Shane Murphy
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 79 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 128
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
K%15.3%
BB%4.4%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP79
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 167 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 40% | 1.5 | 8.6% | 11.4% | -2.9% | 0.0% | 7.36 | 3.82 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 40% | 1.5 | 8.6% | 11.4% | -2.9% | 0.0% | 7.36 | 3.92 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 21 | 21 | 97 | 384 | 98 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 3.63 | 5.75 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 21 | 21 | 97 | 384 | 98 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.5% | 6.0% | 19.5% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 3.53 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 16 | 101 | 411 | 86 | 22 | 16 | 70% | 4.4 | 16.4% | 4.7% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 4.44 | 6.44 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 16 | 101 | 411 | 86 | 22 | 16 | 70% | 4.4 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 4.44 | 4.11 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 23 | 135 | 507 | 104 | 25 | 12 | 88% | 5.2 | 16.1% | 5.1% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 1.66 | 4.53 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 23 | 135 | 507 | 104 | 25 | 12 | 88% | 5.2 | 20.5% | 4.9% | 15.6% | 2.4% | 1.66 | 3.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 17 | 14 | 89 | 389 | 66 | 22 | 23 | 82% | 5.2 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.99 | 6.23 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 79 | 332 | 51 | 15 | 12 | 100% | 6.5 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 8.0 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 167 | 721 | 117 | 37 | 35 | — | — | 16.2% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 5.43 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 8 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 15.3% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 79 | 332 | 56 | 16 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.8% | 4.9% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 77 | 327 | 56 | 17 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.2% | 5.3% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.8% | 4.9% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 37 | 11 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.2% | 5.3% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 16 | 97 | 409 | 69 | 21 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.9% | 5.1% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 4.32 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 142 | 43 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.9% | 5.1% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 76 | 429 | 1726 | 281 | 100 | 100 | 83% | 4.7 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 3.75 | 5.63 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 35 | 200 | 804 | 131 | 46 | 46 | 83% | 4.7 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 3.75 | 5.63 | -0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | — | 4.69 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 156 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | .322 | 5.74 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 172 | +0.28 | 2.22 | 286 | 80 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.86 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.87 | 14.9% | 6.2% | 162 | +0.01 | 3.39 | 261 | 79 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.54 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | 4.08 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 45 | -0.46 | 3.65 | 328 | 77 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 76 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 75 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 75 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 174 | 74 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.95 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.17 | 3.37 | 440 | 73 |
| Brant Hurter L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | .298 | 3.14 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 88 | -1.18 | 2.84 | 430 | 73 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.47 | 11.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .307 | 4.10 | 14.7% | 6.8% | 342 | -0.37 | 3.80 | 412 | 73 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 73 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .318 | 3.49 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 681 | 73 |
| Nick Bush L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.78 | 19.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 320 | 73 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.80 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .327 | 4.56 | 10.7% | 3.9% | 181 | -1.24 | 3.63 | 322 | 73 |
| Chris Jones L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.03 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 118 | +0.34 | 3.69 | 268 | 72 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 14.8% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 141 | 72 |
| Devin Futrell L 2024 · 5.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.79 | 19.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 119 | 72 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 72 |
| Antonio Velez L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.70 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | .324 | 5.31 | 18.7% | 12.5% | 26 | +0.61 | 3.46 | 187 | 72 |
| Matthew Crownover L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 12.1% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 377 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 78 | 16.4% | 4.9% | 1.42 | 4.73 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Paolo Espino ('22) | 3 | 82 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.82 | 4.70 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 5 | 53 | 16.7% | 3.0% | 1.12 | 3.93 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |