Justin Lange
P
Tampa Tarpons
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%23.5%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 9 | 9 | 22 | 102 | 29 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 2.4 | 19.3% | 18.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 6.95 | 4.55 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 9 | 9 | 22 | 102 | 29 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 2.4 | 28.4% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.0% | 6.95 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 12 | 12 | 36 | 172 | 51 | 30 | 2 | 100% | 3.0 | 20.2% | 21.8% | -1.6% | 1.4% | 6.44 | 4.95 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 12 | 12 | 36 | 172 | 51 | 30 | 2 | 100% | 3.0 | 29.7% | 17.4% | 12.2% | 1.2% | 6.44 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 85 | 394 | 131 | 63 | 8 | 100% | 4.1 | 24.7% | 18.8% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.63 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 85 | 394 | 131 | 63 | 8 | 100% | 4.1 | 33.2% | 16.0% | 17.3% | 2.0% | 4.75 | 3.46 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 11% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 5.40 | 5.26 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 11% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 5.40 | 5.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 60 | 252 | 59 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 60 | 255 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 60 | 255 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 58 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 55 | 233 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 52 | 219 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 204 | 47 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.0% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 50 | 299 | 1263 | 298 | 125 | 42 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.20 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 84 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 43 | 154 | 715 | 162 | 136 | 15 | 84% | 3.0 | 22.6% | 19.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 5.51 | 4.74 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 56 | 200 | 931 | 211 | 177 | 19 | 84% | 3.0 | 22.6% | 19.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 5.51 | 4.74 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Lange (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.30 | 24.0% | 14.4% | 180 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 84 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 84 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 82 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 81 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 81 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 79 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 78 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 78 |
| Sean Harney R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 77 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 76 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 76 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 75 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .310 | 4.16 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 194 | +0.63 | 3.53 | 352 | 75 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 75 |
| Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 312 | 74 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 74 |
| Mason McGwire R 2024 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 74 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 73 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 1.22 | 4.43 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |