Braden Montgomery
OF Chicago White Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 572 | .278/.379/.460 | 13 | 17 | 101 | — | .236/.304/.384 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA/AACWS | 258 | .314/.431/.548 | 10 | 5 | 134 | — | .285/.376/.477 |
| 2026 | 23 | MLBCWS | 365 | .226/.313/.350 | 6 | 1 | 89 | -0.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 24 | MLBCWS | 272 | .238/.324/.377 | 6 | 3 | 98 | 0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 25 | MLBCWS | 494 | .243/.329/.399 | 14 | 6 | 105 | 1.3 | |
| 2029PROJ82% MLB | 26 | MLBCWS | 476 | .246/.332/.413 | 15 | 5 | 109 | 1.5 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 143 | 125 | 34 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 272 | 364 | 416 | 780 | 144 | 398 | 29 | 10 | 351 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 290 | 254 | 66 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 70 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 260 | 349 | 445 | 794 | 185 | 328 | 24 | 11 | 353 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 84 | 69 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 304 | 407 | 493 | 900 | 188 | 360 | 23 | 12 | 387 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 55 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 366 | 527 | 634 | 1.161 | 268 | 500 | 22 | 24 | 501 | 225 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 365 | 323 | 73 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 72 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 226 | 313 | 350 | 663 | 124 | 272 | 20 | 10 | 301 | 89 | -5 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 132 | 111 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 315 | 420 | 495 | 915 | 180 | 408 | 24 | 14 | 405 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 126 | 99 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 313 | 443 | 606 | 1.049 | 293 | 385 | 25 | 17 | 439 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 365 | 323 | 73 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 72 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 226 | 313 | 350 | 663 | 124 | 272 | 20 | 10 | 301 | 90 | -4 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 143 | 130 | 34 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 262 | 329 | 400 | 729 | 138 | 410 | 34 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 290 | 265 | 56 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 96 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 211 | 277 | 355 | 632 | 143 | 302 | 33 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 84 | 72 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 278 | 358 | 458 | 816 | 181 | 335 | 31 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 365 | 323 | 73 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 72 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 226 | 313 | 350 | 663 | 124 | 272 | 20 | 10 | 300 | 89 | -5 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 132 | 116 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 284 | 366 | 422 | 789 | 138 | 401 | 29 | 10 | 351 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 126 | 105 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 286 | 385 | 533 | 919 | 248 | 349 | 31 | 12 | 383 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 572 | 518 | 123 | 33 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 189 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 237 | 305 | 386 | 691 | 149 | 346 | 33 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 572 | 489 | 136 | 40 | 5 | 13 | 70 | 142 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 278 | 379 | 460 | 839 | 182 | 364 | 25 | 12 | 372 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 623 | 544 | 136 | 28 | 6 | 14 | 66 | 149 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 250 | 339 | 401 | 739 | 151 | 315 | 24 | 11 | 328 | 108 | +6 | -2 | +0 | -4 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 623 | 533 | 139 | 29 | 6 | 16 | 77 | 136 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 261 | 361 | 428 | 789 | 167 | 318 | 22 | 12 | 351 | 108 | +6 | -2 | +0 | -4 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 572 | 517 | 123 | 33 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 189 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 238 | 305 | 387 | 691 | 149 | 337 | 33 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 623 | 545 | 136 | 28 | 6 | 14 | 66 | 149 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 250 | 339 | 400 | 739 | 150 | 315 | 24 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 572 | 517 | 123 | 33 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 189 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 238 | 305 | 387 | 691 | 149 | 337 | 33 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 623 | 545 | 136 | 28 | 6 | 14 | 66 | 149 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 250 | 339 | 400 | 739 | 150 | 315 | 24 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CWS | 100% | 380 | 335 | 79 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 85 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 237 | 323 | 374 | 697 | 137 | 291 | 22 | 10 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +8 | 0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | CWS | 100% | 272 | 240 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 61 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 324 | 377 | 701 | 138 | 292 | 22 | 10 | 315 | 98 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +6 | 0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CWS | 82% | 603 | 530 | 129 | 24 | 5 | 16 | 61 | 134 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 242 | 328 | 395 | 723 | 153 | 292 | 22 | 10 | 323 | 105 | +4 | +1 | +2 | -4 | +13 | 1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 82% | 580 | 510 | 126 | 23 | 4 | 18 | 59 | 129 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 331 | 410 | 741 | 165 | 292 | 22 | 10 | 330 | 109 | +6 | +1 | +2 | -3 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 82% | 560 | 492 | 121 | 22 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 126 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 244 | 330 | 407 | 737 | 163 | 292 | 22 | 10 | 328 | 108 | +6 | +1 | +2 | -3 | +12 | 1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 82% | 545 | 479 | 116 | 21 | 4 | 16 | 55 | 123 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 242 | 328 | 402 | 730 | 160 | 291 | 23 | 10 | 326 | 106 | +4 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +12 | 1.