Jeter Martinez — OGILVIE

Jeter Martinez P Bradenton Marauders

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 126

ERA5.76

FIP5.76

K%17.7%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%-1.0%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	10	8	47	179	55	20	1	80%	4.7	20.9%	14.0%	6.9%	0.8%	1.72	3.52	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	10	8	47	179	55	20	1	80%	4.7	20.9%	14.0%	6.9%	0.8%	1.72	3.52	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	10	8	47	179	55	20	1	80%	4.7	30.7%	11.2%	19.6%	0.6%	1.72	2.31	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	13	11	40	184	49	31	1	85%	3.1	18.1%	21.1%	-3.0%	0.9%	3.86	4.72	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	13	11	40	184	49	31	1	85%	3.1	18.1%	21.1%	-3.0%	0.9%	3.86	4.72	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	13	11	40	184	49	31	1	85%	3.1	26.6%	16.8%	9.8%	0.5%	3.86	3.30	—
2025	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	17	65	306	66	42	1	94%	3.6	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	0.5%	7.06	4.05	—
2025	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	17	65	306	66	42	1	94%	3.6	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	0.5%	7.06	4.05	—
2025	19	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	17	65	306	66	42	1	94%	3.6	21.6%	13.7%	7.8%	0.3%	7.06	3.21	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	19	16	64	296	61	40	8	84%	3.4	15.2%	15.9%	-0.7%	3.5%	6.02	5.76	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	19	16	64	296	61	40	8	84%	3.4	15.2%	15.9%	-0.7%	3.5%	6.02	5.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	PIT	19	16	64	296	61	40	8	84%	3.4	20.6%	13.5%	7.1%	2.7%	6.02	4.55	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	66	280	53	46	7	100%	4.7	19.1%	16.4%	2.7%	2.6%	5.46	5.35	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	70	293	60	43	7	100%	5.0	20.5%	14.7%	5.8%	2.5%	5.15	5.00	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	72	304	65	41	8	100%	5.5	21.3%	13.6%	7.8%	2.5%	4.91	4.77	+0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	74	312	68	40	8	100%	5.7	21.9%	12.9%	9.1%	2.5%	4.74	4.63	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	75	316	70	40	8	100%	5.8	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	2.5%	4.62	4.54	+0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	75	316	71	39	8	100%	6.2	22.5%	12.5%	10.1%	2.5%	4.56	4.52	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	74	311	70	39	8	100%	6.1	22.5%	12.6%	10.0%	2.5%	4.56	4.55	+0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	72	302	68	38	8	100%	6.0	22.4%	12.7%	9.7%	2.6%	4.61	4.64	+0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	68	288	64	37	8	100%	6.2	22.1%	12.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.71	4.77	+0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	64	271	59	36	8	100%	5.8	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	3.0%	4.85	4.95	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	33	139	27	23	3	100%	4.7	19.1%	16.4%	2.7%	2.4%	5.35	5.24	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	51	215	44	32	5	100%	5.1	20.5%	14.7%	5.8%	2.3%	5.05	4.90	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	61	258	55	35	6	100%	5.5	21.3%	13.6%	7.8%	2.3%	4.81	4.67	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	66	279	61	36	6	100%	5.5	21.9%	12.9%	9.1%	2.3%	4.64	4.53	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	69	291	65	36	7	100%	5.8	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	2.3%	4.52	4.44	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	70	296	67	37	7	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.5%	10.1%	2.3%	4.46	4.42	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	70	296	67	37	7	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.6%	10.0%	2.3%	4.46	4.45	+0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	68	287	64	36	7	100%	6.2	22.4%	12.7%	9.7%	2.4%	4.50	4.53	+0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	65	274	61	35	7	100%	5.9	22.1%	12.9%	9.2%	2.6%	4.60	4.66	+0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	61	258	56	34	7	100%	6.1	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	2.8%	4.73	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	107	612	2584	564	341	62	100%	5.7	21.8%	13.2%	8.7%	2.4%	4.66	4.24	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	184	111	20	100%	5.7	21.8%	13.2%	8.7%	2.4%	4.66	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		60	52	216	965	165	161	15	87%	3.6	17.1%	16.6%	0.4%	1.5%	5.00	4.61	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	48	200	894	152	149	14	87%	3.6	17.1%	16.6%	0.4%	1.5%	5.00	4.61	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeter Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.76	17.7%	18.6%	2.6%	—	5.03	20.3%	5.5%	208	-0.73	—	—	—
Moises Nova R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.05	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.56	3.42	219	85
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	84
Juan De La Cruz R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP	5.20	14.6%	17.7%	2.0%	.331	5.01	19.1%	-0.6%	136	-0.19	3.37	220	83
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	83
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	83
Hunter Stratton R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.69	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.04	3.02	527	83
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	83
Enrique Segura R 2023 · 6.44 FIP	18	SP	6.44	13.2%	21.3%	3.2%	.269	5.60	16.4%	2.4%	234	-0.84	4.12	313	83
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	82
Raudy Rivera R 2023 · 5.92 FIP	18	SP	5.92	19.2%	31.6%	0.8%	.321	5.34	22.7%	-0.8%	75	-0.58	3.65	111	82
Justin Lange R 2022 · 5.00 FIP	20	SP	5.00	20.2%	21.8%	1.5%	.303	4.73	24.7%	5.9%	85	-0.27	4.55	144	82
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	81
Wellington Aracena R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	18	SP	5.11	17.2%	15.8%	2.7%	.273	4.20	19.8%	3.0%	236	-0.91	3.20	304	81
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	81
Jackson Cox R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP	4.57	15.9%	15.8%	1.5%	.389	5.18	22.3%	12.6%	182	+0.61	4.57	213	81
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	81
Jol Concepcion R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP	4.86	14.5%	17.9%	1.3%	.219	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	154	80
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	80
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	68	21.5%	13.6%	1.00	4.86
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04