Luis Ghisays — OGILVIE

Luis Ghisays P ACL Cubs

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 188 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%15.6%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%3.7%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	11	11	35	158	32	19	4	100%	3.2	13.8%	15.0%	-1.3%	3.5%	6.37	5.74	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	11	11	35	158	32	19	4	100%	3.2	13.8%	15.0%	-1.3%	3.5%	6.37	5.74	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	11	11	35	158	32	19	4	100%	3.2	20.3%	12.0%	8.2%	2.5%	6.37	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	49	210	51	16	4	100%	4.1	16.5%	9.5%	7.0%	3.0%	4.22	4.58	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	49	210	51	16	4	100%	4.1	16.5%	9.5%	7.0%	3.0%	4.22	4.58	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	12	12	49	210	51	16	4	100%	4.1	24.3%	7.6%	16.7%	1.9%	4.22	3.06	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	15	1	26	121	28	13	4	7%	1.7	15.7%	13.4%	2.3%	4.6%	6.23	6.01	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	15	1	26	121	28	13	4	7%	1.7	15.7%	13.4%	2.3%	4.6%	6.23	6.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	CHC	15	1	26	121	28	13	4	7%	1.7	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	3.3%	6.23	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CHC	44	0	46	195	33	22	6	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.2%	5.9%	3.0%	5.13	5.07	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	CHC	46	0	49	205	38	21	6	0%	1.1	18.6%	10.4%	8.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.82	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	CHC	48	0	50	213	42	21	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	2.9%	4.76	4.67	-0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	52	218	44	21	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	2.8%	4.64	4.57	-0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	CHC	50	0	52	221	45	21	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.56	4.51	+0.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	CHC	50	0	52	221	46	21	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.2%	2.8%	4.52	4.49	+0.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	52	217	45	21	6	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.7%	11.1%	2.9%	4.52	4.53	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	CHC	22	0	23	97	17	11	3	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.2%	5.9%	2.8%	5.07	5.01	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	CHC	33	0	35	148	27	15	4	0%	1.1	18.6%	10.4%	8.1%	2.8%	4.86	4.76	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	CHC	41	0	43	182	35	18	5	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	2.7%	4.70	4.61	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	CHC	44	0	46	194	39	19	5	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	2.7%	4.58	4.51	-0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	CHC	46	0	48	203	42	20	5	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	2.7%	4.50	4.45	+0.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	CHC	47	0	49	207	43	20	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.2%	2.7%	4.46	4.43	+0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	CHC	47	0	49	207	43	20	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		279	0	292	1235	246	122	34	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.9%	10.0%	2.7%	4.62	4.18	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	83	23	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.9%	10.0%	2.7%	4.62	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		38	24	110	489	75	60	17	63%	2.9	15.4%	12.3%	3.2%	3.6%	5.38	5.31	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	44	200	886	137	109	32	63%	2.9	15.4%	12.3%	3.2%	3.6%	5.38	5.31	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Ghisays (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	15.6%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.85	18.4%	7.9%	145	-0.48	—	—	—
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	89
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	86
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	85
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	84
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	84
Sasagi Sanchez R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	21	SW	4.48	11.4%	9.4%	2.1%	.289	4.45	12.7%	4.0%	108	-0.03	3.48	180	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	83
Ruben Galindo R 2021 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	15.9%	11.1%	2.8%	.345	3.51	19.0%	7.7%	149	-1.17	2.84	239	82
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	82
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	82
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	82
Chad Bryant R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	13.3%	2.3%	.345	5.43	14.4%	-4.5%	49	+0.47	3.93	136	82
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	82
Adriel Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	20	SP-	4.21	14.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	117	82
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	81
Damian Mendoza R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	15.0%	10.3%	2.8%	.371	4.53	17.9%	7.7%	178	-0.16	2.73	314	81
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	81
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	81
Weskendry Espinosa R 2022 · 4.82 FIP	20	SP-	4.82	11.6%	11.9%	2.2%	.368	4.05	15.6%	3.6%	78	-0.77	2.98	147	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	47	19.4%	10.2%	1.11	4.76
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81