Will Bednar — OGILVIE

Will Bednar P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 246 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%29.0%

BB%19.2%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2525

CMD5555

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	7	30	6	1	0	100%	1.8	20.0%	3.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.29	1.83	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	7	30	6	1	0	100%	1.8	20.0%	3.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.29	1.81	—
2022	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	12	12	43	184	51	22	7	100%	3.6	20.5%	14.1%	6.4%	4.7%	4.19	5.71	—
2022	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	12	12	43	184	51	22	7	100%	3.6	27.7%	12.0%	15.8%	3.8%	4.19	4.38	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	4	3	11	49	15	7	0	75%	2.7	30.6%	14.3%	16.3%	0.0%	4.22	2.32	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	4	3	11	49	15	7	0	75%	2.7	30.6%	14.3%	16.3%	0.0%	4.22	2.32	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	4	3	11	49	15	7	0	75%	2.7	30.6%	14.3%	16.3%	0.0%	4.22	2.26	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	13	54	252	76	47	9	41%	1.7	23.8%	23.1%	0.7%	4.3%	6.00	6.40	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	13	54	252	76	47	9	41%	1.7	23.8%	23.1%	0.7%	4.3%	6.00	6.40	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	13	54	252	76	47	9	41%	1.7	30.2%	18.7%	11.5%	3.6%	6.00	5.06	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	247	84	39	2	0%	1.4	29.0%	17.8%	11.2%	0.9%	5.68	3.38	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	247	84	39	2	0%	1.4	29.0%	17.8%	11.2%	0.9%	5.68	3.38	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	52	247	84	39	2	0%	1.4	34.0%	15.8%	18.2%	0.8%	5.68	2.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	36	1	60	262	72	36	5	3%	1.7	22.4%	14.4%	8.0%	2.2%	4.77	4.25	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	36	1	60	262	72	36	5	3%	1.7	22.4%	14.4%	8.0%	2.2%	4.77	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	SF	26	0	42	176	53	27	3	0%	1.6	30.1%	15.3%	14.8%	1.7%	3.67	3.44	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	SF	10	1	19	86	19	9	2	10%	1.9	22.1%	10.5%	11.6%	2.3%	7.23	3.84	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SF	6	0	6	25	7	5	1	0%	1.0	29.0%	19.2%	9.8%	2.6%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	66	287	79	41	6	—	—	27.6%	14.2%	13.4%	2.0%	4.79	4.31	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	69	291	83	53	8	0%	1.0	28.4%	18.2%	10.2%	2.7%	4.87	4.89	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	79	50	8	0%	1.0	27.9%	17.7%	10.2%	2.8%	4.89	4.93	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	270	74	47	8	0%	1.0	27.5%	17.5%	9.9%	3.0%	4.96	5.03	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	SF	25	0	26	110	31	20	3	0%	1.0	28.4%	18.2%	10.2%	2.7%	4.87	4.89	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	38	0	40	169	47	30	5	0%	1.1	27.9%	17.7%	10.2%	2.8%	4.89	4.93	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	43	0	45	190	52	33	6	0%	1.0	27.5%	17.5%	9.9%	3.0%	4.96	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	131	83	14	0%	1.0	27.8%	17.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.91	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	236	149	25	0%	1.1	27.8%	17.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.91	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		126	33	227	1024	249	174	27	26%	1.8	24.3%	17.0%	7.3%	2.7%	5.03	4.67	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	29	200	901	219	153	24	26%	1.8	24.3%	17.0%	7.3%	2.7%	5.03	4.67	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Bednar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	29.0%	19.2%	2.6%	—	4.95	27.9%	10.1%	200	+0.04	—	—	—
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	78
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	78
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	78
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	77
Michael Stryffeler R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	30.4%	17.3%	2.8%	.277	4.89	19.4%	1.1%	33	+0.65	2.43	140	77
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.73	18.6%	1.0%	28	+1.69	3.23	162	77
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	76
Christopher Troye R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	31.4%	18.2%	1.8%	.287	5.52	22.2%	2.8%	75	+1.76	3.42	158	76
Matt Seelinger R 2021 · 5.37 FIP	26	SU	5.37	28.8%	18.3%	4.3%	.312	4.58	24.8%	12.2%	116	-0.79	3.13	368	76
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	75
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	75
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	74
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	74
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	74
Eric Orze R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	24.7%	13.6%	2.4%	.319	3.64	23.5%	14.1%	193	-0.42	3.42	351	74
Zac Ryan R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	25	SU	3.85	25.4%	15.3%	1.8%	.266	5.82	22.4%	6.6%	31	+1.97	3.83	184	74
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	73
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	73
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.39	19.5%	9.1%	108	-1.19	3.32	262	73
Colin McKee R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	25	SU	4.18	26.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.171	4.55	25.9%	10.3%	53	+0.37	4.18	148	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	28.2%	18.2%	1.08	4.91
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33