Sean Sullivan

P Altoona Curve

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AAPIT	15	13	73	3.84	3.51	18.7%	7.2%	—	K 15.1% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.36
2025	24	MIX4 levels	30	7	68	3.86	4.37	22.8%	10.0%	—	K 19.9% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.54
2026	25	MIX2 levels	12	0	15	2.40	2.03	22.6%	6.5%	—	K 22.6% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.01
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	1	1	1	4.72	4.72	18.6%	8.7%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBPIT	4	4	23	4.70	4.72	19.1%	8.8%	0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBPIT	5	5	33	4.73	4.77	19.3%	9.0%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAaron Northcraft (age 26) · Dakota Hawkins (age 24) · Josh Roeder (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%18.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	15	75	325	84	27	16	75%	3.8	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	4.8%	4.68	5.28	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	15	75	325	84	27	16	75%	3.8	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	4.9%	4.68	4.71	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	24	21	114	476	97	38	13	88%	4.7	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	3.0%	3.88	4.44	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	24	21	114	476	97	38	13	88%	4.7	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	2.8%	3.84	4.36	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	2.8%	3.84	4.36	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	15	13	73	305	57	22	6	87%	4.8	18.7%	7.2%	11.5%	2.0%	3.84	3.51	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.7%	3.86	4.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.7%	3.86	4.54	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	7	68	281	64	28	10	23%	2.3	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	3.6%	3.86	4.37	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	62	14	4	0	0%	1.2	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	0.0%	2.40	2.01	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	62	14	4	0	0%	1.2	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	0.0%	2.40	2.01	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	15	62	14	4	0	0%	1.2	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	0.0%	2.40	2.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.6%	8.7%	10.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.72	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	61	258	49	23	8	100%	6.1	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	3.2%	4.70	4.72	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	55	234	45	21	8	100%	6.2	19.3%	9.0%	10.3%	3.2%	4.73	4.77	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	51	214	41	20	7	100%	6.3	19.3%	9.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.81	4.88	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	4	4	23	97	19	9	3	100%	5.8	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	3.2%	4.70	4.72	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	5	5	33	139	27	13	5	100%	6.6	19.3%	9.0%	10.3%	3.2%	4.73	4.77	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	36	152	29	14	5	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.81	4.88	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	14	92	387	74	35	13	100%	6.6	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	3.3%	4.75	4.42	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	161	76	28	100%	6.3	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	3.3%	4.75	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		101	56	344	1449	259	126	49	55%	3.4	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	3.4%	3.98	4.53	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	33	200	842	151	73	28	55%	3.4	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	3.4%	3.98	4.53	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 10 IPFIP 1.39 → 1.81 (+0.42)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.810	19.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.70%	—	×1.100	2.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.39 → 1.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 5 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.64 (+0.71)K% 20.0% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.740	14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.180	14.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 41 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.81 (+0.52)K% 23.2% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.16%	—	×0.860	19.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.17%	—	×0.900	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷0.915	×1.100	4.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 16 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.70 (+0.82)K% 24.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.56%	—	×0.810	19.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.02%	—	×1.100	7.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.891	×1.200	2.36%

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ABradenton Marauders · 7 IPFIP 6.93 → 9.05 (+2.12)K% 18.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.740	13.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.62%	—	×1.180	18.44%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷0.932	×1.300	8.72%

Result: FIP 6.93 → 9.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 73 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.36 (+0.85)K% 18.7% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.69%	—	×0.810	15.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.100	7.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷0.844	×1.200	2.80%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 114 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.44 (+0.55)K% 20.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.38%	—	×0.810	16.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.100	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷1.106	×1.200	2.96%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 75 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.28 (+0.61)K% 25.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.85%	—	×0.770	19.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.31%	—	×1.150	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	4.92%	÷1.273	×1.250	4.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 155).

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Sullivan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	18.6%	8.7%	3.1%	—	4.79	19.2%	10.2%	167	+0.07	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	87
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	82
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	82
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	82
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	82
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	79
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	79
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	78
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	78
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	78
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	78
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	78
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	77
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	59	19.0%	8.9%	1.24	4.74
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*