Zach Thornton
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 24
LHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8190vR 99
ERA3.49
FIP3.49
K%20.4%
BB%4.6%
K-BB%15.8%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1592.0
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p540.308
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 12 | 68 | 294 | 54 | 18 | 4 | 60% | 3.4 | 13.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 4.10 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 12 | 68 | 294 | 54 | 18 | 4 | 60% | 3.4 | 18.4% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 4.10 | 3.07 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 73 | 274 | 78 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.7% | 4.5% | 18.2% | 2.2% | 1.98 | 2.95 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 73 | 274 | 78 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 28.5% | 4.0% | 24.5% | 1.8% | 1.98 | 2.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 17 | 16 | 80 | 336 | 80 | 32 | 9 | 94% | 4.7 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 4.6% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 3.49 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.4% | 4.6% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 3.48 | 3.48 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 130 | 547 | 123 | 42 | 15 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 3.63 | 3.94 | +2.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 67 | 284 | 123 | 42 | 15 | — | — | 43.3% | 14.7% | 28.7% | 5.2% | 7.01 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 61 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.3% | 4.5% | 16.8% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 62 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.6% | 4.8% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.72 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 61 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.7% | 5.1% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 59 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 5.3% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 12 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 4.5% | 16.8% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 59 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 4.8% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 59 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 5.1% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 57 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.6% | 5.3% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 56 | 322 | 1353 | 290 | 67 | 36 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.4% | 5.0% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.38 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 841 | 180 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 5.0% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 42 | 221 | 904 | 173 | 67 | 23 | 82% | 4.3 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 3.26 | 3.80 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 38 | 200 | 819 | 157 | 61 | 20 | 82% | 4.3 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 3.26 | 3.80 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Thornton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.73 | 20.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | — | 3.74 | 21.5% | 16.8% | 203 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| John King L 2026 · 2.76 FIP | 24 | SP | 2.76 | 18.1% | 3.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.97 | 17.4% | 11.3% | 125 | +1.21 | 2.76 | 430 | 76 |
| Antonio Velez L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.46 | 19.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | .241 | 4.88 | 19.3% | 12.9% | 88 | +1.42 | 3.46 | 187 | 74 |
| Brant Hurter L 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.03 | 21.6% | 7.3% | 1.5% | .311 | 3.81 | 21.1% | 13.6% | 205 | +0.78 | 2.84 | 430 | 71 |
| Dalton Pence L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 71 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.21 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .300 | 3.81 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 290 | +0.60 | 3.21 | 372 | 71 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.64 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .281 | 4.54 | 19.8% | 2.8% | 69 | +0.90 | 3.61 | 409 | 71 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 70 |
| Joe Whitman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.35 | 22.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 302 | 70 |
| Patrick Corbin L 2028 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.29 | 20.6% | 5.3% | 2.3% | .312 | 3.39 | 24.1% | 17.2% | 545 | +0.10 | 2.20 | 1,825 | 70 |
| Ryan Hartman L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.17 | 24.2% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .312 | 5.49 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 215 | +2.32 | 3.17 | 456 | 69 |
| Michael Plassmeyer L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.47 | 21.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | .337 | 4.79 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 266 | +0.32 | 3.41 | 675 | 69 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 69 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.41 | 20.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .323 | 4.95 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 277 | +1.54 | 3.41 | 452 | 69 |
| Jackson Wolf L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.99 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .279 | 4.52 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 306 | +0.53 | 3.99 | 572 | 68 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 68 |
| Ben Shields L 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.20 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 2.91 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.29 | 2.91 | 147 | 68 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.63 | 21.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .320 | 5.03 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 35 | +1.40 | 3.63 | 362 | 67 |
| Ben Brecht L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 21.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 118 | 67 |
| David Leal L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 20.8% | 2.4% | 4.7% | .326 | 4.73 | 14.9% | 10.0% | 284 | +0.49 | 1.36 | 443 | 67 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 21.3% | 4.6% | 1.06 | 3.76 |
| Craig Stammen ('22) | 6 | 66 | 23.0% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 3.36 |
| Tommy Hunter ('23) | 7 | 41 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.00 | 3.72 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| Yusmeiro Petit ('21) | 7 | 72 | 20.4% | 4.6% | 1.27 | 3.28 |
| Addison Reed ('18) | 4 | 66 | 24.0% | 5.7% | 0.98 | 3.05 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |