Jake Madden
P
Spokane Indians
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 185 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 103
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
K%21.9%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 20 | 20 | 79 | 373 | 80 | 48 | 11 | 100% | 4.0 | 15.9% | 15.2% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 5.90 | 5.22 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 20 | 20 | 79 | 373 | 80 | 48 | 11 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 5.90 | 4.70 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 43 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.1% | 15.2% | -1.1% | 1.3% | 3.71 | 4.57 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 43 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 0.9% | 3.71 | 3.45 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | COL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 133 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.04 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 88 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 20 | 134 | 611 | 95 | 93 | 13 | 36% | 2.4 | 15.5% | 15.2% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 4.90 | 4.92 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 30 | 200 | 912 | 142 | 138 | 20 | 36% | 2.4 | 15.5% | 15.2% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 4.90 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Madden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.42 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 32 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 86 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 84 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 83 |
| Trent Fennell R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 80 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 80 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 79 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 79 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 78 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 78 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.09 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .304 | 3.92 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 166 | -1.17 | 3.59 | 307 | 78 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 318 | 78 |
| Alex Valverde R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .321 | 6.00 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 166 | +2.28 | 3.72 | 423 | 77 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 77 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 77 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 77 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 77 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 77 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 76 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 76 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 32 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 1.12 | 4.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |