Juan Valera
P
Greenville Drive
+0.2
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2031
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.4%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Blue | 15 | 1 | 27 | 134 | 31 | 20 | 0 | 15.7% | 18.7% | 0.0% | 5.93 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | 18 | 16 | 63 | 244 | 68 | 28 | 1 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 0.6% | 1.99 | 3.52 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 10 | 10 | 38 | 167 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 21.2% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 5.45 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 3 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 47 | 196 | 53 | 19 | 6 | 27.1% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.53 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 24.0% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 24.7% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 47 | 15 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 3.84 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.85 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 47 | 14 | 5 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 30 | 138 | 581 | 121 | 75 | 9 | 20.9% | 12.8% | 1.6% | 3.72 | 3.83 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 43 | 200 | 842 | 175 | 109 | 13 | 20.9% | 12.8% | 1.6% | 3.72 | 3.83 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Valera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.5% | 125 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Cody Palmquist R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 90 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 90 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 90 |
| Kai Wynyard R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.12 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 138 | -0.11 | 3.32 | 206 | 90 |
| Chris Gau R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 89 |
| Enmanuel Marcano R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.32 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 138 | 89 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 89 |
| Osiris German R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.14 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.12 | 3.11 | 187 | 88 |
| Victor Castaneda R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.94 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .348 | 4.99 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 230 | +1.05 | 2.90 | 377 | 88 |
| Kendeglys Virguez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.49 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 101 | 88 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 88 |
| Addison Russ R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 88 |
| Jake Elliott R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.79 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.03 | 2.87 | 354 | 87 |
| Simon Mathews R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.34 | 4.09 | 215 | 87 |
| Scott Williams R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 87 |
| Jeff Bain R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .339 | 4.24 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 274 | +0.30 | 3.35 | 475 | 87 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.30 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.98 | 3.32 | 124 | 87 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.83 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.48 | 2.50 | 103 | 87 |
| Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.76 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.7% | .304 | 5.89 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 19 | +1.13 | 4.76 | 134 | 86 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 5.01 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +1.14 | 3.13 | 286 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $8M | $16M | +$8M | ||