Josh Gessner — OGILVIE

Josh Gessner P Hickory Crawdads

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%18.6%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	6	3	13	55	17	7	0	50%	2.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.1%	0.0%	2.84	3.34	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies West	6	3	13	55	17	7	0	50%	2.1	30.9%	12.7%	18.2%	0.0%	2.84	2.07	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	8	37	160	64	22	0	73%	3.4	27.2%	17.2%	10.0%	0.0%	4.14	2.98	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	8	37	160	64	22	0	73%	3.4	40.0%	13.8%	26.2%	0.0%	4.14	1.42	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	47	224	56	27	5	43%	3.4	17.0%	15.0%	2.0%	3.5%	5.70	5.47	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	47	224	56	27	5	43%	3.4	25.0%	12.1%	12.9%	2.2%	5.70	3.82	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	6	31	131	32	19	2	55%	2.8	15.5%	19.5%	-4.0%	1.3%	3.73	4.98	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	6	31	131	32	19	2	55%	2.8	15.5%	19.5%	-4.0%	1.3%	3.73	4.98	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	6	31	131	32	19	2	55%	2.8	24.4%	14.5%	9.9%	1.5%	3.73	3.71	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	12	56	4	13	0	0%	1.2	5.5%	26.7%	-21.2%	0.0%	3.00	6.02	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	12	56	4	13	0	0%	1.2	5.5%	26.7%	-21.2%	0.0%	3.00	6.02	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	12	56	4	13	0	0%	1.2	7.1%	23.2%	-16.1%	0.0%	3.00	5.68	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	18.6%	16.3%	2.3%	2.9%	5.57	5.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	16	13	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	15.7%	3.4%	3.0%	5.47	5.49	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TEX	7	0	7	30	6	5	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	15.7%	3.4%	3.0%	5.47	5.49	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	5	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	15.7%	3.4%	3.0%	5.47	5.11	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	136	27	0%	1.1	19.1%	15.7%	3.4%	3.0%	5.47	5.11	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		52	23	140	626	116	110	10	44%	2.7	18.6%	17.6%	1.0%	1.5%	4.36	4.59	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	33	200	892	166	157	14	44%	2.7	18.6%	17.6%	1.0%	1.5%	4.36	4.59	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Gessner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	18.6%	16.3%	2.9%	—	5.49	19.1%	3.4%	20	-0.08	—	—	—
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	80
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.59	20.3%	8.6%	172	-1.23	2.64	280	74
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	73
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	73
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	72
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	72
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	71
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.37	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.24	2.10	346	71
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.91	14.2%	5.1%	266	-0.75	4.32	277	71
Adrian Chaidez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	24	SW	4.96	19.4%	16.3%	2.6%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	144	71
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	70
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	70
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	68
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	67
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	67
John Richy R 2018 · 6.47 FIP	26	SW	6.47	12.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	313	67
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	67
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	67
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	66
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	66