Zach Thornton — OGILVIE

Zach Thornton P New York Mets

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 170 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION136 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA3.71

FIP3.71

K%19.7%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL6060

CMD6070

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$8M	+$4M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.2	$7M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$37M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	13.8%	7.2%	6.6%	1.9%	4.10	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	13.8%	7.2%	6.6%	1.9%	4.10	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	18.4%	6.1%	12.2%	1.4%	4.10	3.07	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.2%	1.98	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.2%	1.98	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	28.5%	4.0%	24.5%	1.8%	1.98	2.30	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	13	73	293	55	16	12	100%	5.6	18.8%	5.5%	13.3%	4.1%	3.44	4.38	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	27	26	136	562	120	43	20	96%	5.0	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.7%	3.71	4.46	+0.7
YTD	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	27	26	136	562	120	43	20	96%	5.0	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.7%	3.71	4.46	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	NYM	5	5	25	105	27	9	1	100%	5.0	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	1.0%	3.60	2.54	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	NYM	9	8	38	164	38	18	7	89%	4.2	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	4.3%	4.30	4.88	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	NYM	13	13	73	293	55	16	12	100%	5.6	18.8%	5.5%	13.3%	4.1%	3.44	4.45	+0.4
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	NYM	13	13	73	293	55	16	12	100%	5.6	18.8%	5.5%	13.3%	4.1%	3.44	4.45	+0.4
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYM	1	1	7	31	6	2	1	100%	7.2	19.7%	5.5%	14.2%	2.9%	3.71	3.71	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	NYM	1	1	7	30	6	2	1	100%	7.0	19.7%	5.5%	14.2%	2.9%	3.71	3.71	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	143	593	126	45	21	—	—	21.3%	7.5%	13.7%	3.5%	3.71	4.43	+0.8
FULL	24	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	81	340	126	45	21	—	—	37.0%	13.1%	23.9%	6.1%	6.59	5.00	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	147	620	126	29	20	100%	5.9	20.3%	4.7%	15.6%	3.2%	4.15	4.13	+1.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	154	650	134	32	21	100%	5.9	20.6%	4.9%	15.7%	3.2%	4.13	4.11	+1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	156	657	136	34	21	100%	6.0	20.7%	5.1%	15.6%	3.2%	4.15	4.16	+1.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	156	657	135	35	22	100%	6.0	20.6%	5.3%	15.2%	3.3%	4.20	4.24	+1.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	149	627	128	35	22	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.30	4.37	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	140	590	118	34	22	100%	6.1	20.0%	5.8%	14.1%	3.7%	4.45	4.55	+0.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	130	550	108	34	21	100%	5.9	19.6%	6.2%	13.4%	3.9%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	120	509	97	34	21	100%	6.0	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	4.2%	4.84	4.98	-0.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	111	467	87	33	21	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	4.4%	5.07	5.23	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	140	591	120	28	19	100%	5.8	20.3%	4.7%	15.6%	3.2%	4.15	4.13	+1.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	146	616	127	30	20	100%	6.1	20.6%	4.9%	15.7%	3.2%	4.13	4.11	+1.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	148	625	129	32	20	100%	5.9	20.7%	5.1%	15.6%	3.2%	4.15	4.16	+1.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	148	625	129	33	21	100%	5.9	20.6%	5.3%	15.2%	3.3%	4.20	4.24	+1.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	141	595	121	33	21	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.30	4.37	+0.9
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	133	562	112	33	21	100%	6.0	20.0%	5.8%	14.1%	3.7%	4.44	4.54	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	124	524	103	32	20	100%	5.9	19.6%	6.2%	13.4%	3.9%	4.62	4.74	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	114	481	92	32	20	100%	6.0	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	4.1%	4.83	4.97	-0.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	105	443	83	31	20	100%	5.8	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	4.4%	5.06	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		215	215	1279	5384	1076	302	193	100%	5.9	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	3.6%	4.34	4.09	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	842	168	47	30	100%	6.0	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	3.6%	4.34	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		61	52	277	1130	211	75	33	85%	4.5	18.7%	6.7%	12.0%	2.9%	3.35	3.95	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	38	200	817	153	55	24	85%	4.5	18.7%	6.7%	12.0%	2.9%	3.35	3.95	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Thornton (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.75	20.3%	3.7%	2.7%	—	4.13	20.5%	15.6%	456	+0.38	—	—	—
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	78
John King L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	24	SP	2.85	18.1%	3.9%	1.4%	.310	3.90	17.4%	11.3%	125	+1.05	2.85	439	76
Michael Plassmeyer L 2021 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	21.5%	5.4%	4.2%	.337	4.77	21.1%	13.5%	266	+0.51	3.42	653	73
Brant Hurter L 2023 · 3.07 FIP	24	SP	3.07	21.6%	7.3%	1.6%	.311	3.51	20.6%	13.6%	207	+0.44	2.84	432	73
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	72
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.35	18.2%	9.2%	348	+0.19	4.07	614	72
Patrick Corbin L 2015 · 3.34 FIP	26	SP	3.34	20.6%	5.3%	2.4%	.312	3.46	24.1%	17.2%	545	+0.12	2.30	1,829	72
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	72
Dylan Dodd L 2022 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	20.4%	6.0%	2.1%	.323	4.87	17.4%	11.3%	277	+1.56	3.31	471	71
Antonio Velez L 2021 · 3.58 FIP	24	SP-	3.58	19.0%	3.3%	3.0%	.241	5.02	19.3%	12.9%	88	+1.44	3.58	187	71
Tim Cooney L 2015 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	18.0%	5.1%	2.4%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	120	71
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	71
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	70
Ryan Rolison L 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	21.5%	6.9%	3.0%	.320	5.21	14.5%	9.5%	35	+1.40	3.81	386	70
Brett Oberholtzer L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	26	SP	4.18	15.7%	6.4%	2.9%	.299	4.77	13.8%	5.9%	334	+0.59	3.89	442	70
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	70
Joe Rock L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP	4.44	22.1%	8.9%	3.8%	.335	4.16	18.8%	10.4%	289	-0.28	3.82	486	69
Will Dion L 2023 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	22.3%	8.4%	2.0%	.289	4.06	21.2%	13.2%	294	+0.69	3.09	526	69
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	69
Nick Bush L 2021 · 3.48 FIP	24	SP-	3.48	19.4%	6.5%	2.2%	.343	4.76	19.3%	15.0%	100	+1.28	3.48	320	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	133	20.1%	5.5%	1.37	4.37
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75