Carlos Romero

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 179 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	39	0	56	6.47	4.66	24.8%	12.6%	—	K 19.3% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.70
2024	25	MIX3 levels	44	0	60	3.15	3.30	25.1%	11.6%	—	K 20.2% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.89
2025	26	AAAWSH	38	0	44	6.09	4.90	19.5%	13.3%	—	K 16.8% · BB 12.0% · FIP 5.00
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	6	0	6	5.43	5.43	16.5%	13.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBWSH	14	0	15	5.40	5.45	16.9%	13.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBWSH	17	0	18	5.45	5.54	17.1%	13.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command35

CompsBeck Wheeler (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Luis Mateo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%16.5%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%3.1%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	14	2	32	147	23	16	0	14%	2.3	10.6%	13.6%	-3.0%	0.0%	5.12	3.92	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	14	2	32	147	23	16	0	14%	2.3	15.6%	10.9%	4.8%	0.0%	5.12	3.16	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	12	10	61	239	55	21	1	83%	5.1	15.6%	11.0%	4.7%	0.6%	1.33	3.49	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	12	10	61	239	55	21	1	83%	5.1	23.0%	8.8%	14.2%	0.4%	1.33	2.54	—
2021	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	8	45	215	38	21	7	47%	2.7	13.1%	11.5%	1.6%	3.7%	4.96	5.46	—
2021	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	8	45	215	38	21	7	47%	2.7	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	3.3%	4.96	4.82	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	34	1	72	303	97	41	6	3%	2.1	24.7%	15.6%	9.1%	2.2%	3.36	4.21	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	34	1	72	303	97	41	6	3%	2.1	32.0%	13.5%	18.5%	2.0%	3.36	3.20	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	56	254	63	32	9	0%	1.4	19.3%	14.4%	4.9%	4.4%	6.47	5.70	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	56	254	63	32	9	0%	1.4	24.8%	12.6%	12.2%	3.5%	6.47	4.66	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	60	259	65	30	4	0%	1.4	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	1.8%	3.15	3.89	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	60	259	65	30	4	0%	1.4	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	1.8%	3.15	3.89	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	60	259	65	30	4	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.6%	13.5%	1.5%	3.15	3.30	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	38	0	44	210	41	28	6	0%	1.2	16.8%	12.0%	4.8%	3.3%	6.09	5.00	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	38	0	44	210	41	28	6	0%	1.2	16.8%	12.0%	4.8%	3.3%	6.09	5.00	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	38	0	44	210	41	28	6	0%	1.2	19.5%	13.3%	6.2%	2.9%	6.09	4.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	3.0%	5.43	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	39	0	41	175	30	23	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.2%	3.8%	3.2%	5.40	5.45	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	32	0	34	141	24	19	5	0%	1.0	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.3%	5.45	5.54	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	14	0	15	63	11	8	2	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.2%	3.8%	3.2%	5.40	5.45	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	17	0	18	76	13	10	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.3%	5.45	5.54	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	0	34	142	24	19	5	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.3%	5.43	5.12	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	113	30	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.3%	5.43	5.12	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		198	21	370	1627	292	211	39	11%	1.9	18.0%	13.0%	5.0%	2.4%	4.13	4.53	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	11	200	879	158	114	21	11%	1.9	18.0%	13.0%	5.0%	2.4%	4.13	4.53	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 44 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.00 (+0.29)K% 19.5% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.52%	—	×0.860	16.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×0.900	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.960	×1.100	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 21 IPFIP 5.39 → 5.58 (+0.19)K% 12.8% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.77%	—	×0.860	10.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×0.900	11.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.19%	÷0.986	×1.100	3.56%

Result: FIP 5.39 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 20 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.58 (+0.90)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.99%	—	×1.150	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.016	×1.250	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 19 IPFIP 1.39 → 2.11 (+0.72)K% 36.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.49%	—	×0.810	29.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.100	11.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 1.39 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 42 IPFIP 3.92 → 5.18 (+1.26)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.02%	—	×0.770	20.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.76%	—	×1.150	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷0.913	×1.250	3.49%

Result: FIP 3.92 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 13 IPFIP 6.67 → 7.44 (+0.77)K% 20.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.810	16.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.07%	—	×1.100	13.28%
HR / BF /BF	6.90%	÷1.115	×1.200	7.42%

Result: FIP 6.67 → 7.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 72 IPFIP 3.20 → 4.21 (+1.01)K% 32.0% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.01%	—	×0.770	24.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.53%	—	×1.150	15.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.114	×1.250	2.22%

Result: FIP 3.20 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFredericksburg Nationals · 45 IPFIP 4.63 → 5.46 (+0.83)K% 17.7% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.67%	—	×0.740	13.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.77%	—	×1.180	11.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷1.159	×1.300	3.65%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 132).

Result: FIP 4.63 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Romero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	16.5%	13.4%	3.0%	—	5.49	17.0%	3.8%	75	+0.06	—	—	—
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	83
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	83
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	82
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	81
Grant Black R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	14.0%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	5.49	15.9%	4.6%	79	+0.29	4.46	215	81
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	80
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	80
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	80
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	80
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	79
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	16.8%	13.3%	1.21	5.43
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*