Will Bednar

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 246 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	32	13	54	6.00	5.06	30.2%	18.7%	—	K 23.8% · BB 23.1% · FIP 6.40
2025	25	MIX2 levels	38	0	52	5.68	2.62	34.0%	15.8%	—	K 29.0% · BB 17.8% · FIP 3.38
2026	26	MIX2 levels	38	2	64	4.50	3.57	27.5%	14.1%	—	K 22.7% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.19
2027PROJ	27	MLBSF	1	0	1	4.79	4.79	25.8%	16.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBSF	19	0	20	4.79	4.82	25.5%	15.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBSF	24	0	25	4.85	4.92	25.1%	15.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff65Control25Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDennis Sarfate (age 27) · Sean Isaac (age 25) · Grant Black (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%25.8%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2525

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	7	30	6	1	0	100%	1.8	20.0%	3.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.29	1.83	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	7	30	6	1	0	100%	1.8	20.0%	3.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.29	1.81	—
2022	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	12	12	43	184	51	22	7	100%	3.6	20.5%	14.1%	6.4%	4.7%	4.19	5.71	—
2022	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	12	12	43	184	51	22	7	100%	3.6	27.7%	12.0%	15.8%	3.8%	4.19	4.38	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	4	3	11	49	15	7	0	75%	2.7	30.6%	14.3%	16.3%	0.0%	4.22	2.32	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	4	3	11	49	15	7	0	75%	2.7	30.6%	14.3%	16.3%	0.0%	4.22	2.26	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	13	54	252	76	47	9	41%	1.7	23.8%	23.1%	0.7%	4.3%	6.00	6.40	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	13	54	252	76	47	9	41%	1.7	23.8%	23.1%	0.7%	4.3%	6.00	6.40	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	13	54	252	76	47	9	41%	1.7	30.2%	18.7%	11.5%	3.6%	6.00	5.06	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	247	84	39	2	0%	1.4	29.0%	17.8%	11.2%	0.9%	5.68	3.38	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	247	84	39	2	0%	1.4	29.0%	17.8%	11.2%	0.9%	5.68	3.38	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	52	247	84	39	2	0%	1.4	34.0%	15.8%	18.2%	0.8%	5.68	2.62	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	64	276	76	39	5	5%	1.7	22.7%	14.7%	8.0%	2.1%	4.50	4.19	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	64	276	76	39	5	5%	1.7	22.7%	14.7%	8.0%	2.1%	4.50	4.19	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	2	64	276	76	39	5	5%	1.7	27.5%	14.1%	13.4%	1.8%	4.50	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SF	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.8%	16.4%	9.4%	2.6%	4.79	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	51	0	54	228	58	36	6	0%	1.1	25.5%	15.9%	9.6%	2.7%	4.79	4.82	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	44	0	46	193	48	30	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	15.6%	9.5%	2.9%	4.85	4.92	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	19	0	20	84	21	13	2	0%	1.1	25.5%	15.9%	9.6%	2.7%	4.79	4.82	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	26	16	3	0%	1.0	25.1%	15.6%	9.5%	2.9%	4.85	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	0	46	193	49	30	5	0%	1.0	25.2%	15.7%	9.5%	2.8%	4.82	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	214	131	22	0%	1.1	25.2%	15.7%	9.5%	2.8%	4.82	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		128	34	231	1038	253	177	27	27%	1.8	24.4%	17.0%	7.3%	2.6%	4.95	4.65	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	29	200	899	219	153	24	27%	1.8	24.4%	17.0%	7.3%	2.6%	4.95	4.65	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 42 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.30 (+0.86)K% 30.1% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.11%	—	×0.810	24.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.34%	—	×1.100	16.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.70%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 22 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.01 (+0.23)K% 23.0% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.860	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×0.900	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 51 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.38 (+0.79)K% 35.7% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.74%	—	×0.810	28.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.17%	—	×1.100	17.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.183	×1.200	0.86%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 33 IPFIP 6.10 → 7.14 (+1.04)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.04%	—	×0.810	21.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.64%	—	×1.100	24.91%
HR / BF /BF	4.40%	÷1.062	×1.200	4.98%

Result: FIP 6.10 → 7.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 11 IPFIP 2.86 → 4.15 (+1.29)K% 38.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.770	29.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.150	17.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.010	×1.250	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 10 IPFIP 2.69 → 4.03 (+1.34)K% 31.7% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.71%	—	×0.740	23.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.180	8.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.959	×1.300	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Giants Orange · 11 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.60 (+1.28)K% 30.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.61%	—	×0.680	20.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.250	17.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.377	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 175).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASan Jose Giants · 43 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.71 (+1.35)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.72%	—	×0.740	20.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.96%	—	×1.180	14.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷1.063	×1.300	4.65%

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Bednar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	25.8%	16.4%	2.6%	—	4.87	25.3%	9.5%	100	+0.08	—	—	—
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	86
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	78
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	78
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	78
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	78
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	77
Ryan Jensen R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	26.6%	17.2%	1.6%	.331	4.35	21.9%	5.6%	50	+0.43	3.92	311	76
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	76
Jeff Johnson R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	27	SU	3.69	23.6%	15.6%	1.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	160	76
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	76
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	75
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	75
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	74
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	74
Antonio Menendez R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	25	SU	3.67	23.6%	14.2%	1.4%	.292	4.24	18.5%	5.6%	107	+0.57	2.92	250	74
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	73
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	73
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	73
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	72
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	57	25.5%	16.0%	1.04	4.81
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*