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 82% | 530 | 466 | 112 | 20 | 4 | 15 | 54 | 121 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 325 | 396 | 721 | 156 | 289 | 23 | 10 | 322 | 104 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +11 | 1.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 82% | 515 | 453 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 52 | 120 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 321 | 388 | 709 | 151 | 287 | 23 | 10 | 317 | 101 | +0 | -0 | -1 | -3 | +11 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB MLE | CWS | 82% | 501 | 441 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 50 | 118 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 316 | 377 | 694 | 145 | 284 | 24 | 10 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB MLE | CWS | 82% | 487 | 432 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 48 | 117 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 310 | 364 | 674 | 138 | 280 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CWS | 82% | 494 | 436 | 107 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 50 | 110 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 243 | 329 | 399 | 727 | 155 | 293 | 22 | 10 | 325 | 105 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +11 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 82% | 476 | 420 | 104 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 48 | 106 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 246 | 332 | 413 | 745 | 167 | 293 | 22 | 10 | 331 | 109 | +5 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +10 | 1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 82% | 459 | 404 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 103 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 245 | 331 | 411 | 741 | 165 | 293 | 22 | 10 | 330 | 108 | +5 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 82% | 447 | 394 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 101 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 329 | 406 | 734 | 162 | 292 | 23 | 10 | 327 | 106 | +3 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 82% | 435 | 384 | 93 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 100 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 241 | 326 | 399 | 725 | 158 | 290 | 23 | 10 | 323 | 104 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 82% | 422 | 373 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 98 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 322 | 391 | 713 | 153 | 288 | 23 | 10 | 319 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB CTX | CWS | 82% | 411 | 363 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 97 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 317 | 380 | 697 | 147 | 285 | 24 | 10 | 313 | 97 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB CTX | CWS | 82% | 399 | 354 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 96 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 311 | 367 | 678 | 140 | 281 | 24 | 10 | 305 | 91 | -4 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +9 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3908 | 3451 | 825 | 152 | 28 | 108 | 394 | 883 | 38 | 22 | 8 | 239 | 324 | 393 | 717 | 154 | 289 | 23 | 10 | 320 | 102 | +9 | +1 | +1 | -25 | +85 | 7.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 137 | 25 | 5 | 18 | 66 | 147 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 239 | 324 | 394 | 717 | 155 | 289 | 23 | 10 | 320 | 102 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | 1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5788 | 5105 | 1226 | 236 | 42 | 153 | 570 | 1387 | 63 | 52 | 24 | 240 | 324 | 393 | 717 | 153 | 298 | 24 | 10 | 319 | 102 | +11 | +2 | +2 | -31 | +107 | 9.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 138 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 156 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 241 | 325 | 394 | 719 | 154 | 300 | 24 | 10 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 132 PAwOBA .398 → .351 (−46)K% 24.2% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 29.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 9.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.72% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .398 → .351; ISO .180 → .145; BABIP .408 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AABirmingham Barons · 126 PAwOBA .441 → .383 (−58)K% 25.4% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.40% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 11.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 23.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 6.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 3.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 7.36% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .441 → .383; ISO .293 → .263; BABIP .385 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 290 PAwOBA .345 → .278 (−66)K% 24.1% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.14% | ÷0.955 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.03% | ÷0.949 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.65% | ÷0.942 | ×0.870 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 20.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.24% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 7.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.045 | ×0.850 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.923 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.20% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 88, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .345 → .278; ISO .185 → .155; BABIP .328 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 143 PAwOBA .340 → .317 (−23)K% 28.7% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.67% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.79% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 6.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.62% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 23.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.48% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 15.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .340 → .317; ISO .144 → .140; BABIP .398 → .410. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 84 PAwOBA .391 → .340 (−51)K% 22.6% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.62% | ÷1.009 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 26.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 7.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.853 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.63% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 118, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .391 → .340; ISO .188 → .174; BABIP .360 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .