Nathan Eovaldi
P
Texas Rangers
Age 36
RHP
6'2" / 217 lbs
MLB
Svc 14.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 3.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION111 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 82
ERA3.48
FIP3.45
K%25.7%
BB%5.5%
K-BB%20.2%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 186 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p7025.9%
xwOBA vs
p540.308
SI (8%)
CU (22%)
CT-2.0 (20%)
FB-6.7 (21%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 27 | 27 | 154 | 673 | 121 | 49 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 1.4% | 4.20 | 3.26 | +3.9 |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 27 | 27 | 154 | 673 | 121 | 49 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 1.5% | 4.20 | 3.33 | +3.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 24 | 21 | 125 | 525 | 97 | 38 | 23 | 88% | 5.2 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 24 | 21 | 125 | 525 | 97 | 38 | 23 | 88% | 5.2 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 4.76 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 121 | 501 | 114 | 19 | 17 | 96% | 4.7 | 22.2% | 4.2% | 18.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.43 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 121 | 501 | 114 | 19 | 17 | 96% | 4.7 | 22.8% | 3.8% | 19.0% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 3.51 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 12 | 69 | 306 | 73 | 36 | 16 | 50% | 2.9 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 5.2% | 5.90 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 12 | 69 | 306 | 73 | 36 | 16 | 50% | 2.9 | 23.9% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 5.90 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 9 | 9 | 48 | 199 | 52 | 7 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.1% | 3.5% | 22.6% | 4.0% | 3.72 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 9 | 9 | 48 | 199 | 52 | 7 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.1% | 3.5% | 22.6% | 4.0% | 3.72 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 32 | 182 | 764 | 195 | 33 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.5% | 4.3% | 21.2% | 1.9% | 3.75 | 2.56 | +6.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 32 | 182 | 764 | 195 | 33 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.5% | 4.3% | 21.2% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 2.57 | +6.0 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 115 | 490 | 111 | 22 | 23 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.4% | 4.3% | 18.0% | 4.5% | 4.06 | 4.24 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 115 | 490 | 111 | 22 | 23 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.7% | 4.5% | 18.2% | 4.7% | 4.06 | 4.34 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 25 | 25 | 144 | 577 | 132 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.62 | 3.59 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 25 | 25 | 144 | 577 | 132 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 3.62 | 3.60 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 29 | 171 | 696 | 166 | 42 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 3.80 | 3.62 | +3.6 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 29 | 171 | 696 | 166 | 42 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 17.8% | 3.3% | 3.80 | 3.64 | +3.5 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 22 | 22 | 130 | 496 | 129 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 4.0% | 22.0% | 2.0% | 1.73 | 2.49 | +4.4 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 22 | 22 | 130 | 496 | 129 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 4.0% | 22.0% | 2.0% | 1.73 | 2.58 | +4.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 18 | 18 | 111 | 463 | 120 | 26 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.9% | 5.6% | 20.3% | 4.1% | 4.04 | 3.88 | +2.0 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 74 | 313 | 80 | 17 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.7% | 5.5% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 3.48 | 3.45 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 80 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.7% | 5.5% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 3.51 | 3.48 | +1.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 36 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 186 | 776 | 200 | 43 | 29 | — | — | 25.8% | 5.6% | 20.3% | 3.8% | 3.82 | 3.71 | +3.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 36 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 186 | 783 | 200 | 43 | 30 | — | — | 25.6% | 5.5% | 20.1% | 3.8% | 3.83 | 3.71 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 115 | 484 | 119 | 30 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 6.1% | 18.4% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 4.24 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 99 | 416 | 97 | 28 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.4% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 4.2% | 4.44 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 85 | 358 | 80 | 27 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 4.84 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 40 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 71 | 23 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 5.1% | 5.10 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 119 | 30 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 6.1% | 18.4% | 3.8% | 4.12 | 4.27 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 98 | 29 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.4% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 4.2% | 4.47 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 80 | 27 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.87 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 40 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 71 | 23 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 5.2% | 5.13 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 325 | 310 | 1799 | 7489 | 1733 | 461 | 253 | 95% | 5.5 | 23.1% | 6.2% | 17.0% | 3.4% | 3.98 | 3.78 | +34.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 34 | 200 | 833 | 193 | 51 | 28 | 95% | 5.5 | 23.1% | 6.2% | 17.0% | 3.4% | 3.98 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 258 | 242 | 1371 | 5690 | 1304 | 340 | 173 | 94% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 6.0% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 3.90 | 3.59 | +29.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 830 | 190 | 50 | 25 | 94% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 6.0% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 3.90 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nathan Eovaldi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.46 | 25.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.63 | 23.5% | 16.7% | 298 | +1.17 | — | — | — |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 49 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.10 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 164 | 42 |
| Max Scherzer R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.27 | 31.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .351 | 3.06 | 31.1% | 25.5% | 477 | -0.21 | 2.13 | 1,761 | 41 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.49 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 283 | 41 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.31 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 485 | 39 |
| Scott Feldman R 2024 · 4.64 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.64 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 297 | 39 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 38 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 37 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.47 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 214 | 37 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.42 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 359 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 577 | 37 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 36 |
| Zack Greinke R 2026 · 2.58 FIP | 36 | SP | 2.58 | 24.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.43 | 15.5% | 10.9% | 450 | +1.85 | 2.58 | 1,517 | 36 |
| Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.13 | 24.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .342 | 3.38 | 27.5% | 18.4% | 521 | +0.25 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 35 |
| Kameron Loe R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.47 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 201 | 35 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 34 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 34 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 34 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2023 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 33 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.07 | 13.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | .345 | 3.27 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 45 | +0.20 | 3.07 | 199 | 33 |
| Justin Verlander R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 36 | SP | 2.94 | 35.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | .215 | 2.24 | 27.8% | 23.4% | 175 | -0.70 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 32 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 100 | 23.9% | 6.5% | 1.50 | 4.28 |
| Mike Minor ('22) | 6 | 126 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 1.44 | 4.38 |
| Wei-Yin Chen ('19) | 5 | 110 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 1.43 | 4.49 |
| Domingo Germán ('24) | 6 | 88 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 1.65 | 4.58 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |
| Ian Kennedy ('22) | 7 | 115 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 1.64 | 4.32 |
| Félix Peña ('20) | 4 | 62 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.46 |