Ben Ethridge

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	AMIN	25	13	78	2.99	3.53	19.5%	11.1%	—	K 14.4% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.45
2024	23	AMIN	34	0	66	3.84	4.78	17.5%	9.3%	—	K 13.0% · BB 11.0% · FIP 6.04
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.69	4.69	20.6%	10.1%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBMIN	12	0	13	4.68	4.69	20.8%	10.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBMIN	18	0	19	4.71	4.75	20.9%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsEmmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Taylor Grover (age 26) · Derek Gordon (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%20.6%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	25	13	78	323	63	36	4	52%	3.1	14.4%	13.2%	1.3%	1.7%	2.99	4.45	—
2023	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	25	13	78	323	63	36	4	52%	3.1	19.5%	11.1%	8.4%	1.2%	2.99	3.53	—
2024	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	34	0	66	280	49	26	10	0%	1.9	13.0%	11.0%	2.0%	4.8%	3.84	6.04	—
2024	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	34	0	66	280	49	26	10	0%	1.9	13.0%	11.0%	2.0%	4.8%	3.84	6.04	—
2024	23	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	34	0	66	280	49	26	10	0%	1.9	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	3.6%	3.84	4.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	35	0	37	155	32	16	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.69	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	30	0	32	135	28	14	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.71	4.75	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	12	0	13	55	11	6	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.1%	10.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.69	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	18	0	19	80	17	8	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.71	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	0	32	135	28	14	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.1%	10.8%	3.1%	4.70	4.35	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	87	25	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.1%	10.8%	3.1%	4.70	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		59	13	144	603	83	73	19	22%	2.4	13.7%	12.1%	1.6%	3.1%	3.38	5.19	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	18	200	838	115	102	26	22%	2.4	13.7%	12.1%	1.6%	3.1%	3.38	5.19	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 66 IPFIP 4.76 → 6.04 (+1.28)K% 17.5% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.740	12.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.29%	—	×1.180	10.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.962	×1.300	4.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.76 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 78 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.45 (+0.91)K% 19.5% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.50%	—	×0.740	14.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.15%	—	×1.180	13.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷0.976	×1.300	1.65%

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Ethridge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	20.6%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.72	20.9%	10.8%	68	+0.03	—	—	—
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	85
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	85
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	85
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	82
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	82
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	82
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	81
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	80
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	80
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	80
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	80
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	79
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	79
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	78
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	78
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	78
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	38	20.7%	10.1%	1.20	4.69
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*