Nazier Mulé

P South Bend Cubs

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#381ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	17	16	52	4.33	4.37	18.4%	17.9%	—	K 12.1% · BB 19.9% · FIP 5.42
2025	20	MIX2 levels	18	18	67	5.78	3.89	22.5%	18.0%	—	K 16.8% · BB 21.1% · FIP 4.81
2026	21	A+CHC	19	15	63	5.43	4.13	27.6%	15.4%	—	K 21.3% · BB 17.7% · FIP 5.22
2027PROJ	22	MLBCHC	—	—	0	5.73	5.73	21.8%	19.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCHC	9	9	48	5.30	5.16	23.3%	17.1%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCHC	13	13	75	5.00	4.84	24.3%	15.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 5.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsHunter Parks (age 22) · Jacob Watters (age 22) · J.P. Massey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.73

FIP5.73

K%21.8%

BB%19.9%

K-BB%1.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	52	234	43	42	2	94%	3.1	12.1%	19.9%	-7.8%	1.5%	4.33	5.42	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	52	234	43	42	2	94%	3.1	12.1%	19.9%	-7.8%	1.5%	4.33	5.42	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	52	234	43	42	2	94%	3.1	18.4%	17.9%	0.4%	0.9%	4.33	4.37	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	67	306	69	55	2	100%	3.7	16.8%	21.1%	-4.3%	0.8%	5.78	4.81	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	67	306	69	55	2	100%	3.7	16.8%	21.1%	-4.3%	0.8%	5.78	4.81	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	67	306	69	55	2	100%	3.7	22.5%	18.0%	4.6%	0.7%	5.78	3.89	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	19	15	63	286	79	44	7	79%	3.3	21.3%	17.7%	3.6%	3.1%	5.43	5.22	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	19	15	63	286	79	44	7	79%	3.3	21.3%	17.7%	3.6%	3.1%	5.43	5.22	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	19	15	63	286	79	44	7	79%	3.3	27.6%	15.4%	12.2%	2.4%	5.43	4.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.8%	19.9%	1.8%	2.8%	5.73	5.73	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	97	409	95	70	12	100%	5.4	23.3%	17.1%	6.2%	2.8%	5.36	5.22	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	107	453	110	69	13	100%	5.6	24.3%	15.3%	9.0%	2.8%	5.06	4.90	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	115	486	121	69	14	100%	5.8	24.8%	14.2%	10.7%	2.8%	4.84	4.71	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	114	483	121	67	14	100%	6.0	25.1%	14.0%	11.1%	2.8%	4.73	4.67	+1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	111	470	118	66	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	14.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.71	4.70	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	106	448	112	64	13	100%	5.9	25.0%	14.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.79	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	99	418	103	60	13	100%	6.2	24.7%	14.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.86	4.92	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	90	380	93	56	13	100%	6.0	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	3.3%	5.00	5.10	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	81	343	82	52	12	100%	5.8	24.0%	15.1%	8.9%	3.5%	5.18	5.30	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	48	203	47	35	5	100%	5.3	23.3%	17.1%	6.2%	2.7%	5.30	5.16	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	75	317	77	48	9	100%	5.8	24.3%	15.3%	9.0%	2.7%	5.00	4.84	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	93	393	97	56	11	100%	5.8	24.8%	14.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.78	4.65	+0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	17	17	100	422	106	59	11	100%	5.9	25.1%	14.0%	11.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.61	+0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	17	17	101	426	107	60	12	100%	5.9	25.1%	14.0%	11.1%	2.7%	4.65	4.64	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	98	414	103	59	12	100%	6.1	25.0%	14.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.70	4.73	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	92	388	96	56	12	100%	6.1	24.7%	14.4%	10.3%	3.0%	4.80	4.86	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	84	355	86	52	11	100%	6.0	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	3.2%	4.93	5.03	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	77	325	78	49	11	100%	5.9	24.0%	15.1%	8.9%	3.4%	5.11	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	768	3243	799	473	93	100%	5.9	24.6%	14.6%	10.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.45	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	123	24	100%	5.9	24.6%	14.6%	10.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.45	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		54	49	182	826	140	162	15	91%	3.4	17.0%	19.6%	-2.6%	1.8%	5.24	5.13	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	54	200	908	154	178	16	91%	3.4	17.0%	19.6%	-2.6%	1.8%	5.24	5.13	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 63 IPFIP 4.06 → 5.22 (+1.16)K% 27.6% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.62%	—	×0.770	21.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.150	17.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 5.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 56 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.53 (+1.01)K% 23.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.90%	—	×0.740	17.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.53%	—	×1.180	20.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.40%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 11 IPFIP 5.25 → 6.08 (+0.83)K% 16.4% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.36%	—	×0.770	12.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.150	23.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.106	×1.250	2.05%

Result: FIP 5.25 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 43 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.42 (+0.99)K% 16.3% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.32%	—	×0.740	12.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.84%	—	×1.180	19.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷0.908	×1.300	1.51%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Cubs · 9 IPFIP 3.68 → 5.13 (+1.46)K% 27.3% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.680	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.73%	—	×1.250	28.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.935	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nazier Mulé (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.93	24.2%	8.8%	319	-0.80	—	—	—
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	4.95	20.8%	4.6%	139	-0.20	4.42	301	86
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	86
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	81
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	81
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	81
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	79
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	78
Noble Meyer R 2024 · 5.82 FIP	19	SP	5.82	20.0%	20.0%	3.4%	.198	4.31	18.7%	3.9%	65	-1.51	4.31	139	78
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.39	24.2%	13.0%	346	-0.66	3.90	519	77
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	77
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	76
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	76
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.79	22.7%	9.3%	231	-0.03	3.69	326	75
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	75
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	101	24.3%	15.2%	1.14	5.00
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Floyd Youmans ('85-'89, 6 WAR*)	2.7	108	23.5%*	11.9%*	1.06*	4.23*