%	14.3%	3.5%	.305	4.25	18.8%	7.4%	82	-0.62	3.84	147	91
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	91
Alec Barger R 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	90
William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	90
Matt Keating R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	22	SW	4.37	23.3%	14.8%	2.5%	.346	4.44	22.2%	8.8%	118	+0.07	3.38	184	90
Frank German R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	89
Beck Way R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.77	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.24	2.40	395	89
Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	89
Jhonny Polanco R 2028 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	89
Luis Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SW	4.31	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.59	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.72	3.45	535	88
Jared Lyons R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	22	SW	4.46	20.1%	15.3%	2.0%	.345	3.71	19.8%	9.0%	115	-0.75	3.28	169	88
Tanner Jacobson R 2028 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.90	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.10	168	88
Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.50 FIP	22	SW	5.50	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.57	19.5%	8.6%	122	-0.93	4.45	198	88
Kohl Franklin R 2027 · 5.27 FIP	22	SW	5.27	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.64	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.37	5.27	174	88
Luis Ramirez R 2028 · 4.69 FIP	23	SW	4.69	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.73	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.96	3.73	104	87
Isaac Stebens R 2027 · 4.14 FIP	22	SW	4.14	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.16	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.02	4.14	102	87
Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	87
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	87
Gabriel Ponce R 2027 · 4.62 FIP	22	SW	4.62	24.4%	16.2%	2.8%	.328	4.58	22.6%	7.5%	110	-0.04	4.46	161	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.7	$4M	+$0.6M
Totals		$9M		$24M	+$14M