Marlon Nieves — OGILVIE

Marlon Nieves P Ontario Tower Buzzers

+0.5 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.7 · 2031

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.0%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.8%

IP84

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.7peak

2031

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	11	9	21	104	17	21	1	11.1%	25.2%	0.9%	6.43	5.83	-0.2
2024	19	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	17.9%	20.0%	2.7%	4.78	5.57	-0.2
2025	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	18.9%	15.3%	0.7%	2.79	3.80	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Ontario Tower Buzzers	1	1	6	19	6	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	LAD	15	15	84	355	78	40	10	22.0%	11.3%	2.7%	4.53	4.53	+0.6
2026 Total	21	MLB	LAD	—	—	90	374	84	41	10	22.5%	11.0%	2.6%	4.23	4.23	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	LAD	20	20	110	465	107	47	12	22.9%	10.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.29	+1.3
2028	23	MLB	LAD	24	24	134	567	134	53	15	23.6%	9.3%	2.7%	4.22	4.13	+1.8
2029	24	MLB	LAD	28	28	154	649	156	58	17	24.1%	8.9%	2.6%	4.11	4.03	+2.2
2030	25	MLB	LAD	30	30	168	708	173	61	19	24.4%	8.7%	2.6%	4.02	3.97	+2.5
2031	26	MLB	LAD	32	32	175	737	181	64	19	24.6%	8.6%	2.6%	3.97	3.94	+2.7
2032	27	MLB	LAD	32	32	177	749	184	65	20	24.6%	8.7%	2.7%	3.96	3.95	+2.7
2033	28	MLB	LAD	32	32	175	737	181	64	20	24.6%	8.7%	2.7%	3.97	3.98	+2.6
2034	29	MLB	LAD	31	31	171	721	176	63	20	24.4%	8.8%	2.7%	4.00	4.03	+2.5
2035	30	MLB	LAD	30	30	166	699	169	62	19	24.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.05	4.09	+2.3
2036	31	MLB	LAD	29	29	160	675	162	61	19	24.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.12	4.16	+2.1
2037	32	MLB	LAD	28	28	153	648	154	59	19	23.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.20	4.25	+1.8
2038	33	MLB	LAD	27	27	146	619	145	58	19	23.4%	9.3%	3.0%	4.29	4.35	+1.6
2039	34	MLB	LAD	25	25	139	588	135	56	18	23.1%	9.5%	3.1%	4.39	4.46	+1.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			43	37	143	617	110	110	7	17.8%	17.8%	1.1%	3.65	4.48	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—			60	52	200	863	154	154	10	17.8%	17.8%	1.1%	3.65	4.48	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marlon Nieves (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	22.0%	11.3%	2.7%	—	4.14	23.6%	14.2%	398	-0.39	—	—	—
CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	92
Cade Smith R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	4.20	20.3%	6.5%	33	+0.34	3.86	118	92
Brandon Young R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP-	4.11	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.57	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.54	3.13	319	90
Logan Hofmann R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP-	4.51	22.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.239	6.75	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.24	4.51	129	90
Nolan DeVos R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	89
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	89
Corey Black R 2028 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	88
Zach Messinger R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.34	18.8%	7.3%	314	+0.35	3.71	397	88
Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	88
Will Sanders R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	88
Bryce Conley R 2028 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	87
Jordan Foley R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.02	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.21	305	87
David Perez R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.20	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.21	3.99	151	87
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	87
Trace Bright R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	26.3%	14.7%	2.7%	.297	4.47	19.0%	3.7%	211	+0.23	4.24	311	87
Jackson Nezuh R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	18.6%	9.7%	72	+0.50	3.90	193	87
Griffin Canning R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP-	3.70	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.13	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.43	3.65	705	87
Luke Russo R 2028 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	86
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	86
Mason Hickman R 2027 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.7	$25M	+$24M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.7	$26M	+$25M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.6	$26M	+$25M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.5	$25M	+$21M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.3	$24M	+$17M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$14M		$126M	+$111M