Antonio Velez
P
Aberdeen IronBirds
Age 29
LHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99109vR 118
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 14 | 99 | 380 | 93 | 11 | 10 | 61% | 4.3 | 19.0% | 3.3% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 2.55 | 3.46 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 14 | 99 | 380 | 93 | 11 | 10 | 61% | 4.3 | 24.5% | 2.9% | 21.6% | 2.6% | 2.55 | 2.87 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 13 | 64 | 278 | 68 | 16 | 13 | 81% | 4.0 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 5.60 | 4.70 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 13 | 64 | 278 | 68 | 16 | 13 | 81% | 4.0 | 24.5% | 5.8% | 18.7% | 4.7% | 5.60 | 4.36 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 33 | 144 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.7% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 5.51 | 5.31 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 33 | 144 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.5% | 6.2% | 15.3% | 4.9% | 5.51 | 4.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.13 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 66 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 59 | 27 | 196 | 802 | 154 | 40 | 31 | 46% | 3.3 | 19.1% | 5.0% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 4.04 | 4.22 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 28 | 200 | 818 | 157 | 41 | 31 | 46% | 3.3 | 19.1% | 5.0% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 4.04 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Antonio Velez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.51 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 20 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 72 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 67 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 64 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 64 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 63 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 63 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 63 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 61 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 60 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 60 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 59 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 12.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.42 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 140 | +0.88 | 3.54 | 189 | 58 |
| Onelki Garcia L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.07 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 164 | 58 |
| Joey Lucchesi L 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.19 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .297 | 4.74 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 243 | +1.55 | 3.19 | 817 | 58 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | 4.86 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 69 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 523 | 58 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 58 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 57 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 56 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 56 |
| Alex Wood L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.91 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 3.3% | .349 | 3.58 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 367 | -0.33 | 3.05 | 1,009 | 56 |