Antonio Velez — OGILVIE

Antonio Velez P Aberdeen IronBirds

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%22.6%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	99	380	93	11	10	61%	4.3	19.0%	3.3%	15.7%	3.0%	2.55	3.58	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	14	99	380	93	11	10	61%	4.3	24.5%	2.9%	21.6%	2.6%	2.55	2.87	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	13	64	278	68	16	13	81%	4.0	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	5.0%	5.60	5.02	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	13	64	278	68	16	13	81%	4.0	24.5%	5.8%	18.7%	4.7%	5.60	4.36	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	33	144	31	9	7	0%	1.6	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	4.9%	5.51	5.02	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	33	144	31	9	7	0%	1.6	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	4.9%	5.51	5.02	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	33	144	31	9	7	0%	1.6	21.5%	6.2%	15.3%	4.9%	5.51	4.81	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.4%	14.2%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	19	7	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	3.2%	4.41	4.48	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	3.2%	4.41	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	3.2%	4.41	4.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	66	33	0%	1.1	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	3.2%	4.41	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		59	27	196	802	154	40	33	46%	3.3	19.1%	5.0%	14.2%	4.1%	4.04	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	28	200	818	157	41	33	46%	3.3	19.1%	5.0%	14.2%	4.1%	4.04	4.34	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antonio Velez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	22.6%	8.4%	3.0%	—	4.48	22.3%	13.5%	20	+0.18	—	—	—
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	71
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	65
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	65
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	65
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	64
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	64
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	64
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	64
David Huff L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	30	SW	3.40	17.1%	3.8%	2.3%	.271	4.06	19.5%	14.6%	52	+0.66	3.40	158	63
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	189	61
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	61
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	60
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	59
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	59
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	59
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	59
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	58
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	58
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	57
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	56