Zach Thornton
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
+1.0
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.03
FIP4.03
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%14.9%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 20 | 12 | 68 | 294 | 54 | 18 | 4 | 13.8% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 3.87 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 14 | 14 | 73 | 274 | 78 | 11 | 5 | 22.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.98 | 2.96 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 2 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.61 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 66 | 21 | 8 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 81 | 341 | 76 | 24 | 8 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 3.85 | 3.52 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 68 | 22 | 8 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.00 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 69 | 22 | 8 | 22.7% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.00 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 69 | 22 | 8 | 22.8% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 68 | 22 | 8 | 22.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 66 | 22 | 8 | 22.6% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.11 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 63 | 22 | 8 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 60 | 21 | 8 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 21 | 8 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 54 | 20 | 8 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 47 | 19 | 8 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 28 | 151 | 609 | 113 | 36 | 12 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 2.98 | 3.33 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 37 | 200 | 807 | 150 | 48 | 16 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 2.98 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Thornton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.01 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 216 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Keith Hessler L 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 23.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.42 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 156 | +0.86 | 3.29 | 228 | 88 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 87 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 84 |
| Kevin Canelon L 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 2.74 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 1.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 289 | 84 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.62 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .360 | 3.10 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 91 | -0.52 | 2.14 | 246 | 83 |
| Greg Nappo L 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 83 |
| Josh Dye L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.36 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 79 | +1.87 | 2.79 | 238 | 83 |
| Luis Avilán L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.42 | 22.3% | 5.9% | 2.6% | .276 | 2.71 | 26.1% | 17.6% | 145 | -0.71 | 2.65 | 256 | 82 |
| Jonah Hurney L 2026 · 2.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 2.84 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 1.1% | .285 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 7.2% | 64 | +0.98 | 2.84 | 119 | 82 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.12 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .322 | 3.79 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 67 | +0.67 | 3.01 | 176 | 81 |
| Tyler Holton L 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.30 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .393 | 3.40 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 224 | +0.10 | 2.93 | 367 | 80 |
| Andy Fisher L 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.21 | 22.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | .242 | 3.65 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 89 | +0.44 | 3.12 | 167 | 79 |
| Christian Jones L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.32 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .319 | 3.98 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.32 | 161 | 79 |
| Liarvis Breto L 2027 · 2.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.90 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.72 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 30 | +0.82 | 2.83 | 148 | 78 |
| Josh Osich L 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .241 | 4.78 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 315 | 78 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 78 |
| José Torres L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.64 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 204 | 77 |
| Ryan Anderson L 2026 · 2.81 FIP | 24 | SW | 2.81 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 1.1% | .245 | 3.69 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 71 | +0.88 | 2.81 | 214 | 77 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.68 | 18.5% | 4.6% | 1.0% | .258 | 3.20 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 270 | +0.52 | 2.68 | 740 | 77 |
| Brett Martin L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.00 | 23.8% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .336 | 3.59 | 16.8% | 10.4% | 127 | +0.59 | 3.00 | 538 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | -$1.0M |
| Totals | $10M | $18M | +$8M | ||