Shane Murphy
P
Birmingham Barons
+1.0
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.7%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%12.0%
IP112
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 5 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.36 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 21 | 21 | 97 | 384 | 98 | 23 | 13 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.63 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 23 | 16 | 101 | 411 | 86 | 22 | 16 | 16.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.44 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 26 | 23 | 135 | 507 | 104 | 25 | 12 | 16.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.66 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 2 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 112 | 474 | 88 | 32 | 16 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 123 | 518 | 99 | 34 | 17 | 19.2% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.16 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 98 | 34 | 17 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 102 | 35 | 17 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 103 | 36 | 17 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 100 | 36 | 17 | 19.8% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 96 | 35 | 17 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 91 | 34 | 16 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 86 | 34 | 16 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 81 | 33 | 16 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 76 | 32 | 15 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 70 | 31 | 15 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 64 | 30 | 14 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.13 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 64 | 352 | 1381 | 235 | 78 | 61 | 17.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.12 | 4.80 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 785 | 134 | 44 | 35 | 17.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.12 | 4.80 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.49 | 19.7% | 12.9% | 364 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 87 |
| Brant Hurter L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | .298 | 2.88 | 24.5% | 15.8% | 63 | -0.99 | 2.88 | 404 | 86 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.14 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | .322 | 5.19 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 172 | +0.05 | 2.22 | 286 | 85 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 84 |
| Michael Sansone L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.27 | 15.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 186 | 84 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 84 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.91 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .318 | 3.57 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.34 | 3.08 | 681 | 84 |
| Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 84 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 83 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 82 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 82 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 82 |
| Jackson Kent L 2023 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 81 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 6.3% | 11 | -0.01 | 3.78 | 295 | 80 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 80 |
| Colton Gordon L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.02 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.75 | 19.8% | 14.1% | 157 | +0.73 | 2.72 | 463 | 80 |
| Matt Moore L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.53 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.39 | 2.83 | 845 | 80 |
| Felix Doubront L 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 79 |
| Tim Cooney L 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 120 | 79 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.5 | $3M | -$0.4M |
| Totals | $10M | $33M | +$23M | ||