Kyle Stowers
LF Miami Marlins| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAABAL | 264 | .240/.328/.555 | 18 | 0 | 90 | — | .203/.270/.435 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLBMIA | 209 | .208/.269/.333 | 3 | 0 | 77 | -1.2 | |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBMIA | 457 | .288/.372/.544 | 25 | 5 | 160 | 3.7 | |
| 2026 | 28 | MLBMIA | 512 | .239/.332/.459 | 21 | 1 | 126 | 2.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBMIA | 431 | .235/.318/.448 | 18 | 3 | 122 | 1.7 | |
| 2028PROJ98% MLB | 30 | MLBMIA | 408 | .231/.314/.439 | 17 | 1 | 119 | 1.2 | |
| 2029PROJ98% MLB | 31 | MLBMIA | 389 | .226/.308/.428 | 16 | 1 | 114 | 0.9 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 93 | 81 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 272 | 366 | 407 | 773 | 136 | 413 | 34 | 13 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 276 | 237 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 17 | 34 | 84 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 283 | 380 | 561 | 941 | 278 | 362 | 30 | 12 | 407 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 161 | 131 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 275 | 406 | 496 | 902 | 221 | 414 | 34 | 17 | 398 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 98 | 91 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 306 | 418 | 724 | 165 | 339 | 30 | 5 | 322 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 407 | 349 | 92 | 29 | 3 | 19 | 45 | 104 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 264 | 361 | 527 | 888 | 264 | 317 | 26 | 11 | 383 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 33 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 152 | 67 | 218 | 111 | 36 | 9 | 118 | -34 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.8 | |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 283 | 233 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 40 | 76 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 245 | 369 | 511 | 880 | 266 | 278 | 27 | 14 | 382 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 20 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 550 | 1.056 | 1.606 | 556 | 462 | 10 | 10 | 672 | 264 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 209 | 192 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 269 | 333 | 603 | 125 | 319 | 35 | 6 | 271 | 77 | -6 | -0 | -5 | -5 | +5 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 264 | 229 | 55 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 26 | 66 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 328 | 555 | 883 | 314 | 247 | 25 | 10 | 374 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 457 | 399 | 115 | 21 | 3 | 25 | 48 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 288 | 372 | 544 | 916 | 256 | 356 | 27 | 11 | 395 | 160 | +33 | +1 | -3 | -5 | +10 | 3.7 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 512 | 447 | 107 | 27 | 4 | 21 | 52 | 161 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 239 | 332 | 459 | 791 | 219 | 322 | 31 | 10 | 348 | 126 | +16 | -0 | -0 | -6 | +11 | 2.1 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 19 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 176 | 440 | 273 | 32 | 5 | 218 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1309 | 1159 | 287 | 63 | 10 | 52 | 121 | 401 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 248 | 329 | 454 | 783 | 206 | 330 | 31 | 9 | 345 | 119 | +30 | +0 | -8 | -25 | +28 | 2.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 93 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 301 | 329 | 630 | 94 | 400 | 42 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 276 | 248 | 56 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 104 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 226 | 299 | 399 | 698 | 173 | 335 | 38 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 161 | 141 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 74 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 206 | 300 | 362 | 662 | 156 | 365 | 46 | 11 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 98 | 91 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 306 | 418 | 724 | 165 | 339 | 30 | 5 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 407 | 363 | 86 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 123 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 237 | 311 | 441 | 752 | 204 | 303 | 30 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 33 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 152 | 67 | 218 | 111 | 36 | 9 | 118 | -34 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.8 | |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 283 | 243 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 93 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 193 | 297 | 379 | 676 | 185 | 241 | 33 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 20 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 421 | 450 | 947 | 1.397 | 526 | 371 | 15 | 5 | 559 | 264 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 209 | 192 | 41 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 274 | 344 | 618 | 130 | 319 | 35 | 6 | 281 | 77 | -6 | -0 | -5 | -5 | +5 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 264 | 237 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 74 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 270 | 435 | 705 | 232 | 216 | 28 | 7 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 457 | 402 | 119 | 23 | 3 | 26 | 45 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 296 | 374 | 562 | 936 | 266 | 356 | 27 | 10 | 405 | 160 | +33 | +1 | -3 | -5 | +10 | 3.7 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 512 | 452 | 111 | 29 | 4 | 22 | 47 | 161 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 330 | 473 | 804 | 228 | 322 | 31 | 9 | 354 | 126 | +16 | -0 | -0 | -6 | +11 | 2.1 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 19 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 176 | 440 | 252 | 37 | 5 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 530 | 474 | 104 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 218 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 219 | 298 | 371 | 669 | 152 | 360 | 41 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 530 | 449 | 125 | 23 | 1 | 27 | 73 | 171 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 278 | 385 | 514 | 900 | 236 | 386 | 32 | 14 | 394 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 454 | 108 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 36 | 152 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 238 | 308 | 432 | 740 | 194 | 315 | 30 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 505 | 440 | 115 | 33 | 4 | 22 | 50 | 133 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 261 | 350 | 505 | 855 | 243 | 322 | 26 | 10 | 371 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 336 | 292 | 57 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 34 | 108 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 195 | 292 | 384 | 676 | 188 | 243 | 32 | 10 | 298 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 336 | 281 | 68 | 10 | 1 | 20 | 45 | 90 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 242 | 358 | 498 | 857 | 256 | 274 | 27 | 13 | 373 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 429 | 89 | 26 | 3 | 16 | 31 | 148 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 207 | 272 | 394 | 666 | 186 | 269 | 31 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 473 | 421 | 95 | 27 | 3 | 21 | 39 | 140 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 302 | 454 | 756 | 228 | 278 | 30 | 8 | 329 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 457 | 402 | 119 | 23 | 3 | 26 | 45 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 296 | 374 | 562 | 936 | 266 | 365 | 27 | 10 | 405 | 160 | +33 | +1 | -3 | -5 | +10 | 3.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB RAW | Miami Marlins | — | 457 | 399 | 115 | 21 | 3 | 25 | 48 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 288 | 372 | 544 | 916 | 256 | 356 | 27 | 11 | 395 | 160 | +33 | +1 | -3 | -5 | +10 | 3.7 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 531 | 469 | 113 | 29 | 4 | 22 | 48 | 168 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 326 | 461 | 786 | 220 | 324 | 32 | 9 | 348 | 122 | +14 | -0 | -0 | -6 | +12 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 531 | 464 | 110 | 27 | 4 | 21 | 53 | 167 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 330 | 448 | 778 | 211 | 320 | 31 | 10 | 343 | 122 | +14 | -0 | -0 | -6 | +12 | 2.0 |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 530 | 472 | 104 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 218 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 220 | 298 | 373 | 671 | 153 | 356 | 41 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 454 | 108 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 36 | 152 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 238 | 308 | 432 | 740 | 194 | 310 | 30 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 336 | 293 | 57 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 34 | 108 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 195 | 292 | 382 | 674 | 188 | 236 | 32 | 10 | 298 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 432 | 89 | 26 | 3 | 16 | 31 | 148 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 272 | 391 | 663 | 185 | 261 | 31 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 457 | 404 | 119 | 23 | 3 | 26 | 45 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 295 | 374 | 559 | 933 | 265 | 356 | 27 | 10 | 405 | 160 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 531 | 467 | 113 | 29 | 4 | 22 | 48 | 168 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 242 | 326 | 463 | 788 | 221 | 320 | 32 | 9 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 432 | 89 | 26 | 3 | 16 | 31 | 148 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 272 | 391 | 663 | 185 | 261 | 31 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 457 | 404 | 119 | 23 | 3 | 26 | 45 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 295 | 374 | 559 | 933 | 265 | 356 | 27 | 10 | 405 | 160 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 531 | 467 | 113 | 29 | 4 | 22 | 48 | 168 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 242 | 326 | 463 | 788 | 221 | 320 | 32 | 9 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 100% | 485 | 430 | 105 | 24 | 4 | 22 | 44 | 144 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 327 | 471 | 798 | 227 | 311 | 30 | 9 | 349 | 122 | +13 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +11 | 1.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 100% | 431 | 382 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 39 | 128 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 318 | 448 | 766 | 213 | 298 | 30 | 9 | 336 | 122 | +11 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +9 | 1.7 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 98% | 416 | 368 | 89 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 38 | 125 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 323 | 462 | 785 | 221 | 308 | 30 | 9 | 344 | 119 | +9 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIA | 98% | 397 | 352 | 83 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 121 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 317 | 450 | 767 | 215 | 303 | 30 | 9 | 337 | 114 | +7 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB MLE | MIA | 98% | 374 | 332 | 75 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 115 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 309 | 435 | 744 | 206 | 296 | 31 | 9 | 327 | 108 | +3 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB MLE | MIA | 98% | 337 | 300 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 106 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 300 | 415 | 715 | 196 | 287 | 31 | 9 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 98% | 408 | 361 | 84 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 123 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 314 | 439 | 753 | 208 | 295 | 30 | 9 | 331 | 119 | +9 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIA | 98% | 389 | 345 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 35 | 118 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 308 | 428 | 737 | 202 | 290 | 30 | 9 | 325 | 114 | +7 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB CTX | MIA | 98% | 367 | 326 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 113 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 301 | 413 | 714 | 194 | 284 | 31 | 9 | 316 | 108 | +3 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB CTX | MIA | 98% | 330 | 293 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 104 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 292 | 395 | 687 | 184 | 275 | 32 | 9 | 305 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2803 | 2484 | 580 | 128 | 19 | 111 | 254 | 859 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 233 | 316 | 434 | 750 | 201 | 307 | 31 | 9 | 331 | 110 | +49 | +0 | -18 | -41 | +61 | 5.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 135 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 59 | 199 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 234 | 316 | 436 | 752 | 201 | 308 | 31 | 9 | 331 | 110 | +11 | +0 | -4 | -9 | +14 | 1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4787 | 4254 | 996 | 228 | 29 | 195 | 416 | 1514 | 76 | 27 | 13 | 234 | 314 | 439 | 752 | 205 | 311 | 32 | 9 | 331 | 110 | +61 | +1 | -18 | -46 | +71 | 7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 135 | 31 | 4 | 26 | 56 | 206 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 312 | 436 | 748 | 202 | 311 | 32 | 9 | 331 | 110 | +12 | +0 | -4 | -9 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 19 PAwOBA .213 → .179 (−34)K% 31.6% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 4.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 25.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .213 → .179; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 264 PAwOBA .371 → .301 (−69)K% 25.0% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.85% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.27% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×0.978 | ×1.018 | 11.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.82% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | ×1.018 | 8.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | ×1.018 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.04% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 7.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .371 → .301; ISO .314 → .242; BABIP .247 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 283 PAwOBA .377 → .300 (−77)K% 26.9% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.86% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.13% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.12% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.11% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 17.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.73% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.83% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 7.87% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .377 → .300; ISO .266 → .196; BABIP .278 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 20 PAwOBA .652 → .559 (−93)K% 10.0% → 13.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.986 | ×1.310 | — | — | 13.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷1.037 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 25.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 17.70% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .652 → .559; ISO .556 → .520; BABIP .462 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 407 PAwOBA .376 → .322 (−54)K% 25.6% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.55% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.97% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.73% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×1.048 | 17.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.048 | 10.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×1.048 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.76% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.87% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .376 → .322; ISO .264 → .214; BABIP .317 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABowie Baysox · 276 PAwOBA .398 → .306 (−93)K% 30.4% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.32% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 8.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.88% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 22.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.80% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 8.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.07% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .398 → .306; ISO .278 → .186; BABIP .362 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 161 PAwOBA .385 → .292 (−93)K% 34.2% → 46.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.16% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 46.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.91% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.95% | ÷1.026 | ×0.910 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 26.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.21% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 7.33% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .385 → .292; ISO .221 → .159; BABIP .414 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 93 PAwOBA .341 → .277 (−64)K% 34.4% → 42.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.41% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.69% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 34.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 3.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.46% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .341 → .277; ISO .136 → .096; BABIP .413 → .400. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).