Marlon Nieves

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#991ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	11	11	32	4.78	4.10	26.4%	16.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 20.0% · FIP 5.63
2025	20	MIX2 levels	20	16	84	2.79	2.74	26.9%	12.6%	—	K 18.9% · BB 15.3% · FIP 3.82
2026	21	MIX2 levels	16	14	53	5.09	3.57	25.0%	16.5%	—	K 18.2% · BB 20.9% · FIP 4.82
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAD	—	—	0	5.71	5.71	19.5%	19.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAD	5	5	29	5.44	5.32	20.7%	16.4%	0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAD	7	7	41	5.16	5.02	21.5%	14.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 87%

CompsHunter Parks (age 22) · Marco Jimenez (age 22) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%19.5%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	9	21	104	17	21	1	82%	1.9	11.1%	25.2%	-14.1%	1.0%	6.43	5.92	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	11	9	21	104	17	21	1	82%	1.9	16.3%	20.2%	-3.8%	1.0%	6.43	5.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	17.9%	20.0%	-2.0%	2.8%	4.78	5.63	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	17.9%	20.0%	-2.0%	2.8%	4.78	5.63	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	26.4%	16.0%	10.4%	2.1%	4.78	4.10	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	18.9%	15.3%	3.6%	0.7%	2.79	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	18.9%	15.3%	3.6%	0.7%	2.79	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	26.9%	12.6%	14.3%	0.6%	2.79	2.74	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	53	248	62	41	2	88%	3.3	18.2%	20.9%	-2.7%	1.1%	5.09	4.82	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	53	248	62	41	2	88%	3.3	18.2%	20.9%	-2.7%	1.1%	5.09	4.82	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	53	248	62	41	2	88%	3.3	25.0%	16.5%	8.5%	0.8%	5.09	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.5%	19.1%	0.4%	2.7%	5.71	5.71	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	58	246	51	40	7	100%	5.3	20.7%	16.4%	4.4%	2.6%	5.38	5.26	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	58	246	53	36	6	100%	5.8	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	2.6%	5.10	4.96	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	53	223	49	30	6	100%	5.9	21.9%	13.3%	8.6%	2.6%	4.89	4.77	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	53	222	49	29	6	100%	5.8	22.1%	13.1%	9.0%	2.7%	4.79	4.74	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	51	216	48	29	6	100%	5.7	22.1%	13.2%	8.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.78	+0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	53	224	54	28	6	100%	5.9	23.9%	12.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.59	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	49	207	49	26	6	100%	6.1	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.0%	4.70	4.72	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	7	7	44	187	44	25	6	100%	6.3	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.82	4.90	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	29	122	25	20	3	100%	5.8	20.7%	16.4%	4.4%	2.8%	5.44	5.32	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	41	173	37	25	5	100%	5.9	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	2.8%	5.16	5.02	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	43	182	40	24	5	100%	6.1	21.9%	13.3%	8.6%	2.8%	4.95	4.83	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	43	26	5	100%	5.8	22.1%	13.1%	9.0%	2.8%	4.85	4.80	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	43	26	5	100%	5.8	22.1%	13.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.84	4.84	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	49	207	50	26	6	100%	6.1	23.9%	12.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.66	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	46	25	6	100%	5.8	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.79	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	42	177	41	23	6	100%	6.0	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	3.3%	4.89	4.97	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	58	340	1437	324	194	42	100%	5.9	22.5%	13.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.93	4.50	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	114	25	100%	5.9	22.5%	13.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.93	4.50	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		58	50	190	846	149	160	10	86%	3.3	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	1.2%	4.17	4.68	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	53	200	891	156	169	11	86%	3.3	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	1.2%	4.17	4.68	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 50 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.82 (+1.08)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.57%	—	×0.740	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.67%	—	×1.180	20.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 47 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.75 (+1.19)K% 27.8% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.80%	—	×0.680	18.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.250	15.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.49%	÷1.187	×1.400	0.58%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 37 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.93 (+0.95)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.52%	—	×0.740	18.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.10%	—	×1.180	15.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷1.055	×1.300	0.85%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL LAD Bautista · 32 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.63 (+1.59)K% 26.4% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.39%	—	×0.680	17.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.97%	—	×1.250	19.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.059	×1.400	2.75%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL LAD Bautista · 21 IPFIP 4.81 → 5.92 (+1.11)K% 16.3% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.35%	—	×0.680	11.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.19%	—	×1.250	25.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷1.319	×1.400	1.02%

Result: FIP 4.81 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marlon Nieves (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	5.00	21.4%	6.6%	169	-0.71	—	—	—
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	4.95	20.8%	4.6%	139	-0.20	4.42	301	85
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	84
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	80
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	79
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	79
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	79
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	78
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	78
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	52	22.0%	14.3%	1.07	4.99
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*