Noble Meyer — OGILVIE

Noble Meyer P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 48 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%19.1%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	MIX	2 levels	5	5	11	51	15	7	0	100%	2.2	29.4%	13.7%	15.7%	0.0%	4.09	2.35	—
2023	18	MIX	2 levels	5	5	11	51	15	7	0	100%	2.2	29.4%	13.7%	15.7%	0.0%	4.09	2.28	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	95%	3.9	20.0%	20.0%	0.1%	3.7%	4.01	5.99	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	19	18	74	320	85	55	8	95%	3.9	26.6%	17.2%	9.4%	2.5%	4.01	4.44	—
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	100%	3.4	18.7%	14.8%	4.0%	1.7%	4.41	4.30	—
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	65	296	72	38	4	100%	3.4	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	1.4%	4.41	3.44	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	3	4	24	5	8	0	100%	1.3	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	9	9	48	202	39	34	6	100%	5.3	19.1%	16.7%	2.4%	2.8%	5.54	5.54	-0.6
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	16.7%	2.4%	2.8%	5.50	5.50	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	52	226	44	42	6	—	—	19.3%	18.5%	0.8%	2.5%	5.63	5.11	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	MIA	9	9	50	212	44	31	6	100%	5.6	20.8%	14.5%	6.3%	2.8%	5.22	5.10	-0.3
2028	23	MLB	MIA	9	9	52	220	48	29	6	100%	5.8	21.7%	13.1%	8.7%	2.8%	4.95	4.81	-0.2
2029	24	MLB	MIA	10	10	53	225	50	27	6	100%	5.3	22.4%	12.1%	10.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.63	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	MIA	9	9	54	228	52	26	6	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	2.7%	4.61	4.52	+0.0
2031	26	MLB	MIA	9	9	54	228	52	26	6	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
2032	27	MLB	MIA	9	9	53	225	52	26	6	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2033	28	MLB	MIA	9	9	52	218	50	26	6	100%	5.7	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.62	-0.0
2034	29	MLB	MIA	8	8	49	209	47	25	6	100%	6.2	22.6%	12.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.75	-0.1
2027	22	MLB	MIA	5	5	25	106	22	15	3	100%	5.0	20.8%	14.5%	6.3%	2.7%	5.18	5.06	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	MIA	7	7	38	160	35	21	4	100%	5.4	21.7%	13.1%	8.7%	2.7%	4.91	4.77	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	MIA	8	8	44	186	42	23	5	100%	5.5	22.4%	12.1%	10.2%	2.7%	4.71	4.59	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	MIA	8	8	48	203	46	23	5	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	2.7%	4.57	4.48	+0.0
2031	26	MLB	MIA	8	8	49	207	48	24	6	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.50	4.46	+0.1
2032	27	MLB	MIA	8	8	49	207	48	24	6	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	2.7%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
2033	28	MLB	MIA	8	8	48	203	46	24	6	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	2.8%	4.55	4.58	-0.0
2034	29	MLB	MIA	8	8	47	198	45	24	6	100%	5.9	22.6%	12.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.64	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			60	60	349	1473	331	178	40	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.7%	4.65	4.23	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	190	102	23	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.7%	4.65	4.23	+2.7
Career	—			46	45	154	691	140	123	17	98%	3.4	20.2%	17.7%	2.5%	2.4%	4.26	4.99	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			60	58	200	895	181	159	22	98%	3.4	20.2%	17.7%	2.5%	2.4%	4.26	4.99	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noble Meyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	19.1%	16.7%	2.8%	—	4.84	21.6%	8.4%	156	-0.70	—	—	—
Alex McFarlane R 2027 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	4.02	20.5%	6.2%	108	-0.89	3.64	159	88
Kohl Franklin R 2027 · 5.37 FIP	22	SP	5.37	17.8%	14.6%	3.5%	.320	5.45	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.08	5.37	174	87
Ryan Harvey R 2027 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	85
Dane Acker R 2028 · 5.44 FIP	23	SP	5.44	19.3%	15.2%	3.7%	.284	4.44	20.3%	8.3%	215	-1.00	4.23	257	85
Steven Brooks R 2027 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.6%	17.9%	3.0%	.268	4.80	25.0%	9.8%	40	-0.81	4.80	103	85
Henry Williams R 2026 · 5.43 FIP	21	SP	5.43	16.5%	14.2%	3.5%	.271	4.77	16.7%	6.5%	293	-0.66	4.06	360	84
Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP	4.86	16.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.311	6.15	21.4%	4.1%	64	+1.29	4.16	109	83
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP	4.48	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.44	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.04	2.88	245	83
Nolan Perry R 2025 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.24	29.0%	19.3%	52	-1.64	3.24	136	82
Victor Mederos R 2026 · 5.03 FIP	21	SP	5.03	15.6%	14.0%	2.7%	.286	5.29	16.5%	5.4%	301	+0.26	4.19	360	82
Jacob Watters R 2027 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	18.3%	17.1%	1.8%	.319	4.54	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.16	3.96	165	82
Alonzo Tredwell R 2027 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP-	4.36	19.3%	17.4%	1.2%	.336	4.15	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.21	4.15	157	82
Jake Madden R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP	5.22	15.9%	15.2%	2.8%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.65	4.57	123	82
Peyton Pallette R 2027 · 5.97 FIP	22	SP	5.97	18.0%	15.1%	4.5%	.254	4.31	23.6%	11.6%	183	-1.66	3.80	255	82
J.P. Massey R 2028 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP	4.91	18.2%	16.0%	2.4%	.259	5.03	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.12	4.62	195	81
Jose Diaz R 2026 · 5.40 FIP	21	SP	5.40	16.5%	17.5%	2.7%	.357	4.96	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.44	3.95	189	81
Hyun-Seok Jang R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	21	SP	5.37	22.8%	21.6%	2.7%	.224	5.11	20.3%	8.7%	62	-0.26	5.11	127	81
Mason Denaburg R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.278	5.91	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+1.03	4.45	151	80
Jeter Martinez R 2025 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP	4.89	15.7%	15.9%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	209	80
Jared Lyons R 2027 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	20.1%	15.3%	1.9%	.345	3.85	19.6%	10.9%	164	-0.55	3.27	218	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	52	22.1%	12.7%	1.09	4.82
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Greg Holland ('21)	6	45	25.4%	12.3%	0.87	4.03
Brad Boxberger ('23)	8	43	27.1%	11.7%	1.17	3.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58