Carlos Rodriguez

Carlos Rodriguez P FCL Tigers

Age 20 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 125

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%15.4%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$65M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD4045

K†3055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$9M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$9M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.7	$8M	+$8M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$26M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	12	9	39	166	23	9	0	75%	3.2	9.4%	6.8%	2.6%	0.0%	4.66	3.16	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	12	9	39	166	23	9	0	75%	3.2	9.4%	6.8%	2.6%	0.0%	4.66	3.16	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	12	9	39	166	23	9	0	75%	3.2	13.9%	5.4%	8.4%	0.0%	4.66	2.61	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	46	192	36	12	4	100%	4.2	12.8%	7.8%	4.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.54	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	46	192	36	12	4	100%	4.2	12.8%	7.8%	4.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.54	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	46	192	36	12	4	100%	4.2	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	2.1%	3.94	3.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	19	12	53	244	57	24	6	63%	2.8	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	3.4%	6.24	5.17	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	19	12	53	244	57	24	6	63%	2.8	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	3.4%	6.24	5.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	DET	12	10	38	185	43	21	6	83%	3.2	23.2%	11.4%	11.9%	3.2%	7.75	4.36	—
2026	20	A RAW	DET	7	2	15	59	14	3	0	29%	2.1	23.7%	5.1%	18.6%	0.0%	2.40	1.74	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	6	26	4	2	1	100%	6.2	15.4%	8.2%	7.2%	2.9%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	60	270	61	26	7	—	—	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	2.5%	6.10	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	106	446	73	39	13	100%	4.8	16.4%	8.7%	7.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	+0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	147	620	118	51	17	100%	5.1	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.46	+0.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	33	33	175	739	153	58	21	100%	5.3	20.7%	7.9%	12.8%	2.8%	4.38	4.26	+1.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	32	32	179	757	165	58	21	100%	5.6	21.8%	7.6%	14.2%	2.8%	4.22	4.12	+1.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	31	31	180	760	171	57	21	100%	5.8	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	2.7%	4.11	4.04	+1.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	180	760	173	57	21	100%	6.0	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	2.7%	4.05	4.01	+1.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	177	749	171	57	21	100%	5.9	22.8%	7.5%	15.2%	2.8%	4.05	4.05	+1.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	172	726	165	56	21	100%	5.9	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	2.9%	4.10	4.13	+1.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	DET	27	27	164	694	156	55	21	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	3.0%	4.20	4.26	+1.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	DET	26	26	154	652	144	54	21	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.2%	13.8%	3.2%	4.34	4.44	+0.8
2037	31	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	144	608	132	52	21	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.6%	13.1%	3.5%	4.52	4.64	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	133	562	119	51	21	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	3.7%	4.73	4.87	+0.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	122	516	107	49	21	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	4.0%	4.96	5.12	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	52	220	36	19	6	100%	4.7	16.4%	8.7%	7.8%	2.7%	4.70	4.70	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	107	452	86	37	12	100%	5.1	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	2.7%	4.50	4.39	+0.6
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	28	28	148	625	129	49	17	100%	5.3	20.7%	7.9%	12.8%	2.7%	4.32	4.20	+1.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	29	29	160	676	147	52	18	100%	5.5	21.8%	7.6%	14.2%	2.6%	4.16	4.06	+1.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	28	28	165	697	156	52	18	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	2.6%	4.05	3.98	+1.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	28	28	168	709	162	53	19	100%	6.0	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	2.6%	3.99	3.95	+1.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	28	28	168	709	162	54	19	100%	6.0	22.8%	7.5%	15.2%	2.7%	3.98	3.98	+1.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	DET	27	27	163	688	156	53	19	100%	6.0	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	2.8%	4.03	4.06	+1.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	156	659	148	52	19	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.13	4.19	+1.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	147	621	137	51	19	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.2%	13.8%	3.1%	4.26	4.36	+0.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	DET	23	23	137	578	125	50	19	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.6%	13.1%	3.3%	4.44	4.56	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	127	536	114	48	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	3.6%	4.64	4.78	+0.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	116	490	101	46	19	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	3.8%	4.87	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	313	1813	7657	1659	616	223	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.0%	13.6%	2.9%	4.26	3.89	+22.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	183	68	25	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.0%	13.6%	2.9%	4.26	3.89	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		42	32	138	602	80	56	14	76%	3.3	13.2%	9.3%	3.9%	2.3%	5.03	4.41	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	46	200	875	116	81	20	76%	3.3	13.2%	9.3%	3.9%	2.3%	5.03	4.41	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	15.4%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.45	19.1%	10.9%	428	-0.37	—	—	—
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	83
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	83
Colin Schmid L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SP-	4.81	11.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.298	4.10	15.2%	5.7%	125	-0.71	3.24	191	82
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	81
Jhon Martinez L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	20	SP-	3.73	12.9%	6.1%	1.7%	.262	3.93	11.3%	3.9%	62	+0.20	3.73	102	81
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	80
Isaias Uribe L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	20	SP-	4.10	13.5%	9.0%	1.8%	.319	3.76	16.6%	0.3%	13	-0.34	2.98	123	80
Luis Guzman L 2016 · 4.41 FIP	20	SP-	4.41	14.7%	5.9%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	116	80
Trevor Belicek L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	12.2%	6.3%	1.7%	.295	3.87	16.3%	9.6%	85	+0.06	3.81	142	79
Gabriel Reyes L 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	14.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.347	3.96	19.3%	9.7%	144	-0.07	1.74	233	79
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	79
Matt Tenuta L 2015 · 4.96 FIP	21	SP	4.96	12.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.294	4.47	15.2%	6.4%	278	-0.49	2.85	421	79
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	79
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	79
Avery Short L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP	4.65	15.9%	9.7%	3.0%	.368	4.79	16.8%	7.7%	231	+0.14	4.20	485	78
Caleb Baragar L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	22	SP-	3.65	15.6%	9.2%	1.3%	.300	4.48	16.5%	8.1%	330	+0.83	3.65	557	78
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	78
Packy Naughton L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.62	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.83	3.04	504	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	78
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.5	150	21.3%	8.1%	1.17	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12