Juan Valera

P Greenville Drive

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#64ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	18	16	63	1.99	2.48	27.9%	11.5%	—	K 19.6% · BB 13.9% · FIP 3.52
2025	19	A+BOS	10	10	38	5.45	3.52	27.5%	6.0%	—	K 21.2% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.39
2026	20	A+BOS	3	3	9	1.93	2.14	47.2%	11.1%	—	K 47.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 2.04
2027PROJ	21	MLBBOS	—	—	0	4.35	4.35	23.1%	9.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBOS	11	11	57	4.20	4.13	23.9%	8.5%	0.8
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBOS	19	19	99	4.09	4.01	24.5%	8.1%	1.6

Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$5M2032Ext$8M2033Ext$11M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -2.3 / P90 5.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsBrandon Bailey (age 22) · Javi Rivera (age 22) · Ian Bedell (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%23.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	15	1	27	134	31	20	0	7%	1.8	15.7%	18.7%	-2.9%	0.0%	5.93	4.13	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	15	1	27	134	31	20	0	7%	1.8	23.1%	14.9%	8.2%	0.0%	5.93	3.03	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	63	244	68	28	1	89%	3.5	19.6%	13.9%	5.7%	0.6%	1.99	3.52	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	63	244	68	28	1	89%	3.5	19.6%	13.9%	5.7%	0.6%	1.99	3.52	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	63	244	68	28	1	89%	3.5	27.9%	11.5%	16.4%	0.4%	1.99	2.48	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	10	10	38	167	46	10	6	100%	3.8	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	4.0%	5.45	4.39	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	10	10	38	167	46	10	6	100%	3.8	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	4.0%	5.45	4.39	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	10	10	38	167	46	10	6	100%	3.8	27.5%	6.0%	21.6%	3.6%	5.45	3.52	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	3	9	36	17	4	1	100%	3.1	47.2%	11.1%	36.1%	2.8%	1.93	2.04	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	3	3	9	36	17	4	1	100%	3.1	47.2%	11.1%	36.1%	2.8%	1.93	2.04	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	3	3	9	36	17	4	1	100%	3.1	47.2%	11.1%	36.1%	2.8%	1.93	2.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.1%	9.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	115	485	116	41	14	100%	5.0	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	3.0%	4.24	4.17	+1.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	25	25	135	570	139	46	17	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.1%	16.3%	2.9%	4.13	4.05	+2.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	131	553	138	44	16	100%	5.7	24.9%	7.9%	17.0%	2.9%	4.04	3.97	+2.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	129	546	138	42	16	100%	5.9	25.2%	7.8%	17.4%	2.9%	3.97	3.92	+2.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	130	548	139	42	16	100%	5.9	25.4%	7.7%	17.7%	2.9%	3.93	3.90	+2.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	127	537	136	42	16	100%	6.1	25.4%	7.8%	17.6%	2.9%	3.93	3.94	+2.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	122	513	130	41	16	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.0%	17.3%	3.0%	3.98	4.02	+2.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	114	480	120	39	15	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.2%	16.9%	3.2%	4.08	4.15	+1.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	103	436	108	37	15	100%	6.1	24.7%	8.5%	16.2%	3.4%	4.23	4.33	+1.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	92	390	95	34	14	100%	6.2	24.3%	8.8%	15.5%	3.6%	4.41	4.53	+0.9
2038	32	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	81	344	82	32	13	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.2%	14.6%	3.9%	4.62	4.76	+0.6
2039	33	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	71	300	70	29	12	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.7%	13.7%	4.1%	4.85	5.01	+0.3
2040	34	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	62	261	59	27	12	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	4.4%	5.11	5.28	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	57	241	57	20	7	100%	5.2	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	2.9%	4.20	4.13	+0.8
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	99	418	102	34	12	100%	5.2	24.5%	8.1%	16.3%	2.9%	4.09	4.01	+1.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	109	460	115	36	13	100%	5.7	24.9%	7.9%	17.0%	2.8%	4.00	3.93	+1.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	114	481	121	37	14	100%	6.0	25.2%	7.8%	17.4%	2.8%	3.93	3.88	+2.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	118	498	127	38	14	100%	5.9	25.4%	7.7%	17.7%	2.8%	3.89	3.86	+2.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	118	498	127	39	14	100%	5.9	25.4%	7.8%	17.6%	2.9%	3.89	3.90	+2.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	114	481	122	38	14	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.0%	17.3%	3.0%	3.94	3.98	+1.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	18	18	108	456	114	37	14	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.2%	16.9%	3.1%	4.04	4.11	+1.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	98	414	102	35	14	100%	6.1	24.7%	8.5%	16.2%	3.3%	4.18	4.28	+1.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	88	372	90	33	13	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.8%	15.5%	3.5%	4.36	4.48	+0.9
