Nolan Perry

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#47ETA2028MLB%12%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKTOR	9	4	38	7.28	3.05	28.3%	8.9%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.58
2024	20	ATOR	14	14	46	2.93	3.73	27.5%	18.8%	—	K 20.4% · BB 22.2% · FIP 4.88
2026	22	MIX3 levels	21	20	83	2.50	2.53	36.0%	9.8%	—	K 27.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	2	2	11	4.22	4.22	27.9%	11.8%	0.2
2028PROJ55% MLB	24	MLBTOR	10	10	57	4.13	4.06	27.9%	10.6%	0.9
2029PROJ76% MLB	25	MLBTOR	15	15	85	4.05	3.98	27.8%	9.9%	1.4

Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$5M2034Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 75%

CompsDavid Festa (age 23) · Brody McCullough (age 23) · Sam Benschoter (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%27.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%16.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$62M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$10M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$9M	+$7M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
Totals		$17M		$51M	+$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	4	38	180	51	16	4	44%	4.3	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	3.1%	7.28	4.58	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	9	4	38	180	51	16	4	44%	4.3	28.3%	8.9%	19.4%	2.2%	7.28	3.05	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	1.3%	2.93	4.88	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	1.3%	2.93	4.88	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	27.5%	18.8%	8.7%	1.0%	2.93	3.73	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	83	325	117	32	7	95%	3.9	27.9%	11.1%	16.8%	2.7%	2.50	3.62	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	83	325	117	32	7	95%	3.9	27.9%	11.1%	16.8%	2.7%	2.50	3.62	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	83	325	117	32	7	95%	3.9	36.0%	9.8%	26.2%	2.2%	2.50	2.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	2	2	11	46	13	5	1	100%	5.5	27.9%	11.8%	16.1%	2.9%	4.22	4.22	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	104	439	122	47	13	100%	5.5	27.9%	10.6%	17.3%	2.9%	4.13	4.06	+1.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	112	474	132	47	14	100%	5.9	27.8%	9.9%	17.9%	2.9%	4.05	3.98	+1.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	119	503	140	49	15	100%	6.0	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	2.9%	4.00	3.97	+2.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	116	491	135	48	14	100%	6.1	27.6%	9.8%	17.8%	3.0%	4.01	4.01	+1.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	112	471	129	47	14	100%	5.9	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	3.1%	4.06	4.10	+1.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	105	442	120	45	14	100%	6.2	27.2%	10.2%	17.0%	3.2%	4.16	4.23	+1.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	95	403	108	42	14	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.5%	16.4%	3.4%	4.31	4.40	+1.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	85	360	95	39	13	100%	6.1	26.5%	10.8%	15.6%	3.6%	4.49	4.61	+0.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	75	316	82	35	12	100%	6.2	26.0%	11.2%	14.8%	3.9%	4.70	4.83	+0.5
2037	33	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	65	273	70	32	11	100%	5.9	25.5%	11.7%	13.9%	4.2%	4.93	5.08	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	57	241	67	26	7	100%	5.7	27.9%	10.6%	17.3%	2.9%	4.13	4.06	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	85	359	100	36	10	100%	5.7	27.8%	9.9%	17.9%	2.9%	4.05	3.98	+1.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	102	431	120	42	12	100%	6.0	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	2.9%	4.00	3.97	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	105	443	122	43	13	100%	5.8	27.6%	9.8%	17.8%	3.0%	4.01	4.01	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	103	435	119	43	13	100%	6.1	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	3.1%	4.06	4.10	+1.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	97	410	112	42	13	100%	6.1	27.2%	10.2%	17.0%	3.2%	4.16	4.23	+1.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	91	384	103	40	13	100%	6.1	26.9%	10.5%	16.4%	3.4%	4.31	4.40	+1.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	91	37	12	100%	5.8	26.5%	10.8%	15.6%	3.6%	4.49	4.61	+0.7
2036	32	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	71	300	78	34	12	100%	5.9	26.0%	11.2%	14.8%	3.9%	4.70	4.83	+0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	61	258	66	30	11	100%	6.1	25.5%	11.7%	13.9%	4.2%	4.93	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	854	3604	978	373	117	100%	6.0	27.1%	10.4%	16.8%	3.3%	4.24	3.91	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	229	87	27	100%	6.0	27.1%	10.4%	16.8%	3.3%	4.24	3.91	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		44	38	167	712	168	102	17	86%	3.8	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	2.4%	3.72	4.23	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	46	200	853	201	122	20	86%	3.8	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	2.4%	3.72	4.23	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 31 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.63 (+1.20)K% 36.5% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.51%	—	×0.770	28.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.73%	—	×1.150	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 31 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.26 (+0.95)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.23%	—	×0.810	26.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.40%	—	×1.100	13.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 21 IPFIP 1.31 → 2.60 (+1.29)K% 41.0% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.03%	—	×0.740	30.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.180	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.31 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 46 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.88 (+1.19)K% 27.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.54%	—	×0.740	20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.84%	—	×1.180	22.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.97%	÷1.003	×1.300	1.25%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 38 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.58 (+1.53)K% 28.3% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.33%	—	×0.680	19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.89%	—	×1.250	11.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.005	×1.400	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Perry (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.00	27.8%	17.7%	335	-0.22	—	—	—
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	84
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	82
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	82
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	81
Jackson Baumeister R 2024 · 3.32 FIP	22	SP	3.32	25.2%	13.4%	1.2%	.270	5.44	18.9%	6.2%	166	+2.12	3.32	265	81
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	81
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	80
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	80
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	79
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	79
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	25.2%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.09	18.0%	8.3%	333	+0.86	3.95	569	79
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	78
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	78
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	78
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	78
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	24.1%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.11	21.9%	9.9%	127	+0.34	3.23	337	78
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	77
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	77
Ryan Bergert R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	23.0%	12.1%	1.4%	.286	4.12	19.4%	10.1%	219	+0.68	3.44	428	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	98	27.3%	10.5%	1.24	4.23
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63