Preston Johnson

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 250 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+Aberdeen Iron…	25	4	55	4.72	2.94	30.8%	15.8%	—	K 23.7% · BB 18.2% · FIP 3.94
2025	25	MIX2 levels	26	2	49	6.10	4.56	25.6%	16.0%	—	K 21.0% · BB 16.2% · FIP 4.98
2026	26	AAMIN	24	18	89	4.36	4.02	29.0%	9.0%	—	K 23.5% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.08
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	1	0	1	4.97	4.97	22.9%	11.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIN	14	0	15	4.96	4.99	22.8%	11.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBMIN	19	0	20	5.01	5.07	22.6%	11.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsTaylor Grover (age 26) · Roberto Gómez (age 27) · Cameron Foster (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%22.9%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	4	55	247	76	39	2	16%	2.2	23.7%	18.2%	5.5%	1.0%	4.72	3.94	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	4	55	247	76	39	2	16%	2.2	23.7%	18.2%	5.5%	1.0%	4.72	3.94	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	4	55	247	76	39	2	16%	2.2	30.8%	15.8%	15.0%	0.8%	4.72	2.94	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	2	49	219	56	35	6	8%	1.9	21.0%	16.2%	4.8%	2.9%	6.10	4.98	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	2	49	219	56	35	6	8%	1.9	21.0%	16.2%	4.8%	2.9%	6.10	4.98	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	2	49	219	56	35	6	8%	1.9	25.6%	16.0%	9.6%	2.7%	6.10	4.56	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	24	18	89	365	106	33	15	75%	3.7	23.5%	9.9%	13.6%	4.9%	4.36	5.08	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	24	18	89	365	106	33	15	75%	3.7	23.5%	9.9%	13.6%	4.9%	4.36	5.08	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	24	18	89	365	106	33	15	75%	3.7	29.0%	9.0%	20.0%	4.1%	4.36	4.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	39	0	41	172	39	20	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.6%	4.96	4.99	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	33	0	35	148	33	17	5	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	3.7%	5.01	5.07	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	29	0	31	130	29	15	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.8%	10.4%	3.9%	5.12	5.21	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.6%	4.96	4.99	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	3.7%	5.01	5.07	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	20	0	21	89	20	10	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.8%	10.4%	3.9%	5.12	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	53	28	9	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.7%	5.04	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	100	32	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.7%	5.04	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		76	24	193	835	190	117	27	32%	2.5	22.8%	14.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.89	4.71	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	25	200	864	197	121	28	32%	2.5	22.8%	14.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.89	4.71	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 89 IPFIP 4.05 → 5.08 (+1.03)K% 29.0% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.04%	—	×0.810	23.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.04%	—	×1.100	9.95%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.93%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 38 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.89 (+0.56)K% 27.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.61%	—	×0.810	22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.27%	—	×1.100	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷1.248	×1.200	1.77%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 11 IPFIP 7.77 → 8.15 (+0.37)K% 19.6% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.64%	—	×0.860	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.79%	—	×0.900	24.11%
HR / BF /BF	5.36%	÷0.945	×1.100	6.23%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 7.77 → 8.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 55 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.94 (+0.99)K% 30.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.770	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×1.150	18.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.026	×1.250	0.99%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Preston Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	22.9%	11.7%	3.5%	—	5.08	22.6%	10.9%	107	+0.11	—	—	—
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	80
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	77
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	76
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	75
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	75
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	75
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	75
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	74
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	74
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	74
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	74
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	73
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	73
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	73
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	72
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	72
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	72
Cody Sedlock R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	27	SW	4.21	20.1%	13.0%	2.1%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	378	71
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	40	22.7%	11.7%	1.41	5.01
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*