2038	32	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	77	325	78	30	12	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.2%	14.6%	3.8%	4.57	4.71	+0.6
2039	33	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	67	28	12	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.7%	13.7%	4.0%	4.79	4.95	+0.3
2040	34	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	56	236	54	24	10	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	4.3%	5.05	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		209	209	1223	5163	1274	430	163	100%	5.9	24.7%	8.3%	16.3%	3.2%	4.15	3.80	+23.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	70	27	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.3%	16.3%	3.2%	4.15	3.80	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		46	30	138	581	121	75	9	65%	3.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	1.6%	3.72	3.82	+19.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	43	200	842	176	108	13	65%	3.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	1.6%	3.72	3.82	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 9 IPFIP 2.04 → 3.55 (+1.51)K% 47.2% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.22%	—	×0.770	36.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 38 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.39 (+0.88)K% 27.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.54%	—	×0.770	21.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.99%	—	×1.150	6.89%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷1.117	×1.250	4.02%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 40 IPFIP 2.06 → 3.05 (+0.99)K% 26.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.97%	—	×0.680	17.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.952	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.06 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 23 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.33 (+1.28)K% 31.1% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.11%	—	×0.740	23.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.56%	—	×1.180	18.36%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷0.933	×1.300	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Red Sox Blue · 27 IPFIP 3.04 → 4.13 (+1.10)K% 23.1% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.13%	—	×0.680	15.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.93%	—	×1.250	18.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.924	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Valera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.06	24.4%	16.3%	381	-0.29	—	—	—
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	86
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	86
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	84
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.84	16.4%	2.8%	184	+1.25	3.59	281	82
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	82
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	81
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	80
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	80
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.10	24.4%	11.8%	56	+0.75	2.93	103	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	79
Blake Money R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP-	3.46	20.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.281	4.00	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.54	3.46	224	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	78
Sean Sullivan R 2022 · 5.28 FIP	21	SP-	5.28	19.9%	9.6%	4.8%	.298	4.44	16.9%	8.3%	243	-0.84	4.36	318	78
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	78
Jerming Rosario R 2023 · 4.18 FIP	21	SP-	4.18	22.1%	11.8%	2.6%	.351	4.36	21.0%	6.2%	248	+0.18	3.05	507	78
Trey Gibson R 2024 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	22.7%	11.7%	1.0%	.310	3.93	22.4%	12.9%	252	+0.71	3.22	344	77
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	77
Vince Velasquez R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	23	SW	3.26	26.2%	9.8%	2.1%	.290	3.87	25.5%	16.5%	350	+0.61	3.26	964	77
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	108	24.6%	8.4%	1.24	4.21
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Ian Kennedy ('23)	9.5	146	21.9%	8.0%	1.32	4.16
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Don Robinson ('78-'92, 16 WAR*)	9.8	131	20.5%*	7.8%*	1.26*	4.41*
Woodie Fryman ('66-'83, 21 WAR*)	12.1	142	21.1%*	8.8%*	1.09*	4.43*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*