Juan Valera
P
Greenville Drive
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123113vR 104
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
K%19.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Blue | 15 | 1 | 27 | 134 | 31 | 20 | 0 | 7% | 1.8 | 15.7% | 18.7% | -2.9% | 0.0% | 5.93 | 4.13 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Blue | 15 | 1 | 27 | 134 | 31 | 20 | 0 | 7% | 1.8 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 5.93 | 3.03 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 16 | 63 | 244 | 68 | 28 | 1 | 89% | 3.5 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 5.7% | 0.6% | 1.99 | 3.55 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 16 | 63 | 244 | 68 | 28 | 1 | 89% | 3.5 | 27.9% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 0.4% | 1.99 | 2.48 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 10 | 10 | 38 | 167 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 21.2% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 10 | 10 | 38 | 167 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 27.5% | 6.0% | 21.6% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 3.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 3 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | — | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.58 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 74 | 310 | 71 | 29 | 9 | — | — | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 20 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 106 | 446 | 85 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 29 | 147 | 620 | 125 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 33 | 33 | 175 | 739 | 155 | 61 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.30 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 32 | 32 | 179 | 757 | 164 | 61 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.21 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 167 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 7.9% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +2.6 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 169 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +2.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 166 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +2.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 160 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +2.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 151 | 58 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +1.9 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 140 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.56 | +1.5 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 128 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.77 | +1.1 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 116 | 53 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 104 | 51 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 5.09 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 52 | 220 | 42 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 107 | 452 | 91 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 28 | 148 | 625 | 131 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.31 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 146 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.22 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 153 | 55 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 7.9% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 157 | 56 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +2.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 157 | 56 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +2.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 152 | 56 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +2.2 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 144 | 55 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.40 | +1.8 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 133 | 54 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 122 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 111 | 50 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 98 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 4.1% | 5.10 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 313 | 1814 | 7661 | 1638 | 648 | 238 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.07 | +28.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 71 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 46 | 30 | 138 | 581 | 121 | 75 | 9 | 65% | 3.0 | 20.9% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 3.72 | 3.77 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 43 | 200 | 842 | 176 | 108 | 12 | 65% | 3.0 | 20.9% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 3.72 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Valera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 428 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Sean Sullivan R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 86 |
| Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 85 |
| Jared Karros R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 84 |
| Porter Hodge R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 84 |
| Shane Davis R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.14 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .313 | 4.08 | 20.9% | 6.7% | 55 | -1.06 | 4.08 | 129 | 84 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 83 |
| TJ Nichols R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 82 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.21 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .239 | 6.50 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.29 | 4.21 | 129 | 81 |
| Chris Campos R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 81 |
| Javi Rivera R 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.71 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.72 | 229 | 81 |
| Ian Bedell R 2029 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 81 |
| Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.97 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .302 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.5% | 153 | -0.50 | 2.56 | 253 | 80 |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 80 |
| Cale Lansville R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.95 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .325 | 5.03 | 12.8% | 0.1% | 38 | +1.08 | 3.95 | 113 | 80 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 80 |
| Ryan Dromboski R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.48 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 1.4% | .288 | 4.10 | 17.3% | 4.9% | 53 | +0.62 | 3.48 | 133 | 80 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 80 |
| Nick Fraze R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 80 |
| Lucas Elissalt R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 1.9% | .253 | 4.98 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 60 | +1.13 | 3.85 | 149 | 80 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 150 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 1.19 | 4.43 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |