Marlon De La Cruz

Marlon De La Cruz P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.21

FIP6.21

K%15.4%

BB%19.5%

K-BB%-4.1%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	11	39	191	48	32	3	100%	3.5	17.1%	20.9%	-3.9%	1.8%	7.15	5.31	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	11	39	191	48	32	3	100%	3.5	17.1%	20.9%	-3.9%	1.8%	7.15	5.31	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	11	39	191	48	32	3	100%	3.5	25.1%	16.8%	8.4%	1.6%	7.15	4.10	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	50	235	52	30	2	100%	4.2	15.0%	16.0%	-0.9%	0.9%	4.50	4.35	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	50	235	52	30	2	100%	4.2	15.0%	16.0%	-0.9%	0.9%	4.50	4.35	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	12	12	50	235	52	30	2	100%	4.2	22.1%	12.8%	9.4%	0.9%	4.50	3.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	21	19	63	318	58	66	4	90%	3.0	12.7%	25.4%	-12.8%	1.9%	5.71	6.32	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	21	19	63	318	58	66	4	90%	3.0	12.7%	25.4%	-12.8%	1.9%	5.71	6.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	WSH	5	4	12	49	12	8	0	80%	2.4	24.5%	16.3%	8.2%	0.0%	0.75	3.10	—
2026	20	A RAW	WSH	16	15	51	269	46	58	4	94%	3.2	17.1%	21.6%	-4.5%	1.5%	6.88	5.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	65	274	46	47	8	100%	5.4	16.9%	17.0%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.86	5.75	-0.6
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	68	287	53	44	8	100%	5.7	18.4%	15.2%	3.2%	2.8%	5.51	5.36	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	71	298	58	42	8	100%	5.4	19.4%	14.0%	5.4%	2.7%	5.24	5.10	-0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	72	306	61	40	8	100%	5.6	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	2.7%	5.05	4.94	-0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	73	309	63	39	8	100%	5.6	20.4%	12.8%	7.7%	2.7%	4.93	4.85	+0.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	73	309	64	39	8	100%	6.1	20.6%	12.7%	7.9%	2.7%	4.87	4.82	+0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	305	63	39	8	100%	6.0	20.6%	12.8%	7.8%	2.7%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	296	61	38	8	100%	5.8	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.8%	4.91	4.95	-0.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	67	282	57	37	8	100%	6.1	20.2%	13.2%	7.1%	3.0%	5.01	5.08	-0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	63	265	53	36	8	100%	6.3	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	3.2%	5.16	5.26	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	32	135	23	23	4	100%	5.3	16.9%	17.0%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.86	5.75	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	50	211	39	32	6	100%	5.6	18.4%	15.2%	3.2%	2.8%	5.51	5.36	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	60	253	49	35	7	100%	5.5	19.4%	14.0%	5.4%	2.7%	5.24	5.10	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	65	274	55	36	7	100%	5.4	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	2.7%	5.05	4.94	-0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	67	283	58	36	8	100%	6.1	20.4%	12.8%	7.7%	2.7%	4.93	4.85	+0.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	59	37	8	100%	6.2	20.6%	12.7%	7.9%	2.7%	4.87	4.82	+0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	69	291	60	37	8	100%	5.8	20.6%	12.8%	7.8%	2.7%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	66	279	57	36	8	100%	6.0	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.8%	4.91	4.95	-0.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	63	266	54	35	8	100%	6.3	20.2%	13.2%	7.1%	3.0%	5.01	5.08	-0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	60	253	50	34	8	100%	6.0	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	3.2%	5.16	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	105	599	2530	503	341	71	100%	5.7	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	2.8%	5.09	4.67	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	168	114	24	100%	5.7	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	2.8%	5.09	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		44	42	152	744	108	158	12	95%	3.5	14.5%	21.3%	-6.7%	1.6%	5.68	5.44	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	55	200	979	142	208	16	95%	3.5	14.5%	21.3%	-6.7%	1.6%	5.68	5.44	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marlon De La Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.21	15.4%	19.5%	2.8%	—	5.39	18.3%	2.9%	203	-0.82	—	—	—
Moises Nova R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.05	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.56	3.42	219	89
Enrique Segura R 2023 · 6.44 FIP	18	SP	6.44	13.2%	21.3%	3.2%	.269	5.60	16.4%	2.4%	234	-0.84	4.12	313	87
Hunter Stratton R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.69	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.04	3.02	527	87
Juan De La Cruz R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP	5.20	14.6%	17.7%	2.0%	.331	5.01	19.1%	-0.6%	136	-0.19	3.37	220	86
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	85
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	84
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	83
Jorge Bautista R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	20	SP	6.09	13.1%	16.5%	3.6%	.297	4.86	16.8%	7.5%	231	-1.23	3.80	336	82
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	82
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	82
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	81
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	81
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	81
Eliezer Pena R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	17	SP	6.54	10.5%	18.5%	3.6%	.265	4.47	18.1%	1.2%	114	-2.07	3.26	150	81
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	81
Edinxon Arias R 2017 · 7.03 FIP	19	SP	7.03	7.6%	19.9%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	127	80
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	80
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	80
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	80
Raudy Rivera R 2023 · 5.92 FIP	18	SP	5.92	19.2%	31.6%	0.8%	.321	5.34	22.7%	-0.8%	75	-0.58	3.65	111	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	66	19.5%	13.9%	1.08	5.18
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77