Jeter Martinez — OGILVIE

Jeter Martinez P Bradenton Marauders

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%17.7%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%0.5%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	10	8	47	179	55	20	1	80%	4.7	20.9%	14.0%	6.9%	0.7%	1.72	3.51	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	10	8	47	179	55	20	1	80%	4.7	30.7%	11.2%	19.6%	0.6%	1.72	2.31	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	13	11	40	184	49	31	1	85%	3.1	18.1%	21.1%	-3.0%	1.0%	3.86	4.81	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	13	11	40	184	49	31	1	85%	3.1	26.6%	16.8%	9.8%	0.5%	3.86	3.30	—
2025	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	18	17	65	306	66	42	1	94%	3.6	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	0.5%	7.06	4.07	—
2025	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	18	17	65	306	66	42	1	94%	3.6	21.6%	13.7%	7.8%	0.3%	7.06	3.21	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	57	260	55	35	4	88%	3.6	15.7%	15.9%	-0.2%	2.0%	4.87	4.89	-0.2
ROS	20	MLB	PIT	8	8	39	164	29	28	4	100%	4.9	17.7%	17.2%	0.5%	2.6%	5.58	5.58	-0.5
ROS	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	17.2%	0.5%	2.6%	5.57	5.57	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	96	424	84	63	8	—	—	19.8%	14.9%	4.9%	1.9%	5.15	5.17	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	PIT	8	8	41	172	33	26	4	100%	5.1	19.1%	15.3%	3.8%	2.6%	5.31	5.22	-0.3
2028	22	MLB	PIT	8	8	43	181	37	25	5	100%	5.3	20.5%	13.8%	6.6%	2.5%	5.03	4.90	-0.2
2029	23	MLB	PIT	8	8	44	187	40	24	5	100%	5.5	21.3%	12.9%	8.4%	2.5%	4.81	4.69	-0.1
2030	24	MLB	PIT	8	8	46	192	42	24	5	100%	5.7	21.9%	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	4.66	4.56	-0.0
2031	25	MLB	PIT	8	8	46	195	43	24	5	100%	5.8	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	2.5%	4.56	4.49	+0.0
2032	26	MLB	PIT	8	8	46	195	44	23	5	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	2.5%	4.50	4.46	+0.0
2033	27	MLB	PIT	8	8	45	192	43	23	5	100%	5.7	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.5%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
2034	28	MLB	PIT	7	7	44	186	42	23	5	100%	6.3	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	2.6%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2027	21	MLB	PIT	4	4	20	84	16	13	2	100%	5.0	19.1%	15.3%	3.8%	2.5%	5.30	5.21	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	PIT	6	6	31	131	27	18	3	100%	5.2	20.5%	13.8%	6.6%	2.5%	5.02	4.89	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	PIT	7	7	37	156	33	20	4	100%	5.3	21.3%	12.9%	8.4%	2.5%	4.80	4.68	-0.1
2030	24	MLB	PIT	7	7	41	173	38	21	4	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	4.65	4.55	-0.0
2031	25	MLB	PIT	7	7	42	177	40	21	4	100%	6.0	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	2.5%	4.55	4.48	+0.0
2032	26	MLB	PIT	7	7	43	182	41	22	4	100%	6.1	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	2.5%	4.49	4.45	+0.0
2033	27	MLB	PIT	7	7	43	182	41	22	5	100%	6.1	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.5%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2034	28	MLB	PIT	7	7	42	177	40	22	5	100%	6.0	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	2.6%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			53	53	299	1264	276	160	32	100%	5.7	21.8%	12.6%	9.2%	2.5%	4.68	4.24	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	184	107	21	100%	5.6	21.8%	12.6%	9.2%	2.5%	4.68	4.24	+2.7
Career	—			57	50	209	929	160	155	10	88%	3.7	17.3%	16.6%	0.6%	1.1%	4.65	4.34	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—			55	48	200	889	153	148	10	88%	3.7	17.3%	16.6%	0.6%	1.1%	4.65	4.34	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeter Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	17.7%	17.2%	2.6%	—	4.93	20.3%	6.3%	128	-0.65	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP	4.86	16.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.311	6.15	21.4%	4.1%	64	+1.29	4.16	109	87
Shane Panzini R 2026 · 5.42 FIP	20	SP	5.42	17.3%	15.8%	3.2%	.335	4.94	18.5%	5.5%	251	-0.48	4.58	338	86
Moises Nova R 2026 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.02	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.59	3.42	219	85
Tanner McDougal R 2026 · 5.23 FIP	20	SP	5.23	19.7%	16.9%	3.0%	.285	5.09	22.0%	8.4%	233	-0.14	3.96	302	85
Jeferson Figueroa R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP	5.28	17.1%	15.6%	3.0%	.232	4.88	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.40	4.66	249	85
Steven Brooks R 2028 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.6%	17.9%	3.0%	.268	4.80	25.0%	9.8%	40	-0.81	4.80	103	84
Ismael Agreda R 2026 · 5.23 FIP	20	SP-	5.23	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.73	21.9%	5.3%	145	-0.50	3.35	239	84
Darlin Saladin R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.98	18.8%	7.8%	255	-1.00	2.91	388	83
Nolan Perry R 2026 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.24	29.0%	19.3%	52	-1.64	3.24	136	83
Edelvis Perez R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	20	SP	5.22	16.8%	21.6%	1.5%	.255	5.79	19.6%	2.8%	24	+0.57	5.19	103	83
Ryan Harvey R 2028 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	82
Angel Rivero R 2025 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	19.9%	16.7%	2.8%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	105	82
Henry Williams R 2027 · 5.43 FIP	21	SP	5.43	16.5%	14.2%	3.5%	.271	4.77	16.7%	6.5%	293	-0.66	4.06	360	82
Hunter Stratton R 2026 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.58	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.15	2.95	532	82
Joey Oakie R 2026 · 5.67 FIP	20	SP	5.67	18.9%	22.6%	2.4%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	105	82
Ryan Degges R 2028 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	15.1%	16.7%	2.8%	.296	6.74	21.2%	5.9%	21	+1.24	5.50	102	82
Gage Stanifer R 2026 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.2%	21.4%	2.3%	.318	3.85	26.3%	12.6%	170	-1.79	2.92	273	82
Jared Lyons R 2028 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	20.1%	15.3%	1.9%	.345	3.85	19.6%	10.9%	164	-0.55	3.27	218	82
Kyle Larsen R 2027 · 5.50 FIP	21	SP-	5.50	15.8%	17.9%	2.7%	.274	5.00	20.2%	6.7%	77	-0.50	4.71	137	82
Jake Madden R 2027 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP	5.22	15.9%	15.2%	2.8%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.65	4.57	123	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	44	21.2%	13.3%	0.98	4.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Greg Holland ('21)	6	45	25.4%	12.3%	0.87	4.03
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Jake Diekman ('24)	9	51	28.6%	13.8%	0.91	4.07
Fernando Rodney ('19)	5	59	24.6%	11.8%	0.88	4.21