Shane Panzini — OGILVIE

Shane Panzini P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%18.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5045

CTRL5045

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	63	283	66	38	9	100%	3.7	17.3%	15.8%	1.4%	3.6%	5.00	5.64	—
2022	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	63	283	66	38	9	100%	3.7	23.3%	13.4%	9.9%	3.2%	5.00	4.67	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	434	105	56	11	100%	4.4	18.3%	15.2%	3.1%	2.4%	5.29	4.80	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	434	105	56	11	100%	4.4	18.3%	15.2%	3.1%	2.4%	5.29	4.80	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	97	434	105	56	11	100%	4.4	24.2%	12.9%	11.3%	2.5%	5.29	4.14	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	4.8%	5.29	6.02	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	4.8%	5.29	6.02	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	7	51	219	48	26	8	44%	3.2	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.7%	5.29	4.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	3.39	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	3.39	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	17	109	471	114	47	14	65%	4.2	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.0%	3.39	3.97	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	19	4	31	159	31	28	10	21%	1.6	14.3%	13.3%	1.0%	9.0%	10.63	8.52	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	19	4	31	159	31	28	10	21%	1.6	14.3%	13.3%	1.0%	9.0%	10.63	8.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	KC	6	1	7	37	10	10	0	17%	1.1	27.0%	27.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.15	4.24	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	KC	13	3	25	122	21	18	10	23%	1.9	17.2%	14.8%	2.5%	8.2%	10.22	8.01	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	6	24	4	3	1	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.2%	6.9%	3.4%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	37	183	35	31	11	—	—	19.3%	16.8%	2.5%	5.9%	9.81	8.02	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	99	419	79	42	14	100%	5.8	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	3.4%	5.08	5.02	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	99	419	81	42	14	100%	5.8	19.4%	9.9%	9.4%	3.4%	4.98	4.94	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	98	413	80	41	14	100%	6.1	19.5%	9.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.95	4.95	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	95	401	78	40	14	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	3.5%	4.98	5.01	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	91	383	73	39	14	100%	6.0	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.6%	5.08	5.14	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	85	360	68	38	14	100%	6.1	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	3.8%	5.23	5.32	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	48	203	38	21	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	3.1%	4.94	4.88	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	69	291	56	29	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	9.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.84	4.80	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	63	32	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.9%	9.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.81	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	81	342	66	34	11	100%	5.8	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.87	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	80	338	65	34	11	100%	6.2	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.4%	4.93	4.99	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	61	34	12	100%	5.9	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	3.5%	5.07	5.16	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	72	433	1826	351	184	60	99%	5.9	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	3.3%	4.90	4.55	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	844	162	85	28	99%	5.9	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	3.3%	4.90	4.55	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		100	67	351	1566	279	211	61	67%	3.5	17.8%	13.5%	4.3%	3.9%	5.12	5.44	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	38	200	891	159	120	35	67%	3.5	17.8%	13.5%	4.3%	3.9%	5.12	5.44	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Panzini (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	18.1%	11.2%	3.4%	—	4.97	19.2%	9.3%	296	-0.29	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	89
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	87
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	85
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	84
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	84
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	83
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	82
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	82
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	81
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	81
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	80
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	91	19.1%	10.2%	1.35	5.07
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10