Shane Panzini

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+KC	16	7	51	5.29	4.79	21.9%	11.9%	—	K 16.9% · BB 13.7% · FIP 6.02
2025	23	MIX3 levels	26	17	109	3.39	3.97	24.2%	10.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.59
2026	24	MIX2 levels	20	4	33	9.99	7.66	20.2%	17.9%	—	K 14.8% · BB 13.3% · FIP 8.48
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	1	1	6	5.74	5.74	17.0%	11.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBKC	6	6	37	5.57	5.55	18.0%	10.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBKC	8	8	45	5.48	5.49	18.3%	10.6%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Jake Bray (age 25) · Colby Morris (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%17.0%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	63	283	66	38	9	100%	3.7	17.3%	15.8%	1.4%	3.6%	5.00	5.64	—
2022	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	63	283	66	38	9	100%	3.7	23.3%	13.4%	9.9%	3.2%	5.00	4.67	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	434	105	56	11	100%	4.4	18.3%	15.2%	3.1%	2.4%	5.29	4.80	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	97	434	105	56	11	100%	4.4	24.2%	12.9%	11.3%	2.5%	5.29	4.14	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	4.8%	5.29	6.02	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	4.8%	5.29	6.02	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.29	4.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	19.4%	10.5%	9.0%	3.3%	3.39	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	19.4%	10.5%	9.0%	3.3%	3.39	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.0%	3.39	3.97	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	33	168	34	30	10	20%	1.7	14.8%	13.3%	1.5%	9.0%	9.99	8.48	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	33	168	34	30	10	20%	1.7	14.8%	13.3%	1.5%	9.0%	9.99	8.48	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	4	33	168	34	30	10	20%	1.7	20.2%	17.9%	2.4%	6.0%	9.99	7.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	6.0	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	4.2%	5.74	5.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	77	325	58	35	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	4.0%	5.57	5.55	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	69	290	53	31	12	100%	6.3	18.3%	10.6%	7.6%	4.0%	5.48	5.49	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	64	269	49	29	11	100%	5.8	18.3%	10.6%	7.7%	4.1%	5.47	5.51	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	59	248	45	27	10	100%	5.9	18.2%	10.8%	7.4%	4.2%	5.54	5.61	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	53	224	40	25	10	100%	5.9	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	4.4%	5.69	5.79	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	37	156	28	17	6	100%	6.2	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	4.0%	5.57	5.55	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	45	190	35	20	8	100%	5.6	18.3%	10.6%	7.6%	4.0%	5.48	5.49	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	49	207	38	22	8	100%	6.1	18.3%	10.6%	7.7%	4.1%	5.47	5.51	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	49	207	38	22	9	100%	6.1	18.2%	10.8%	7.4%	4.2%	5.54	5.61	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	46	194	35	22	9	100%	5.8	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	4.4%	5.69	5.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	227	956	173	103	40	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.8%	7.3%	4.1%	5.55	5.21	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	91	35	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.8%	7.3%	4.1%	5.55	5.21	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		101	67	353	1575	282	212	62	66%	3.5	17.9%	13.5%	4.4%	3.9%	5.09	5.45	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	38	200	892	159	120	35	66%	3.5	17.9%	13.5%	4.4%	3.9%	5.09	5.45	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 25 IPFIP 8.01 → 8.48 (+0.47)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.21%	—	×0.860	14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.75%	—	×0.900	13.28%
HR / BF /BF	8.20%	÷1.000	×1.100	9.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.01 → 8.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 9 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.80 (+0.78)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.26%	—	×0.810	22.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.09%	—	×1.100	28.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 57 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.25 (+0.73)K% 27.0% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.97%	—	×0.810	21.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.71%	—	×1.100	9.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.077	×1.200	3.24%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 29 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.49 (+0.75)K% 29.8% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.75%	—	×0.770	22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.150	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.983	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 23 IPFIP 7.36 → 7.67 (+0.31)K% 11.9% → 10.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.93%	—	×0.860	10.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.76%	—	×0.900	12.39%
HR / BF /BF	6.42%	÷1.003	×1.100	7.04%

Result: FIP 7.36 → 7.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 51 IPFIP 4.76 → 6.02 (+1.26)K% 21.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.92%	—	×0.770	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.87%	—	×1.150	13.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.65%	÷0.959	×1.250	4.76%

Result: FIP 4.76 → 6.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 91 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.80 (+1.05)K% 24.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.75%	—	×0.740	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.88%	—	×1.180	15.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.089	×1.300	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 6 IPFIP 7.54 → 9.06 (+1.52)K% 18.4% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.770	14.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×1.150	15.13%
HR / BF /BF	7.89%	÷1.033	×1.250	9.55%

Result: FIP 7.54 → 9.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Panzini (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.2%	—	5.52	18.2%	7.5%	210	-0.22	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	87
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	85
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	82
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	80
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	80
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	80
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	79
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	78
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	77
Cole Percival R 2024 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	17.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.296	3.58	20.5%	9.5%	36	-1.02	3.58	327	77
Ryan Long R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP-	5.29	15.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.239	4.87	18.7%	8.7%	159	-0.42	4.20	433	76
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	63	18.0%	10.8%	1.60	5.58
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*