Matthew Thompson
P
Tennessee Smokies
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.07
FIP5.07
K%20.8%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP77
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 74 | 333 | 78 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 17.6% | 13.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.99 | 5.18 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 74 | 333 | 78 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 5.99 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 110 | 469 | 104 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 4.84 | 5.33 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 110 | 469 | 104 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.19 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 27 | 27 | 124 | 568 | 136 | 85 | 15 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 5.24 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 27 | 27 | 124 | 568 | 136 | 85 | 15 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.85 | 4.53 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 106 | 454 | 99 | 72 | 9 | 88% | 4.1 | 17.7% | 16.9% | 0.8% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 5.61 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 106 | 454 | 99 | 72 | 9 | 88% | 4.1 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 4.77 | 4.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 68 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 69 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 76 | 320 | 69 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 73 | 310 | 66 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 63 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 5.06 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 43 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 50 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 51 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 5.06 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 32 | 194 | 821 | 175 | 103 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 4.64 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 106 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 97 | 415 | 1832 | 332 | 262 | 65 | 97% | 4.2 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.33 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 47 | 200 | 882 | 160 | 126 | 31 | 97% | 4.2 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.33 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matthew Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.98 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 226 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .290 | 5.09 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 58 | +0.63 | 3.39 | 236 | 87 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 86 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 85 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 82 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 4.3% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 373 | 81 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 81 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 81 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 80 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 80 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 80 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 80 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 23.5% | 17.5% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.91 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 160 | +0.18 | 3.93 | 323 | 80 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 79 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.22 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .335 | 5.81 | 14.3% | -0.8% | 71 | +0.59 | 4.87 | 274 | 78 |
| Jaron DeBerry R 2024 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.03 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 175 | 78 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2023 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 78 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 78 |
| Justin Dunn R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.48 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .231 | 5.99 | 16.1% | 3.2% | 60 | +1.51 | 3.51 | 601 | 77 |
| Michael Wagner R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 77 |
| Kyle Funkhouser R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.07 | 19.9% | 14.8% | 1.4% | .361 | 4.47 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 86 | +0.40 | 3.45 | 387 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 75 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 1.23 | 5.01 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |