Zach Thornton

P New York Mets

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 170 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	20	12	68	4.10	3.07	18.4%	6.1%	—	K 13.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.90
2025	23	MIX2 levels	14	14	73	1.98	2.30	28.5%	4.0%	—	K 22.7% · BB 4.5% · FIP 2.95
2026	24	MIX3 levels	29	28	147	3.67	4.22	21.1%	7.4%	2.0	K 19.4% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.46
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYM	10	10	58	4.20	4.57	17.9%	4.9%	0.6
2028PROJ90% MLB	26	MLBNYM	13	13	76	4.35	4.48	18.9%	5.2%	0.8
2029PROJ92% MLB	27	MLBNYM	12	12	71	4.43	4.50	19.1%	5.4%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.471First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs39

K%26

FB Velo19

Form4.50 ERA (proj 4.20) · K 20.2% (proj 17.9%) · BB 3.5% (proj 4.9%) ▲ last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsJake McSteen (age 25) · Colton Gordon (age 25) · Christian Friedrich (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.20

FIP4.57

K%17.9%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p1017.8%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.471 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	13.8%	7.2%	6.6%	1.9%	4.10	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	13.8%	7.2%	6.6%	1.9%	4.10	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	18.4%	6.1%	12.2%	1.4%	4.10	3.07	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.2%	1.98	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.2%	1.98	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	28.5%	4.0%	24.5%	1.8%	1.98	2.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	28	147	606	128	45	22	97%	5.1	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.8%	3.67	4.46	+1.6
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	28	147	606	128	45	22	97%	5.1	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.8%	3.67	4.46	+1.6
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	28	147	606	128	45	22	97%	5.1	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.6%	3.67	4.22	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	15	84	337	63	18	14	100%	5.6	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	4.2%	3.42	4.40	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYM	10	10	58	245	44	12	9	100%	5.8	17.9%	4.9%	13.0%	3.6%	4.20	4.57	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	85	359	68	19	13	100%	6.1	18.9%	5.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.35	4.48	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	78	328	63	18	12	100%	6.0	19.1%	5.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.43	4.50	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	72	304	58	17	11	100%	6.0	19.1%	5.7%	13.4%	3.6%	4.51	4.57	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	62	261	49	16	10	100%	6.2	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.7%	4.64	4.72	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	50	212	38	13	8	100%	6.3	17.9%	6.3%	11.6%	3.9%	4.81	4.93	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYM	6	6	38	161	28	11	7	100%	6.4	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	4.2%	5.02	5.16	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	76	321	61	17	11	100%	5.8	18.9%	5.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.35	4.48	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	71	300	57	16	11	100%	5.9	19.1%	5.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.43	4.50	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	67	283	54	16	10	100%	6.1	19.1%	5.7%	13.4%	3.6%	4.51	4.57	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	58	245	46	15	9	100%	5.8	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.7%	4.63	4.71	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	48	203	36	13	8	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.3%	11.6%	3.9%	4.80	4.92	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	36	152	26	10	6	100%	6.0	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	4.2%	5.01	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	440	1840	343	104	70	100%	6.0	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	3.8%	4.35	4.32	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	836	156	47	32	100%	5.9	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	3.8%	4.35	4.32	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		63	54	288	1174	220	77	35	86%	4.6	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	2.9%	3.35	3.97	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	38	200	816	153	54	24	86%	4.6	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	2.9%	3.35	3.97	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 38 IPFIP 4.88 → 5.25 (+0.37)K% 23.2% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.17%	—	×0.860	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×0.900	9.88%
HR / BF /BF	4.27%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.70%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.88 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 25 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.16 (+0.63)K% 25.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.810	20.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.100	9.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 52 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.25 (+0.73)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.04%	—	×0.810	21.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.59%	—	×1.100	5.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.990	×1.200	2.47%

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 21 IPFIP 1.42 → 2.21 (+0.79)K% 32.1% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.05%	—	×0.770	24.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.56%	—	×1.150	2.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.073	×1.250	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 1.42 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 41 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.73 (+1.10)K% 17.5% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.49%	—	×0.740	12.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.180	10.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷0.826	×1.300	2.58%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 27 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.53 (+0.39)K% 19.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.82%	—	×0.770	15.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.80%	—	×1.150	2.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.90%	÷1.341	×1.250	0.84%

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Thornton (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.51	19.0%	13.6%	235	-0.06	—	—	—
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	79
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	78
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	76
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	76
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	74
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	73
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	73
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	72
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	72
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	72
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	71
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	71
Shane Murphy L 2024 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.4%	4.7%	5.8%	.262	4.77	15.6%	10.2%	272	-0.75	4.00	460	71
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	71
Tim Cooney L 2015 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	18.0%	5.1%	2.4%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	120	71
Zach Hirsch L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP-	3.47	11.2%	3.2%	1.7%	.299	2.82	16.9%	12.0%	59	-0.65	2.82	162	71
Antonio Velez L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SP	5.02	19.5%	6.5%	5.0%	.324	5.02	18.7%	12.5%	26	+0.00	3.58	187	70
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	70
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	70
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	67	18.5%	5.6%	1.45	4.34
Gabe White ('05)	2.9	57	19.0%	5.9%	1.51	4.51
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Julio Mateo ('07)	1.6	64	16.2%	6.4%	1.27	3.68
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80