Marlon Nieves
P
Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137127vR 118
ERA5.22
FIP5.22
K%20.1%
BB%15.4%
K-BB%4.7%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 11 | 9 | 21 | 104 | 17 | 21 | 1 | 82% | 1.9 | 11.1% | 25.2% | -14.1% | 0.8% | 6.43 | 5.81 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 11 | 9 | 21 | 104 | 17 | 21 | 1 | 82% | 1.9 | 16.3% | 20.2% | -3.8% | 1.0% | 6.43 | 5.10 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 11 | 11 | 32 | 144 | 38 | 23 | 3 | 100% | 2.9 | 17.9% | 20.0% | -2.0% | 2.6% | 4.78 | 5.55 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 11 | 11 | 32 | 144 | 38 | 23 | 3 | 100% | 2.9 | 26.4% | 16.0% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 4.78 | 4.10 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 16 | 84 | 350 | 94 | 44 | 2 | 80% | 4.2 | 18.9% | 15.3% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 2.79 | 3.79 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 16 | 84 | 350 | 94 | 44 | 2 | 80% | 4.2 | 26.9% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 0.6% | 2.79 | 2.74 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | 7 | 7 | 21 | 92 | 22 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 16.6% | 18.6% | -2.1% | 1.7% | 4.71 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 59 | 248 | 50 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.1% | 15.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 5.22 | 5.22 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.1% | 15.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 5.18 | 5.18 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 80 | 340 | 72 | 50 | 8 | — | — | 21.1% | 14.7% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 5.09 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 56 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.5% | 13.5% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 60 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.61 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 64 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 65 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 66 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 276 | 65 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 13.5% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.69 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 58 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 61 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 61 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 55 | 311 | 1314 | 302 | 152 | 34 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.04 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 98 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 43 | 158 | 690 | 119 | 126 | 8 | 88% | 3.2 | 17.2% | 18.2% | -1.0% | 1.2% | 3.93 | 4.62 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 54 | 200 | 873 | 150 | 159 | 11 | 88% | 3.2 | 17.2% | 18.2% | -1.0% | 1.2% | 3.93 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marlon Nieves (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.22 | 20.1% | 15.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.63 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 191 | -0.59 | — | — | — |
| Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.48 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.44 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 148 | -0.04 | 2.88 | 245 | 90 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 87 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 87 |
| Jared Lyons R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 86 |
| Kohl Franklin R 2027 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.37 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .320 | 5.45 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 105 | +0.08 | 5.37 | 174 | 86 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 86 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 84 |
| Alex McFarlane R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | .344 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.89 | 3.64 | 159 | 84 |
| Alonzo Tredwell R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.3% | 17.4% | 1.2% | .336 | 4.15 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 100 | -0.21 | 4.15 | 157 | 84 |
| Henry Williams R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.43 | 16.5% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .271 | 4.77 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 293 | -0.66 | 4.06 | 360 | 84 |
| Noble Meyer R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.30 | 18.7% | 14.8% | 1.7% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 139 | 84 |
| J.P. Massey R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 84 |
| Jacob Watters R 2027 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 18.3% | 17.1% | 1.8% | .319 | 4.54 | 17.0% | 5.1% | 81 | -0.16 | 3.96 | 165 | 82 |
| Christian Roa R 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 82 |
| Levi Wells R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 132 | -0.47 | 3.70 | 192 | 81 |
| Beck Way R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.53 | 23.1% | 16.5% | 2.4% | .250 | 4.90 | 19.8% | 5.4% | 246 | +0.37 | 3.99 | 433 | 81 |
| Dane Acker R 2028 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 81 |
| Kolton Curtis R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.29 | 19.9% | 17.4% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 148 | 81 |
| Kamdyn Perry R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.18 | 18.6% | 12.8% | 3.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.18 | 123 | 81 |
| Blake Whitney R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.11 | 19.1% | 16.1% | 1.1% | .338 | 6.32 | 25.6% | 13.5% | 33 | +2.21 | 3.39 | 268 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 64 | 22.5% | 12.2% | 1.03 | 4.66 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |