Jeter Martinez — OGILVIE

Jeter Martinez P Bradenton Marauders

+0.0 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2032

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.1%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.3%

IP56

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2032

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	10	8	47	179	55	20	1	20.9%	14.0%	0.7%	1.72	3.51	+0.8
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	13	11	40	184	49	31	1	18.1%	21.1%	1.0%	3.86	4.78	+0.1
2025	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	18	17	65	306	66	42	1	16.0%	16.2%	0.5%	7.06	4.06	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	2	2	5	22	5	5	0	—	—	—	5.79	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	PIT	56	—	56	235	50	28	6	21.1%	11.8%	2.6%	4.60	4.60	+0.2
2026 Total	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	60	257	55	33	6	21.2%	12.7%	2.4%	4.69	4.24	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	PIT	58	—	58	247	54	27	6	21.7%	10.8%	2.6%	4.48	4.41	+0.4
2028	22	MLB	PIT	11	11	61	259	59	26	7	22.8%	9.9%	2.5%	4.31	4.20	+0.5
2029	23	MLB	PIT	12	12	64	269	63	25	7	23.5%	9.3%	2.5%	4.15	4.05	+0.7
2030	24	MLB	PIT	12	12	65	275	66	25	7	24.1%	8.9%	2.5%	4.03	3.95	+0.8
2031	25	MLB	PIT	12	12	66	279	68	24	7	24.4%	8.7%	2.5%	3.94	3.88	+0.8
2032	26	MLB	PIT	12	12	66	279	69	24	7	24.6%	8.7%	2.5%	3.89	3.86	+0.9
2033	27	MLB	PIT	12	12	66	277	68	24	7	24.7%	8.7%	2.5%	3.88	3.87	+0.8
2034	28	MLB	PIT	12	12	64	272	67	24	7	24.6%	8.8%	2.5%	3.89	3.89	+0.8
2035	29	MLB	PIT	11	11	63	266	65	23	7	24.5%	8.8%	2.6%	3.92	3.94	+0.7
2036	30	MLB	PIT	11	11	61	258	63	23	7	24.3%	8.9%	2.6%	3.97	4.00	+0.7
2037	31	MLB	PIT	59	—	59	249	60	23	7	24.1%	9.1%	2.7%	4.03	4.07	+0.6
2038	32	MLB	PIT	57	—	57	239	57	22	7	23.8%	9.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.16	+0.5
2039	33	MLB	PIT	54	—	54	228	54	21	7	23.5%	9.4%	2.9%	4.20	4.26	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			43	38	156	691	125	118	5	18.0%	17.1%	0.7%	4.61	4.11	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—			55	49	200	884	160	151	6	18.0%	17.1%	0.7%	4.61	4.11	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeter Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	21.1%	11.8%	2.6%	—	4.21	22.7%	12.7%	183	-0.39	—	—	—
Jeffrey Rosa R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	20	SW	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	90
Jake Lyons R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	89
Luis Garcia R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SW	4.31	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.59	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.72	3.45	535	89
William Kempner R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	88
Jeisson Cabrera R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	194	88
Tanner McDougal R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	20	SW	4.94	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.82	22.1%	8.5%	221	-0.12	3.82	290	87
Beck Way R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.77	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.24	2.40	395	87
John Klein R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	17.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.287	3.72	19.4%	10.1%	207	-0.81	3.22	260	87
Blake Rivera R 2027 · 3.84 FIP	21	SW	3.84	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.89	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.05	3.71	179	87
Noble Meyer R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	20	SW	4.30	18.7%	14.8%	1.7%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	139	87
Jared Lyons R 2028 · 4.46 FIP	22	SW	4.46	20.1%	15.3%	2.0%	.345	3.71	19.8%	9.0%	115	-0.75	3.28	169	87
Frank German R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	86
Matt Keating R 2028 · 4.37 FIP	22	SW	4.37	23.3%	14.8%	2.5%	.346	4.44	22.2%	8.8%	118	+0.07	3.38	184	86
Nick Garcia R 2028 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	86
Tyler Vogel R 2028 · 4.87 FIP	22	SW	4.87	23.4%	14.3%	3.5%	.305	4.25	18.8%	7.4%	82	-0.62	3.84	147	86
Alec Barger R 2029 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	86
Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	20	SW	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	86
Danny Watson R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SW	4.31	18.5%	15.6%	1.5%	.263	4.06	20.6%	12.7%	157	-0.25	3.56	215	86
Isaac Stebens R 2028 · 4.14 FIP	22	SW	4.14	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.16	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.02	4.14	102	86
Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	21	SW	4.85	16.0%	13.4%	2.6%	.305	5.51	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.66	4.85	108	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$4M	+$1M
Totals		$8M		$23M	+$15M