Carlos Rodriguez

P FCL Tigers

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#364ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Tigers 1	12	9	39	4.66	2.61	13.9%	5.4%	—	K 9.4% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.16
2025	19	ROKDSL Tigers 2	11	11	46	3.94	3.45	18.8%	6.2%	—	K 12.8% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.54
2026	20	MIX2 levels	19	12	53	6.24	3.77	23.4%	9.8%	—	K 16.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	21	MLBDET	—	—	0	5.05	5.05	17.1%	10.9%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	22	MLBDET	7	7	36	4.73	4.61	19.6%	10.0%	0.3
2029PROJ57% MLB	23	MLBDET	13	13	70	4.51	4.38	21.2%	9.4%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRylan Kaufman (age 22) · Andrew Faulkner (age 22) · Nate Peterson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%17.1%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$49M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$15M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	12	9	39	166	23	9	0	75%	3.2	9.4%	6.8%	2.6%	0.0%	4.66	3.16	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	12	9	39	166	23	9	0	75%	3.2	9.4%	6.8%	2.6%	0.0%	4.66	3.16	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	12	9	39	166	23	9	0	75%	3.2	13.9%	5.4%	8.4%	0.0%	4.66	2.61	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	46	192	36	12	4	100%	4.2	12.8%	7.8%	4.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.54	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	46	192	36	12	4	100%	4.2	12.8%	7.8%	4.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.54	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	46	192	36	12	4	100%	4.2	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	2.1%	3.94	3.45	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	53	244	57	24	6	63%	2.8	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	3.4%	6.24	5.17	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	53	244	57	24	6	63%	2.8	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	3.4%	6.24	5.17	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	12	53	244	57	24	6	63%	2.8	23.4%	9.8%	13.5%	2.5%	6.24	3.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.1%	10.9%	6.1%	3.0%	5.05	5.05	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	104	439	86	44	13	100%	5.2	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.68	+0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	23	23	122	515	109	48	15	100%	5.3	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.45	+1.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	122	515	114	47	15	100%	5.5	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	2.8%	4.42	4.31	+1.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	120	505	115	45	14	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.24	+1.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	120	507	117	45	14	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	2.8%	4.25	4.21	+1.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	117	495	114	44	14	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	+1.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	112	472	108	43	14	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.30	4.33	+1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	104	440	100	41	14	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.3%	13.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.46	+1.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	95	400	89	39	13	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.64	+0.8
2037	31	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	85	359	79	36	13	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.0%	12.0%	3.6%	4.73	4.84	+0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	76	320	69	33	12	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	3.8%	4.93	5.07	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	36	152	30	15	4	100%	5.1	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	2.8%	4.73	4.61	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	70	296	63	28	8	100%	5.4	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	2.7%	4.51	4.38	+0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	15	15	84	355	79	32	10	100%	5.6	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	2.7%	4.35	4.24	+1.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	93	393	89	35	11	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	2.7%	4.24	4.17	+1.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	100	422	97	37	11	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	2.7%	4.18	4.14	+1.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	101	426	98	38	12	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	2.8%	4.18	4.18	+1.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	99	418	96	38	12	100%	6.2	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.23	4.26	+1.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	94	397	90	37	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.3%	13.4%	3.0%	4.33	4.39	+1.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	86	363	81	35	12	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	3.2%	4.47	4.56	+0.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	78	329	72	33	11	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.0%	12.0%	3.4%	4.65	4.76	+0.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	70	296	64	31	11	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	3.6%	4.84	4.98	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	156	912	3850	860	360	113	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.01	+15.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	79	25	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.01	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		42	32	138	602	80	56	14	76%	3.3	13.2%	9.3%	3.9%	2.3%	5.03	4.41	+12.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	46	200	875	116	81	20	76%	3.3	13.2%	9.3%	3.9%	2.3%	5.03	4.41	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Tigers · 38 IPFIP 4.36 → 6.05 (+1.70)K% 23.2% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.24%	—	×0.680	15.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.35%	—	×1.250	14.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.54%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.36 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 15 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.38 (+0.64)K% 23.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.73%	—	×0.740	17.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×1.180	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Tigers 2 · 46 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.54 (+1.09)K% 18.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.680	12.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.250	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.048	×1.400	2.78%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Tigers 1 · 39 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.16 (+0.55)K% 13.9% → 9.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.86%	—	×0.680	9.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.42%	—	×1.250	6.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.105	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.47	21.1%	11.6%	348	-0.58	—	—	—
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	86
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	85
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	84
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	84
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	83
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	83
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	81
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	81
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	81
Brett Adcock L 2017 · 4.06 FIP	21	SP-	4.06	19.7%	10.0%	2.5%	.294	4.62	17.2%	2.8%	193	+0.56	4.02	301	81
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	81
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	80
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	80
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	79
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	79
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	78
Pat Peterson L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	13.5%	10.6%	1.6%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	108	78
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	78
Matt Tenuta L 2015 · 4.96 FIP	21	SP	4.96	12.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.294	4.47	15.2%	6.4%	278	-0.49	2.85	421	78
Zach Thornton L 2024 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	13.8%	7.2%	1.9%	.335	3.96	20.5%	14.1%	220	+0.06	2.95	288	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	106	21.8%	9.5%	1.17	4.52
Pete Redfern ('76-'82, 3 WAR*)	3.6	119	21.7%*	9.8%*	1.16*	4.74*
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Lynn McGlothen ('72-'82, 13 WAR*)	7.5	150	21.2%*	8.7%*	1.26*	4.50*