Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 68 | 308 | 76 | 45 | 3 | 94% | 3.8 | 17.7% | 17.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 4.10 | 4.38 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 68 | 308 | 76 | 45 | 3 | 94% | 3.8 | 24.7% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 1.0% | 4.10 | 3.42 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 115 | 483 | 141 | 57 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 3.06 | 3.86 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 115 | 483 | 141 | 57 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 29.2% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 1.2% | 3.06 | 2.81 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 19 | 107 | 441 | 113 | 36 | 20 | 76% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 5.8% | 3.53 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 19 | 107 | 441 | 113 | 36 | 20 | 76% | 4.3 | 25.6% | 8.2% | 17.5% | 4.5% | 3.53 | 4.43 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 85 | 397 | 85 | 65 | 10 | 76% | 3.4 | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 85 | 397 | 85 | 65 | 10 | 76% | 3.4 | 21.4% | 16.4% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 4.64 | 4.92 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 11 | 100 | 420 | 101 | 45 | 16 | 31% | 2.8 | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 11 | 100 | 420 | 101 | 45 | 16 | 31% | 2.8 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 78 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 77 | 324 | 77 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 71 | 299 | 69 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 73 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 65 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 30 | 223 | 941 | 215 | 90 | 34 | 61% | 4.5 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.35 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 27 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 81 | 31 | 62% | 4.5 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 128 | 91 | 475 | 2049 | 428 | 277 | 65 | 71% | 3.7 | 20.9% | 13.5% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.02 | 4.78 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 38 | 200 | 863 | 180 | 117 | 27 | 71% | 3.7 | 20.9% | 13.5% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.02 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andre Jackson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 3.4% | — | 4.75 | 23.4% | 13.5% | 148 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 78 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 75 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.05 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53 | 507 | 71 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 69 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 69 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 68 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.31 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.45 | 2.75 | 902 | 68 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 67 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 67 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 66 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 66 |
| Burch Smith R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 66 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 65 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 65 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 65 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 65 |
| Chi Chi González R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.6% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 5.35 | 11.4% | 4.9% | 122 | +1.06 | 4.00 | 800 | 64 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 64 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.28 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 4.4% | .299 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 194 | -0.08 | 2.90 | 806 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 77 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 1.37 | 4.68 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |