Kevin Abel — OGILVIE

Kevin Abel P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION109 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%18.1%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	3	4	17	6	3	1	100%	1.3	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	5.9%	9.00	5.58	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	3	3	4	17	6	3	1	100%	1.3	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	5.9%	9.00	5.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	39	184	66	34	4	46%	3.0	25.2%	22.4%	2.8%	3.9%	5.82	5.92	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	6	39	184	66	34	4	46%	3.0	35.9%	18.5%	17.4%	2.2%	5.82	3.67	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	72	320	90	47	7	74%	3.8	21.1%	17.2%	3.9%	2.8%	5.40	5.01	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	72	320	90	47	7	74%	3.8	21.1%	17.2%	3.9%	2.8%	5.40	5.01	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	14	72	320	90	47	7	74%	3.8	28.1%	14.7%	13.4%	2.2%	5.40	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	17.9%	14.3%	3.6%	2.1%	4.51	4.54	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	17.9%	14.3%	3.6%	2.1%	4.51	4.54	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	22.4%	12.9%	9.5%	2.0%	4.51	3.96	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.50	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	22.3%	11.1%	11.3%	2.3%	4.55	3.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	30	17	109	492	114	67	13	57%	3.6	18.8%	14.7%	4.1%	3.2%	5.38	5.11	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	30	17	109	492	114	67	13	57%	3.6	18.8%	14.7%	4.1%	3.2%	5.38	5.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	CIN	23	16	93	433	98	60	13	70%	4.0	22.6%	13.9%	8.8%	3.0%	6.00	4.59	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	CIN	7	1	16	59	16	7	0	14%	2.2	27.1%	11.9%	15.3%	0.0%	1.72	2.31	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CIN	2	2	13	55	10	8	1	100%	6.6	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	2.7%	5.16	5.16	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	122	547	124	75	14	—	—	22.7%	13.6%	9.0%	2.6%	5.36	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	140	593	109	79	17	100%	6.1	18.4%	13.2%	5.1%	2.8%	5.12	5.15	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	134	566	104	74	17	100%	6.1	18.4%	13.1%	5.3%	3.0%	5.15	5.22	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	126	532	97	70	17	100%	6.0	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	3.2%	5.25	5.34	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	53	224	41	30	6	100%	5.9	18.4%	13.2%	5.1%	2.8%	5.12	5.15	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	75	317	58	41	9	100%	6.2	18.4%	13.1%	5.3%	3.0%	5.15	5.22	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	86	363	66	48	12	100%	6.1	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	3.2%	5.25	5.34	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	36	213	901	165	118	27	100%	5.9	18.3%	13.1%	5.2%	3.0%	5.18	4.87	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	155	111	25	100%	6.0	18.3%	13.1%	5.2%	3.0%	5.18	4.87	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		116	90	463	2050	398	307	56	78%	4.0	19.4%	15.0%	4.4%	2.8%	5.01	4.87	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	885	172	133	24	78%	4.0	19.4%	15.0%	4.4%	2.8%	5.01	4.87	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Abel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	18.1%	13.7%	2.7%	—	5.23	18.3%	5.2%	401	+0.07	—	—	—
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	78
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	77
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	76
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	76
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	75
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	74
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	74
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	74
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	73
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	73
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	22.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.246	5.09	22.7%	10.1%	182	+1.00	3.35	768	73
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	72
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	72
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	72
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	72
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	72
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	72
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	72
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	72
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	136	18.3%	13.3%	1.12	5.17
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32