Will Bednar
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 246 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 109
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
K%29.0%
BB%18.6%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.8 | 20.0% | 3.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 1.29 | 1.83 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.8 | 20.0% | 3.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 1.29 | 1.81 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | 12 | 12 | 43 | 184 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 3.6 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.19 | 5.57 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | 12 | 12 | 43 | 184 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 3.6 | 27.7% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 3.8% | 4.19 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 4 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 75% | 2.7 | 30.6% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 4.22 | 2.32 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 4 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 75% | 2.7 | 30.6% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 4.22 | 2.26 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 13 | 54 | 252 | 76 | 47 | 9 | 41% | 1.7 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 6.00 | 6.28 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 13 | 54 | 252 | 76 | 47 | 9 | 41% | 1.7 | 30.2% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 6.00 | 5.06 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 52 | 247 | 84 | 39 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.0% | 17.8% | 11.2% | 0.7% | 5.68 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 52 | 247 | 84 | 39 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 34.0% | 15.8% | 18.2% | 0.8% | 5.68 | 2.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 23 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 48 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.4% | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 86 | 55 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 18.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 18.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 107 | 453 | 134 | 80 | 11 | — | — | 29.5% | 17.7% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.49 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 29.0% | 18.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 83 | 52 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 79 | 49 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SF | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 74 | 46 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 17.1% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 31 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 47 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SF | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 52 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 17.1% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 132 | 82 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 17.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.50 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 235 | 146 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 17.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 32 | 204 | 919 | 229 | 165 | 24 | 28% | 1.8 | 24.9% | 17.9% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 31 | 200 | 901 | 224 | 161 | 24 | 28% | 1.8 | 24.9% | 17.9% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Bednar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 29.0% | 18.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.86 | 27.9% | 10.6% | 200 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 27.2% | 20.0% | 1.6% | .331 | 4.52 | 22.4% | 3.4% | 50 | +0.32 | 4.20 | 311 | 80 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 77 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 77 |
| Fernando Baez R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 77 |
| Michael Stryffeler R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.35 | 30.4% | 17.3% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.75 | 19.4% | 1.1% | 33 | +0.40 | 2.43 | 140 | 77 |
| Sean Isaac R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 77 |
| Stevie Branche R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 25.6% | 19.1% | 1.2% | .274 | 5.82 | 19.8% | -0.7% | 28 | +1.79 | 3.25 | 162 | 76 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 75 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.51 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 4.6% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 142 | 74 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.60 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.38 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 158 | 74 |
| Eduard Santos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .248 | 2.04 | 31.1% | 18.7% | 16 | -1.99 | 2.04 | 138 | 74 |
| Zac Ryan R 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.80 | 25.4% | 15.3% | 1.7% | .266 | 6.12 | 22.4% | 6.6% | 31 | +2.32 | 3.74 | 184 | 73 |
| Justin Evans R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 1.5% | .323 | 4.80 | 16.4% | -7.9% | 14 | +1.07 | 3.73 | 105 | 73 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.63 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.54 | 2.53 | 233 | 73 |
| Matt Seelinger R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.59 | 28.8% | 18.3% | 4.7% | .312 | 4.54 | 24.8% | 12.2% | 116 | -1.05 | 3.06 | 349 | 73 |
| Austin Vernon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.1% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 261 | 73 |
| Colin McKee R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.10 | 26.6% | 15.7% | 2.3% | .171 | 4.67 | 25.9% | 10.3% | 53 | +0.57 | 4.10 | 148 | 73 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 172 | 73 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 72 |
| Kyle Wilcox R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 25.1% | 21.2% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.67 | 25.1% | -1.5% | 13 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 310 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 28.2% | 17.7% | 1.07 | 4.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |