Trey Gibson

P Norfolk Tides

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	16	92	3.72	2.23	30.3%	10.0%	—	K 22.7% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.22
2025	23	MIX3 levels	26	25	120	4.26	2.84	32.3%	8.6%	—	K 25.9% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.54
2026	24	MIX2 levels	29	28	131	4.87	4.18	21.2%	10.3%	1.9	K 19.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.29
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	7	7	42	4.66	4.60	21.8%	10.1%	0.4
2028PROJ84% MLB	26	MLBBAL	11	11	64	4.63	4.57	22.6%	9.8%	0.7
2029PROJ88% MLB	27	MLBBAL	11	11	67	4.60	4.59	22.5%	9.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.157First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo62

K%35

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 73%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Dylan DeLucia (age 23) · Ryan Jennings (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.66

FIP4.60

K%21.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.372

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.157 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	1	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	92	389	118	39	3	64%	3.7	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	1.0%	3.72	3.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	92	389	118	39	3	64%	3.7	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	1.0%	3.72	3.22	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	16	92	389	118	39	3	64%	3.7	30.3%	10.0%	20.3%	0.8%	3.72	2.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	120	514	166	44	13	96%	4.6	25.9%	9.1%	16.9%	2.7%	4.26	3.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	120	514	166	44	13	96%	4.6	25.9%	9.1%	16.9%	2.7%	4.26	3.54	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	120	514	166	44	13	96%	4.6	32.3%	8.6%	23.7%	2.5%	4.26	2.84	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	131	580	123	60	16	97%	4.5	19.1%	9.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.87	4.29	+1.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	131	580	123	60	16	97%	4.5	19.1%	9.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.87	4.29	+1.7
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	131	580	123	60	16	97%	4.5	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.87	4.18	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	8	40	185	37	27	7	89%	4.4	20.0%	14.6%	5.4%	3.8%	6.13	5.57	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	7	7	42	177	39	18	5	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.1%	4.66	4.60	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	76	319	72	31	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.49	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	76	323	73	31	10	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.8%	12.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.51	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	74	311	70	30	10	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.58	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	269	59	27	9	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.3%	4.66	4.74	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	51	217	46	22	8	100%	5.7	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.5%	4.83	4.94	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	39	164	33	17	6	100%	6.5	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.8%	5.04	5.17	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	61	27	9	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.2%	4.63	4.57	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	67	283	64	28	9	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.8%	12.8%	3.2%	4.60	4.59	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	67	283	63	28	9	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	3.3%	4.63	4.66	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	59	249	54	25	9	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.5%	4.74	4.82	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	48	203	43	21	7	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.7%	4.92	5.03	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	36	152	31	16	6	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.9%	5.13	5.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	65	380	1623	353	171	56	98%	5.8	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	3.5%	4.88	4.50	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	854	186	90	29	98%	5.8	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	3.5%	4.88	4.50	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		81	69	346	1491	335	150	34	85%	4.3	22.4%	10.1%	12.4%	2.3%	4.32	3.75	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	40	200	863	194	87	20	85%	4.3	22.4%	10.1%	12.4%	2.3%	4.32	3.75	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 92 IPFIP 3.57 → 3.85 (+0.28)K% 21.8% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.77%	—	×0.860	18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.35%	—	×0.900	7.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 52 IPFIP 1.71 → 2.33 (+0.62)K% 32.5% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.54%	—	×0.810	26.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.61%	—	×1.100	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.48%	÷1.248	×1.200	0.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 1.71 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 39 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.06 (+0.98)K% 40.4% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.36%	—	×0.770	31.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×1.150	9.70%
HR / BF /BF	4.22%	÷1.229	×1.250	4.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 29 IPFIP 4.28 → 4.76 (+0.48)K% 22.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.30%	—	×0.860	19.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.63%	—	×0.900	7.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷0.945	×1.100	4.19%

Result: FIP 4.28 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 56 IPFIP 1.95 → 3.11 (+1.16)K% 34.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.47%	—	×0.740	25.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.21%	—	×1.180	12.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷0.952	×1.300	1.16%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 36 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.39 (+0.73)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.03%	—	×0.770	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.74%	—	×1.150	11.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.026	×1.250	0.79%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Gibson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.53	22.5%	12.7%	226	-0.07	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	81
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	80
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	79
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	78
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	78
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	78
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	77
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	77
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	76
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	76
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	76
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	76
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	76
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	76
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	76
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	75
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	75
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	59	21.8%	10.4%	1.28	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*