Henry Williams

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#730ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+KC	22	21	103	3.68	3.46	21.8%	9.2%	—	K 16.8% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.39
2025	23	MIX2 levels	23	21	116	4.64	3.75	21.0%	8.7%	—	K 17.5% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.16
2026	24	MIX2 levels	28	26	132	5.73	4.88	19.9%	10.4%	—	K 16.9% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	3	3	15	5.11	5.11	17.1%	9.5%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBKC	12	12	73	4.84	4.81	18.4%	9.3%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBKC	13	13	76	4.79	4.80	18.7%	9.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsChandler Champlain (age 25) · Blayne Weller (age 25) · Carlos Pimentel (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%17.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP152

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	66	283	63	34	9	100%	3.9	16.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.8%	4.88	5.59	—
2023	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	66	283	63	34	9	100%	3.9	22.3%	12.0%	10.2%	3.2%	4.88	4.50	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	21	103	422	92	39	8	95%	4.7	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	2.5%	3.68	4.39	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	21	103	422	92	39	8	95%	4.7	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	2.5%	3.68	4.39	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	21	103	422	92	39	8	95%	4.7	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	1.9%	3.68	3.46	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	116	505	106	44	12	91%	5.1	17.5%	8.6%	9.0%	2.7%	4.64	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	116	505	106	44	12	91%	5.1	17.5%	8.6%	9.0%	2.7%	4.64	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	116	505	106	44	12	91%	5.1	21.0%	8.7%	12.3%	2.4%	4.64	3.75	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	132	603	120	63	22	93%	4.7	16.9%	9.8%	7.1%	4.1%	5.73	5.17	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	132	603	120	63	22	93%	4.7	16.9%	9.8%	7.1%	4.1%	5.73	5.17	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	132	603	120	63	22	93%	4.7	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.6%	5.73	4.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	3	3	15	63	11	6	2	100%	5.0	17.1%	9.5%	7.6%	3.4%	5.11	5.11	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	152	642	118	60	22	100%	6.1	18.4%	9.3%	9.1%	3.4%	4.98	4.95	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	115	487	91	45	17	100%	6.1	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	3.4%	4.93	4.94	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	110	464	87	43	16	100%	6.1	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	3.5%	4.95	4.99	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	101	428	80	41	15	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.5%	9.0%	3.6%	5.03	5.10	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	92	388	71	38	15	100%	6.1	18.2%	9.8%	8.4%	3.8%	5.18	5.28	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	57	29	10	100%	6.1	18.4%	9.3%	9.1%	3.1%	4.84	4.81	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	76	321	60	30	10	100%	5.8	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	3.1%	4.79	4.80	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	85	359	67	34	12	100%	6.1	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.81	4.85	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	84	355	66	34	12	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.5%	9.0%	3.3%	4.88	4.95	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	80	338	62	33	12	100%	6.2	18.2%	9.8%	8.4%	3.5%	5.02	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	398	1680	311	159	55	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.5%	9.1%	3.3%	4.87	4.53	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	80	28	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.5%	9.1%	3.3%	4.87	4.53	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		90	85	417	1813	308	187	59	94%	4.6	17.0%	10.3%	6.7%	3.3%	4.79	4.77	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	869	148	90	28	94%	4.6	17.0%	10.3%	6.7%	3.3%	4.79	4.77	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 98 IPFIP 4.66 → 4.96 (+0.30)K% 21.0% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.01%	—	×0.860	18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.16%	—	×0.900	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	3.50%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.66 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 34 IPFIP 5.01 → 5.83 (+0.82)K% 16.4% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.44%	—	×0.810	13.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×1.100	9.04%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.93%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.01 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 108 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.16 (+0.60)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.65%	—	×0.810	17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.79%	—	×1.100	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.077	×1.200	2.65%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 8 IPFIP 5.55 → 5.61 (+0.05)K% 14.0% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.95%	—	×0.860	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.60%	—	×0.900	16.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.55%

Result: FIP 5.55 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 103 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.39 (+0.92)K% 21.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.80%	—	×0.770	16.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.24%	—	×1.150	10.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷0.959	×1.250	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 66 IPFIP 4.49 → 5.59 (+1.10)K% 22.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.26%	—	×0.740	16.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.01%	—	×1.180	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷1.089	×1.300	3.80%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 4.49 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henry Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.96	18.6%	9.3%	377	-0.15	—	—	—
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	88
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	86
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	85
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	84
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	83
Jordan Romano R 2018 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.7%	7.9%	3.3%	.274	3.78	31.7%	22.0%	131	-0.65	2.40	692	83
David Hess R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	17.5%	8.5%	3.6%	.267	5.99	20.8%	13.3%	187	+1.30	3.97	751	83
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	83
Shao-Ching Chiang R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	575	83
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	83
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	82
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	82
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	82
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	81
Mike Vasil R 2024 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP	5.03	15.4%	7.7%	4.1%	.310	3.89	19.4%	8.3%	101	-1.14	3.63	429	81
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	81
Ryan Hawks R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	13.6%	7.3%	4.4%	.303	5.12	13.6%	4.3%	221	-0.14	4.78	342	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	120	18.2%	9.5%	1.35	5.03
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Adam Eaton ('09)	5.9	118	16.5%	8.7%	1.28	4.94
Dennis Rasmussen ('83-'95, 10 WAR*)	7.3	146	17.7%*	8.3%*	1.41*	4.53*