Juan Valera — OGILVIE

Juan Valera P Greenville Drive

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%21.6%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5550

CTRL5050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$10M	+1.6	$8M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$13M	+1.5	$7M	+$0.7M
Totals		$31M		$41M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	15	1	27	134	31	20	0	7%	1.8	15.7%	18.7%	-2.9%	0.0%	5.93	4.13	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	15	1	27	134	31	20	0	7%	1.8	15.7%	18.7%	-2.9%	0.0%	5.93	4.13	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	15	1	27	134	31	20	0	7%	1.8	23.1%	14.9%	8.2%	0.0%	5.93	3.03	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	63	244	68	28	1	89%	3.5	19.6%	13.9%	5.7%	0.6%	1.99	3.52	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	63	244	68	28	1	89%	3.5	19.6%	13.9%	5.7%	0.6%	1.99	3.52	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	63	244	68	28	1	89%	3.5	27.9%	11.5%	16.4%	0.4%	1.99	2.48	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	10	10	38	167	46	10	6	100%	3.8	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	4.0%	5.45	4.39	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	10	10	38	167	46	10	6	100%	3.8	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	4.0%	5.45	4.39	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	10	10	38	167	46	10	6	100%	3.8	27.5%	6.0%	21.6%	3.6%	5.45	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	3	9	36	17	4	1	100%	3.1	—	—	—	—	1.93	—	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	3	9	36	17	4	1	100%	3.1	—	—	—	—	1.93	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	BOS	3	3	9	36	17	4	1	100%	3.1	47.2%	11.1%	36.1%	2.8%	1.93	2.04	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	BOS	1	1	6	24	5	2	1	100%	5.7	21.6%	10.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	15	60	22	6	2	—	—	36.9%	10.8%	26.2%	2.9%	2.95	1.76	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	106	446	92	46	13	100%	4.8	20.7%	10.3%	10.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.65	+0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	147	620	135	58	18	100%	5.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.9%	4.49	4.43	+0.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	33	33	175	739	166	65	21	100%	5.3	22.5%	8.8%	13.6%	2.9%	4.36	4.27	+1.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	32	32	179	757	174	65	21	100%	5.6	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.8%	4.25	4.18	+1.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	31	31	180	760	178	64	21	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.4%	15.0%	2.8%	4.17	4.12	+1.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	30	30	180	760	179	64	21	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	2.8%	4.13	4.10	+1.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	30	30	177	749	176	63	21	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.4%	15.1%	2.9%	4.13	4.13	+1.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	172	726	170	62	22	100%	5.9	23.4%	8.6%	14.9%	3.0%	4.18	4.22	+1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	27	27	164	694	161	61	22	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	3.1%	4.28	4.35	+1.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	26	26	154	652	149	59	22	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.43	4.53	+0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	BOS	24	24	144	608	136	58	22	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.5%	13.0%	3.5%	4.61	4.73	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	133	562	124	55	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.8%	4.82	4.95	-0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	122	516	111	53	21	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	4.1%	5.05	5.20	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	52	220	45	23	6	100%	4.7	20.7%	10.3%	10.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.61	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	107	452	98	42	13	100%	5.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.8%	4.45	4.39	+0.6
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	28	28	148	625	140	55	17	100%	5.3	22.5%	8.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.23	+1.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	29	29	160	676	155	58	19	100%	5.5	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.8%	4.21	4.14	+1.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	28	28	165	697	163	59	19	100%	5.9	23.4%	8.4%	15.0%	2.7%	4.13	4.08	+1.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	28	28	168	709	167	59	19	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	2.7%	4.09	4.06	+1.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	28	28	168	709	167	60	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.1%	2.8%	4.09	4.09	+1.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	163	688	161	59	20	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.6%	14.9%	2.9%	4.14	4.18	+1.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	26	26	156	659	153	58	20	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.24	4.31	+1.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	24	24	147	621	142	57	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.1%	13.7%	3.2%	4.38	4.48	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	BOS	23	23	137	578	130	55	20	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.5%	13.0%	3.5%	4.56	4.68	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	127	536	118	53	20	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.7%	4.77	4.90	-0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	116	490	105	50	19	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	4.0%	4.99	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	313	1814	7660	1746	687	233	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.34	3.98	+19.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	192	76	26	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.34	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		46	30	138	581	121	75	9	65%	3.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	1.6%	3.72	3.82	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	43	200	842	176	108	13	65%	3.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	1.6%	3.72	3.82	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Valera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.6%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.42	21.8%	12.4%	428	-0.19	—	—	—
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	83
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	82
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	82
Sean Sullivan R 2022 · 5.28 FIP	21	SP-	5.28	19.9%	9.6%	4.8%	.298	4.45	16.8%	8.2%	243	-0.83	4.36	318	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	81
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	81
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	80
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	80
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	80
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	80
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	80
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	80
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	79
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.5	150	22.7%	9.0%	1.20	4.40
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12