Henry Williams — OGILVIE

Henry Williams P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION127 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%17.3%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD4550

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	66	283	63	34	9	100%	3.9	16.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.8%	4.88	5.59	—
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	66	283	63	34	9	100%	3.9	16.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.8%	4.88	5.59	—
2023	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	66	283	63	34	9	100%	3.9	22.3%	12.0%	10.2%	3.2%	4.88	4.50	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	21	103	422	92	39	8	95%	4.7	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	2.5%	3.68	4.39	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	21	103	422	92	39	8	95%	4.7	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	2.5%	3.68	4.39	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	21	103	422	92	39	8	95%	4.7	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	1.9%	3.68	3.46	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	116	505	106	44	12	91%	5.1	17.5%	8.6%	9.0%	2.7%	4.64	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	116	505	106	44	12	91%	5.1	17.5%	8.6%	9.0%	2.7%	4.64	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	116	505	106	44	12	91%	5.1	21.0%	8.7%	12.3%	2.4%	4.64	3.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	27	25	127	583	114	62	22	93%	4.7	16.1%	10.0%	6.2%	4.3%	5.81	5.34	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	27	25	127	583	114	62	22	93%	4.7	16.1%	10.0%	6.2%	4.3%	5.81	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	KC	7	7	34	146	24	12	6	100%	4.9	16.4%	8.2%	8.2%	4.1%	4.72	5.01	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	KC	20	18	93	437	90	50	16	90%	4.6	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	6.22	4.82	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	11	48	8	5	1	100%	5.7	17.3%	9.5%	7.7%	2.8%	4.79	4.79	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	17.3%	9.5%	7.7%	2.6%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	138	631	122	67	23	—	—	19.4%	10.5%	8.8%	3.7%	5.73	5.29	-0.6
FULL	24	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	17.3%	9.5%	7.7%	2.6%	4.67	4.29	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	150	633	118	57	18	100%	5.8	18.7%	9.1%	9.6%	2.8%	4.66	4.61	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	157	663	129	59	19	100%	6.0	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	2.9%	4.57	4.53	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	159	670	131	60	20	100%	6.1	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.55	4.55	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	159	670	131	61	20	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.0%	10.5%	3.0%	4.60	4.63	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	152	640	124	59	20	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.70	4.76	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	142	601	114	58	20	100%	5.9	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	3.4%	4.84	4.94	-0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	133	561	104	56	20	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.14	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	72	304	57	28	8	100%	6.0	18.7%	9.1%	9.6%	2.6%	4.54	4.49	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	109	460	90	41	12	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	2.6%	4.45	4.41	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	125	528	104	47	14	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	135	570	111	52	16	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.51	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	134	566	109	52	17	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.57	4.63	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	129	545	103	52	17	100%	5.9	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.70	4.80	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	122	515	96	51	17	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	3.3%	4.87	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	138	827	3493	671	324	101	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.24	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	78	24	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		89	84	412	1793	300	186	59	94%	4.6	16.7%	10.4%	6.3%	3.3%	4.80	4.82	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	870	146	90	29	94%	4.6	16.7%	10.4%	6.3%	3.3%	4.80	4.82	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henry Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	17.3%	9.5%	2.8%	—	4.56	19.3%	10.3%	466	-0.23	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	92
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	90
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	88
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	87
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	87
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	87
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	86
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	86
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	86
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	86
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	86
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	85
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	85
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	85
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	85
Mark Appel R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.2%	9.5%	2.5%	.304	4.87	14.9%	1.1%	120	+0.58	4.22	363	85
DJ Baxendale R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP	3.79	14.5%	8.6%	1.5%	.316	3.06	17.2%	11.3%	259	-0.73	2.88	426	85
Jose Reyes R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP	4.25	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	.289	5.11	11.0%	2.8%	100	+0.86	4.25	225	85
Tyler Woessner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP	4.10	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.29	17.6%	4.0%	76	+1.19	4.10	197	85
Anthony Ranaudo R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	15.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.304	5.10	15.5%	9.4%	141	+0.68	4.42	275	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	148	19.0%	9.3%	1.19	4.71
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14