Trey Gibson
P
Norfolk Tides
+1.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.8 · 2028
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%14.4%
IP111
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 25 | 16 | 92 | 389 | 118 | 39 | 3 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.0% | 3.72 | 3.24 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 26 | 25 | 120 | 514 | 166 | 44 | 13 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 3.60 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 4 | 4 | 17 | 80 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 112 | 45 | 13 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 128 | 548 | 129 | 53 | 15 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 126 | 48 | 15 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 554 | 134 | 50 | 15 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.11 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 136 | 50 | 16 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 136 | 51 | 16 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 554 | 132 | 50 | 16 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.20 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 538 | 127 | 49 | 16 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 121 | 48 | 16 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 115 | 47 | 15 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 113 | 476 | 109 | 45 | 15 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 102 | 44 | 15 | 22.5% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 94 | 43 | 15 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 86 | 41 | 14 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 369 | 78 | 39 | 14 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.03 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 45 | 231 | 991 | 239 | 103 | 20 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.51 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 39 | 200 | 857 | 207 | 89 | 17 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.51 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trey Gibson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.12 | 24.1% | 15.1% | 390 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 90 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 88 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 88 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.60 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.28 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.32 | 2.16 | 615 | 88 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 88 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 88 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 87 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 87 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 86 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 85 |
| Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 85 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 85 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.94 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .314 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 204 | +1.24 | 3.60 | 447 | 85 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 84 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 84 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 83 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 83 |
| John Klein R 2025 · 3.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.22 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 260 | 83 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.92 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .277 | 4.93 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 274 | +0.01 | 4.04 | 448 | 83 |
| Blake Money R 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.05 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 224 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.7 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.8 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.7 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $6M | +1.6 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.5 | $14M | +$6M |
| Totals | $20M | $89M | +$70M | ||