Shane Murphy

P Charlotte Knights

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	16	101	4.44	4.11	20.9%	5.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 4.7% · FIP 5.52
2025	24	MIX3 levels	26	23	135	1.66	3.27	20.5%	4.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 4.9% · FIP 4.00
2026	25	MIX2 levels	27	23	146	4.43	4.91	17.9%	5.9%	—	K 15.1% · BB 5.7% · FIP 5.43
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	2	2	9	5.20	5.20	13.8%	4.2%	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	27	MLBCWS	6	6	36	5.12	5.14	14.6%	4.7%	0.1
2029PROJ50% MLB	28	MLBCWS	8	8	50	5.11	5.15	15.0%	5.0%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsDylan Dodd (age 26) · Kyle Hald (age 26) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%13.8%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	2	7	35	3	4	0	40%	1.5	8.6%	11.4%	-2.9%	0.0%	7.36	3.82	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	2	7	35	3	4	0	40%	1.5	8.6%	11.4%	-2.9%	0.0%	7.36	3.92	—
2023	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	97	384	98	23	13	100%	4.6	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	5.1%	3.63	5.21	—
2023	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	97	384	98	23	13	100%	4.6	25.5%	6.0%	19.5%	3.4%	3.63	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	16.4%	4.7%	11.7%	5.8%	4.44	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	16.4%	4.7%	11.7%	5.8%	4.44	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	20.9%	5.4%	15.6%	3.9%	4.44	4.11	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	16.1%	4.9%	11.2%	3.0%	1.66	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	16.1%	4.9%	11.2%	3.0%	1.66	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	2.4%	1.66	3.27	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	146	613	110	36	29	85%	5.4	15.1%	5.7%	9.4%	5.3%	4.43	5.43	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	146	613	110	36	29	85%	5.4	15.1%	5.7%	9.4%	5.3%	4.43	5.43	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	146	613	110	36	29	85%	5.4	17.9%	5.9%	12.1%	4.7%	4.43	4.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	2	2	9	38	5	2	2	100%	4.5	13.8%	4.2%	9.6%	4.3%	5.20	5.20	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	108	458	67	21	19	100%	6.0	14.6%	4.7%	9.9%	4.2%	5.12	5.14	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	100	420	63	21	18	100%	5.9	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	4.2%	5.11	5.15	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	91	383	58	21	16	100%	6.0	15.1%	5.4%	9.8%	4.3%	5.17	5.24	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	82	345	52	20	15	100%	5.8	15.0%	5.8%	9.2%	4.5%	5.29	5.39	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	36	152	22	7	6	100%	6.0	14.6%	4.7%	9.9%	4.2%	5.12	5.14	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	50	211	32	11	9	100%	6.2	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	4.2%	5.11	5.15	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	54	228	35	12	10	100%	6.0	15.1%	5.4%	9.8%	4.3%	5.17	5.24	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	56	236	35	14	11	100%	6.2	15.0%	5.8%	9.2%	4.5%	5.29	5.39	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	33	196	826	124	43	36	100%	5.9	15.0%	5.3%	9.7%	4.3%	5.18	4.86	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	127	44	37	100%	6.0	15.0%	5.3%	9.7%	4.3%	5.18	4.86	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		102	85	487	1950	317	110	91	83%	4.8	16.2%	5.6%	10.6%	4.7%	3.55	5.00	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	35	200	801	130	45	37	83%	4.8	16.2%	5.6%	10.6%	4.7%	3.55	5.00	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 93 IPFIP 6.05 → 6.53 (+0.48)K% 16.6% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.58%	—	×0.860	14.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.03%	—	×0.900	5.43%
HR / BF /BF	6.53%	÷1.000	×1.100	7.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.05 → 6.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 53 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.40 (+0.55)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.47%	—	×0.810	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.58%	—	×1.100	6.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 111 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.88 (+0.94)K% 20.1% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.10%	—	×0.810	16.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.68%	—	×1.100	4.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷0.784	×1.200	3.00%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 15 IPFIP 5.03 → 4.77 (−0.26)K% 16.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.95%	—	×0.860	14.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.86%	—	×0.900	10.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.320	×1.100	2.83%

Result: FIP 5.03 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 10 IPFIP 4.26 → 5.96 (+1.70)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.150	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.923	×1.250	6.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 4.26 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 91 IPFIP 3.92 → 5.52 (+1.60)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.25%	—	×0.770	16.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.09%	—	×1.150	4.70%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷0.817	×1.250	5.84%

Result: FIP 3.92 → 5.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 10 IPFIP 6.07 → 6.29 (+0.22)K% 18.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.860	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.91%	—	×0.900	14.32%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.016	×1.100	4.92%

Result: FIP 6.07 → 6.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 97 IPFIP 3.56 → 5.21 (+1.65)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.52%	—	×0.740	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.99%	—	×1.180	7.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷0.861	×1.300	5.11%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.3%	—	5.17	14.9%	9.9%	299	-0.03	—	—	—
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	82
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	74
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	74
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	74
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	72
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	72
Matthew Crownover L 2018 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	377	72
Daniel Camarena L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	26	SP	4.90	18.5%	4.9%	5.0%	.335	4.47	14.9%	6.6%	83	-0.43	3.76	674	72
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	72
Lance Davis L 2001 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	11.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	106	71
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	71
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	71
Matt Whitehouse L 2017 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP-	4.68	14.6%	6.1%	3.7%	.291	4.32	18.5%	6.6%	165	-0.36	3.37	353	70
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	70
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	70
Dillon Peters L 2019 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	17.7%	7.3%	5.0%	.323	4.86	20.5%	11.3%	119	-0.41	2.56	598	70
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	70
P.J. Conlon L 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	13.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	392	69
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	69
Drew Parrish L 2024 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP-	4.66	20.2%	4.8%	4.9%	.290	4.93	15.1%	5.7%	70	+0.27	3.47	522	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	94	14.7%	5.0%	1.65	5.17
Josh Towers ('09)	3.7	104	12.3%	3.9%	1.50	4.95
Paul Mitchell ('75-'80, 1 WAR*)	3.1	104	16.7%*	7.1%*	1.59*	4.98*
Glenn Abbott ('73-'84, 4 WAR*)	6.4	129	13.9%*	6.4%*	1.57*	4.74*
Blake Beavan ('14)	1.5	98	11.1%	3.8%	1.41	4.61
Tommy Milone ('23)	4.8	95	17.4%	5.7%	1.53	4.58
Bill Laskey ('82-'88, 2 WAR*)	3.7	124	13.8%*	6.6%*	1.44*	4.97*