Luis Hernandez — OGILVIE

Luis Hernandez P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%22.8%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	10	45	196	48	22	4	83%	3.8	16.7%	14.0%	2.6%	2.7%	3.60	4.94	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	12	10	45	196	48	22	4	83%	3.8	24.5%	11.2%	13.3%	2.0%	3.60	3.59	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	1	28	131	39	17	1	8%	2.4	20.2%	16.2%	4.0%	1.2%	3.81	4.09	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	1	28	131	39	17	1	8%	2.4	20.2%	16.2%	4.0%	1.2%	3.81	4.09	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	12	1	28	131	39	17	1	8%	2.4	29.8%	13.0%	16.8%	0.8%	3.81	2.61	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	42	182	52	25	7	0%	2.1	22.3%	18.2%	4.1%	6.1%	3.43	6.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	42	182	52	25	7	0%	2.1	22.3%	18.2%	4.1%	6.1%	3.43	6.85	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	42	182	52	25	7	0%	2.1	28.6%	13.7%	14.8%	3.8%	3.43	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	TB	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.8%	15.0%	7.9%	3.1%	5.16	5.16	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	36	0	38	160	37	23	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	14.4%	8.7%	3.1%	5.06	5.05	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	15	0	16	68	16	10	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.4%	8.7%	3.1%	5.06	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	16	10	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.4%	8.7%	3.1%	5.06	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	124	25	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.4%	8.7%	3.1%	5.06	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		44	11	115	509	100	82	18	25%	2.6	19.6%	16.1%	3.5%	3.5%	3.59	5.40	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	19	200	883	173	142	31	25%	2.6	19.6%	16.1%	3.5%	3.5%	3.59	5.40	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	22.8%	15.0%	3.1%	—	5.05	23.1%	8.7%	38	-0.11	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	80
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	79
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	78
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	78
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	77
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	76
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.88	23.4%	11.5%	93	-1.19	2.81	153	75
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.69	23.2%	9.9%	100	-2.06	3.37	261	74
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	74
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	74
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	73
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	73
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	73
Kyle Bischoff R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SU	5.26	23.6%	11.8%	4.8%	.240	3.86	21.7%	8.5%	139	-1.40	3.21	161	73
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	73
Layne Henderson R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	22.9%	14.8%	2.6%	.289	4.31	24.1%	10.3%	126	-0.15	3.91	233	73
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	73
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	73
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	73
Marcos Tineo R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	25	SW	4.57	22.2%	14.4%	2.8%	.320	7.13	7.8%	-24.1%	10	+2.56	3.52	273	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.0%	14.6%	1.20	5.09
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84