Henry Williams
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.8
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.3 · 2028
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%10.2%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 17 | 17 | 66 | 283 | 63 | 34 | 9 | 16.5% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 4.88 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 22 | 21 | 103 | 422 | 92 | 39 | 8 | 16.8% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 23 | 21 | 116 | 505 | 106 | 44 | 12 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 3 | 3 | 13 | 66 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 9.8% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 8.10 | 5.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 84 | 40 | 12 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 116 | 498 | 92 | 47 | 14 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 99 | 43 | 14 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 107 | 45 | 15 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 111 | 46 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 111 | 46 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 108 | 46 | 15 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 103 | 45 | 15 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 98 | 44 | 15 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 111 | 467 | 93 | 43 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 88 | 42 | 14 | 19.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 82 | 40 | 14 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 76 | 39 | 14 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.02 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 69 | 37 | 13 | 18.5% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 5.15 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 62 | 299 | 1276 | 212 | 136 | 37 | 16.7% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.64 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 42 | 200 | 854 | 142 | 91 | 25 | 16.7% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Henry Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.41 | 20.6% | 11.9% | 364 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 95 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 94 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 94 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 90 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 90 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 90 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 89 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 89 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 89 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 89 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 89 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 89 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 89 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 89 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 89 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 89 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 89 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $11M | $52M | +$41M | ||