Kevin Abel

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	24	24	116	4.51	3.96	22.4%	12.9%	—	K 17.9% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.54
2025	26	MIX2 levels	27	26	125	4.55	3.86	22.3%	11.1%	—	K 17.8% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.50
2026	27	MIX2 levels	31	17	111	5.35	4.39	23.5%	13.9%	—	K 19.2% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	28	MLBCIN	1	1	3	5.28	5.28	19.1%	14.6%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCIN	6	6	34	5.25	5.30	19.1%	14.1%	0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBCIN	8	8	46	5.31	5.40	19.0%	13.9%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsEdgar Alberto Garcia (age 28) · Luke Irvine (age 27) · Nate Long (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%19.1%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	3	4	17	6	3	1	100%	1.3	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	5.9%	9.00	5.58	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	3	3	4	17	6	3	1	100%	1.3	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	5.9%	9.00	5.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	39	184	66	34	4	46%	3.0	25.2%	22.4%	2.8%	3.9%	5.82	5.92	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	6	39	184	66	34	4	46%	3.0	35.9%	18.5%	17.4%	2.2%	5.82	3.67	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	72	320	90	47	7	74%	3.8	21.1%	17.2%	3.9%	2.8%	5.40	5.01	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	14	72	320	90	47	7	74%	3.8	28.1%	14.7%	13.4%	2.2%	5.40	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	17.9%	14.3%	3.6%	2.1%	4.51	4.54	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	17.9%	14.3%	3.6%	2.1%	4.51	4.54	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	22.4%	12.9%	9.5%	2.0%	4.51	3.96	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.50	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	22.3%	11.1%	11.3%	2.3%	4.55	3.86	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	17	111	503	118	70	13	55%	3.6	19.2%	14.9%	4.3%	3.1%	5.35	5.07	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	17	111	503	118	70	13	55%	3.6	19.2%	14.9%	4.3%	3.1%	5.35	5.07	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	17	111	503	118	70	13	55%	3.6	23.5%	13.9%	9.5%	2.6%	5.35	4.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CIN	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	2.8%	5.28	5.28	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	18	18	107	453	87	64	14	100%	6.0	19.1%	14.1%	5.0%	3.0%	5.25	5.30	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	89	376	71	52	12	100%	5.9	19.0%	13.9%	5.1%	3.2%	5.31	5.40	0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	34	144	27	20	4	100%	5.7	19.1%	14.1%	5.0%	3.0%	5.25	5.30	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	37	27	6	100%	5.8	19.0%	13.9%	5.1%	3.2%	5.31	5.40	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	13	79	335	64	47	10	100%	6.1	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	3.1%	5.28	4.98	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	119	25	100%	6.0	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	3.1%	5.28	4.98	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		117	90	466	2061	402	310	56	77%	4.0	19.5%	15.0%	4.4%	2.7%	5.01	4.86	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	885	173	133	24	77%	4.0	19.5%	15.0%	4.4%	2.7%	5.01	4.86	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 93 IPFIP 4.59 → 5.46 (+0.87)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.63%	—	×0.810	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.86%	—	×1.100	15.24%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 18 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.65 (+0.16)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 121 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.50 (+0.70)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.810	17.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.92%	—	×1.100	12.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.021	×1.200	2.52%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 4 IPFIP 5.21 → 5.98 (+0.77)K% 30.0% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.860	25.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×0.900	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.901	×1.100	6.10%

Result: FIP 5.21 → 5.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 87 IPFIP 4.03 → 4.65 (+0.62)K% 21.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.24%	—	×0.810	17.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.77%	—	×1.100	16.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.089	×1.200	1.71%

Result: FIP 4.03 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 29 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.19 (+0.59)K% 26.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.27%	—	×0.770	20.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.150	7.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.285	×1.250	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 40 IPFIP 3.71 → 5.12 (+1.42)K% 33.7% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.70%	—	×0.740	24.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.68%	—	×1.180	20.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷1.060	×1.300	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 31 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.87 (+0.98)K% 20.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.86%	—	×0.770	16.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.79%	—	×1.150	12.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷0.951	×1.250	2.84%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Abel (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	5.35	19.1%	5.0%	196	+0.07	—	—	—
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	72
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	70
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	70
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	69
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	68
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	68
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	67
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	66
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	66
Chris Kachmar R 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	17.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.274	4.79	19.3%	7.3%	143	+0.32	4.29	360	65
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	65
Jordan Pries R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	26	SP-	4.43	17.4%	8.2%	3.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	219	64
Daniel Corcino R 2019 · 5.83 FIP	28	SP	5.83	17.5%	12.2%	4.9%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	318	64
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	64
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	64
Luke Hudson R 2005 · 5.54 FIP	28	SP	5.54	13.9%	12.6%	3.7%	.260	3.81	14.5%	6.1%	102	-1.73	3.81	235	64
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2024 · 5.14 FIP	26	SP	5.14	14.8%	11.1%	3.4%	.280	4.32	17.5%	4.0%	184	-0.82	3.65	492	64
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	63
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	114	19.1%	14.3%	1.16	5.28
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Wayne Simpson ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	3.2	106	17.4%*	11.0%*	1.09*	5.03*
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*