Spencer Stockton
P
Louisville Bats
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%21.8%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | AZL Reds | 6 | 4 | 34 | 133 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 67% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 4.7% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 2.14 | 1.93 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | AZL Reds | 6 | 4 | 34 | 133 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 67% | 5.6 | 30.8% | 3.8% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 2.14 | 1.11 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 26 | 9 | 72 | 306 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 35% | 2.8 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 5.62 | 4.67 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 26 | 9 | 72 | 306 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 35% | 2.8 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 5.62 | 3.53 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 64 | 269 | 68 | 25 | 6 | 6% | 2.0 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 3.50 | 4.19 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 64 | 269 | 68 | 25 | 6 | 6% | 2.0 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 2.2% | 3.50 | 3.36 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 28 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 3.56 | 4.96 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 28 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.8% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 3.56 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 12 | 0 | 20 | 95 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.8% | 15.5% | -0.7% | 4.7% | 7.65 | 6.41 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 12 | 0 | 20 | 95 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 16.8% | 14.7% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 7.65 | 6.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.50 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 82 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 15 | 233 | 985 | 191 | 99 | 30 | 14% | 2.2 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 13 | 200 | 845 | 164 | 85 | 25 | 14% | 2.2 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Stockton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.88 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 20 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 76 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 74 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 74 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 73 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 72 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 72 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 72 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 72 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 72 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 72 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 71 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 71 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 71 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 71 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 71 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 70 |