Matthew Thompson

Matthew Thompson P Tennessee Smokies

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%19.0%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	2	2	2	8	2	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	2	2	2	8	2	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	74	333	78	38	8	100%	3.7	17.6%	13.8%	3.7%	3.0%	5.99	5.03	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	74	333	78	38	8	100%	3.7	23.4%	11.4%	12.0%	2.4%	5.99	3.94	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	469	104	40	16	100%	4.4	17.3%	9.7%	7.6%	4.4%	4.84	5.25	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	110	469	104	40	16	100%	4.4	22.2%	8.5%	13.6%	3.4%	4.84	4.19	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	124	568	136	85	15	100%	4.6	19.4%	16.5%	2.9%	3.1%	4.85	5.26	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	124	568	136	85	15	100%	4.6	19.4%	16.5%	2.9%	3.1%	4.85	5.26	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	27	27	124	568	136	85	15	100%	4.6	23.9%	15.0%	9.0%	2.6%	4.85	4.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	106	454	99	72	9	88%	4.1	17.7%	16.9%	0.8%	2.8%	4.77	5.29	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	106	454	99	72	9	88%	4.1	17.7%	16.9%	0.8%	2.8%	4.77	5.29	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	106	454	99	72	9	88%	4.1	21.8%	15.9%	5.9%	2.0%	4.77	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CHC	1	1	6	25	5	4	1	100%	6.0	19.0%	15.8%	3.2%	3.0%	5.51	5.51	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	95	402	79	60	12	100%	5.9	19.8%	14.9%	4.8%	3.0%	5.36	5.34	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	94	396	79	57	12	100%	5.9	19.9%	14.5%	5.5%	3.0%	5.28	5.29	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	91	384	76	55	12	100%	6.1	19.9%	14.3%	5.6%	3.1%	5.29	5.32	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	87	366	72	53	12	100%	6.2	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	3.3%	5.36	5.43	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	82	345	67	50	12	100%	5.8	19.4%	14.6%	4.7%	3.5%	5.51	5.61	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	42	177	35	26	5	100%	6.0	19.8%	14.9%	4.8%	3.0%	5.36	5.34	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	59	249	50	36	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	14.5%	5.5%	3.0%	5.28	5.29	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	69	291	58	42	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	14.3%	5.6%	3.1%	5.29	5.32	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	71	300	59	43	10	100%	5.9	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	3.3%	5.36	5.43	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	70	296	57	43	10	100%	5.8	19.4%	14.6%	4.7%	3.5%	5.51	5.61	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	311	1312	259	190	42	100%	6.0	19.7%	14.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.36	5.03	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	122	27	100%	6.0	19.7%	14.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.36	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		100	97	415	1832	332	262	61	97%	4.2	18.1%	14.3%	3.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.21	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	47	200	882	160	126	29	97%	4.2	18.1%	14.3%	3.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.21	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	19.0%	15.8%	3.0%	—	5.32	19.9%	5.3%	280	-0.19	—	—	—
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	88
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	84
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	83
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	80
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.96	17.9%	8.2%	286	-1.30	3.70	466	79
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	79
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	79
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	79
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	78
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	78
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	78
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	77
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	76
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	76
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.70	18.8%	3.1%	77	+0.03	3.95	270	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	88	19.6%	14.7%	1.21	5.38
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19