J.C. Flowers
P
Altoona Curve
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AA
ERA5.22
FIP5.22
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%6.1%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 21 | 13 | 79 | 330 | 92 | 25 | 7 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 3.78 | 3.57 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 33 | 2 | 69 | 285 | 62 | 23 | 6 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 2.88 | 3.98 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 30 | 3 | 46 | 236 | 45 | 39 | 9 | 16.8% | 17.4% | 3.8% | 9.39 | 5.96 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 41 | 2 | 70 | 320 | 59 | 55 | 5 | 15.3% | 18.5% | 2.0% | 5.04 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 14 | 1 | 27 | 131 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 17.8% | 13.4% | 4.8% | 9.67 | 5.94 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 25 | 17 | 4 | 19.7% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 5.22 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 25 | 17 | 4 | 19.9% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 21 | 290 | 1302 | 232 | 172 | 35 | 17.8% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 4.74 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 14 | 200 | 898 | 160 | 119 | 24 | 17.8% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 4.74 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| J.C. Flowers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.22 | 19.7% | 13.6% | 3.1% | — | 5.17 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 30 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 93 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 90 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 84 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 83 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 83 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 82 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% | .290 | 3.80 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.75 | 2.97 | 230 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 81 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.60 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 140 | 81 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 80 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 80 |
| Wil Browning R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.45 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 162 | 79 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 79 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.11 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 2.8% | .262 | 5.07 | 16.2% | -1.4% | 15 | -0.04 | 3.46 | 183 | 79 |
| Guido Knudson R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 106 | 79 |
| Sean Harney R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 1.4% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 123 | 79 |
| Irving Jimenez R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.48 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 2.6% | .417 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 104 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.