Nazier Mulé — OGILVIE

Nazier Mulé P South Bend Cubs

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.09

FIP6.09

K%18.4%

BB%21.5%

K-BB%-3.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD2030

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	52	234	43	42	2	94%	3.1	12.1%	19.9%	-7.8%	1.5%	4.33	5.42	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	52	234	43	42	2	94%	3.1	12.1%	19.9%	-7.8%	1.5%	4.33	5.42	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	52	234	43	42	2	94%	3.1	18.4%	17.9%	0.4%	0.9%	4.33	4.37	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	67	306	69	55	2	100%	3.7	16.8%	21.1%	-4.3%	0.8%	5.78	4.81	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	67	306	69	55	2	100%	3.7	16.8%	21.1%	-4.3%	0.8%	5.78	4.81	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	67	306	69	55	2	100%	3.7	22.5%	18.0%	4.6%	0.7%	5.78	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	19	15	63	286	79	44	7	79%	3.3	21.3%	17.7%	3.6%	3.1%	5.43	5.22	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	19	15	63	286	79	44	7	79%	3.3	21.3%	17.7%	3.6%	3.1%	5.43	5.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	CHC	19	15	63	286	79	44	7	79%	3.3	27.6%	15.4%	12.2%	2.4%	5.43	4.06	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	8	32	6	7	1	100%	3.8	18.4%	21.5%	-3.1%	2.6%	6.09	6.09	-0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	71	318	85	51	8	—	—	26.7%	16.0%	10.7%	2.5%	5.50	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CHC	24	24	130	551	116	100	14	100%	5.4	21.1%	18.2%	2.9%	2.6%	5.62	5.43	-0.8
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	31	31	169	715	163	115	18	100%	5.5	22.8%	16.0%	6.8%	2.6%	5.21	5.00	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	31	31	175	739	177	108	19	100%	5.6	23.9%	14.6%	9.3%	2.6%	4.91	4.73	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	30	30	177	748	184	103	19	100%	5.9	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.70	4.56	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	30	30	177	748	187	103	19	100%	5.9	25.0%	13.8%	11.2%	2.6%	4.60	4.53	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	29	29	174	737	184	102	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	13.8%	11.1%	2.6%	4.58	4.56	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	28	28	169	715	177	100	19	100%	6.0	24.8%	14.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.62	4.65	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	27	27	162	683	168	97	20	100%	6.0	24.6%	14.2%	10.4%	2.9%	4.72	4.78	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	CHC	25	25	152	642	156	93	20	100%	6.1	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	3.1%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	CHC	24	24	142	598	143	89	20	100%	5.9	23.8%	14.9%	9.0%	3.3%	5.04	5.16	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	64	270	57	49	7	100%	5.3	21.1%	18.2%	2.9%	2.5%	5.57	5.38	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	23	23	124	524	119	84	13	100%	5.4	22.8%	16.0%	6.8%	2.5%	5.16	4.95	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	26	26	145	612	146	90	15	100%	5.6	23.9%	14.6%	9.3%	2.5%	4.86	4.68	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	27	27	157	663	163	91	16	100%	5.8	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	2.5%	4.65	4.51	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	27	27	162	684	171	94	17	100%	6.0	25.0%	13.8%	11.2%	2.5%	4.55	4.48	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	27	27	162	684	171	95	17	100%	6.0	24.9%	13.8%	11.1%	2.5%	4.53	4.51	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	26	26	158	667	166	93	17	100%	6.1	24.8%	14.0%	10.8%	2.6%	4.56	4.59	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	26	26	154	650	160	92	18	100%	5.9	24.6%	14.2%	10.4%	2.8%	4.66	4.72	+0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	CHC	24	24	144	608	147	88	18	100%	6.0	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	3.0%	4.80	4.90	-0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	CHC	22	22	135	570	136	85	18	100%	6.1	23.8%	14.9%	9.0%	3.2%	4.97	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		241	241	1405	5930	1435	861	157	100%	5.8	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	2.6%	4.77	4.35	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	204	123	22	100%	5.8	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	2.6%	4.77	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		54	49	182	826	140	162	15	91%	3.4	17.0%	19.6%	-2.6%	1.8%	5.24	5.13	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	54	200	908	154	178	16	91%	3.4	17.0%	19.6%	-2.6%	1.8%	5.24	5.13	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nazier Mulé (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.09	18.4%	21.5%	2.6%	—	5.02	22.7%	6.6%	475	-1.07	—	—	—
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	87
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	85
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	82
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	80
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	79
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	79
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	78
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	78
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	78
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	77
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	76
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	76
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	76
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.71	19.8%	10.2%	184	-1.16	3.47	340	76
Heath Fillmyer R 2015 · 5.38 FIP	21	SP	5.38	12.8%	14.9%	2.7%	.339	4.43	15.2%	6.6%	433	-0.95	3.52	687	76
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	76
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	75
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	75
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.62	298	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	156	23.7%	15.0%	1.06	4.93
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68