Nolan Perry
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
+0.2
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%12.1%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 9 | 4 | 38 | 180 | 51 | 16 | 4 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 7.28 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 14 | 14 | 46 | 207 | 57 | 39 | 2 | 20.4% | 22.2% | 1.3% | 2.93 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 3 | 2 | 13 | 46 | 22 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TOR | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 50 | 204 | 58 | 21 | 6 | 28.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 3.35 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 23.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 24.8% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 24.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 20 | 97 | 433 | 99 | 70 | 9 | 22.8% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 4.44 | 4.38 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 41 | 200 | 890 | 203 | 144 | 18 | 22.8% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 4.44 | 4.38 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nolan Perry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.21 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 119 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 93 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 92 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 92 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 91 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 90 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 90 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 89 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 89 |
| Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 89 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 89 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 183 | 88 |
| Stephen Jones R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 88 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 88 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 88 |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.13 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.57 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 214 | 88 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 88 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 88 |
| Hunter Dula R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||