Carlos Romero — OGILVIE

Carlos Romero P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 179 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%16.0%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	14	2	32	147	23	16	0	14%	2.3	10.6%	13.6%	-3.0%	0.0%	5.12	3.92	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	14	2	32	147	23	16	0	14%	2.3	15.6%	10.9%	4.8%	0.0%	5.12	3.16	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	12	10	61	239	55	21	1	83%	5.1	15.6%	11.0%	4.7%	0.6%	1.33	3.49	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	12	10	61	239	55	21	1	83%	5.1	23.0%	8.8%	14.2%	0.4%	1.33	2.54	—
2021	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	8	45	215	38	21	7	47%	2.7	13.1%	11.5%	1.6%	3.7%	4.96	5.46	—
2021	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	8	45	215	38	21	7	47%	2.7	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	3.3%	4.96	4.82	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	34	1	72	303	97	41	6	3%	2.1	24.7%	15.6%	9.1%	2.2%	3.36	4.21	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	34	1	72	303	97	41	6	3%	2.1	32.0%	13.5%	18.5%	2.0%	3.36	3.20	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	56	254	63	32	9	0%	1.4	19.3%	14.4%	4.9%	4.4%	6.47	5.70	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	56	254	63	32	9	0%	1.4	19.3%	14.4%	4.9%	4.4%	6.47	5.70	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	56	254	63	32	9	0%	1.4	24.8%	12.6%	12.2%	3.5%	6.47	4.66	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	60	259	65	30	4	0%	1.4	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	1.8%	3.15	3.90	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	60	259	65	30	4	0%	1.4	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	1.8%	3.15	3.90	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	60	259	65	30	4	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.6%	13.5%	1.5%	3.15	3.30	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	38	0	44	210	41	28	6	0%	1.2	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	3.3%	6.09	5.05	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	38	0	44	210	41	28	6	0%	1.2	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	3.3%	6.09	5.05	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	38	0	44	210	41	28	6	0%	1.2	19.5%	13.3%	6.2%	2.9%	6.09	4.90	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	WSH	4	0	4	17	3	2	1	0%	1.0	16.0%	13.8%	2.2%	3.0%	5.53	5.53	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	40	33	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.5%	3.1%	3.1%	5.46	5.50	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	55	233	39	31	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.4%	3.5%	3.3%	5.47	5.54	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	18	14	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.5%	3.1%	3.1%	5.46	5.50	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	31	0	33	139	23	19	5	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.4%	3.5%	3.3%	5.47	5.54	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	241	40	32	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	13.4%	3.3%	3.2%	5.47	5.14	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	112	28	0%	1.1	16.7%	13.4%	3.3%	3.2%	5.47	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		198	21	370	1627	291	211	39	11%	1.9	17.9%	13.0%	4.9%	2.4%	4.13	4.54	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	11	200	879	157	114	21	11%	1.9	17.9%	13.0%	4.9%	2.4%	4.13	4.54	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Romero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	16.0%	13.8%	3.0%	—	5.52	16.7%	3.3%	113	-0.01	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	91
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	86
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	84
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	83
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	83
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	83
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	82
Jose De La Torre R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	29	SU	4.40	14.5%	13.1%	1.6%	.256	2.98	21.6%	14.2%	65	-1.42	2.64	130	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	81
Chris Beck R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	17.4%	12.2%	3.0%	.305	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	41	+0.46	3.22	313	81
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	81
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	81
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	81
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	81
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	80
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	80
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.5%	13.5%	1.21	5.49
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39