Sean Sullivan — OGILVIE

Sean Sullivan P Altoona Curve

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%17.4%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	15	75	325	84	27	16	75%	3.8	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	4.8%	4.68	5.28	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	15	75	325	84	27	16	75%	3.8	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	4.9%	4.68	4.71	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	24	21	114	476	97	38	13	88%	4.7	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	3.0%	3.88	4.44	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	24	21	114	476	97	38	13	88%	4.7	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	3.0%	3.88	4.44	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	24	21	114	476	97	38	13	88%	4.7	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	2.8%	3.84	4.36	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	2.8%	3.84	4.36	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	18.7%	7.2%	11.5%	2.0%	3.84	3.51	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	19.4%	8.8%	10.6%	3.7%	3.86	4.59	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	19.4%	8.8%	10.6%	3.7%	3.86	4.59	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	3.6%	3.86	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	11	0	14	59	12	4	0	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	2.57	—	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	11	0	14	59	12	4	0	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	2.57	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	PIT	4	0	5	25	5	3	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	0.0%	3.38	2.93	—
2026	25	AA RAW	PIT	7	0	9	34	7	1	0	0%	1.2	20.6%	2.9%	17.6%	0.0%	2.08	1.73	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.4%	8.6%	8.9%	3.2%	4.83	4.83	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	20	84	16	6	1	—	—	19.5%	7.3%	12.2%	0.9%	3.24	1.42	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PIT	67	0	70	296	54	25	9	0%	1.0	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	3.2%	4.76	4.75	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	66	0	69	291	55	25	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	3.2%	4.74	4.75	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	64	0	67	282	53	25	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	8.9%	10.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.82	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	61	0	64	270	51	25	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.1%	9.6%	3.4%	4.86	4.93	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	PIT	30	0	31	131	24	11	4	0%	1.0	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.63	4.62	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	42	0	44	186	35	16	5	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	3.0%	4.61	4.62	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	49	0	51	215	41	19	7	0%	1.0	18.8%	8.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.64	4.68	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	50	0	52	220	41	20	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.72	4.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	140	66	23	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.31	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	74	26	0%	1.1	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		100	56	343	1446	256	126	49	56%	3.4	17.7%	8.7%	9.0%	3.4%	3.99	4.55	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	33	200	843	149	73	28	56%	3.4	17.7%	8.7%	9.0%	3.4%	3.99	4.55	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Sullivan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	17.4%	8.6%	3.2%	—	4.77	18.6%	9.9%	206	-0.06	—	—	—
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	91
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	91
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	87
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	85
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	84
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	84
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	84
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	82
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	81
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	81
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	81
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	81
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	81
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	80
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	18.4%	8.8%	1.25	4.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79