Trey Gibson — OGILVIE

Trey Gibson P Norfolk Tides

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

K%22.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p2518.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.4	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$8M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	ROK	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2023	21	ROK	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	25	16	92	389	118	39	3	64%	3.7	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	1.0%	3.72	3.24	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	25	16	92	389	118	39	3	64%	3.7	30.3%	10.0%	20.3%	0.8%	3.72	2.23	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	26	25	120	514	166	44	13	96%	4.6	26.1%	9.4%	16.6%	2.5%	4.26	3.48	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	26	25	120	514	166	44	13	96%	4.6	32.3%	8.6%	23.7%	2.5%	4.26	2.84	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	17	16	71	331	68	44	10	94%	4.2	19.2%	13.6%	5.6%	3.1%	5.32	4.91	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB	BAL	5	5	30	128	29	14	4	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.09	4.09	+0.2
ROS	24	MLB	BAL	5	5	30	127	29	14	4	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.8%	12.0%	2.9%	4.14	4.14	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	101	459	97	58	14	—	—	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	3.0%	4.95	4.66	+0.9
2026 FULL	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	63	268	97	58	14	—	—	36.4%	21.6%	14.7%	5.1%	7.95	5.59	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	BAL	19	19	114	479	114	51	15	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.6%	13.2%	3.1%	4.58	4.52	+1.2
2028	26	MLB	BAL	21	21	126	530	128	55	16	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.3%	13.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.45	+1.4
2029	27	MLB	BAL	21	21	124	522	125	54	16	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.3%	13.8%	3.1%	4.48	4.48	+1.3
2030	28	MLB	BAL	20	20	120	506	121	53	16	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	3.2%	4.52	4.55	+1.2
2031	29	MLB	BAL	19	19	114	483	114	51	16	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.4%	4.62	4.69	+1.0
2032	30	MLB	BAL	18	18	108	454	106	50	16	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	3.6%	4.77	4.86	+0.7
2033	31	MLB	BAL	17	17	100	423	97	48	16	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.8%	4.95	5.07	+0.4
2034	32	MLB	BAL	15	15	93	392	88	46	16	100%	6.2	22.4%	11.7%	10.8%	4.1%	5.16	5.29	-0.0
2027	25	MLB	BAL	18	18	108	456	109	48	15	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.6%	13.2%	3.2%	4.64	4.58	+1.0
2028	26	MLB	BAL	20	20	119	502	121	52	16	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.3%	13.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.51	+1.2
2029	27	MLB	BAL	20	20	117	494	119	51	16	100%	5.8	24.0%	10.3%	13.8%	3.3%	4.54	4.54	+1.2
2030	28	MLB	BAL	19	19	114	481	115	50	16	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	3.4%	4.59	4.62	+1.0
2031	29	MLB	BAL	18	18	109	460	109	49	16	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.5%	4.69	4.76	+0.8
2032	30	MLB	BAL	17	17	102	431	100	47	16	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.93	+0.6
2033	31	MLB	BAL	16	16	95	401	92	45	16	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	4.0%	5.03	5.15	+0.2
2034	32	MLB	BAL	15	15	88	372	83	43	16	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.7%	10.8%	4.2%	5.24	5.37	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			157	156	916	3890	908	425	138	99%	5.8	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	3.5%	4.82	4.45	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	849	198	93	30	99%	5.8	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	3.5%	4.82	4.45	+2.2
Career	—			69	57	285	1242	288	140	27	83%	4.1	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.2%	4.32	3.78	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—			48	40	200	871	202	98	19	83%	4.1	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.2%	4.32	3.78	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Gibson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.06	25.5%	9.7%	2.7%	—	4.48	24.0%	13.6%	363	+0.42	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	85
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	83
Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	22.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	-0.02	3.51	140	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	82
Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	24	SP	3.57	23.3%	11.5%	1.8%	.269	3.64	25.1%	17.3%	216	+0.07	2.28	473	81
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	19.2%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	5.47	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.95	4.52	239	81
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	81
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	23.0%	8.8%	3.5%	.359	4.87	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.67	4.20	118	80
Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP	5.06	23.6%	10.4%	4.8%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	258	80
Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	21.1%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	4.28	18.7%	10.9%	389	-0.37	3.21	630	80
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP	3.66	21.5%	12.3%	1.5%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	158	79
Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP	3.65	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	6.01	18.9%	5.5%	56	+2.36	3.65	287	79
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	20.2%	8.6%	3.9%	.261	4.28	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.36	3.41	368	78
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	24	SP	3.59	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.20	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.39	2.15	702	78
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	24	SP-	3.29	23.4%	11.9%	1.2%	.316	4.60	23.0%	9.5%	109	+1.31	3.29	142	78
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	25	SP	4.06	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.86	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.06	120	78
Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP-	4.07	22.2%	9.9%	2.9%	.295	4.29	22.9%	11.6%	57	+0.22	4.07	408	77
Jaron DeBerry R 2025 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP	5.03	21.2%	13.0%	3.8%	.249	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	175	77
Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	107	23.7%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zack Godley ('20)	6	94	22.1%	9.5%	1.13	4.86
Jhoulys Chacín ('22)	7	108	19.4%	9.3%	1.13	4.51
Héctor Santiago ('21)	6	99	20.3%	10.5%	1.56	4.48
Matt Moore ('24)	8	98	20.5%	9.3%	1.33	4.82