Marlon De La Cruz

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 155 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKWSH	11	11	39	7.15	4.10	25.1%	16.8%	—	K 17.1% · BB 20.9% · FIP 5.31
2025	19	ROKWSH	12	12	50	4.50	3.34	22.1%	12.8%	—	K 15.0% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.35
2026	20	MIX2 levels	21	19	63	5.71	5.23	18.2%	20.8%	—	K 12.7% · BB 25.4% · FIP 6.32
2027PROJ	21	MLBWSH	—	—	0	6.48	6.48	12.7%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBWSH	4	4	21	6.02	5.87	15.4%	17.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBWSH	6	6	31	5.65	5.48	17.1%	15.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsAndrew Landry (age 22) · Donal Montas (age 21) · Edinxon Arias (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156148vR 140

ERA6.48

FIP6.48

K%12.7%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-7.3%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	11	39	191	48	32	3	100%	3.5	17.1%	20.9%	-3.9%	1.8%	7.15	5.31	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	11	39	191	48	32	3	100%	3.5	17.1%	20.9%	-3.9%	1.8%	7.15	5.31	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	11	39	191	48	32	3	100%	3.5	25.1%	16.8%	8.4%	1.6%	7.15	4.10	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	50	235	52	30	2	100%	4.2	15.0%	16.0%	-0.9%	0.9%	4.50	4.35	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	50	235	52	30	2	100%	4.2	15.0%	16.0%	-0.9%	0.9%	4.50	4.35	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	12	12	50	235	52	30	2	100%	4.2	22.1%	12.8%	9.4%	0.9%	4.50	3.34	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	63	318	58	66	4	90%	3.0	12.7%	25.4%	-12.8%	1.9%	5.71	6.32	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	63	318	58	66	4	90%	3.0	12.7%	25.4%	-12.8%	1.9%	5.71	6.32	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	63	318	58	66	4	90%	3.0	18.2%	20.8%	-2.5%	1.3%	5.71	5.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.7%	20.0%	-7.3%	2.8%	6.48	6.48	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	43	182	28	31	5	100%	5.4	15.4%	17.2%	-1.8%	2.8%	6.02	5.87	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	43	182	31	28	5	100%	5.4	17.1%	15.4%	1.7%	2.7%	5.65	5.48	-0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	43	182	33	26	5	100%	5.4	18.1%	14.2%	3.9%	2.7%	5.38	5.24	+0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	6	6	37	157	29	21	4	100%	6.2	18.6%	13.5%	5.1%	2.7%	5.20	5.10	+0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	6	6	37	157	29	21	4	100%	6.2	18.8%	13.4%	5.3%	2.7%	5.13	5.08	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	21	89	14	15	2	100%	5.2	15.4%	17.2%	-1.8%	2.8%	6.02	5.87	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	31	131	22	20	4	100%	5.2	17.1%	15.4%	1.7%	2.7%	5.65	5.48	-0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	36	152	27	22	4	100%	6.0	18.1%	14.2%	3.9%	2.7%	5.38	5.24	+0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	33	139	26	19	4	100%	5.5	18.6%	13.5%	5.1%	2.7%	5.20	5.10	+0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	34	144	27	19	4	100%	5.7	18.8%	13.4%	5.3%	2.7%	5.13	5.08	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	155	656	117	95	18	100%	5.6	17.8%	14.5%	3.3%	2.7%	5.43	4.93	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	151	122	23	100%	5.6	17.8%	14.5%	3.3%	2.7%	5.43	4.93	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		44	42	152	744	108	158	12	95%	3.5	14.5%	21.3%	-6.7%	1.6%	5.68	5.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	55	200	979	142	208	16	95%	3.5	14.5%	21.3%	-6.7%	1.6%	5.68	5.44	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 51 IPFIP 5.20 → 6.32 (+1.11)K% 17.1% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.10%	—	×0.740	12.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.56%	—	×1.180	25.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.20 → 6.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 12 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.28 (+1.18)K% 24.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.680	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.33%	—	×1.250	20.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Nationals · 50 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.35 (+1.04)K% 22.1% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.13%	—	×0.680	15.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.250	15.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.300	×1.400	0.92%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Nationals · 39 IPFIP 3.96 → 5.31 (+1.35)K% 25.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.13%	—	×0.680	17.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.75%	—	×1.250	20.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷1.207	×1.400	1.82%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marlon De La Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.48	12.7%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.53	16.9%	1.3%	130	-0.95	—	—	—
Andrew Landry R 2024 · 5.70 FIP	22	SP	5.70	9.8%	20.7%	1.5%	.290	4.09	17.2%	5.1%	157	-1.61	3.22	177	82
Donal Montas R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP	5.66	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	.268	4.87	10.2%	-4.0%	78	-0.79	4.10	156	82
Edinxon Arias R 2017 · 7.03 FIP	19	SP	7.03	7.6%	19.9%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	127	82
Nazier Mulé R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	19	SP	5.42	12.1%	19.9%	1.5%	.208	5.01	19.0%	-0.5%	130	-0.41	4.81	173	81
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	81
Luis Ghisays R 2024 · 5.74 FIP	18	SP	5.74	13.8%	15.0%	3.5%	.291	5.08	16.2%	5.4%	75	-0.66	4.58	110	80
Osiris Ramirez R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	21	SP	5.47	12.6%	19.4%	1.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	104	80
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	80
Jhonly Taveras R 2024 · 6.59 FIP	19	SP	6.59	13.0%	27.1%	2.1%	.311	5.00	12.1%	-11.0%	34	-1.59	5.00	133	80
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	79
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	79
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	79
Matt Hartman R 2018 · 7.13 FIP	22	SP	7.13	8.2%	18.9%	4.2%	.217	3.95	12.1%	0.4%	89	-3.18	3.95	105	79
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	79
Johnny Hellweg R 2013 · 5.63 FIP	24	SP	5.63	5.6%	16.0%	1.8%	.298	5.82	9.6%	-8.1%	82	+0.19	2.98	140	79
Wilmer Blanco R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	20	SP	5.76	14.9%	16.3%	3.4%	.364	5.82	14.1%	2.3%	47	+0.06	3.81	163	78
Nixon Encarnacion R 2024 · 6.76 FIP	19	SP-	6.76	11.0%	32.2%	0.9%	.292	6.65	18.3%	-7.0%	37	-0.11	4.26	105	78
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	78
Noah Hall R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	23	SP	5.65	15.1%	17.0%	3.1%	.450	4.88	18.6%	3.6%	236	-0.77	4.27	248	78
Oliver Garcia R 2018 · 6.31 FIP	20	SP	6.31	10.4%	15.7%	3.8%	.315	5.86	16.5%	1.8%	53	-0.45	3.05	233	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	41	16.7%	15.7%	1.06	5.66
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*