Carlos Rodriguez
P
FCL Tigers
Age 20
LHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 130
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
K%15.4%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%6.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 12 | 9 | 39 | 166 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 75% | 3.2 | 9.4% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 4.66 | 3.16 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 12 | 9 | 39 | 166 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 75% | 3.2 | 13.9% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 4.66 | 2.61 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 11 | 11 | 46 | 192 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 12.8% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 4.47 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 11 | 11 | 46 | 192 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.8% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 3.94 | 3.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 12 | 9 | 38 | 182 | 43 | 20 | 5 | 75% | 3.1 | 15.9% | 14.3% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 7.65 | 5.76 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 65 | 274 | 42 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.85 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | DET | — | — | 102 | 456 | 85 | 45 | 13 | — | — | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 5.92 | 5.23 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 106 | 446 | 73 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | DET | 29 | 29 | 147 | 620 | 118 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.65 | 4.54 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | DET | 33 | 33 | 175 | 739 | 153 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.33 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | DET | 32 | 32 | 179 | 757 | 165 | 62 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.20 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | DET | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 171 | 62 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +2.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | DET | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 173 | 61 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +2.8 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | DET | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 171 | 61 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +2.7 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | DET | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 165 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | DET | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 156 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.33 | +2.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | DET | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 144 | 58 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.51 | +1.6 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 132 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 119 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 107 | 52 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 5.03 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 52 | 220 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 107 | 452 | 86 | 40 | 12 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 148 | 625 | 129 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.27 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | DET | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 147 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.8% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.14 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 156 | 57 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.06 | +2.6 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 162 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 4.02 | +2.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | DET | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 162 | 58 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +2.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | DET | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 156 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.13 | +2.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | DET | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 148 | 56 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +2.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 137 | 55 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.43 | +1.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | DET | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 125 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 114 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 101 | 49 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 313 | 1813 | 7657 | 1659 | 663 | 223 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.96 | +30.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 73 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 29 | 122 | 540 | 69 | 52 | 12 | 83% | 3.5 | 12.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 5.31 | 4.50 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 48 | 200 | 885 | 113 | 86 | 20 | 83% | 3.5 | 12.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 5.31 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.53 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 428 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Matt Tenuta L 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.85 | 12.0% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.53 | 15.2% | 6.4% | 278 | -0.32 | 2.88 | 421 | 85 |
| Avery Short L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.80 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .368 | 5.02 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 231 | +0.22 | 4.31 | 460 | 85 |
| Yadiel Batista L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.72 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .318 | 4.30 | 14.1% | 6.1% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.08 | 201 | 85 |
| Packy Naughton L 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.45 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.57 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 311 | -0.88 | 2.97 | 504 | 83 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 82 |
| Colin Schmid L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.81 | 11.8% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 5.7% | 125 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 191 | 80 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 80 |
| Jhon Martinez L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.73 | 12.9% | 6.1% | 1.7% | .262 | 3.93 | 11.3% | 3.9% | 62 | +0.20 | 3.73 | 102 | 80 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.7% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .237 | 3.71 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 344 | -0.22 | 3.39 | 427 | 79 |
| Kevin Garcia L 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.39 | 14.8% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.95 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 80 | -0.44 | 3.10 | 196 | 79 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 79 |
| Hunter Owen L 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.38 | 14.5% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .270 | 4.95 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 146 | +0.57 | 4.06 | 248 | 79 |
| Bernardo Flores Jr. L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.85 | 13.3% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .320 | 4.09 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 353 | +0.24 | 3.80 | 478 | 79 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2029 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 79 |
| Tomas Reyes L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.85 | 15.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.46 | 14.1% | 5.1% | 57 | +0.61 | 3.85 | 154 | 79 |
| Jordan Woods L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .329 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 112 | -0.48 | 3.74 | 143 | 79 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .286 | 6.01 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.22 | 4.79 | 163 | 78 |
| Brett Adcock L 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.56 | 17.2% | 2.8% | 193 | +0.51 | 4.01 | 301 | 78 |
| Mac Lardner L 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 78 |
| Junior Garcia L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.00 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .298 | 2.86 | 24.9% | 13.2% | 92 | -2.14 | 2.19 | 275 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 150 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.17 | 4.44 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |