Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 26 | 22 | 103 | 472 | 98 | 73 | 8 | 85% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 17.0% | -0.2% | 2.3% | 5.77 | 5.09 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 26 | 22 | 103 | 472 | 98 | 73 | 8 | 85% | 4.0 | 20.8% | 15.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 5.77 | 4.33 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 2 | 81 | 337 | 93 | 49 | 4 | 4% | 1.6 | 24.2% | 15.3% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 2.78 | 3.95 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 2 | 81 | 337 | 93 | 49 | 4 | 4% | 1.6 | 27.6% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.2% | 2.78 | 3.26 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 63 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 3.78 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 63 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 18.8% | 11.6% | 1.9% | 3.78 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 246 | 94 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.1% | 10.8% | 27.4% | 0.4% | 2.02 | 1.48 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 246 | 94 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.2% | 11.8% | 26.4% | 0.4% | 2.02 | 1.69 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 70 | 3 | 69 | 299 | 100 | 38 | 7 | 4% | 1.0 | 33.4% | 12.7% | 20.7% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 3.14 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 70 | 3 | 69 | 299 | 100 | 38 | 7 | 4% | 1.0 | 33.4% | 12.7% | 20.7% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 3.17 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 3.10 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 3.10 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 65 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.3% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 3.18 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 65 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 3.18 | 3.33 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 59 | 240 | 68 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 11.2% | 17.6% | 2.1% | 2.75 | 3.23 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 59 | 240 | 68 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 10.8% | 17.5% | 2.5% | 2.75 | 3.44 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 64 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 89 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 10.8% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 4.32 | 3.16 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 64 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 89 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 10.8% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 4.32 | 3.19 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Athletics | 10 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.4% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.00 | 6.59 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Athletics | 10 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.4% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.00 | 7.32 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | ROK | ACL Padres | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 40% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 82 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.6% | 10.5% | 20.1% | 2.8% | 3.68 | 3.73 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30.6% | 10.5% | 20.1% | 2.8% | 3.68 | 3.73 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | SD | — | — | 68 | 286 | 88 | 29 | 8 | — | — | 30.7% | 10.2% | 20.5% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 3.49 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 73 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 11.0% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 3.88 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SD | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 64 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 11.5% | 17.4% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 3.7% | 4.45 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 73 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 11.0% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 3.88 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SD | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 65 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 11.5% | 17.4% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 55 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 3.7% | 4.45 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 511 | 3 | 528 | 2231 | 674 | 273 | 54 | 1% | 1.0 | 30.2% | 12.3% | 18.0% | 2.4% | 3.58 | 3.43 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 256 | 104 | 20 | 1% | 1.0 | 30.2% | 12.3% | 18.0% | 2.4% | 3.58 | 3.43 | +4.6 | ||
| Career | — | 447 | 29 | 560 | 2404 | 657 | 328 | 50 | 6% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 3.67 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 10 | 200 | 858 | 235 | 117 | 18 | 6% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 3.67 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Leclerc (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.73 | 30.6% | 10.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.31 | 28.9% | 17.5% | 158 | +0.58 | — | — | — |
| C.C. Lee R 2025 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 74 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.07 | 34.8% | 13.5% | 2.2% | .341 | 3.31 | 25.2% | 18.0% | 129 | +0.24 | 2.33 | 445 | 72 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 72 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .235 | 4.87 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.74 | 2.00 | 320 | 71 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 71 |
| Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.24 | 40.6% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .286 | 2.81 | 34.6% | 24.9% | 189 | -0.43 | 0.89 | 599 | 69 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.94 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .324 | 3.29 | 23.4% | 17.1% | 134 | +0.35 | 2.27 | 426 | 69 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.03 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.32 | 2.48 | 277 | 69 |
| Chaz Roe R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.07 | 28.4% | 12.7% | 1.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.69 | 257 | 69 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 69 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 68 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 67 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 67 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .298 | 3.52 | 27.3% | 20.0% | 58 | -0.08 | 3.52 | 316 | 67 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 67 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 67 |
| Jay Jackson R 2025 · 2.91 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.91 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .272 | 3.61 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.70 | 2.41 | 261 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 55 | 29.4% | 11.2% | 1.22 | 4.01 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |