Nolan Perry — OGILVIE

Nolan Perry P Vancouver Canadians

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%21.9%

BB%17.0%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	4	38	180	51	16	4	44%	4.3	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	3.1%	7.28	4.58	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	4	38	180	51	16	4	44%	4.3	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	3.1%	7.28	4.58	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	9	4	38	180	51	16	4	44%	4.3	28.3%	8.9%	19.4%	2.2%	7.28	3.05	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	1.3%	2.93	4.88	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	20.4%	22.2%	-1.9%	1.3%	2.93	4.88	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	14	14	46	207	57	39	2	100%	3.3	27.5%	18.8%	8.7%	1.0%	2.93	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	21	20	83	325	117	32	7	95%	3.9	27.9%	11.1%	16.8%	2.7%	2.50	3.62	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	21	20	83	325	117	32	7	95%	3.9	27.9%	11.1%	16.8%	2.7%	2.50	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TOR	5	4	21	78	32	6	1	80%	4.2	41.0%	7.7%	33.3%	1.3%	1.71	1.31	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	TOR	7	7	31	126	46	11	3	100%	4.4	36.5%	8.7%	27.8%	2.4%	3.23	2.43	—
2026	22	AA RAW	TOR	9	9	31	121	39	15	3	100%	3.4	32.2%	12.4%	19.8%	2.5%	2.32	3.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	84	355	80	51	10	100%	5.2	22.6%	14.4%	8.2%	2.9%	5.08	4.97	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	86	364	84	46	10	100%	5.7	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.70	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	87	368	86	43	10	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.64	4.53	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	87	368	87	42	10	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.8%	4.55	4.50	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	86	363	86	42	11	100%	6.1	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	83	352	83	41	11	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.59	4.62	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	80	336	85	37	11	100%	6.1	25.2%	11.1%	14.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.48	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	75	316	79	36	11	100%	6.2	24.9%	11.4%	13.5%	3.3%	4.61	4.66	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	70	295	72	35	11	100%	5.8	24.5%	11.8%	12.7%	3.6%	4.76	4.86	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	42	177	40	25	5	100%	5.2	22.6%	14.4%	8.2%	2.9%	5.08	4.97	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	61	258	60	33	7	100%	5.5	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.70	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	71	300	70	35	9	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.64	4.53	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	76	37	9	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.8%	4.55	4.50	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	78	329	78	38	10	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	77	325	76	38	10	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.59	4.62	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	74	312	79	35	10	100%	6.2	25.2%	11.1%	14.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.48	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	70	296	74	34	10	100%	5.8	24.9%	11.4%	13.5%	3.3%	4.61	4.66	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	66	279	68	33	10	100%	6.0	24.5%	11.8%	12.7%	3.6%	4.76	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	104	615	2596	620	307	79	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.25	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	202	100	26	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		44	38	167	712	168	102	17	86%	3.8	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	2.4%	3.72	4.23	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	46	200	853	201	122	20	86%	3.8	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	2.4%	3.72	4.23	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Perry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	21.9%	17.0%	2.9%	—	4.73	23.1%	10.2%	257	-0.65	—	—	—
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	84
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	82
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	81
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	80
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	80
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	78
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	78
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	78
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	78
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	77
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	77
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	77
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	77
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	76	23.7%	12.1%	1.17	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39