Jack Hartman

P FCL Rays

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	35	0	44	3.27	3.33	27.2%	8.2%	—	K 20.9% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.34
2025	27	AATB	34	0	46	2.14	3.51	21.7%	10.9%	—	K 17.6% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.29
2026	28	MIX2 levels	8	1	10	2.70	2.60	25.0%	12.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 12.5% · FIP 2.57
2027PROJ	29	MLBTB	—	—	0	5.13	5.13	17.7%	12.2%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	30	MLBTB	11	0	12	5.15	5.22	18.0%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ50% MLB	31	MLBTB	16	0	17	5.25	5.36	18.0%	12.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 4.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 60%

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Gregory Infante (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%17.7%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	0	19	93	19	16	2	0%	0.8	15.1%	20.3%	-5.2%	2.5%	6.27	5.78	—
2022	24	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	22	0	19	93	19	16	2	0%	0.8	20.4%	17.2%	3.2%	2.2%	6.27	5.03	—
2023	25	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	43	0	53	226	61	22	2	0%	1.2	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	1.1%	3.38	3.46	—
2023	25	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	43	0	53	226	61	22	2	0%	1.2	27.0%	9.7%	17.3%	0.9%	3.38	2.54	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	44	184	50	15	5	0%	1.3	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	3.4%	3.27	4.34	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	44	184	50	15	5	0%	1.3	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	3.4%	3.27	4.34	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	0	44	184	50	15	5	0%	1.3	27.2%	8.2%	19.0%	2.7%	3.27	3.33	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	34	0	46	184	40	20	3	0%	1.4	17.6%	12.0%	5.7%	2.1%	2.14	4.29	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	34	0	46	184	40	20	3	0%	1.4	17.6%	12.0%	5.7%	2.1%	2.14	4.29	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	34	0	46	184	40	20	3	0%	1.4	21.7%	10.9%	10.9%	1.6%	2.14	3.51	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	10	40	10	5	0	12%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.70	2.57	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	10	40	10	5	0	12%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.70	2.57	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	10	40	10	5	0	12%	1.2	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.70	2.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	12.2%	5.6%	2.9%	5.13	5.13	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	40	0	42	176	32	21	5	0%	1.0	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	3.1%	5.15	5.22	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	TB	32	0	34	142	25	17	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.3%	5.25	5.36	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	11	0	12	51	9	6	2	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	3.1%	5.15	5.22	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	TB	16	0	17	72	13	9	2	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.3%	5.25	5.36	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	0	29	124	22	15	4	0%	1.0	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.3%	5.21	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	102	27	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.3%	5.21	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		142	1	172	727	140	88	15	1%	1.2	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	2.1%	3.29	4.14	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	1	200	844	163	102	17	1%	1.2	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	2.1%	3.29	4.14	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Rays · 7 IPFIP 1.22 → 2.36 (+1.14)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.250	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.22 → 2.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 46 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.29 (+0.76)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.810	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.100	11.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷0.922	×1.200	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 26 IPFIP 3.06 → 4.10 (+1.04)K% 28.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.83%	—	×0.770	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.150	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.015	×1.250	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 17 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.72 (+0.88)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.19%	—	×0.810	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.100	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷0.958	×1.200	3.63%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 53 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.46 (+0.92)K% 27.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.99%	—	×0.740	19.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.180	11.49%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.075	×1.300	1.07%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ABradenton Marauders · 19 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.78 (+1.04)K% 20.4% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.43%	—	×0.740	15.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.20%	—	×1.180	20.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.111	×1.300	2.52%

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Hartman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	17.7%	12.2%	2.9%	—	5.28	18.0%	5.7%	75	+0.15	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	91
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	82
Santiago Casilla R 2009 · 4.44 FIP	29	SU	4.44	15.0%	9.4%	2.6%	.324	3.29	22.1%	13.0%	170	-1.15	2.76	647	81
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	81
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	81
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	81
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	80
Matt Lindstrom R 2009 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	17.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.320	3.16	17.7%	11.7%	154	-0.96	2.40	443	79
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	79
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	79
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	79
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	78
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	78
Kyle Snyder R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	16.9%	12.4%	2.9%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	236	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	17.9%	12.2%	1.20	5.17
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*