Shane Murphy — OGILVIE

Shane Murphy P Charlotte Knights

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION141 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%15.2%

BB%3.9%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF4545

CTRL—60

CMD6060

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	2	7	35	3	4	0	40%	1.5	8.6%	11.4%	-2.9%	0.0%	7.36	3.82	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	2	7	35	3	4	0	40%	1.5	8.6%	11.4%	-2.9%	0.0%	7.36	3.92	—
2023	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	97	384	98	23	13	100%	4.6	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	5.1%	3.63	5.21	—
2023	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	97	384	98	23	13	100%	4.6	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	5.1%	3.63	5.21	—
2023	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	97	384	98	23	13	100%	4.6	25.5%	6.0%	19.5%	3.4%	3.63	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	16.4%	4.7%	11.7%	5.8%	4.44	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	16.4%	4.7%	11.7%	5.8%	4.44	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	20.9%	5.4%	15.6%	3.9%	4.44	4.11	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	16.0%	4.9%	11.1%	3.0%	1.66	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	16.0%	4.9%	11.1%	3.0%	1.66	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	2.4%	1.66	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	26	22	141	595	108	34	28	85%	5.4	14.9%	5.5%	9.4%	5.2%	4.52	5.41	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	26	22	141	595	108	34	28	85%	5.4	14.9%	5.5%	9.4%	5.2%	4.52	5.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CWS	9	8	53	215	44	12	3	89%	5.9	20.5%	5.6%	14.9%	1.4%	3.21	2.84	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CWS	17	14	88	380	64	22	25	82%	5.2	16.8%	5.8%	11.1%	6.6%	5.32	6.02	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CWS	1	1	7	30	5	1	1	100%	7.1	15.2%	3.9%	11.2%	3.3%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	148	625	113	35	29	—	—	18.0%	5.6%	12.4%	4.6%	4.52	5.37	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	145	614	102	26	20	100%	6.1	16.6%	4.2%	12.3%	3.2%	4.43	4.40	+0.8
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	147	622	105	28	20	100%	5.9	17.0%	4.6%	12.4%	3.3%	4.43	4.43	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	147	622	106	30	21	100%	5.9	17.1%	4.9%	12.2%	3.4%	4.47	4.50	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	141	594	101	31	21	100%	6.1	17.0%	5.2%	11.8%	3.5%	4.56	4.63	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	132	558	93	31	21	100%	6.0	16.6%	5.5%	11.1%	3.7%	4.71	4.80	+0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	123	521	84	30	20	100%	5.9	16.2%	5.8%	10.4%	3.9%	4.89	5.01	-0.2
2033	32	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	114	482	76	30	20	100%	6.0	15.8%	6.2%	9.5%	4.2%	5.10	5.23	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	70	296	49	13	10	100%	5.8	16.6%	4.2%	12.3%	3.3%	4.46	4.43	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	97	410	69	19	14	100%	6.1	17.0%	4.6%	12.4%	3.3%	4.46	4.46	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	114	481	82	24	16	100%	6.0	17.1%	4.9%	12.2%	3.4%	4.50	4.53	+0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	116	490	83	25	17	100%	6.1	17.0%	5.2%	11.8%	3.6%	4.59	4.66	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	115	486	81	27	18	100%	6.1	16.6%	5.5%	11.1%	3.8%	4.75	4.84	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	110	464	75	27	19	100%	6.1	16.2%	5.8%	10.4%	4.0%	4.93	5.05	-0.1
2033	32	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	104	439	69	27	19	100%	6.1	15.8%	6.2%	9.5%	4.3%	5.14	5.27	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	727	3068	510	162	113	100%	6.0	16.6%	5.3%	11.3%	3.7%	4.70	4.39	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	140	45	31	100%	6.0	16.6%	5.3%	11.3%	3.7%	4.70	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		101	84	482	1932	313	108	90	83%	4.8	16.2%	5.6%	10.6%	4.6%	3.57	5.00	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	35	200	802	130	45	37	83%	4.8	16.2%	5.6%	10.6%	4.6%	3.57	5.00	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	15.2%	3.9%	3.3%	—	4.44	16.9%	12.3%	440	-0.05	—	—	—
Zach Hirsch L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP-	3.47	11.2%	3.2%	1.7%	.299	2.82	16.9%	12.0%	59	-0.65	2.82	162	81
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	79
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	78
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	73
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	73
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	73
Jimmy Reed L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	24	SP	3.66	12.9%	4.3%	2.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	137	72
Eric Jokisch L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	11.1%	7.1%	2.3%	.307	4.05	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.29	3.78	412	72
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	71
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	71
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	71
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	71
Brett Oberholtzer L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	26	SP	4.18	15.7%	6.4%	2.9%	.299	4.77	13.8%	5.9%	334	+0.59	3.89	442	71
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	71
Brian Holmes L 2016 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP-	3.60	19.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.313	5.91	15.5%	3.8%	53	+2.31	3.60	205	71
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	70
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	70
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	70
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	70
Matthew Crownover L 2018 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	377	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	129	16.5%	5.1%	1.37	4.62
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75