Felix Cepeda — OGILVIE

Felix Cepeda P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%18.5%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 1	4	4	6	31	10	7	0	100%	1.5	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.0%	1.50	3.24	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 1	4	4	6	31	10	7	0	100%	1.5	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.0%	1.50	3.27	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	10	8	38	171	29	20	4	80%	3.8	11.5%	14.6%	-3.1%	3.3%	6.16	5.78	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	10	8	38	171	29	20	4	80%	3.8	17.0%	11.7%	5.3%	2.3%	6.16	4.52	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	6	5	21	104	26	18	2	83%	3.6	17.0%	21.6%	-4.6%	2.8%	4.64	5.96	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	6	5	21	104	26	18	2	83%	3.6	25.0%	17.3%	7.7%	1.9%	4.64	4.41	—
2022	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	28	2	49	239	55	49	3	7%	1.8	17.0%	24.2%	-7.2%	1.9%	6.20	5.75	—
2022	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	28	2	49	239	55	49	3	7%	1.8	23.0%	20.5%	2.5%	1.3%	6.20	4.64	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	53	227	60	28	1	0%	1.6	19.8%	14.5%	5.4%	0.6%	2.38	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	53	227	60	28	1	0%	1.6	19.8%	14.5%	5.4%	0.6%	2.38	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	53	227	60	28	1	0%	1.6	26.4%	12.3%	14.1%	0.4%	2.38	2.67	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	30	0	42	195	37	19	6	0%	1.4	15.4%	10.7%	4.7%	3.6%	5.57	5.15	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	30	0	42	195	37	19	6	0%	1.4	15.4%	10.7%	4.7%	3.6%	5.57	5.15	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	30	0	42	195	37	19	6	0%	1.4	19.0%	9.7%	9.2%	3.1%	5.57	4.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	10	0	11	48	7	3	1	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	5.06	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	10	0	11	48	7	3	1	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	5.06	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A RAW	NYM	2	0	2	12	2	2	0	0%	1.1	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	11.57	3.80	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	NYM	7	0	7	33	5	1	1	0%	1.0	15.2%	3.0%	12.1%	3.0%	3.68	3.87	—
2026	26	AA RAW	NYM	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYM	35	0	37	157	30	17	5	0%	1.1	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	3.1%	4.94	4.95	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYM	13	0	14	59	11	6	2	0%	1.1	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	3.1%	4.94	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	11	6	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	3.1%	4.94	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	88	29	0%	1.1	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	3.1%	4.94	4.57	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		121	19	220	1015	170	169	22	16%	1.8	16.8%	16.7%	0.1%	2.2%	4.82	5.01	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	17	200	921	154	153	20	16%	1.8	16.8%	16.7%	0.1%	2.2%	4.82	5.01	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Felix Cepeda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	18.5%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.95	19.0%	8.0%	37	-0.03	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	87
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	83
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	82
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	82
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	82
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	82
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	82
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	81
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	81
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	81
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	18.8%	11.0%	1.18	4.96
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86