Matthew Thompson
P
Tennessee Smokies
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA5.01
FIP5.01
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%7.8%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 20 | 20 | 74 | 333 | 78 | 38 | 8 | 17.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 5.99 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 25 | 25 | 110 | 469 | 104 | 40 | 16 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 4.84 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 27 | 27 | 124 | 568 | 136 | 85 | 15 | 19.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 26 | 23 | 106 | 454 | 99 | 72 | 9 | 17.7% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 97 | 60 | 14 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.01 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 104 | 61 | 15 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 108 | 61 | 15 | 21.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 108 | 61 | 15 | 21.2% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 117 | 496 | 105 | 59 | 15 | 21.1% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 101 | 58 | 15 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 96 | 56 | 15 | 20.7% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 445 | 91 | 55 | 15 | 20.4% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 5.07 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 86 | 53 | 14 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 5.16 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 80 | 51 | 14 | 19.8% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 74 | 49 | 14 | 19.4% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 5.38 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 68 | 47 | 13 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 5.50 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 97 | 415 | 1832 | 332 | 262 | 62 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.22 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 47 | 200 | 882 | 160 | 126 | 30 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.22 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matthew Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.88 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 357 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 166 | -0.99 | 3.98 | 481 | 88 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 88 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 88 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .286 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 4.4% | 61 | +0.29 | 4.24 | 367 | 87 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 87 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 86 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 85 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 85 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 6.22 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 12 | +0.84 | 4.02 | 262 | 85 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 85 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 84 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.68 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .357 | 4.77 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.09 | 3.95 | 270 | 83 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 82 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 3.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 476 | 82 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2023 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.92 | 119 | 82 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 82 |
| Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.28 | 18.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.06 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 15 | -1.22 | 4.06 | 249 | 82 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 81 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 81 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$6M | ||