Henry Williams
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.9 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%17.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%8.0%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 17 | 17 | 66 | 283 | 63 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.5% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 5.43 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 17 | 17 | 66 | 283 | 63 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 3.9 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.50 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 22 | 21 | 103 | 422 | 92 | 39 | 8 | 95% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 3.68 | 4.45 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 22 | 21 | 103 | 422 | 92 | 39 | 8 | 95% | 4.7 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.46 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 116 | 505 | 106 | 44 | 12 | 91% | 5.1 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.64 | 4.06 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 116 | 505 | 106 | 44 | 12 | 91% | 5.1 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 4.64 | 3.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 18 | 16 | 82 | 376 | 68 | 42 | 17 | 89% | 4.6 | 15.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.01 | 6.12 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 149 | 658 | 117 | 68 | 25 | — | — | 17.7% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 5.43 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 7 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 17.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 24 | 24 | 138 | 583 | 109 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.56 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 114 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.48 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 113 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 132 | 556 | 109 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 103 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 118 | 499 | 95 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 79 | 35 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.43 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 90 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 92 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 91 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 86 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 102 | 607 | 2562 | 494 | 229 | 74 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.20 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 75 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 80 | 75 | 368 | 1586 | 264 | 173 | 53 | 94% | 4.6 | 16.7% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.90 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 41 | 200 | 863 | 144 | 94 | 29 | 94% | 4.6 | 16.7% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Henry Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.52 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 412 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 91 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 88 |
| Brady Feigl R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.81 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 122 | +1.96 | 3.81 | 257 | 87 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 157 | +0.52 | 4.04 | 402 | 87 |
| Tyler Herb R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.32 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.89 | 15.7% | 7.0% | 378 | +0.57 | 3.87 | 867 | 87 |
| Blayne Weller R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 16.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .326 | 5.67 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 103 | +1.52 | 4.15 | 254 | 87 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.50 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.44 | 3.73 | 725 | 86 |
| Carlos Pimentel R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.56 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .266 | 4.17 | 15.8% | 5.8% | 158 | -0.39 | 4.14 | 301 | 86 |
| Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.72 | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 5.48 | 14.6% | 3.7% | 67 | +0.76 | 4.72 | 304 | 85 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.59 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.79 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.20 | 4.21 | 347 | 85 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 85 |
| Sam Armstrong R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 15.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .282 | 5.93 | 14.8% | 3.5% | 73 | +1.50 | 4.05 | 332 | 85 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .263 | 4.58 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.12 | 4.16 | 269 | 85 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.04 | 15.8% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .310 | 3.87 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 101 | -1.17 | 3.71 | 429 | 85 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.09 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.23 | 3.09 | 129 | 85 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .314 | 4.66 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 181 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 316 | 85 |
| Jose Reyes R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.03 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.81 | 4.22 | 225 | 85 |
| Mark Appel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.21 | 16.2% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.86 | 14.9% | 1.1% | 120 | +0.65 | 4.17 | 363 | 84 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.66 | 14.5% | 8.6% | 1.3% | .316 | 3.08 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 259 | -0.58 | 2.81 | 426 | 83 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.77 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .279 | 4.10 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 216 | +0.33 | 3.74 | 459 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 132 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 1.14 | 4.62 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |