Jerming Rosario — OGILVIE

Jerming Rosario P Oklahoma City Comets

+0.1 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2029

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.2%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%7.6%

IP88

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2029

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	13	13	45	176	43	15	0	16.6%	10.7%	0.0%	0.79	3.05	+1.0
2021	19	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	7	40	187	54	17	6	21.1%	10.5%	4.1%	7.36	4.92	+0.0
2022	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	26	14	85	404	112	60	9	20.5%	17.5%	2.3%	6.64	4.84	+0.3
2023	21	A+	Great Lakes Loons	25	15	92	393	114	40	8	22.1%	11.8%	2.7%	4.21	4.21	+1.1
2024	22	AAA	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	27	23	109	477	120	73	6	20.2%	16.4%	1.5%	4.47	4.32	+1.2
2025	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	46	6	79	358	87	51	6	19.7%	15.7%	2.1%	4.67	4.58	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	7	0	8	44	13	10	2	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	LAD	16	16	88	370	79	51	9	21.2%	13.7%	2.5%	4.81	4.81	+0.4
2026 Total	24	MLB	LAD	—	—	96	414	92	61	11	22.1%	14.6%	2.7%	4.97	4.41	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	LAD	18	18	101	426	92	52	11	21.7%	12.1%	2.6%	4.65	4.59	+0.8
2028	26	MLB	LAD	20	20	108	455	100	53	12	21.9%	11.8%	2.6%	4.58	4.54	+0.9
2029	27	MLB	LAD	20	20	111	469	103	54	12	21.9%	11.6%	2.6%	4.55	4.54	+1.0
2030	28	MLB	LAD	20	20	111	470	103	54	13	21.9%	11.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.56	+0.9
2031	29	MLB	LAD	20	20	109	459	100	53	12	21.8%	11.6%	2.7%	4.58	4.60	+0.9
2032	30	MLB	LAD	19	19	106	445	96	52	12	21.6%	11.7%	2.8%	4.63	4.66	+0.8
2033	31	MLB	LAD	19	19	102	430	92	51	12	21.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.69	4.74	+0.6
2034	32	MLB	LAD	18	18	98	413	87	49	12	21.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.77	4.82	+0.5
2035	33	MLB	LAD	17	17	93	394	82	48	12	20.7%	12.2%	3.0%	4.86	4.92	+0.3
2036	34	MLB	LAD	16	16	89	374	76	46	12	20.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.96	5.03	+0.2
2037	35	MLB	LAD	15	15	84	353	70	44	11	20.0%	12.6%	3.2%	5.08	5.15	+0.0
2038	36	MLB	LAD	14	14	78	330	71	40	11	21.6%	12.0%	3.3%	5.04	5.02	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			158	78	459	2039	418	299	44	20.5%	14.7%	2.2%	4.79	4.43	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—			69	34	200	889	182	130	19	20.5%	14.7%	2.2%	4.79	4.43	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jerming Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.2%	13.7%	2.5%	—	4.56	21.8%	10.0%	320	-0.25	—	—	—
Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	92
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	89
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	25	SP-	4.30	18.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.336	5.70	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.40	4.30	144	89
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	.296	5.08	18.4%	6.8%	57	+0.50	4.27	238	87
J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP-	5.33	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.26	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.07	4.07	530	85
Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	85
Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	84
Austin Vernon R 2026 · 5.73 FIP	24	SP-	5.73	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.73	23.3%	9.6%	100	-2.00	3.36	261	84
Phillippe Aumont R 2028 · 4.62 FIP	26	SP-	4.62	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	4.95	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.33	4.62	147	84
M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP-	5.29	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.66	3.52	395	83
Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.57 FIP	23	SP-	5.57	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.55	19.9%	1.4%	41	-1.02	4.55	140	83
Casey Anderson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP-	4.06	17.3%	12.4%	1.6%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	185	83
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	82
Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.19	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.14	3.58	327	82
Reid Johnston R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	204	82
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	24	SP-	5.28	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.42	22.2%	10.9%	274	-0.86	3.98	481	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	81
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP-	5.31	19.4%	12.5%	4.1%	.257	5.24	18.5%	3.9%	104	-0.07	4.38	355	81
R.J. Freure R 2026 · 5.82 FIP	24	SP-	5.82	21.7%	16.2%	4.5%	.298	5.85	20.3%	0.1%	26	+0.03	5.14	196	81
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	24	SP-	4.18	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	3.95	17.0%	8.9%	127	-0.23	3.95	373	81

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1.0M
Totals		$7M		$28M	+$20M