Trey Gibson — OGILVIE

Trey Gibson P Norfolk Tides

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA3.99

FIP3.99

K%22.1%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p2518.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	92	389	118	39	3	64%	3.7	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	1.0%	3.72	3.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	92	389	118	39	3	64%	3.7	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	1.0%	3.72	3.22	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	16	92	389	118	39	3	64%	3.7	30.3%	10.0%	20.3%	0.8%	3.72	2.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	120	514	166	44	13	96%	4.6	25.8%	9.1%	16.7%	2.7%	4.26	3.56	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	120	514	166	44	13	96%	4.6	25.8%	9.1%	16.7%	2.7%	4.26	3.56	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	120	514	166	44	13	96%	4.6	32.3%	8.6%	23.7%	2.5%	4.26	2.84	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	7	33	161	30	25	7	88%	4.1	18.6%	15.5%	3.1%	4.3%	7.36	6.31	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	27	26	120	538	107	57	16	96%	4.4	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.26	4.59	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	27	26	120	538	107	57	16	96%	4.4	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.26	4.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	BAL	19	19	87	377	77	32	9	100%	4.6	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	2.4%	4.47	3.76	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	BAL	8	7	33	161	30	25	7	88%	4.1	18.6%	15.5%	3.1%	4.3%	7.36	5.88	-0.4
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	BAL	8	7	33	161	30	25	7	88%	4.1	18.6%	15.5%	3.1%	4.3%	7.36	5.88	-0.4
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	8	34	7	3	1	100%	7.9	22.1%	9.7%	12.4%	2.8%	3.99	3.99	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	BAL	1	1	8	34	7	3	1	100%	8.0	22.1%	9.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.06	4.06	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	128	572	114	60	17	—	—	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.0%	5.19	4.55	+0.5
FULL	24	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	41	173	114	60	17	—	—	66.2%	34.9%	31.3%	9.8%	16.17	7.32	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	137	577	137	60	18	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	3.1%	4.57	4.51	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	149	628	152	64	20	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.2%	14.0%	3.1%	4.48	4.43	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	150	635	153	65	20	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.47	4.46	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	150	635	152	65	21	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.7%	3.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	144	607	144	64	21	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	3.4%	4.61	4.67	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	135	570	133	62	21	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.6%	4.75	4.85	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	126	532	122	59	20	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.8%	4.93	5.05	-0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	117	492	111	57	20	100%	6.1	22.5%	11.6%	11.0%	4.1%	5.14	5.28	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	130	549	131	58	18	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	3.3%	4.65	4.59	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	141	595	144	61	19	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.2%	14.0%	3.2%	4.56	4.51	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	143	604	146	61	20	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	3.3%	4.55	4.54	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	143	604	145	62	20	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.7%	3.4%	4.59	4.62	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	137	578	137	61	21	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	3.6%	4.69	4.75	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	21	21	128	540	126	58	20	100%	6.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.8%	4.84	4.94	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	120	507	116	56	20	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	4.0%	5.02	5.14	-0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	111	469	105	54	20	100%	6.2	22.5%	11.6%	11.0%	4.3%	5.24	5.38	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	185	1093	4638	1087	500	167	99%	5.9	23.4%	10.8%	12.7%	3.6%	4.82	4.46	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	848	199	91	31	99%	5.9	23.4%	10.8%	12.7%	3.6%	4.82	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		79	67	334	1449	317	147	34	85%	4.2	21.9%	10.1%	11.7%	2.4%	4.45	3.84	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	40	200	868	190	88	21	85%	4.2	21.9%	10.1%	11.7%	2.4%	4.45	3.84	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Gibson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	25.3%	9.6%	2.8%	—	4.47	24.1%	13.8%	436	+0.40	—	—	—
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	87
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	87
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	83
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	83
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	82
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	82
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	82
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	81
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	81
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	81
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	81
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	81
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	81
Ryan Bergert R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	23.0%	12.1%	1.4%	.286	4.13	19.2%	10.0%	219	+0.69	3.44	428	80
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	133	23.8%	10.5%	1.30	4.62
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68