Felix Cepeda
P
Brooklyn Cyclones
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%21.5%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 32.3% | 22.6% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 1.50 | 3.24 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 32.3% | 22.6% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 1.50 | 3.27 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 10 | 8 | 38 | 171 | 29 | 20 | 4 | 80% | 3.8 | 11.5% | 14.6% | -3.1% | 3.3% | 6.16 | 5.78 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 10 | 8 | 38 | 171 | 29 | 20 | 4 | 80% | 3.8 | 17.0% | 11.7% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 6.16 | 4.52 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 6 | 5 | 21 | 104 | 26 | 18 | 2 | 83% | 3.6 | 17.0% | 21.6% | -4.6% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 6.04 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 6 | 5 | 21 | 104 | 26 | 18 | 2 | 83% | 3.6 | 25.0% | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 4.64 | 4.41 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 28 | 2 | 49 | 239 | 55 | 49 | 3 | 7% | 1.8 | 17.0% | 24.2% | -7.2% | 2.2% | 6.20 | 5.93 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 28 | 2 | 49 | 239 | 55 | 49 | 3 | 7% | 1.8 | 23.0% | 20.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 6.20 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 60 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.8% | 14.5% | 5.4% | 0.6% | 2.38 | 3.61 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 60 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.4% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 0.4% | 2.38 | 2.67 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 30 | 0 | 42 | 195 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.4% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.57 | 5.12 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 30 | 0 | 42 | 195 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 5.57 | 4.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 10 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 0 | 27 | 112 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.55 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 37 | 160 | 31 | 14 | 4 | — | — | 19.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 3.25 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.17 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.19 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 82 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 121 | 19 | 220 | 1015 | 170 | 169 | 23 | 16% | 1.8 | 16.8% | 16.7% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 4.82 | 5.06 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 17 | 200 | 921 | 154 | 153 | 21 | 16% | 1.8 | 16.8% | 16.7% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 4.82 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Felix Cepeda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.57 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 26 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 84 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 83 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 83 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 82 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 82 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 82 |
| Carter Rustad R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 82 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 81 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 81 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.24 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .370 | 4.72 | 14.0% | -5.3% | 27 | +0.48 | 3.04 | 219 | 81 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 81 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 80 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 80 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 80 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 80 |
| Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.82 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .313 | 4.72 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 84 | -0.10 | 4.36 | 194 | 80 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 1.18 | 4.55 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |