Matthew Thompson

P Tennessee Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	21	MIX2 levels	25	25	110	4.84	4.19	22.2%	8.5%	—	K 17.3% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.25
2023	22	AACWS	27	27	124	4.85	4.53	23.9%	15.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 16.5% · FIP 5.26
2024	23	MIX2 levels	26	23	106	4.77	4.38	21.8%	15.9%	—	K 17.7% · BB 16.9% · FIP 5.29
2025	24	No MLB games played
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	1	1	1	5.18	5.18	20.1%	13.9%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCHC	4	4	22	5.12	5.13	20.4%	13.5%	0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCHC	5	5	31	5.12	5.15	20.5%	13.3%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsDavid Lebron (age 25) · Zach Fruit (age 24) · Nic Swanson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%20.1%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	2	2	2	8	2	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	2	2	2	8	2	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	74	333	78	38	8	100%	3.7	17.6%	13.8%	3.7%	3.0%	5.99	5.03	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	74	333	78	38	8	100%	3.7	23.4%	11.4%	12.0%	2.4%	5.99	3.94	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	469	104	40	16	100%	4.4	17.3%	9.7%	7.6%	4.4%	4.84	5.25	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	110	469	104	40	16	100%	4.4	22.2%	8.5%	13.6%	3.4%	4.84	4.19	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	124	568	136	85	15	100%	4.6	19.4%	16.5%	2.9%	3.1%	4.85	5.26	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	27	27	124	568	136	85	15	100%	4.6	23.9%	15.0%	9.0%	2.6%	4.85	4.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	106	454	99	72	9	88%	4.1	17.7%	16.9%	0.8%	2.8%	4.77	5.29	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	106	454	99	72	9	88%	4.1	17.7%	16.9%	0.8%	2.8%	4.77	5.29	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	106	454	99	72	9	88%	4.1	21.8%	15.9%	5.9%	2.0%	4.77	4.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	20.1%	13.9%	6.2%	3.0%	5.18	5.18	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	59	250	51	34	8	100%	5.9	20.4%	13.5%	6.9%	3.0%	5.12	5.13	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	52	221	45	29	7	100%	5.8	20.5%	13.3%	7.2%	3.1%	5.12	5.15	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	47	200	41	27	7	100%	5.9	20.4%	13.4%	7.1%	3.3%	5.18	5.24	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	42	179	36	24	6	100%	6.1	20.2%	13.6%	6.6%	3.5%	5.30	5.40	0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	22	93	19	13	3	100%	5.5	20.4%	13.5%	6.9%	3.0%	5.12	5.13	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	31	131	27	17	4	100%	6.2	20.5%	13.3%	7.2%	3.1%	5.12	5.15	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	34	144	29	19	5	100%	5.7	20.4%	13.4%	7.1%	3.3%	5.18	5.24	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	33	139	28	19	5	100%	5.5	20.2%	13.6%	6.6%	3.5%	5.30	5.40	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	20	120	508	104	68	16	100%	6.0	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	3.2%	5.19	4.86	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	113	27	100%	6.0	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	3.2%	5.19	4.86	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		100	97	415	1832	332	262	61	97%	4.2	18.1%	14.3%	3.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.21	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	47	200	882	160	126	29	97%	4.2	18.1%	14.3%	3.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.21	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 105 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.29 (+0.99)K% 21.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.83%	—	×0.810	17.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.37%	—	×1.100	16.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.854	×1.200	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 124 IPFIP 4.42 → 5.26 (+0.84)K% 23.9% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.94%	—	×0.810	19.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.96%	—	×1.100	16.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷1.013	×1.200	3.13%

Result: FIP 4.42 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 84 IPFIP 4.40 → 5.57 (+1.17)K% 20.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.45%	—	×0.770	15.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.12%	—	×1.150	9.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷0.955	×1.250	4.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.40 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABirmingham Barons · 25 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.25 (+0.77)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.68%	—	×0.810	22.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.100	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷1.056	×1.200	3.04%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 72 IPFIP 3.76 → 5.03 (+1.27)K% 23.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.77%	—	×0.740	17.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.73%	—	×1.180	13.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷0.925	×1.300	3.04%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	20.1%	13.9%	3.0%	—	5.17	20.5%	7.1%	159	-0.01	—	—	—
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	83
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	81
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	81
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	80
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	80
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	78
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	78
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	78
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	78
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	77
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	76
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	76
Ben Meyer R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	26	SP	5.58	19.4%	13.1%	4.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	387	76
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	75
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	75
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	74
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	73
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	55	20.3%	13.6%	1.22	5.17
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*