Kevin Abel
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.12
FIP5.12
K%18.1%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%4.5%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 1.3 | 35.3% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 5.9% | 9.00 | 5.58 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 1.3 | 35.3% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 5.9% | 9.00 | 5.60 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 39 | 184 | 66 | 34 | 4 | 46% | 3.0 | 25.2% | 22.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.82 | 6.25 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 39 | 184 | 66 | 34 | 4 | 46% | 3.0 | 35.9% | 18.5% | 17.4% | 2.2% | 5.82 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 72 | 320 | 90 | 47 | 7 | 74% | 3.8 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.40 | 5.01 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 72 | 320 | 90 | 47 | 7 | 74% | 3.8 | 28.1% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 2.2% | 5.40 | 3.83 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 116 | 504 | 113 | 65 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 17.9% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 4.51 | 4.41 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 116 | 504 | 113 | 65 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.51 | 3.96 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 125 | 533 | 119 | 59 | 12 | 96% | 4.6 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 4.47 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 125 | 533 | 119 | 59 | 12 | 96% | 4.6 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 3.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 18 | 15 | 82 | 387 | 85 | 54 | 11 | 83% | 4.6 | 17.8% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 6.12 | 5.41 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 54 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 5.12 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 5.12 | 5.12 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 153 | 687 | 139 | 95 | 19 | — | — | 20.3% | 13.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 5.66 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.1% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 5.12 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 140 | 593 | 109 | 78 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.4% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.12 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 104 | 73 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.18 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 97 | 69 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 13.0% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 41 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 58 | 41 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 66 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.2% | 13.0% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 36 | 215 | 906 | 166 | 118 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 5.14 | 4.84 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 110 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 5.14 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 88 | 437 | 1945 | 374 | 294 | 54 | 85% | 4.2 | 19.2% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 4.91 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 40 | 200 | 890 | 171 | 135 | 25 | 85% | 4.2 | 19.2% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 4.91 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Abel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.12 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 2.6% | — | 5.20 | 18.3% | 5.3% | 401 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 84 |
| Nate Long R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 78 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 77 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 76 |
| Chi Chi González R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.76 | 16.7% | 10.5% | 3.2% | .302 | 4.41 | 15.3% | 7.8% | 225 | -0.35 | 4.00 | 800 | 76 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 76 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 75 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.06 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .246 | 5.00 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 182 | +0.94 | 3.39 | 768 | 75 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 278 | 74 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 74 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 334 | 73 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 73 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.97 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .315 | 3.67 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 95 | -1.30 | 2.19 | 426 | 73 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 73 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 240 | 72 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 71 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.94 | 11.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .315 | 7.90 | 8.5% | -4.1% | 47 | +2.96 | 3.71 | 361 | 71 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.72 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.26 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.46 | 1.32 | 650 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 136 | 18.3% | 13.2% | 1.11 | 5.13 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |