Carlos Romero
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 179 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 127
ERA5.65
FIP5.65
K%16.7%
BB%15.0%
K-BB%1.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 14 | 2 | 32 | 147 | 23 | 16 | 0 | 14% | 2.3 | 10.6% | 13.6% | -3.0% | 0.0% | 5.12 | 3.92 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 14 | 2 | 32 | 147 | 23 | 16 | 0 | 14% | 2.3 | 15.6% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 5.12 | 3.16 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 12 | 10 | 61 | 239 | 55 | 21 | 1 | 83% | 5.1 | 15.6% | 11.0% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 1.33 | 3.49 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 12 | 10 | 61 | 239 | 55 | 21 | 1 | 83% | 5.1 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 0.4% | 1.33 | 2.54 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 17 | 8 | 45 | 215 | 38 | 21 | 7 | 47% | 2.7 | 13.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.22 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 17 | 8 | 45 | 215 | 38 | 21 | 7 | 47% | 2.7 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 4.82 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 34 | 1 | 72 | 303 | 97 | 41 | 6 | 3% | 2.1 | 24.7% | 15.6% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 3.36 | 4.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 34 | 1 | 72 | 303 | 97 | 41 | 6 | 3% | 2.1 | 32.0% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 2.0% | 3.36 | 3.20 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 56 | 254 | 63 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.3% | 14.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.47 | 5.77 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 56 | 254 | 63 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.8% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 6.47 | 4.66 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 65 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.3% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 3.15 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 65 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 1.5% | 3.15 | 3.30 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 38 | 0 | 44 | 210 | 41 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.2% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.09 | 5.30 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 38 | 0 | 44 | 210 | 41 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 13.3% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 6.09 | 4.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 42 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 15.0% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 5.65 | 5.65 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 42 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.57 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 41 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.57 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.57 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 24 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.57 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 42 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.57 | 5.24 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 123 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.57 | 5.24 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 198 | 21 | 370 | 1627 | 293 | 217 | 38 | 11% | 1.9 | 18.0% | 13.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 4.54 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 11 | 200 | 879 | 158 | 117 | 20 | 11% | 1.9 | 18.0% | 13.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Romero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.65 | 16.7% | 15.0% | 3.1% | — | 5.62 | 17.3% | 2.8% | 113 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 89 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 86 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 85 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 83 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 15.3% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .239 | 5.47 | 17.4% | 6.7% | 96 | +0.68 | 3.33 | 258 | 82 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.74 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.50 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 122 | -0.24 | 3.92 | 256 | 82 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 82 |
| Gregory Infante R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.63 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.94 | 2.96 | 230 | 82 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 81 |
| Trey Haley R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 14.0% | 16.5% | 1.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 111 | 81 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 181 | 81 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 81 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2024 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 80 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 80 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 80 |
| Matt Lollis R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.05 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 80 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 79 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 79 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .321 | 5.43 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 24 | +0.91 | 2.85 | 174 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 17.1% | 14.7% | 1.22 | 5.60 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |