Nathan Eovaldi — OGILVIE

Nathan Eovaldi P Texas Rangers

Age 36 RHP 6'2" / 217 lbs MLB Svc 14.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 3.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION135 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 83

ERA3.32

FIP3.27

K%24.6%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%19.1%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr-$64M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p8130.2%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

SI (7%)

CU (22%)

CT-2.0 (19%)

FB-6.7 (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2012

Service 14.076 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$1M
2027	Ext	$25M	+0.7	$3M	-$20M
Totals		$27M		$3M	-$21M

Options · projected decision
2028	PLAYER OPT	$25.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2029	PLAYER OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2030	CLUB OPT	$25.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$2.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	27	27	154	673	121	49	10	100%	5.7	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	1.4%	4.20	3.27	+3.1
2015	25	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	27	27	154	673	121	49	10	100%	5.7	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	1.5%	4.20	3.33	+3.0
2016	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	24	21	125	525	97	38	23	88%	5.2	18.5%	7.2%	11.2%	4.1%	4.76	4.71	+0.3
2016	26	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	24	21	125	525	97	38	23	88%	5.2	18.5%	7.2%	11.2%	4.4%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
2018	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	121	501	114	19	17	96%	4.7	22.2%	4.2%	18.0%	3.2%	4.31	3.49	+2.1
2018	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	121	501	114	19	17	96%	4.7	22.8%	3.8%	19.0%	3.4%	4.31	3.51	+2.0
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	12	69	306	73	36	16	50%	2.9	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	5.4%	5.90	5.59	-0.5
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	12	69	306	73	36	16	50%	2.9	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	5.2%	5.90	5.58	-0.5
2020	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	9	9	48	199	52	7	8	100%	5.4	26.1%	3.5%	22.6%	4.1%	3.72	3.60	+0.8
2020	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	9	9	48	199	52	7	8	100%	5.4	26.1%	3.5%	22.6%	4.0%	3.72	3.53	+0.8
2021	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	182	764	195	33	15	100%	5.7	25.5%	4.3%	21.2%	2.0%	3.75	2.60	+5.4
2021	31	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	32	182	764	195	33	15	100%	5.7	25.5%	4.3%	21.2%	2.0%	3.75	2.57	+5.5
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	115	490	111	22	23	100%	5.2	22.4%	4.3%	18.0%	4.7%	4.06	4.33	+0.8
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	115	490	111	22	23	100%	5.2	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	4.7%	4.06	4.34	+0.8
2023	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	25	25	144	577	132	47	15	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	2.4%	3.62	3.53	+2.4
2023	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	25	25	144	577	132	47	15	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	2.4%	3.62	3.53	+2.4
2023	33	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	25	25	144	577	132	47	15	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	2.6%	3.62	3.60	+2.3
2024	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	29	171	696	166	42	23	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.0%	17.8%	3.1%	3.80	3.54	+2.8
2024	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	29	171	696	166	42	23	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.0%	17.8%	3.1%	3.80	3.54	+2.8
2024	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	29	29	171	696	166	42	23	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.0%	17.8%	3.3%	3.80	3.64	+2.6
2025	35	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	22	22	130	496	129	20	10	100%	5.9	26.0%	4.0%	22.0%	1.9%	1.73	2.44	+4.1
2025	35	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	22	22	130	496	129	20	10	100%	5.9	26.0%	4.0%	22.0%	1.9%	1.73	2.44	+4.1
2025	35	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	22	22	130	496	129	20	10	100%	5.9	26.0%	4.0%	22.0%	2.0%	1.73	2.58	+3.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			256	240	1378	5715	1305	342	179	94%	5.4	22.8%	6.0%	16.9%	3.1%	3.86	3.64	+21.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	23	22	135	568	139	32	24	96%	5.9	24.5%	5.6%	18.8%	3.9%	4.19	3.90	+1.6
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	23	22	135	568	139	32	24	96%	5.9	24.5%	5.6%	18.8%	3.9%	4.19	3.90	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	36	MLB RAW	TEX	23	22	135	568	139	32	24	96%	5.9	24.5%	5.6%	18.8%	4.2%	4.19	4.07	+1.3
SO FAR	36	MLB RAW	TEX	23	22	135	568	139	32	24	96%	5.9	24.5%	5.6%	18.8%	4.2%	4.19	4.07	+1.3
ROS	36	MLB MLE	TEX	2	2	12	52	13	3	1	100%	6.2	24.6%	5.5%	19.1%	2.8%	3.32	3.27	+0.3
ROS	36	MLB CTX	TEX	2	2	12	51	12	3	2	100%	6.0	24.6%	5.5%	19.1%	3.0%	3.44	3.39	+0.2
2026 TOT	36	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	148	620	152	35	25	—	—	24.5%	5.6%	18.9%	4.1%	4.12	3.85	+1.9
FULL	36	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	148	624	152	35	26	—	—	24.4%	5.6%	18.8%	4.1%	4.13	4.00	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	115	484	114	30	19	100%	6.0	23.6%	6.2%	17.5%	3.8%	4.23	4.37	+0.7
2028	38	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	99	416	94	29	18	100%	6.2	22.5%	6.9%	15.6%	4.3%	4.57	4.80	+0.1
2027	37	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	115	486	115	30	20	100%	6.1	23.6%	6.2%	17.5%	4.1%	4.39	4.53	+0.7
2028	38	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	99	418	94	29	19	100%	6.2	22.5%	6.9%	15.6%	4.6%	4.75	4.98	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		294	278	1603	6668	1526	403	220	95%	5.5	22.9%	6.0%	16.8%	3.3%	3.95	3.74	+22.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	832	190	50	27	95%	5.5	22.9%	6.0%	16.8%	3.3%	3.95	3.74	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		263	246	1395	5795	1323	346	177	94%	5.3	22.8%	6.0%	16.9%	3.1%	3.92	3.60	+22.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	831	190	50	25	94%	5.3	22.8%	6.0%	16.9%	3.1%	3.92	3.60	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Eovaldi (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.41	25.1%	5.3%	2.5%	—	4.57	23.1%	16.6%	213	+1.16	—	—	—
Max Scherzer R 2020 · 3.27 FIP	36	SP	3.27	31.2%	7.5%	3.4%	.351	2.96	31.1%	25.5%	477	-0.31	2.13	1,822	59
Charlie Morton R 2020 · 3.09 FIP	36	SP	3.09	24.7%	5.9%	2.4%	.342	3.38	27.5%	18.4%	521	+0.29	2.52	1,534	55
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	54
Zack Greinke R 2020 · 2.69 FIP	36	SP	2.69	24.5%	3.3%	2.3%	.319	4.52	15.5%	10.9%	450	+1.83	2.56	1,517	53
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	50
Justin Verlander R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	36	SP	3.14	35.4%	5.0%	4.4%	.215	2.32	27.8%	23.4%	175	-0.82	2.32	1,584	46
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	43
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	43
Adam Wainwright R 2018 · 4.05 FIP	36	SP	4.05	22.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.303	3.83	20.7%	14.3%	444	-0.22	2.03	1,127	43
Josh Roenicke R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	34	SP	3.37	18.0%	5.8%	1.9%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	283	42
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	40
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	40
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	40
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	39
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	39
Roberto Hernandez R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP	4.38	13.8%	7.0%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	171	38
John Lackey R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	36	SP	3.51	19.5%	5.4%	2.5%	.291	4.34	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.83	3.51	577	38
Jason Hammel R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	35	SW	4.36	15.8%	6.0%	3.3%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	645	38
Kameron Loe R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	35	SP	3.38	17.1%	8.0%	1.3%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	201	36
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	36

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	115	23.9%	6.0%	1.34	4.03
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Braxton Garrett ('24)	1.6	80	23.1%	5.7%	1.04	3.98
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37