Shane Panzini
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
+0.1
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2029
ERA5.08
FIP5.08
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%9.0%
IP90
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 17 | 17 | 63 | 283 | 66 | 38 | 9 | 17.3% | 15.8% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.70 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 22 | 22 | 97 | 434 | 105 | 56 | 11 | 18.3% | 15.2% | 2.5% | 5.29 | 4.82 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 16 | 7 | 51 | 219 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 16.9% | 13.7% | 4.8% | 5.29 | 6.03 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 26 | 17 | 109 | 471 | 114 | 47 | 14 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 3.39 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 5 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 11.05 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 76 | 42 | 13 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 97 | 416 | 86 | 47 | 15 | 20.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 5.53 | 4.70 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 90 | 44 | 15 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 97 | 46 | 16 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 101 | 47 | 16 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 113 | 479 | 101 | 47 | 16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 98 | 46 | 16 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 94 | 45 | 16 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 90 | 44 | 16 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 85 | 43 | 15 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 80 | 42 | 15 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.16 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 75 | 41 | 15 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 69 | 39 | 14 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.32 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 70 | 35 | 14 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 63 | 327 | 1444 | 267 | 197 | 49 | 18.5% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 38 | 200 | 882 | 163 | 120 | 30 | 18.5% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 5.13 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Panzini (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.4% | — | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 326 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 93 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 92 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 92 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 92 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 91 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 91 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 90 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 89 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 89 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 89 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 89 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 89 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 88 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 88 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.28 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.42 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.86 | 3.98 | 481 | 88 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 87 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 87 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.31 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 5.24 | 18.5% | 3.9% | 104 | -0.07 | 4.38 | 355 | 87 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 87 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $7M | $15M | +$8M | ||