Justin Lange
P
Tampa Tarpons
+0.7
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.3 · 2029
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%13.4%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 9 | 9 | 22 | 102 | 29 | 15 | 1 | 19.3% | 18.4% | 1.4% | 6.95 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 12 | 12 | 36 | 172 | 51 | 30 | 2 | 20.2% | 21.8% | 1.4% | 6.44 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 21 | 21 | 85 | 394 | 131 | 63 | 8 | 24.7% | 18.8% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.76 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 9 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 85 | 36 | 11 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 99 | 39 | 12 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.30 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 106 | 41 | 13 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 109 | 42 | 14 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 109 | 43 | 14 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 106 | 42 | 14 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 102 | 41 | 14 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 97 | 40 | 13 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 92 | 39 | 13 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 87 | 38 | 13 | 22.5% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 81 | 37 | 13 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 75 | 36 | 12 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 75 | 32 | 12 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 68 | 30 | 11 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 43 | 154 | 715 | 162 | 136 | 16 | 22.6% | 19.1% | 2.2% | 5.51 | 4.81 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 56 | 200 | 931 | 211 | 177 | 21 | 22.6% | 19.1% | 2.2% | 5.51 | 4.81 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Lange (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.28 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 312 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 89 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 89 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 89 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.92 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .277 | 4.93 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 274 | +0.01 | 4.04 | 448 | 88 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 88 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 87 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 87 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 86 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 86 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 86 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 86 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 86 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.60 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.28 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.32 | 2.16 | 615 | 85 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 85 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 85 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 85 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 84 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .261 | 4.22 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.44 | 3.50 | 368 | 84 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 84 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $6M | $31M | +$25M | ||