Nixon Encarnacion
P
Inland Empire 66ers
+0.0
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 178 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2029
ERA4.97
FIP4.97
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%8.5%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2029
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 9 | 9 | 36 | 156 | 43 | 21 | 1 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 1.3% | 3.28 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Angels | 11 | 9 | 33 | 167 | 27 | 43 | 1 | 11.0% | 32.2% | 1.0% | 9.09 | 6.81 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 22 | 2 | 37 | 182 | 45 | 39 | 5 | 18.3% | 25.3% | 3.4% | 6.38 | 6.64 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | SEA | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.97 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SEA | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 23.0% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 24.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 24.6% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 23.9% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 42 | 20 | 105 | 505 | 81 | 126 | 10 | 16.0% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 6.17 | 5.99 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 38 | 200 | 962 | 154 | 240 | 19 | 16.0% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 6.17 | 5.99 | -1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nixon Encarnacion (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.45 | 23.7% | 12.8% | 98 | -0.52 | — | — | — |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.44 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.05 | 2.98 | 107 | 95 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 91 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 91 |
| Juan Mendez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.08 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.58 | 3.73 | 156 | 91 |
| Kyle Hinton R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.17 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.69 | 17.7% | -0.7% | 75 | +1.52 | 4.17 | 106 | 91 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 90 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.79 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 3.0% | .263 | 5.62 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 56 | +0.83 | 3.32 | 124 | 89 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.18 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | -0.06 | 4.91 | 162 | 89 |
| Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.52 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.77 | 3.24 | 288 | 89 |
| TJ Shook R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 89 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.15 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.17 | 3.98 | 198 | 89 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2028 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.84 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .254 | 4.24 | 18.1% | 6.2% | 130 | -0.60 | 4.16 | 159 | 88 |
| Justin Meis R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.02 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.09 | 3.64 | 341 | 88 |
| Max Gieg R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.14 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .317 | 4.64 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 92 | -0.50 | 3.95 | 108 | 88 |
| Rolddy Muñoz R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.30 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 149 | -0.76 | 3.15 | 238 | 88 |
| Kasey Ford R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 2.6% | .310 | 4.26 | 21.9% | 5.8% | 98 | -0.41 | 2.53 | 114 | 88 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.38 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | .324 | 3.97 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.41 | 3.54 | 152 | 88 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 87 |
| Brandon Dufault R 2027 · 5.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.33 | 22.1% | 15.9% | 3.8% | .278 | 4.90 | 21.0% | 4.2% | 66 | -0.43 | 4.38 | 152 | 87 |
| Cole Gordon R 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Pre-Arb | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Arb-1 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Arb-2 | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||