Marlon Nieves — OGILVIE

Marlon Nieves P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%20.1%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	9	21	104	17	21	1	82%	1.9	11.1%	25.2%	-14.1%	1.0%	6.43	5.92	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	9	21	104	17	21	1	82%	1.9	11.1%	25.2%	-14.1%	1.0%	6.43	5.92	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	11	9	21	104	17	21	1	82%	1.9	16.3%	20.2%	-3.8%	1.0%	6.43	5.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	17.9%	20.0%	-2.0%	2.8%	4.78	5.63	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	17.9%	20.0%	-2.0%	2.8%	4.78	5.63	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	26.4%	16.0%	10.4%	2.1%	4.78	4.10	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	18.9%	15.3%	3.6%	0.7%	2.79	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	18.9%	15.3%	3.6%	0.7%	2.79	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	26.9%	12.6%	14.3%	0.6%	2.79	2.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	16	14	53	248	62	41	2	88%	3.3	18.2%	20.9%	-2.7%	1.1%	5.09	4.82	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	16	14	53	248	62	41	2	88%	3.3	18.2%	20.9%	-2.7%	1.1%	5.09	4.82	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	LAD	2	2	3	16	5	0	0	100%	1.5	31.2%	0.0%	31.2%	0.0%	3.00	0.46	—
2026	21	A RAW	LAD	14	12	50	232	57	41	2	86%	3.6	24.6%	17.7%	6.9%	0.9%	5.22	3.74	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	LAD	1	1	5	23	5	4	1	100%	5.3	20.1%	17.1%	2.9%	2.7%	5.44	5.44	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	58	271	67	45	3	—	—	24.6%	16.6%	8.0%	1.0%	5.13	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	79	335	72	50	9	100%	5.0	21.5%	14.8%	6.7%	2.7%	5.14	5.01	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	82	348	78	46	9	100%	5.5	22.4%	13.3%	9.1%	2.7%	4.88	4.73	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	84	357	82	44	9	100%	5.6	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	2.6%	4.67	4.55	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	86	361	84	42	10	100%	5.7	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.6%	4.53	4.44	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	86	361	85	42	10	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	2.6%	4.46	4.42	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	84	356	83	41	10	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	2.7%	4.46	4.46	+0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	82	345	80	41	10	100%	5.8	23.3%	11.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.54	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	78	330	83	37	10	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.2%	13.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.40	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	73	310	77	36	10	100%	6.1	24.7%	11.5%	13.2%	3.1%	4.52	4.58	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	68	289	70	34	10	100%	6.2	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	3.4%	4.68	4.78	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	39	165	35	24	5	100%	4.9	21.5%	14.8%	6.7%	2.8%	5.20	5.07	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	60	253	57	34	7	100%	5.5	22.4%	13.3%	9.1%	2.8%	4.94	4.79	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	70	296	68	36	8	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	2.8%	4.73	4.61	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	76	321	75	37	9	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.8%	4.59	4.50	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	78	329	77	38	9	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.52	4.48	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	78	329	77	38	9	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.52	4.52	+0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	77	325	76	38	9	100%	5.9	23.3%	11.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.61	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	74	312	78	35	10	100%	6.2	25.1%	11.2%	13.8%	3.1%	4.51	4.47	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	70	296	73	34	10	100%	5.8	24.7%	11.5%	13.2%	3.3%	4.59	4.65	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	65	274	67	33	10	100%	5.9	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	3.5%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	118	686	2899	682	347	85	100%	5.8	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.66	4.25	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	101	25	100%	5.8	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.66	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		58	50	190	846	149	160	10	86%	3.3	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	1.2%	4.17	4.68	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	53	200	891	156	169	11	86%	3.3	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	1.2%	4.17	4.68	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marlon Nieves (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	20.1%	17.1%	2.7%	—	4.76	22.3%	8.8%	246	-0.68	—	—	—
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	88
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	87
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	85
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	85
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	84
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	84
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	84
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	82
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	82
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	81
Andre Jackson R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	17.7%	17.3%	1.1%	.342	4.57	22.0%	10.5%	216	+0.13	3.84	459	81
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.86	438	80
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	80
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	80
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	80
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	78	23.2%	12.5%	1.08	4.68
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70