Kevin Abel
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.5
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.6%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%7.6%
IP114
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 13 | 6 | 39 | 184 | 66 | 34 | 4 | 25.2% | 22.4% | 4.2% | 5.82 | 6.09 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 19 | 14 | 72 | 320 | 90 | 47 | 7 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.02 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 24 | 24 | 116 | 504 | 113 | 65 | 10 | 17.9% | 14.3% | 2.0% | 4.51 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 27 | 26 | 125 | 533 | 119 | 59 | 12 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 3 | 3 | 13 | 59 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 15.1% | 22.4% | 2.0% | 3.46 | 5.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 94 | 58 | 13 | 19.6% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 127 | 542 | 105 | 70 | 14 | 19.5% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.67 | 4.91 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 115 | 484 | 96 | 56 | 13 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 94 | 54 | 13 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 90 | 52 | 13 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 86 | 50 | 13 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 82 | 49 | 13 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 77 | 47 | 13 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 72 | 46 | 12 | 18.6% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 5.11 | 5.18 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 66 | 44 | 12 | 18.2% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 80 | 340 | 60 | 42 | 12 | 17.8% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 89 | 76 | 368 | 1617 | 314 | 248 | 42 | 19.4% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 4.85 | 4.84 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 41 | 200 | 880 | 171 | 135 | 23 | 19.4% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 4.85 | 4.84 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Abel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 19.6% | 11.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.80 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 335 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 85 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 85 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.7% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 435 | 83 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 83 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 82 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 82 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.22 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.01 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.54 | 200 | 81 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 81 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 81 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 80 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 80 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 80 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 80 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 80 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 80 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 80 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 80 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 80 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.00 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .325 | 4.04 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.96 | 4.04 | 448 | 79 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $0.2M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $3M | $8M | +$5M | ||